Making a Case for Case- based Reasoningqyang/Docs/2001/cai01.pdf · 2003. 8. 8. · Solution: case...
Transcript of Making a Case for Case- based Reasoningqyang/Docs/2001/cai01.pdf · 2003. 8. 8. · Solution: case...
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 1
Making a Case for Case-based Reasoning
Qiang YangSimon Fraser University
http://www.cs.sfu.ca/~qyang
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 2
The Setting
The mission: NSERC industry chair programThe problemElevator testThe methodology
Application domainResearch problem
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 3
The Problem
Rogers cable-TV has hundreds of customer service representatives (CSR’s) who solve customers’ cable-TV and internet problems on the phone (call center).If a problem cannot be solved, Rogers must send out a truck to customer’s site --> truck roll.Truck rolls, and training, are expensive!
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 4
Problem Resolution Example
Customer: “my VCR is not working”CSR “do you have a recording problem”Customer: “yes. I cannot record channel 13”CSR: “first, turn your TV to channel 3. Now tell me what you see on your TV screen”Customer: “I see the music channel”CSR: “OK, now change to channel 13 through the remote…, finally, unplug and then plugthe TV”
Customer: “OK, problem solved”
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 5
Domain Problem
Problem: cache and re-use the knowledge through small and focused databases and interactive retrievalRequirements: no formal domain model, knowledge change at fast rate, knowledge highly typicalSolution: case based reasoning
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 6
Case RepresentationCase name: VCR not taping required channels
Description: most likely, VCR hookup problemsQuestions: “Does direct hookup of VCR help solve the prob?”
Solution:1. Check that account is enabled for required
channels2. Check that sub has required equipment, and is
following correct recording procedures3. If problem continues, advise that the VCR is faulty
and should be examined
Multimedia attachment
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 7
Case Based Reasoning Cycle
• Create • Maintain• Retrieve• Revise??
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 8
System Demo
CaseAdvisor is available at http://www.cs.sfu.ca/~isa/isaresearch.html#systems
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 9
Problem 1: Unstructured Cases
Much of knowledge is stored in flat files (Text, Html, Etc)
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 10
Semi-structured Cases
In help desk applications, knowledge is distributed among different data sources
User manualsDatabase recordsHTML files
Cases are in semi-structured format: <attributes, problem, solution, links…>Changes are often incremental
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 11
Two Types of Cases
Structured CasesCase Id: 10056Make: HondaModel: CivicYear: 1997Price: $17 000Number of Doors: 2Engine Location: RearEngine Size: 420ELProblem: Engine stallingValidation: Condition of fuel injector.Solution: Clean fuel injector.
Unstructured CasesCase Name: Income FundsCase Solution: Income funds can be
considered a core holding for almost all mutual fund investors. These mutual funds provide investoreswith a regular streeam of income, plus the potential for long-term growth. Thse are also known as “fixed income” funds. They include government bonds, corporate bonds and mortgages. The funds can also hold very short-term securitesknown as money market instruments. Because bonds pay interest, value tied to interest rates.
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 12
Information Retrieval
Task: detect cases that are similar in contentInformation Retrieval (IR):
remove stop wordsstem remaining termscollapse terms using thesaurusbuild inverted indexextract key words - build key word indexextract key phrases - build key phrase index
Casebase
Keyword Extraction
RedundancyDetection
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 13
Keyword and Feature Classification
Case Notation (P, Q, S are sets of keywords)
Problem Descriptions: PSolution Qualifications: QSolutions: S
Case<P, Q, S> means given(Q) and do(S) => solved(P)
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 14
Subsumption Rules
Case 1 subsumes Case 2 ifRule: P1 >= P2, Q1 <= Q2, S1 <= S2Case 1 can solve all problems that Case 2 solvesCase 1 requires fewer preconditions and is more efficient
Removing Case 2 does not affect the coverage of the case base!
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 15
Subsumption Example
• Case 2Problem: fever
Qualification: adult
Solution: take 2 Tylenol,
2 aspirin
• Case 1Problem: fever,
headacheQualification: adultSolution: take 2
Tylenol
➨ Case 1 subsumes case 2- Case 2 may be redundant, a candidate for removal
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 16
Empirical TestingCaseAdvisor Redundancy Detection Module
• 210 cases generated from cable-TV domain
• 5 separate authors
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2003/8/8 Problem 1: Unstructurd Cases 17
Problem 1: Unstructured Cases
With Kersti Racine, MSc.ICCBR’97IEEE TKDE 2001
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 18
Problem 2: Case-base Coverage Problem
Lots of cases are repetitive, small variations of one anther
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 19
Maintenance PoliciesGiven:- a large data base Z of (prob,sol) pairs- a constant K, the final size of a case base- a similarity metric defined by adaptation costs.- a frequency of problem occurrencesFind a case base of size K with good competenceOptimal solution is NP-completeWant: good approximate algorithm
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 20
Coverage of Cases
Coverage(case) ={case’| Adaptable(case,case’)}Cases are classified into several classes:- Pivotal: not contained in the coverage of any other cases in the case base
- Auxiliary: its coverage is contained in the coverage of some other case in the case base
z x
c
a
b
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 21
Smyth and Keane’s Case Deletion Policy (IJCAI-95)
Deletion Policy:- Delete auxiliary cases first - Delete support and spanning cases- Delete pivotal cases
Until case base size is K (user defined size)
z b
an
a1
a2
However, deletion-basedpolicy can lose almost all coverage(set K=1, case-base={Z}coverage=1/(n+1)
...
...
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 22
Our Case-Addition Policy
1. Find the coverage N(x) of every problem x in database Z; case base X={};
3. Select a case from Z-X with the maximal benefitwith respect to N(X) and add it to X
4. Repeat step 3 until N(Z)-N(X) is empty or X has K elements
z b
an
a1
a2
...
...
selected
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 23
Case-Addition Policy
1
23
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 24
Competence Preserving Claim
Theorem: The case-addition policy produces a case base X such that the coverage of X is no less than 63% of the coverage of an optimal case base
Proof based on set-covering, also similar to one given by [Harinarayan, Rajaraman and Ullman 96] for data cube construction
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 25
How many cases are enough?
Let the size of database be n; size of case base be k;Let r=k/n be the ratioSuppose when adding cases into a case, the benefits decreases linearlyThen: coverage=r(2-r)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
rco
vera
ge
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 26
How to compute case-coverage?
Count the number of adaptation steps needed,State-based similarity metric for path planning:Dist(x, y) = min # of steps added/deleted from x to y
A
x
yE
BG FH
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2003/8/8 Problem 2: Coverage 27
Problem 2: Case-base Coverage Problem
Jun Zhu, MSc. IJCAI ’99Computational Intelligence Journal
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 28
Problem 3: Feature Weight Learning
Experts pay attention to some problem features more than others
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 29
Maintaining IndexesWeights to question-answers set by domain expert may be inaccurate, change over time
Adjust weights to refine case associations based on usage patterns
close the feedback loop
Different type of users have different preferences, usage behavior
agents vs. customers visiting web site
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 30
Architectural Changes
Two layer case baseThree Layer case base
Problem-Solution Layer
Feature-value layer
weights
Feature-value layer
Problem Context/Types
Solution Layer
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 31
A Video Rental Domain Ex
Actor=A1 Director = D2 Music = M12
Science Fic ActionComedy
Independence Day
TitanicStar Trek
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 32
Problem Resolution and LearningProblem Resolution and LearningCase List
Prob1Prob2Prob3Prob4Prob5
Prob. Desc:
ConfirmDisappr.Cancel
Possible Sol’nsSol’n 1:Sol’n 2:..........ConfirmDisappr.Cancel
Neural NetworkLearning algorithm
Confirm Problem Confirm SolutionWeb browser
Case Name:Problem:Solution:........................
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 33
BackBack--propagation Networkpropagation Networks1
So
Prob. Layer
,A) Layer
W2ij
W1ij
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5pb
u. Layer
scs2 s3 s4
∑+
=−
i
iijj Pw
eS 2
1
1
Pe
w QAjij i
i
=+
∑−1
11( , )
Step 1:l
Step 2:(Q
(Q,A)4(Q,A)1 (Q,A)2 (Q,A)3δ2 1j j j j jS S y S= − −( )( )∑ ⋅−=
ijiijjj wPP 22)1(1 δδ
Step 3: ijij Pw ⋅⋅=∆ 22 δη∆w Q Aij j i1 1= ⋅ ⋅η δ ( , )
(Q,A)a
yj:the target output
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 34
Test the Index Learning Module:
Rogers Cable-TV Case Base (30 Q/A)Video Rental Case Base (25 Q/A)UCI Data
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 35
Test Results
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 36
Training time: quadratic with CB-size
Average Running Time for Training Solutions of Individual Cases
4.87
38.38
65.63
121.13
149.25
303.08
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50 Cases 100 Cases 150 cases 200 Cases 250 Cases 300 CasesCase Base Size (cases)
Ave
rage
Run
ning
Tim
e (s
)
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2003/8/8Problem 3: Feature Weight
Learning 37
Problem 3: Feature Weight Learning
Zhong Zhang, Msc.IJCAI ’99International Journal of Information
Systems, Kluwer
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 38
Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval
In case-retrieval, experts usually ask a small number of key questions to find problems
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 39
RetrievalRetrieval Issues:-Given a set of candidate clusters that may share attributes-Find: A small set of attributes that can distinguish the clusters-Problem: similar to decision-tree construction
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 40
Information Theory
Information ( Entropy): given a probability distribution , information conveyed by this distribution is
Gain:
},...,,{ 21 nPPPP =
))log(...)log()log(()( 2211 nn ppppppPInfo +++−=
),()(),( TXInfoTInfoTXGain −=
)(),(1
i
m
i
i TInfoTTTXInfo ∑
=
−=
where
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 41
Cluster Retrieval ExampleAttribute 3:aAttribute 1:b
CBP2CBP5,CBP1,CBP4
Attribute 3
CBP1,CBP3 CBP2 CBP4 CBP3,
CBP4
ba dcbCBC ID Information Gain Ratio
1 2 8.722 4 6.993 3 4.154 1 0
Attribute 2
CBP3, CBP4CBP1, CBP2
CBP4, CBP5CBP1, CBP2
a bCBC ID
1 32 43 1
For CBP1 and CBP2
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 42
System Process
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 43
Ablation Study Evaluation
Precision = (1-n/10)if we set 10 to be the number of cases shown
Interactive Efficiency=
1. C12. C2…j1. Target…
1. C1’2. C2’…j2. Target…
1. C1’’2. C2’’…n. Target…
Q1……
Q2 Qc
allQQc
−1
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 44
Experimental Results
UCI Thyroid CB CA Cluster Info Gain Cluster+Info GainPrecision 0% 0% 45% 44%Interactive Efficiency 56% 58% 97% 96%Time (CPU sec) 448 4.3 62.3 17
UCI Mushroom CA Cluster Info Gain Cluster+Info GainPrecision 6% 83% 92% 92%Interactive Efficiency 59% 56% 92% 89%Time (CPU sec) 5374 29 201 10
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2003/8/8 Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval 45
Problem 4: Interactive Retrieval
Jing Wu, MSc. Canadian AI 2000Applied Intelligence Journal, 2001
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 46
Problem 5: Information Gathering and ActiveCBR
Lots of answers are available in various databases alreadyThus, no need to ask customers again!
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 47
A Typical Interactive-CBR Scenario
1. Agent: “What is your name and address?”Customer: “John, 9004 Lyra Place…”
2. Agent: “What is the nature of your problem?”Customer: “Fuzzy picture on Ch. 3”
3. Agent: “Let me check your payment status…OK, you are a paid customer.”4. Agent: “Let me check if there is an outage in your area…”5. Agent: “Has the problem occurred before?”
Customer: “Yes, but I can’t remember how it was fixed.”
6. Agent: “No outage. How many outlets do you have…”
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 48
A Typical Interactive-CBR Scenario
1. Agent: “What is your name and address?”Customer: “John, 9004 Lyra Place…”
2. Agent: “What is the nature of your problem?”Customer: “Fuzzy picture on Ch. 3”
3. Agent: “Let me check your payment status…OK, you are a paid customer.”4. Agent: “Let me check if there is an outage in your area…”5. Agent: “Has the problem occurred before?”
Customer: “Yes, but I can’t remember how it was fixed.”
6. Agent: “No outage. How many outlets do you have…”
Answered from outage database
Answered from Sensor Database
Answered from customer database
Answered from telephonenumber and customer database
Answered from problemhistory database
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 49
Related IssuesDecomposing composite questions/queries
Deciding on an order in which to ask questions
Has fuzzy picture problem occurred before?
Find customer ID
Find problem IDQuery DB: Select problems where...
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Problem 5: Information Gathering
Our Aim: Summary
To increase interactive efficiency (Aha and Breslow ‘97) through automated information gathering:
reduce the number of questions posed to customeranswer as many questions as possible by gathering information from on-line sourcesanswer first the questions which will most speed up diagnosis
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Problem 5: Information Gathering
System Processes
ProblemState
RetrievedCases
SolvedCase
Tested/RepairedCase
LearnedCase
StoredCases
Retrieve
Reus
eRet
ain
Extract theproblem state
Choose aninformation task
Task Selector
Task Planer
and Executor
GlobalKnowledgeSpace
Retain gatheredinformation
Plan and executeinformation task
Recycle
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 52
Key Idea:
Case Case Case
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 53
Key Idea:
Case Case Case
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Problem 5: Information Gathering
Step 1. Initial Retrieval
Initial retrieval by keywords in problem descriptionAdditional attributes focus retrieval through K-nearest neighbor searchRetrieved cases indicate hypothesesExample: Hypothesis: Parental control switch on
Attributes:problem description: poor reception of the cable signal 1.0channels affected: channel 50 0.7uses parental control: yes 0.8has cable box: yes 0.4outlets concerned: 1 0.3
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Problem 5: Information Gathering
Step 2. Generating Queries from Retrieved Cases
Select an attribute with high estimated utility as a query, based on the following two values:
Information Value the number of times the question appears in the candidate cases, the weights of the question in the candidate cases, and the ranks of the cases containing the question
Cost of evaluating the attributeScore of the attribute isSystem selects the attribute with the maximal value as the information task for subsequent planning
)(av
)(ac)()( acav −
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 56
Step 2: Query OrderingParental Control Case
Attribute Value Weight
Problem? Poor recep 1.00
Channels? 3-10 0.80
Local signal?
clear 0.95
Signal CaseScore = 80% Score = 90%
Attribute Value Weight
Problem? Poor recep 0.5
Channels? 50-52 0.1
parental control?
yes 1.0
V(Channels)=(0.8*0.8+0.9*0.1)=0.73V(local signal)=0.8*0.95=0.76V(parental control)=1.0*0.9=0.9
Information Value of attributes:
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 57
Step 2: Decomposing composite queries
Given: a library of information-task schemata
The schema is used to expand the information task into an AND-OR Tree
Use-parental-control :- Ask(customer)Use-parental-control :- Check-onlineCheck-online :- Query(account) and Query-data-sourceQuery-data-source :- Query(customer-profile)Query-data-source :- Query(work_log)
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Problem 5: Information Gathering
Example of AND-OR TreeCost=13
parental control switch?
get customeraccountnumber
check on-line
querydata source
Cost(AND-Node)=Max{Cost(Children-Node)}Cost(OR-Node) = Min{Cost(Children-Node)}Cost Algorithm: bottom-up
Cost=13
Cost=10
Cost=3query accounts Cost=10
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Problem 5: Information Gathering
Cost Models at Leaf Nodes
Defined or learned from databasecharacteristics
propagated up the task hierarchy
Costs includetime to access data sourcereliability of sourceintrusion (querying customer)
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2003/8/8 Problem 5: Information Gathering 60
Problem 5: Information Gathering and ActiveCBR
C. Carrick, Sheng Li, I. Abi-Zeid and L. Lamontagne
ICCBR ’99EWCBR ‘00International Journal of Knowledge and
Information Systems, Kluwer
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 61
Field test
Objective?Real-time problem solving Junior CSR trainingNew technology educationConsistent answers
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 62
Status
Rogers Cable Systems Ltd.Help DesksEducational Systems
Experimental testbedTool to learn about CBRCBR for software requirement engineeringOther uses
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2003/8/8 Canadian AI 2001, Invited Talk 63
Conclusions
Problem-driven research methodologiesCase-base maintenance main objective
Hard problemCBR without maintenance???
Case-adaptation practical?Future: Case mining