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![Page 1: Major Roles for Fossil Fuels in an Environmentally Constrained World Robert H. Williams Princeton University Sustainability in Energy Production and Utilization.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649d015503460f949d3fbc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Major Roles for Fossil Fuels in an Environmentally
Constrained WorldRobert H. WilliamsPrinceton University
Sustainability in Energy Production and Utilization in Brazil: The Next Twenty Years
Universidade Estadual de CampinasCampinas
Sao Paulo, Brazil 18-20 February 2002
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OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
• Climate change context to motivate considerations of:
--electricity + hydrogen economy
--relative roles of renewables and decarbonized fossil energy
• Prospects for geological storage of CO2
• H2 production technology, with focus on coal
• H2 costs as automotive fuel
• Is decarbonization of natural gas worthwhile?
• Conclusions and implications for Brazil
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CLIMATE CLIMATE CHALLENGE (IS92a “BAU” Scenario of IPCC)
Increase in global energy use/capita, 1997-2100: For primary energy up 2.0X ( 1/3 US level in 1997) For electricity up 2.6X (½ US level in 1997) For “fuels used directly” up 1.4X (¼ US level in 1997)
Global CO2 emissions:Total: 6.2 GtC (1997, actual, 37% coal) 20 GtC (2100, 88% coal)From electricity generation: 1.9 GtC (1997) 5 GtC (2100)From “fuels used directly”: 4.3 GtC (1997) 15 GtC (2100)
Cumulative emissions, 1990-2100: 1500 GtC
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Allowable Cumulative Carbon Emissions to Reach Various Targets
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Gt
C
WRE350a
WRE450a
WRE550a
WRE650a
WRE750a
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Renewables/Decarbonized Fossil Energy Competition, Carbon-Constrained World
For electricity: Renewables will be strong competitors for decarbonized fossil fuels—esp. wind (central station), PV (distributed, grid-connected) Electric storage problem “solved” at large scales (CAES) For fuels used directly (2/3 of CO2 emisions today):
Biomass--regionally important but limited global potential relative to challenge Poor near-term and long-term economic prospects for making H2 via water-splitting
(electrolysis or thermochemical cycles) from renewables—relative to H2 from fossil
fuels with CO2 removal and sequestration
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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON BIOMASS According to World Energy Assessment, long-term biomass energy potential ~ 100 – 300 EJ/y (for comparison: global primary energy use~ 400 EJ/y, 1997) Biomass contributions to energy in IS92a: ~ 130 EJ/y in 2050 (compared to 655 EJ/y from fossil fuels) ~ 205 EJ/y in 2100 (compared to 865 EJ/y from fossil fuels) Although it can make important regional contributions, biomass alone cannot adequately decarbonize fuels used directly to the extent needed to solve climate change problem
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Implications of Renewable/Fossil Energy Competition for Carbon Management
• No carbon problem if fossil fuels = conventional oil/NG• Most of climate change challenge posed by coal [and, to lesser
extent, unconventional oil (e.g., tar sands, heavy oils)] • Most of climate change challenge posed by “fuels used directly” and
will be severe even if electricity is 100% decarbonized in this century• But gasification-based H2 production/CO2 sequestration technologies
offer good prospects for decarbonizing low-quality fossil energy feedstocks at attractive costs
• Are there options for storing the CO2 byproduct of H2 production that are adequate to raise the decarbonization/CO2 sequestration strategy to the status of a major contender in the energy race to achieve near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases?
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OPTIONS FOR CO2 DISPOSAL
Deep Ocean Disposal (> 3 km) Most discussed option Reduces rapid transient CO2 buildup in atmosphere
Significantly reduces long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration (> 50%)
Many environmental concerns (e.g., ocean life impacts of pH changes, impacts of CO2
hydrate particles on benthic organisms, ecosystems)
Depleted Oil & Natural Gas Fields Large capacity (~ 500 GtC) Most secure option if original reservoir pressure not exceeded Some opportunities for enhanced oil/natural gas resource recovery Geographically limited option
Deep Beds of Unminable Coal CO2 injection can be used for enhanced methane recovery from unminable coal beds
CO2 will remain in place (adsorptivity of CO2 on coals much higher than for CH4)
Geographically limited option
Deep Saline Aquifers Deep saline aquifers (> 800 m) widely available geographically Enormous potential if closed aquifers with structural traps are not required Uncertainties about storage security, but time scales for reaching near-surface fresh-water aquifers are long (~ 2000 y)
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GLOBAL CAPACITY FOR CO2 STORAGE
IN DEEP SALINE AQUIFERS
If aquifers with structural traps are needed: ~ 50 GtC (C. Hendriks, Carbon Dioxide Removal from Coal-Fired Power Plants, Dept. ofScience, Technology, and Society, Utrecht University, The Netherlands, 1994) If large open aquifers with good top seals can also be used: Up to 2,700 GtC (IEA GHG R&D Programme) ~13,000 GtC (C. Hendriks, Carbon Dioxide Removal from Coal-Fired Power Plants, Dept. ofScience, Technology, and Society, Utrecht University, The Netherlands, 1994) For comparison: Projected emissions from fossil fuel burning, 1990-2100, IS92a: ~ 1500 GtC Reasonable target for sequestration, 21st century ~ 600 GtC
Carbon content of remaining exploitable fossil fuels (excluding methane hydrates): ~ 5,000 - 7,000 GtC
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EXPERIENCE WITH CO2 DISPOSAL
ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY: 74 projects worldwide; often profitable in mature oil-producing regions; 4% of US oil so produced—mostly using CO2 from
natural reservoirs piped up to 800 km, but Weyburn (Canada) uses 1.5 million tonnes/y of CO2 piped 300 km from North Dakota coal gasification plant
ENHANCED COAL BED METHANE RECOVERY: 1 commercial project in San Juan Basin (US)
ACID GAS DISPOSAL: 31 acid gas (H2S + CO2) disposal projects in Canada
TWO PROJECTS FOR AQUIFER DISPOSAL OF CO2 ASSOCIATED
WITH OFF-SHORE NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION:
Sleipner Project in North Sea (since 1996) Natuna Project in South China Sea (planned for 2005-2010)
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EXPERIENCE WITH & PLANS FOR AQUIFER CO2 DISPOSAL
AT LARGE SCALES
NG Field Firm CO2 in
gas (%)
Disposal Rate Destination of CO2
On-Stream
t CO2/y t C/y
Sleipner West, Norway, North Sea
Statoil($50-$80 million project)
9.5% 1 M 0.3 M Sleipner East, Utsira Formation
(800 m depth)
1996(20 y life)
Natuna, Indonesia,South China Sea
Pertamina & Exxon/Mobil
71% > 100 M > 30 M Two aquifers north of
Natuna field
~ 2005?
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CAN NEAR-ZERO GHG/AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS BE REALIZED AT ACCEPTABLE COST?
Plausibly yes, if H2 major energy carrier complementing electricity—
(CO2 recovery costs low in H2 manufacture)
Requirements: Large, widely available, secure, and environmentally acceptable storage capacity for CO2—geological storage options promising
Technology for manufacturing H2 from abundant fossil fuel sources
H2 competitive as energy carrier need technologies that:
—put high market value on H2 (e.g., fuel cells in transport)
—provide H2 at competitive costs
H2 must be produced centrally to minimize cost of CO2 disposal
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WHY COAL?
Coal resources abundant globally:
Recoverable coal ~ 200,000 EJ (580 y supply at current fossil energy use rate)
Recoverable natural gasConventional ~ 12,000 EJUnconventional ~ 33,000 EJ
Coal prices low [1997 NG price for US electric generators: 2.1 Xcoal price; projected (2020): 3.7 X coal price]; not volatile
Environmental issues need radical technological innovation
Gasification near-zero emissions of air pollutants/GHGs
Residual environmental, health, safety problems of coal mining
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MAKING H2 FROM FOSSIL FUELS
Begin with”Syngas” Production:
Oxygen-Blown Coal Gasification: Steam-Reforming of Natural Gas
CH0.82O0.07 + 0.47 O2 + 0.15 H2O CH4 + H2O CO + 3H2
0.56 H2 + 0.85 CO + 0.15 CO2
Followed by Syngas Cooling & Water-Gas Shift Reaction:
CO + H2O H2 + CO2,
Net Effect:
CH0.82O0.07 + 0.47 O2 + 1.00 H2O CH4 + 2 H2O CO2 + 4 H2
1.40 H2 + 1.00 CO2
Followed by CO2/H2 Separation via Physical or Chemical Process
HHV efficiency [(H2 output)/(Total primary fuel input)]:
~ 70% for coal ~ 80% for natural gas
Separated CO2 Can Be Disposed of at Relatively Low Incremental Cost
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H2 Production from Coal with CO2/H2S Cosequestration
Gas turbine
HRSG
High temp.WGS
reactor
Quench +scrubberGasifier
Airseparation
unit
Syngascooling
Low temp.WGS
reactor
Solventregeneration
Syngasexpander
steam
coal slurry
leansolvent
richsolvent
H2- andCO2-rich syngas
CO-richraw syngas
oxygen
air
CO2 + H2Sto storage
air
CO2-leanexhaustgases
CO2/H2Sdrying and
compression
CO2/H2Sphysical
absorption
N2 for NOx control
Steamturbine
Pressureswing
adsorption
H2 product
compressedpurge gas
Conventional hydrogen 2 (1-7-02)
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• With CO2 venting, cost of H2 from NG SMR always lower than H2 from coal
• But, even at today’s low NG prices (2.44 $/GJ), H2 from coal with CO2-sulfur co-sequestration is comparable to H2 from NG
• Note: 70 bar conventional technology is commercially available today
Hydrogen Cost vs. Carbon Tax
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Carbon Tax ($/tonne C)
Hyd
roge
n C
ost
($/G
J H
HV
)
Fig. L2ab
Coal, conventional technologyNatural gas, steam reforming
70 bar
CO2 venting
CO2 -sulfurco-sequestration
NG price:2.44 $/GJ HHV
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• At NG prices (3.4 $/GJ) likely to be typical 20 y from now, cost of H2 from coal with CO2-sulfur co-sequestration is significantly lower than H2 from NG SMR
Hydrogen Cost vs. Carbon Tax
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Carbon Tax ($/tonne C)
Hyd
roge
n C
ost
($/G
J H
HV
)
Fig. L2ac
Natural gas, steam reformingCoal, conventional technology
70 bar
CO2 venting
CO2 -sulfurco-sequestration
NG price:3.4 $/GJ HHV
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Consumer Fuel Costs for Gasoline ICE Cars and H2 Fuel Cell Cars(excluding retail fuel taxes)
Fuel cost (¢/liter, gasoline equivalent)
Cost of driving (¢/km)
Production cost
Cost to consumer
Gasoline ICE(6.7 l/100km)
H2 fuel cell car
(2.9 l/100 km ge)
Gasoline 23 30 2.0 -
H2 from coal,
CO2 vented
21 50 - 1.4
H2 from coal,
CO2 seq.
27 56 - 1.6
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Electricity Production via Coal IGCC with CO2/H2S Cosequestration
Gas turbine
HRSG
High temp.WGS
reactor
Quench +scrubberGasifier
Airseparation
unit
Syngascooling
Low temp.WGS
reactor
Solventregeneration
Syngasexpander
steam
coal slurry
leansolvent
richsolvent
H2- and CO2-rich syngas
CO-richraw syngas
oxygen
air
CO2 + H2Sto storage
air
CO2-leanexhaustgases
CO2/H2Sdrying and
compression
CO2/H2Sphysical
absorption
N2 for NOx control
H2-rich syngas
Conventional electricity 2 (1-7-02)
Steamturbine
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Carbon Tax Needed to Induce CO2 Sequestration
in the Production of H2 and Electricity
($/tC)
Energy Carrier Feedstock for Producing Energy Carrier
Natural Gas with CO2 Sequestered
Coal with CO2:
Sequestered Cosequestered
H2 ~ 100 ~ 50 ~ 30
Electricity ~ 250 ~ 80 ~ 50
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Remaining Global NG & Conv. Oil Resources
Energy Resources (103 EJ)
Carbon Content (GtC)
Low Med High Low Med High
Conv. oil 9.4 11.1 13.7 179 211 260
Conv. NG 8.7 11.9 16.5 118 162 224
Subtotal 18.1 23.0 30.2 297 373 484
Unconv. NG 33.2 452
Total 56.2 824
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CONCLUSIONS
• Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 at 450-550 ppmv requires decarbonizing both electricity and fuels used directly.
• Although there are many uncertainties, potential CO2 storage capacity in geological media is probably large enough to make fossil fuels decarbonization/CO2 sequestration a major energy option for a GHG-emissions-constrained world.
• In electricity markets renewables and decarbonized energy systems will be strong competitors; renewables might well win the economic race to near-zero emissions.
• Biofuels will be regionally important but the global potential is inadequate for biofuels to make more than a modest contribution in addressing the climate change challenge posed by fuels used directly.
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CONCLUSTIONS (continued)
• H2 will probably be needed as a major energy carrier in markets that usefuels directly.
• By a wide margin, the least costly route to providing H2 in a GHG-emissions-constrained world will be from carbonaceous feedstocks.
• Making H2 from coal will probably be less costly than making it from NGat typical feedstock prices in 2020 timeframe.
• If a concerted effort can be directed to decarbonizing coal, it might not benecessary to decarbonize NG energy systems.
• The production of H2 from water via electrolysis or complex thermochemical
cycles will play at most marginal roles in providing H2 unless geological
sequestration of CO2 turns out to be a fatally flawed idea.
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IMPLICATIONS FOR BRAZIL
• Prospect of H2 economy as necessary major component of climate mitigation strategy has major implications for all countries.
• Brazil has opportunity to support demonstration projects for H2 fueled vehicles with H2 derived from offpeak hydropower.
• Additional H2 supplies might be provided by gasification of petroleum residuals at refineries—e.g., petcoke gasification at Brazilian refineries could support more than 1 million fuel cell cars.
• Brazil is one of few places where biomass-derived H2 might eventually become major option—and if CO2 coproduct were sequestered (so that CO2
emissions would be negative), Brazil could thereby plausibly sell profitably emission rights to the atmosphere under a global cap-and-trade regime.
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Evolving CO2 Plume Front in a Vertical Cross Section
of a Disposal AquiferModeling from: Eric Lindeberg, Escape of CO2 from aquifers, Energy
Conversion and Management, 38 Suppl: 235-240.
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Escape of CO2 from an Aquifer with a Spill Point
Located 8 km from the InjectorModeling from: Eric Lindeberg, Escape of CO2 from aquifers, Energy
Conversion and Management, 38 Suppl: 235-240.