Major policy related results from the MEGAPOLI project · Major policy related results from the...

Major policy related results from the MEGAPOLI project-Jochen Theloke

Major policy related results from the MEGAPOLI

project

Jochen Theloke, J. Roos, U. Kugler, T. Kampffmeyer, M. Uzbasich, S.

Torras-Ortiz, A. Kuhn, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout

Presentation on the Air Quality Conference in Athens

21. March 2012


Policy related questions to MEGAPOLI

• Can be meet the targets of the European air quality legislation by the

current and currently planned measures and policy options on a short term

time scale and is it possible to meet the current thresholds with additional

feasible measures?

• Which additional policy strategies and abatement measures on mid and

long term scale are available to reduce health risks, ecosystem damages

and climate change impacts? What are the costs and benefits of these

measures, beyond the impacts of the baseline development?

• What are the options and effects of long term city planning and urban

management in the long run (including changes in the number of

inhabitants and working places)?


Approach

Development of mitigation and policy options

Distinction between midterm options and measures (until 2030) & long

term options (to be used after 2030 – time horizon until 2050)

structural changes in future => Analyzing of urban planning scenario

approaches

Developing and applying methodologies for assess these options

Compile a reference scenario for future years

Apply a full chain approach

Ranking the options for identifying the most cost efficient options

(Health Impacts avoidance costs + Crop damage avoidance costs + material

damage avoidance costs + CO2 avoidance costs) [Euro2010])

-

((Measure costs +Utility Losses) [Euro2010])


Scenario definition and assumptions

Reduction of EU greenhouse gas emissions by 30 % until 2020 and

50 % until 2050 compared to 1990, for Germany 56%

Reduction of emissions in the ETS sector by 34 % until 2020

compared to 2005

Increasing production of electricity from renewables

Minimum market shares for hybrid electric, battery electric and plug-in

hybrid electric vehicles based on national targets

Implementation of EU directive 2009/28/EC requesting a minimum

quota of renewable transport fuels in transport final energy

consumption (10 % in 2020)


Scenario Key Assumptions 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Development of economy and population in the EU-27

Population Mill. 488 496 495 487 472

GDP 1012€2007 11,7 15 17,8 20,8 24,4

Av. annual growth % 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6

Energy prices (free boarder)

Crude oil $2007/bbl 55 88 100 106 109

Natural gas €2007/GJ 4,3 7,1 7,9 8,3 8,5

Coal €2007/GJ 1,9 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9

Households and living space

Number of dwellings Mill. 197,9 260,2 273,6 267,9 259,8

Number of buildings Mill. 114,9 147,2 154,4 156,1 152

Transport demand

Passenger transport (excl.

aviation) Bill. pkm 5826 6451 6742 6884 6914

Aviation PJ 2066 2947 3399 3634 3786

Freight transport Bill. tkm 2538 3263 3745 3992 4117

Renewable Electricity

Min. electricity quantities

according to national policies in

the EU-27

REF [TWh] 455 770 835 855 895

450ppm

[TWh] 455 995 1330 1510 1785

Potentials of renewable electricity

generation

in the EU-27

TWh 455 1700 2460 2880 3310


Final energy consumption by fuel (EU27+NO+CH)

Major policy related results from the MEGAPOLI project-Jochen Theloke 7

NOx-Emissions in Europe (EU27 + NO + CH)


PM2.5-Emissions in Europe (EU27 + NO + CH)


Considered Measures and policy options

• Energy sector (LCP) =>2 measures

• Energy sector (Small combustion) =>5 measures

• Industry => 4 measures

• On-road => 9 measures

• Offroad => 4 measures

=> 24 measures have been considered for the 4 MC (Paris,

London, Po Valley and Rhine-Ruhr-area)

Pollutants: GHG, NOx, SO2, NMVOC, NH3, CO, PM10, PM2.5

Distinction between measures with impact specific to the MC

areas and measures which affect the whole European domain


Involvement of cities

An interview protocol, including a questionnaire, for interaction with

cities was drawn up.

The interview covered three main topics:

● Urban development scenarios,

● Emission data for air pollution and greenhouse gases,

● Scenarios for air pollution and greenhouse gases.

There were considerable difficulties in finding urban development

scenarios due to:

● Complexities of responsibilities of authorities at different levels,

● Political sensitivities regarding long-term developments,

● Long-term visions tending to be abstract and difficult to translate in

concrete changes of urban (infra)structure.


Results from the Questionnaire evaluation

11

City Urban development

scenarios

Emission data

for GHG and AP

Emission

scenarios

London yes yes yes

Paris No yes Not identified

Po

Valley For some city areas Yes (but

heterogenic)

Yes (2020)

(Lombardia

Region)

Rhine-

Ruhr

No, but some studies about

urban development

identified; population

development scenarios

yes Not identified


Methodology and tool for

impact assessment

12

The Full Chain Approach


Ecosense Approach

Estimate the damages to human health, ecosystems, and materials

caused by the emissions of the city by using the results of the

atmospheric modelling and applying concentration-response

relationships;

Express the impacts of climate change caused by the emissions of the

city (avoidance costs = mitigation costs for GHG)

Aggregate the different health endpoints into DALY (disability

adjusted life years) or QUALY (quality adjusted life years);

Convert the aggregated endpoints and the impacts on climate change

into a common monetary unit to allow comparisons and cost-benefit

analyses.

Result: Ranking of single measures based on specific cost

efficiency


Emission

Delta

Result:

Concentrations

Regional: EMEP

50 km x 50 km

Case-

Scenario Base-

Scenario

SR-Matrices

Ecosense Approach


Pollutant

Concentration in

µg/m3

The typically higher pollutant levels in urban areas for

most pollutants can be referred as urban increment, i.e.,

the difference between regional and urban background

pollutant concentrations

Rural background

Urban background


rurali

avgUE

UEi

iiurbani CuA

EC

where

Ci urban = Urban increment of pollutant i.

EiUE = Total emission of pollutant i within the urban entity in tons.

AUE = Urban entity area in km2.

uavg = Urban entity average wind speed in m/s.

Ci rural = Rural background concentration of pollutant i in µg/m3

ωi, φi, and γi = Multiple-regression parameters for pollutant i.

Urban increment

developed by Torras Ortiz (2010), USTUTT

Torras Ortiz, S. (2010). "A hybrid dispersion modelling approach for quantifying and assessing air quality in Germany with

focus on urban background and kerbside concentrations," submitted Doctoral Thesis, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart.

A model to estimate the urban increment (i.e., the difference between regional and

urban background pollutant concentrations) was included in the analysis within

MEGAPOLI. The modelling approach is based on a multiple regression analysis with

the following components:


Reference Scenario -DALYs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Rhine-Ruhr Paris Area LondonArea

Po Valley Europe

10

3 D

AL

Y

103 DALYs reference scenario

2030 2050

DALY = Disability Adjusted Life Year,

● A measure of the population of level burden of disease (BoD), loss of fully healthy life due to anything from epidemics of common cold to sudden deaths from airplane accidents

● The use of DALY has been promoted by WHO for the comparison of different health risks


DALY = Disability Adjusted Life Year,

● A measure of the population level of burden of disease (BoD), loss of fully healthy life due to anything from epidemics of common cold to sudden deaths from airplane accidents

● The use of DALY has been promoted by WHO for the comparison of different health risks

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Avoided DALYs (Paris Area) order by 2030 values

2030 2050

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Avoided DALYs (Po Valley) order by 2030 values

2030 2050


Ranking of the measures with the most avoided DALYs

(disability adjusted life years)

Replacement of solid fuels fired small combustion plants with efficient

combustion techniques & switch to gaseous fuels

Energy-efficient modernization of old buildings

Combined climate protection measures in cement industry

Switch to renewable heat (solar, heat pumps) supply in residential sector

Expansion of district heating networks

Kerosene tax for aviation


Results – Measure SCP003

-energy-efficient modernisation of old buildings-


Ranking of the measures with the best cost efficiency

for Paris in 2050


Coke dry quenching

Use of biofuels

Promotion of low emission vehicles




Ranking of the measures with the best cost efficiency

for Po Valley in 2050

Coke dry quenching

Use of biofuels

Kerosene tax for aviation


Combined climate protection measures in cement industry

Expansion of district heating network


Answers from MEGAPOLI (1) Can be meet the targets of the European air quality legislation the current and

currently planned measures and policy options on a short term time scale and

is it possible to meet the current thresholds with additional feasible measures?

• On a short term time horizon even with additional measures it will not be

possible to fulfill the requirements for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5)

under all meteorological conditions in all areas of the EU.

• An overview about the grade of fulfilling the National Emission Ceiling

(NEC) directive (2001/81/EC) indicates that several countries will not meet

the NOx and the NMVOC ceiling and 2 countries have difficulties to meet

the NH3 ceiling.


Answers to MEGAPOLI (2)

Which additional policy strategies and abatement measures on mid and long

term scale are available to reduce health risks, ecosystem damages and

climate change impacts? What are the costs and benefits of these measures,

beyond the impacts of the baseline development?

The most efficient measures for improving air quality and climate change

impacts in 1st level MCs on a cost-efficient base are the following:


Coke dry quenching

Use of biofuels





Answers to MEGAPOLI (3)

What are the options and effects of long term city planning and urban management in

the long run (including changes in the number of inhabitants and working places)?

• For the Rhine-Ruhr area and the London area has been evaluated the

existing data bases and information about the assumed future urban

development in these areas

• The requirements for assessment of climate change impact to future urban

development scenarios have been evaluated

• Climate sensitive areas in urban areas must be taken into account for

generating urban development scenarios in future years

• Qualitatively can be assumed that with increasing population density in the

considered MCs the energy efficiency increase and the air quality

improves, but the overall health impacts in urban areas could be increase

with higher population density


And many thanks for the good cooperation in MEGAPOLI

Joachim Roos, Tatjana Kampffmeyer, Melinda Uzbasich, Konstantin

Schenk, Ulrike Kugler, Sandra Torras-Ortiz, Alexandra Kuhn, Markus

Blesl, David Bruchof, Tom Kober, Rainer Friedrich, Dick van den Hout,

Sandro Finardi, Isabelle Coll, Khaiwal Ravindra, Sue Grimmond,

Juergen Ossenbruegge, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Mark Lawrence, Tim

Butler, Sabine Schempp and other colleagues

Thank you for your attention

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