Maj Gen Muniruzzaman the Security Dimensions of Climate Change COP15
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The Security Dimensions ofClimate Change
Major General Muniruzzaman (Retd)
President
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)1
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Cl im a t e c h a n g e i s a n a l l en com p a s s i n g
t h r e a t , d i r e c t l y a f f e c t i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ,
t h e e co n o m y , h e a l t h a n d sa f e t y . M a n y co m m u n i t i e s f a c e m u l t i p l e s t r e ss e s w i t h
s e r i o u s s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l a n d s e c u r i t y
im p l i c a t i o n s , b o t h d om e s t i ca l l y a n d a b r o a d . M i l l i o n s o f p e o p l e a r e u p r o o t e d o r
p e r m a n e n t l y o n t h e m o v e a s a r e su l t .
M a n y m o r e m i l l i o n s w i l l f o l l o w .
K o f i A n n a n
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Introduction
Climate change is recognised as a major security
issue that poses serious global threats.
Climate change affects individuals and communities
around the world.
Climate change brings hunger, disease, poverty and
poses a threat to social and, political stability.
Climate change can heighten existing social and
political tensions or can lead to new ones.
If unchecked, climate change is likely to aggravate
old and trigger new tensions.
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Understanding Climate Security
The impacts of climate change have now
constituted political, economic, societal and
environmental threats to the international
community.
Climate security is the protection of human
civilisation from the danger and loss that can
be caused by climate change.
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Changes in Temperature
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The security dimensions of climate
change
Mainly two dimensions:
1. Human security
2.Hard Security
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Human Security Dimensions
Food security
Water security
Health security
Migration/IDP Development
Poverty
Energy security
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Threat to food security
Reduced agricultural productivity is
potentially the most worrisome
consequence of cl imate change
If global warming rises to 3 0 C it is
likely that the number of people
suffering from hunger will increase by250 million to 550 million (Stern
2006:72)
The combination of various climatechange impacts will overstretch
adaptive capacities in agricultural
production (IPCC, 2007)
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Threat to food security
Desertification and soil erosion will
lead to a decrease in available
farmland and a reduction in potentialyields (IPCC, 2007)
Food production in river deltas may
be substantially constrained due tosea level r ise and coastal erosion.
According to German AdvisoryCouncil on Global Change agricultural
production from rainfed agriculture
could fall by about 50% in some
regions by 2020 (WBGU 2007)
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Possible Effects of Environmental Change on
Agricultural Productivity
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Sea level rise
Extremeweather events
Frequentdroughts
Erosion andsilting
Globalwarming,Deforestation,Degradation of
agriculturalland
Reduced orconstrained
Regionalagricultural
productivity
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Water Crisis
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Climate change affects the
nature of global rainfall,evaporation, snow, stream
flow and other factors that
affect water supply and
quality.
Water scarcity and reducedquality threaten the very
survival of those affected
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Water Crisis
1.1 billion people are currently without access to safe drinkingwater.
According to IPCC, the availability of water will decrease inabsolute terms as a result of global warming. By mid centurysome regions, including the MENA region and southern Africawill see a decline of between 10% and 30%.
According to IPCC, worlds population that will suffer as aresult of water stress range from 262 million to approximatelythree bill ion by 2080.
Likely to threaten irrigation and food production
Hinders economic development and damages ecosystems.
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Areas vulnerable to climate related
water challenges
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German Advisory Council on Global Change
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Risk to Human Health
A changing climate affects the essential
ingredients of maintaining good health: clean
air and water, sufficient food and adequate
shelter.
Every year the health of 235 million people is
likely to be seriously affected by gradual
environmental degradation due to climate
change.
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf -
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Risk to Human Health
Climate change is projected to cause over
150,000 deaths annually and almost 45 million
people are estimated to be malnourished
because of climate change.
Climate change-related diarrhoea incidences are
projected to amount to over 180 million cases
annually, resulting in almost 95,000 fatalities.
Source:http://www.eird.org/pub
lications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf -
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Impact of Climate Change onHuman Health
Climate
Change
Human Exposure
Regionalweather change;Heat waves;
Extremeweather; Sealevel rise;Salinity intrusion
Health Effects
Temperature -related illnessand deathWaterbornediseasesAir pollutionrelated healtheffectsInfectious and
other healtheffects
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Threat to development
Threatens the long terms sustainability ofdevelopment process.
Economic resources which would normally be
channeled directly into the productionprocess instead have to be spent onadaptation measures.
Th e d r o p s i n g r o w t h a n d p r o s p e r i t y a r e l i k e l y t o b e
v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l i f c l i m a t e ch a n g e co n t i n u e s
u n a b a t e d a n d c a u s e s g r e a t l y in t e n s i f i ed c l i m a t e
i m p a c t s .
(German Advisory Council on Global Change)
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Threat to development
Infrastructures of climate-
sensitive areas face seriousvulnerability
To the extent that industry isaffected, large economies arethreatened with lossesamounting to several percentageof GDP, while in smaller regionsreductions of up to 25% mayeven occur.
( GTZ, Climate Change and Security: Challenges for
German Development Cooperation ,2008)
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Climate Change: Threat to MDGs
MDGs Threat to MDGsGoal 1: Eradicate extreme
hunger
and poverty
Regional food security is undermined
and vulnerability of poor people
increases
Goal 2: Achieve universal
primary
education
Displacement and migration of families
makes education a low priority
Goal 3: Promote gender equality Women make up two-thirds of worldspoor and are more adversely impacted
by disasters
Goal 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability
Climate change causes fundamental
alterations in ecosystemsGoal 8: Develop a global
partnership for development
The lack of adequate investment for
adaptation acts as a significant drag on
humanitarian assistance and
development.http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf -
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Poverty
Climate change compounds
existing poverty bydestroying livelihoods.
Climate change drives
poverty through a vicious
circle of reduced crop yieldand resulting lower income
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Poverty
About 60 percent of developing
nations workforce, about 1.5
billion people, are employed in
agriculture, livestock, fisheries
and tourism
More than ten million people
have fallen into poverty todaybecause of climate change
Source:http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf -
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Migration/IDPs
Changes in local and regional climatic
conditions may severely restrictlivelihood options for large groups indeveloping countries.
Climate changes may directly challengebasic subsistence of alreadydisadvantaged communities in the
region, thereby further increasing theirvulnerability across social, economicand institutional settings
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Migration/IDPs
Increasing local vulnerability
could potentially trigger large-scale displacement and migration
from one region to other in search
of new avenues for employment
and/or settlement.
Loss of livelihoods will trigger
IDPs in vulnerable regions.
Pressure on unplanned urban
areas
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Energy Security
Over the coming decades, the world faces a
daunting challenge in meeting growing globalenergy needs while mitigating the impacts of global
climate change.
According to ADB climate change poses
fundamental threats to food and energy security.
Developing countries will severely be affected.
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Hard Security Dimensions
Inter-state conflict
Regional destabilization
Intra-state conflict
State vulnerability Social fragmentation
Vulnerability of nuclear
zones
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Inter-state conflict
Rising tension
Localised war
Inter-state conflict/war
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Inter-state conflict
For centuries, wars have been fought for
territorial expansion, ideological or religious
dominance, and national pride. In the future,
as climate change progresses and its effectsbecome more pronounced, conflicts
between states over natural resources could
increasingly take centre-stage.Byers & Dragojlovic
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Regional destabilisation
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for
instability in some of the most volatile regions ofthe world.
Projected climate change will seriously
exacerbate already marginal living standards in
many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations,
causing widespread political instability and thelikelihood of failed state.
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Intra-state conflict
Ethnic conflict Civil strife
SocialFragmentation
Terrorism
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State Collapse
Vulnerable state Weak state
Fragile state
Failed state Non-state
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State Collapse
When climate change significantly orenvironmental conditions deteriorate
to the point that necessary resources
are not available, societies canbecome stressed sometimes to the
point of collapse
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CNA Report on the National Securityand the Threat of Climate Change
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Social Fragmentation
Competition over scarce
resources
Breakdown of traditionalestablished order.
Group versus groupconflict
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Social Fragmentation
An exercise last December at the National Defence
University, an educational institute that is overseenby the military, explored the potential impact of a
destructive flood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds
of thousands of refugees streaming into
neighboring India, touching off religious confl ict, the
spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to
infrastructure. It gets real complicated real
quickly, said Amanda J. Dory, the Deputy AssistantSecretary of Defense for Strategy
(The New York Times, 8th August, 2009)
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Conflict over resources
Resource scarcity has thepotential to be a contributing
factor to conflict and instability.
Examples include: the 1994genocide in Rwanda, the
situation in Darfur, Sudan, the1970s downfall of EthiopianEmperior because of hisgovernment inabili ty to respond
to food shortages; and the 1974Nigerian coup that resultedlargely from an insufficientresponse to famine
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Vulnerability of nuclear zones
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Threat Multiplier
The impacts of climate change
will add significantly to existing
tensions.
It leads to economic collapses,
massive human migration and
escalation of existing conflictsbetween states.
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S it i k i t d ith li t h S l t d h t t
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Security r isks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots
B l d h A C St d
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Bangladesh: A Case Study
According to the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC
following changes have been observed in climate trends,
variabili ty and extreme events in Bangladesh:
In Bangladesh, average temperature has registered an
increasing trend of about 1C in May and 0.5C in November
during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998.
Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation
in Bay of Bengal has increased.
Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have
penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels
during the dry season.
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(Source:4th Assessement Report of IPCC,2007)
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Impacts of major floods in Bangladesh
Event Impact
1954 flood Affected 55% of the country
1974 flood Moderately severe, over 2000 deaths, affected 58% of the
country, followed by famine with over 30,000 deaths
1984 flood Inundated 52,520 sq. km. cost estimated at US$378 million
1987 flood Inundated over 50,000 sq.km. estimated damage US$1.0billion, 2055 deaths
1988 flood Inundated 61% of the country, estimated damage US$1.2billion, more than 45 million homeless, between 2000-6500
deaths
1998 flood 1100 deaths, inundated nearly 100000 sq.km., rendered 30million people homeless, damaged 500,000 homes, heavy loss
to infrastructure, estimated damage US$2.8 billion
2004 flood Inundation 38%, damage US$6.6 billion, deaths 700, affectedpeople nearly 3.8 million.
Source: Ministry of Environment and
Forest, Government of Bangladesh
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Is Bangladesh sinking?
Bangladesh: A Case Study
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Year Storm surgeHeight(m)
Wind speed
Km/hr
Casualty (people)
1960 5.35 211 10000
1961 7.45 160 11468
1963 4.7 203 11520
1965 6.85 160 19279
1970 7.6 224 500000
1985 3.95 184 11069
1988 3.5 160 5704
1991 6.75 225 150000
Bangladesh: A Case Study
Some devastating tropical cyclones since 1960
Source:www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdf
I t f l l i B l d h
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdf -
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Impact of sea level rise on Bangladesh
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Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario
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Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario
Salinity affected areas in the coastal and offshore regions
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Salinity affected areas in the coastal and offshore regions
of Bangladesh
Description Total cultivated area(ha) Saline
Area(ha)
Non-saline with
very slightly saline
4,25,490 1,15,370
(27%)
Very slightly saline
with slightly saline
4,20,420 3,09,190
(73%)
Slightly saline
with moderately
saline
2,57,270 2,40,220
(93%)
Moderately saline
with strongly
saline
1,98,890 1,98,890
(100%)
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Source:http://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdf
Spread of Climate sensitive Diseases in Bangladesh
http://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdf -
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Spread of Climate-sensitive Diseases in Bangladesh
Diseases Total cases per period
Period Average annualcases
Diarrhoea 48302636 1988-2005 2842273
Skin diseases 23697833 1988-1996 2623092
Malaria 1018671 1974-2004 33956
Mental disorders 201881 1988-1996 22431
Dengue 19830 1999-2005 3305
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Source:http://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Regional_Health_Forum_volume_12_No_1_climat
e_change_and_its_impact
M j A f C
http://www.searo.who.int/Linkhttp://www.searo.who.int/Link -
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Glacier Melting
Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other partsof the world.
In Northwest China, 27% of the glacier area will decline by 2050(equivalent to an ice volume of 16,184 km3), as will 10 to 15% of the
frozen soil area. IPCC made a forecast that if current trends continue, 80% of
Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 30 years.
The current trends of glacial melt suggest that the Ganges, Indus,Brahmaputra and other rivers across the northern Indian plain couldlikely become seasonal rivers in the near future.
Major Areas of Concern
Glacier Melting: A Growing Danger
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Glacier Melting: A Growing Danger
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I i t l di t
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Increasing natural disasters
Global warming ispredicted to increasethe frequency andintensity of tropical
storms, flash floods,landslides, and wildfires, and substantiallyalter precipitation
patterns in many partsof the world
Response Mechanism
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Response Mechanism
Global information and early warning system must beexpanded
Climate protection must be integrated as a cross-cutting
theme into poverty reduction strategies from the outset. Role of the military.
Contingency planning
Knowledge, information, technology and expertise sharingand exchange.
Comprehensive adaptation. International/ Regional policy framework. Public Awareness. Political will and co-operation.
Global consensus.
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Thank YouThank You
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Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
Studies (BIPSS)