Mainstreet Technologies - Alberta Issues May
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Transcript of Mainstreet Technologies - Alberta Issues May
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The poll surveyed a random sample of 3,018 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on May 25th, 2015.
Mainstreet surveyed a mix of landlines and cell phones. Margin of error +/- 1.78%, 19/20.
ALBERTA ISSUES[MAY 2015]
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ALBERTANS BACK ROYALTY REVIEW, MAJORITY OPPOSES CARBON TAX
May 27th, 2015. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 3,018 Albertans finds 51% opposed to a carbon tax while 65% back a royalty review. The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.78%, 19/20. It is the first monthly Alberta Issues poll since Mainstreets extensive coverage of the 2015 Alberta Election.
The trend in Alberta continues to show that a majority are much more optimistic about their own finances than that of the province as a whole, this was the case prior to Budget 2015 and Election 2015. Overall optimism in both personal finances and provincial finances has increased since the election of Premier Notley, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies.
A majority of Albertans support a royalty review and think Alberta should increase royalties. This is good news for the Notley government but not good news for the oil and gas industry. With oil prices remaining below $60 per barrel, new investments in the Alberta oil patch may be risky in the short term until the new royalty is determined. In the long term, it's unlikely this will aect the industry.
Approval for Premier Notley is very high; over 6 in 10 people indicated they approve of the new Premier, with almost 4 in 10 indicating "strong approval". This is a very strong number for a Premier who was recently elected by 41% of the popular vote.
A carbon tax continues to be widely unpopular across Alberta despite its potential for helping to fill the deficit gap left by plummeting oil prices in late 2014, he finished.
Highlights:- 62% approve of Premier Notley, approval jumps to 75% in Edmonton- 43% oppose a PC-Wildrose Merger; 34% oppose a Liberal-Alberta merger- 65% support a royalty review, 46% say rates should go up- 51% oppose a carbon tax, 42% support it
-30-For more information:David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected] Available for interview from Toronto:Quito Maggi, [email protected]
DetailsThe poll surveyed a random sample of 3,018 Alberta residents by Smart IVR on May 25th, 2015. Mainstreet polled a mixture of home phones and cell phones.
About Mainstreet TechnologiesMainstreet Technologies is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys by-election in Sudbury.
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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?
BREAKDOWNS18-3436%29%13%16%6%295
35-4926%30%16%18%9%469
50-6440%21%11%12%15%967
65+43%24%6%11%15%1287
Female36%27%12%14%10%1572
Male35%26%13%16%10%1446
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB31%27%14%16%12%1042
CALGARY37%25%13%16%10%1026
EDMONTON47%28%8%10%7%950
62%
28%
10%
Total ApprovalTotal Disapproval
Not Sure
-
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?
BREAKDOWNS18-3447%42%12%295
35-4939%54%8%469
50-6439%46%15%967
65+39%37%23%1287
Female44%44%13%1572
Male39%47%14%1446
OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURESAMPLE
OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB40%47%14%1042
CALGARY45%43%12%1026
EDMONTON41%45%13%950
May
201
5Ja
nuar
y 201
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
41%
45%
13%
24%
49%
27%
Optimistic Pessimistic Not Sure
-
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?
BREAKDOWNS18-3452%26%22%295
35-4946%33%21%469
50-6454%29%17%967
65+56%22%21%1287
Female53%26%22%1572
Male50%31%19%1446
OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURESAMPLE
OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB51%29%20%1042
CALGARY53%26%21%1026
EDMONTON51%28%21%950
May
201
5Ja
nuar
y 201
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
52%
28%
20%
48%
28%
24%
Optimistic Pessimistic Not Sure
-
Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?
BREAKDOWNS18-3444%40%8%8%295
35-4930%51%11%9%469
50-6430%46%14%9%967
65+37%40%15%8%
1287
Female35%44%12%9%
1572
Male36%45%11%8%
1446
INCREASESTAY THE SAMEDECREASENOT SURESAMPLE
INCREASESTAY THE SAMEDECREASENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB36%43%12%9%
1042
CALGARY37%45%10%8%
1026
EDMONTON33%48%10%8%950
May
201
5Ja
nuar
y 201
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
36%
45%
11%
9%
46%
30%
14%
10%
Increase Decrease Stay the same Not Sure
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Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or oppose a merger?
BREAKDOWNS18-3423%29%14%17%17%295
35-4917%30%14%25%14%469
50-6416%13%19%38%15%967
65+14%17%20%33%15%1287
Female17%23%16%27%17%1572
Male20%25%16%27%13%1446
STRONGLY SUPPORTSOMEWHAT SUPPORTSOMEWHAT OPPOSESTRONGLY OPPOSENOT SURESAMPLE
STRONGLY SUPPORTSOMEWHAT SUPPORTSOMEWHAT OPPOSESTRONGLY OPPOSENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB19%23%16%27%15%1042
CALGARY16%25%16%27%15%1026
EDMONTON18%24%17%26%16%950
May
201
5De
cem
ber 2
014
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
42%
43%
15%
33%
58%
10%
Support Oppose Not Sure
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Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a merger?
BREAKDOWNS18-3412%23%3%
24%38%295
35-4911%23%5%
29%32%469
50-6412%17%10%29%32%967
65+11%14%9%32%34%1287
Female11%21%6%27%35%1572
Male12%19%6%
29%34%1446
STRONGLY SUPPORTSOMEWHAT SUPPORTSOMEWHAT OPPOSESTRONGLY OPPOSENOT SURESAMPLE
STRONGLY SUPPORTSOMEWHAT SUPPORTSOMEWHAT OPPOSESTRONGLY OPPOSENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB12%20%6%27%35%1042
CALGARY11%21%7%
30%32%1026
EDMONTON10%22%6%27%35%950
31%
34%
34%
SupportOpposeNot Sure
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Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?
BREAKDOWNS18-3436%31%14%15%4%295
35-4938%25%14%16%6%469
50-6443%21%9%
20%8%967
65+41%24%12%14%9%
1287
Female40%25%13%16%7%
1572
Male38%27%13%17%6%
1446
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB36%28%14%15%7%
1042
CALGARY42%24%10%19%6%
1026
EDMONTON43%23%12%16%6%950
65%
29%
6%
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure
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From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?
BREAKDOWNS18-3450%34%5%11%295
35-4951%30%6%13%469
50-6440%34%8%18%967
65+40%35%9%17%1287
Female46%33%7%14%1572
Male47%33%6%14%1446
INCREASESTAY THE SAMEDECREASENOT SURESAMPLE
INCREASESTAY THE SAMEDECREASENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB47%32%7%14%1042
CALGARY46%33%6%14%1026
EDMONTON46%34%7%14%950
46%
33%
7%
14%
Increase
Stay The Same
Decrease
Not Sure
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Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?
BREAKDOWNS18-3427%36%26%11%295
35-4929%26%34%12%469
50-6433%25%23%20%967
65+36%25%17%21%1287
Female31%27%25%17%1572
Male30%30%27%13%1446
PAY MORE IN ROYALTIESPAY MORE BASED ON EMMISSIONSNEITHERNOT SURESAMPLE
PAY MORE IN ROYALTIESPAY MORE BASED ON EMMISSIONSNEITHERNOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB28%31%25%15%1042
CALGARY36%24%27%14%1026
EDMONTON31%26%28%16%950
30%
29%
26%
15%
Pay More In RoyaltiesPay More Based On Emissions
NeitherNot Sure
-
And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and consumers?
BREAKDOWNS18-3414%29%20%33%3%295
35-4912%29%19%35%5%469
50-6421%23%15%30%10%967
65+20%20%15%35%10%1287
Female17%26%18%31%7%
1572
Male16%27%17%35%6%
1446
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE
REST OF AB16%28%17%33%7%
1042
CALGARY16%25%19%34%6%
1026
EDMONTON17%24%18%34%7%950
42%
51%
7%
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure
-
SCRIPT
Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure
Q2. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?
Optimistic Pessimistic Not sure
Q3. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?
Optimistic Pessimistic Not sure
Q4. Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?
Crude Oil Prices will increase Crude Oil Prices will stay the same Crude Oil Prices will decrease Not sure
Q5. Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or oppose a merger?
Strongly support a merger Somewhat support a merger Somewhat oppose a merger Strongly oppose a merger Not sure
Q6. Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a merger?
Strongly support a merger Somewhat support a merger Somewhat oppose a merger Strongly oppose a merger Not sure
Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?
Strongly approve of a royalty review Somewhat approve of a royalty review Somewhat disapprove of a royalty review Strongly disapprove of a royalty review Not sure
Q8. From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?
Rates should go up Rates should stay the same Rates should go down Not sure
Q9. Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?
Energy companies should pay more in royalties Energy companies should pay more based on greenhouse gas emissions Neither Not sure
Q10. And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and consumers?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure
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SCRIPT (CONT.)
Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rachel Notley is handling her job as Premier?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure
Q2. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?
Optimistic Pessimistic Not sure
Q3. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?
Optimistic Pessimistic Not sure
Q4. Do you think Crude Oil Prices will increase, decrease or stay the same in the next 12 months?
Crude Oil Prices will increase Crude Oil Prices will stay the same Crude Oil Prices will decrease Not sure
Q5. Thinking about the Wildrose party and the Progressive Conservative party, do you support or oppose a merger?
Strongly support a merger Somewhat support a merger Somewhat oppose a merger Strongly oppose a merger Not sure
Q6. Thinking about the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta Party, do you support or oppose a merger?
Strongly support a merger Somewhat support a merger Somewhat oppose a merger Strongly oppose a merger Not sure
Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial government conducting a review of royalty rates for oil and natural gas produced on Crown-owned land?
Strongly approve of a royalty review Somewhat approve of a royalty review Somewhat disapprove of a royalty review Strongly disapprove of a royalty review Not sure
Q8. From everything you have seen, heard or read, should Albertas royalty rates for oil, the oil sands and natural gas production go up, stay the same, or go down?
Rates should go up Rates should stay the same Rates should go down Not sure
Q9. Of these two options, should Alberta energy companies pay more for royalties, or pay more in fees for greenhouse gas emissions?
Energy companies should pay more in royalties Energy companies should pay more based on greenhouse gas emissions Neither Not sure
Q10. And, do you approve or disapprove of a carbon tax that would be paid by both business and consumers?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure