Mainstreaming climate change resilience in urban development plan: Case of

Ahmedabad, India

Minal PathakCEPT University

Ahmedabad, INDIA

Workshop on Tools and Indicators for Assessing Urban Resilience

December 7-10, 2015

Resilience: Evolution of the concept

Definition

IPCC SAR 2001:

Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

IPCC TAR 2001

Amount of change a system can undergo without changing state.

IPCC FAR 2007

The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change

IPCC AR5 2014

The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend or disturbance, responding, reorganizing in ways to maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation

Climate-resilient pathways are development trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realize the goal of sustainable development

Climate-resilient pathways may involve significant transformations -not only building that foundation of resilience (and its institutional, governance, and financial underpinnings) but also mobilizing new resources, adjusting building and land use regulations, and continuously developing the local capacity to respond

Sustainable Development & Climate Change

UN, 2015

National Policies focusing on Sustainable Urban Development

Policy/Mission Key focus areas

INDC • Developing climate resilient urban centers • Safe, smart and sustainable green transportation network

National Sustainable Habitat Mission

To develop sustainable habitats• sustainable transportation• waste management• energy efficient buildings

Smart Cities Mission

• To develop 100 smart cities• Replication to other cities

Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation

To revitalize and rejuvenate 500 cities • ensuring basic infrastructure services • green spaces and parks • climate resilient and energy efficient policies and regulations.

Challenges disaggregated over time and space

Modified from Pathak et al., 2015

Reorienting Urban Development

Managing and reorienting existing urban development– What to do differently and how to do it?

– Expanding the scope and space : Cities’ approach and thinking expands to global thinking

– Affects time frame : Urban researchers and practitioners have to position themselves in global space

TemporalShort term Long term

Spatial Local

Global

Env risks, resource demands,vulnerability to climate

Increasing risks from climate events (impacts on infrastructure, GDP, etc.)

Energy supply, rising emissions

Adverse lock-ins from high carbon growth

Downscaling Assessment to City ScaleDownscaling Scenarios Downscaling Models

• SSPs • National Urban Policy underdifferent SSPs

• Global ProtocolsoTechnology TransferoAdaptation FundsoGreen Climate Funds

• City Level oMitigation TargetsoAdaptation Plan

• CGE Models • Energy System Model

• Accounting Model

• Sea-level Rise Model

• Water System Model

• IAMs • GIS Linked Models

Tem

pora

l

SpatialGlobal Local

Shor

t-te

rmLo

ng-t

erm Mitigation

SpatialGlobal Local

Adaptation

Integrated

Clim

ate

Polic

y D

omai

n

Ref: Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (2011) Draft Comprehensive Development Plan 2021, Government of Gujarat

Bottom UpCity-level elements :Physical, Socio-economic vulnerabilityPotential to act:-adaptive capacity, access to finance, flexibilityBehavioral and Cultural factors-change in lifestyle, energy efficiency rebound effect

Local plans

Steps for Climate Compatible Urban Development

Climate Compatible

Development Strategies

Implementation

City Development Plans

Sectoral Plans (CMPs)

Integrated Assessment

at Urban Scale

Short and Long term goals and targets at city level and sector level

Institutions

Policies/ Instruments (Building codes, land use, zoning)

City Targets for

CCD

Criteria and Indicators

Impacts (% targets achieved)

Finance

Co-benefits

Feedback

Stakeholderengagement

Synergies &Tradeoffs

Cross cutting issues

Cost of actions

Climate compatible urban development

Mainstreaming in existing policy

Roadmap showing long term, medium term and short term actions

8

Low carbon/Resilience

AMC 450 sq km

AUDA1298 sq km

Sabarmati River

2015 2025 2035

Population (millions) 6.3 8.5 11.5

Income (‘000 INR) 55 149 361

Ahmedabad case study

Source: AUDA DP 2021

Ahmedabad case study

Multiple Challenges

October 1991 October 2000

Raykar P, CEPT, 2006

Pathak and Shukla, 2015; Shukla et al., 2010, Mahadevia et al., 2014

Loss of green cover Slums

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2001 2011 2021* 2031*

Water Demand (MLD)

Energy and Emissions

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

2015 2025 2035

0

2

4

6

8

10

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012In

dex:

199

1 va

lue

is eq

ual

to 1

CarTwo-wheeler

Pathak and Shukla, Trans Res. 2015; Shukla et al., 2010

Growth in vehicles

PM10 levels

Transport CO2 Emissions (Mn Tons)

Coping with in-situ climate

Jain and Pathak, 2014

Projections for Mean Temperature

Long Term Temperature increase of 2 ° C by 2050

Increase in number of hot days and hot nights, frequency of droughts

Number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 40oC

2010 2050

Temperature mortality relationships for Ahmedabad and Mumbai

Summer season Winter season

Dholakia et al., 2014; Pathak et al., 2015

Vulnerability

Projected Climate Scenarios

Temperature

Reduced precipitation

Predisposing FactorsDemand for Resources

WaterEnergy demand

High growth

Pressure on existing water resources

Reduced green and open space

Shrinking lakes

Reduced green and open spaces

Microclimate: Heat IslandInfrastructure

Impact on Communities

Heat related mortalityEconomic ImpactsOccupational risks

Aggravates environmental risks

Ahmedabad Urban Development Plan 2021

AUDA 2014

Resilience Strategies

Housing and Land Use

Water Resource Management and Governance

Ecosystem-based adaptation in urban governance and planning

Incentives/charges for climate resilient practices

Building capacity of communities and stakeholders

Financing

Specific Themes

Long Term GoalGoals and Specific Measures in the Short and Medium Term

e.g. Affordable climate resilient housing for all

• TDRs, zoning, and DCRs to increase supply of affordable housing

• Building codes and guidelines for climate sensitive building design, (passive cooling, green/white roofs, and mandate common green areas in buildings

• Slum UpgradationPrograms

Integrated Framework forClimate Compatible Urban Development

Assessment Challenges for Resilience

What we need

Addressing climate risks and uncertainties

High resolution fine scale urban climate scenarios Delineating additional climate burden compared to baseline

Mainstreaming Vertical Integration: SDGs, National goalsComprehensive approach- the unified governance, planning and infrastructure Urban infrastructure choices to avoid lock-ins

Synergies and conflicts

Mitigation-adaptation : common infrastructure Co-benefit assessment (energy access, air pollution, resources, etc.)Toolkits and guidebooks…

Implementation Technology and financial needs assessment for translating into bankable on ground projects

Measuring Urban Resilience• Measurability and comparability: Can there be a universal

resilience index or a more a more specific contextual (location, development stage)- reconciling relativeness of the scale vsabsoluteness of the scale.

• Risks and Uncertainty-How do you build in impacts of climate extremes -attention to fat tail distribution

• Integration: How to get an aggregate measure of resilience, co-benefits (SDGs) and co-costs?

Inclusiveness for gender, class, income groups

Thank youMinal.Pathak@cept.ac.in