Mainstreaming Aid for Trade:Mainstreaming Aid for Trade:Where Do Cambodia and Laos Stand?Where Do Cambodia and Laos Stand?

Regional Meeting on Aid for TradeRegional Meeting on Aid for Tradefor Asia and the Pacificfor Asia and the Pacific

Mona HaddadSector Manager

International Trade DepartmentWorld Bank

Siem Reap, CambodiaMay 29, 2009

Economies that are more integrated into the worldEconomies that are more integrated into the worldeconomy have grown more and through longereconomy have grown more and through longerperiodsperiodsThe objective is to access cheaper inputs andThe objective is to access cheaper inputs andcapital and consumers goods, and to produce/sellcapital and consumers goods, and to produce/sellmore products on domestic and foreign marketsmore products on domestic and foreign markets

22

Mainstreaming trade into countryMainstreaming trade into countrystrategies strategies –– Why? Why?

33

%

Source: World Bank database

Trade performance in East AsiaMerchandise trade in % GDP

44

PresentationPresentation

Matching supply and demand in aid forMatching supply and demand in aid fortradetradeMainstreaming trade in Cambodia andMainstreaming trade in Cambodia andLaosLaosImpact of the crisisImpact of the crisis

Aid for Trade: Matching SupplyAid for Trade: Matching Supplyand Demandand Demand

Is Aid for Trade Enough?Is Aid for Trade Enough?

Which countries might have a Which countries might have a potential demandpotential demand for aid for trade, for aid for trade,either because of poor trade performance or because ofeither because of poor trade performance or because ofcapacity constraints that hamper trade?capacity constraints that hamper trade?

Is the Is the supplysupply of aid for trade going to countries that have a of aid for trade going to countries that have apotential demand for it?potential demand for it?

Which countries are receiving below average aid for trade Which countries are receiving below average aid for trade ––relative to their potential demand?relative to their potential demand?

88

Trade-related technical assistanceTrade-related technical assistance

2021

14

31

34

37

41

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08

AFR

25%

EAP

20%

ECA

24%

LCR

7%

MNA

15%

OTH

2%

SAR

7%

Number of projects, FY02-08

Source: Business Warehouse

Breakdown by Region, FY08

Trade performanceTrade performance –– Several ways to measure.. Several ways to measure..1.1. Growth rate of exports of goods and services Growth rate of exports of goods and services2.2. Change in global market share Change in global market share3.3. Change in competitiveness in existing markets Change in competitiveness in existing markets4.4. Growth rates of export markets Growth rates of export markets –– product and geographic product and geographic

marketsmarkets5.5. Degree of export concentration Degree of export concentration

Potential demand arises from poor trade performancePotential demand arises from poor trade performanceand weak trade capacity and weak trade capacity ……

-15 -10 - 5 0 5 10 15

MalawiGuyana

GuineaYemen, Rep.

SenegalZimbabwe

Benin

EritreaDjibouti

C. African.RepublicKyrgyz Republic

SamoaSt. Lucia

NigeriaKenya

Uzbekistan

HondurasMadagascar

CameroonNiger

Sierra LeoneGambia, The

Congo, Rep.Tajikistan

Sri LankaCôte d'Ivoire

Tanzania

PakistanNepal

BoliviaBurkina Faso

MoldovaGhana

MauritaniaCongo, DR.

Angola

UgandaNicaragua

HaitiGeorgia

MaliBangladesh

BhutanIndia

LesothoArmeniaEthiopia

GrenadaAzerbaijan

BurundiMyanmar

Cape VerdeGuinea-Bissau

Lao PDRCambodia

Mozambique

VietnamRwanda

ZambiaBosnia

Trade performance varies…but 29 low income countries figure in thebottom two quintiles

Source: Authors calculation. World Bank,WTI Note: Quintile scale are from the entire sample of low andmiddle income countries

3rd quintile

4th quintile

5th quintile

2nd quintile

1st quintile

P a k i s t a nPapua New

Sri LankaCôte d ' Ivo i re

N e p a lU z b e k i s t a nCongo DR

G u i n e aS e n e g a lG u y a n aM a l a w i

B e n i nK e n y a

M o l d o v aH o n d u r a s

E r i t r e aG a m b i a

Cen t r a l A f r i c anU g a n d a

M a d a g a s c a rN i g e r

Saint LuciaD o m i n i c aM a l d i v e sD j i b o u t i

Burk ina FasoK y r g y z s t a n

C o m o r o sB u r u n d i

M a u r i t a n i aG u i n e a - B i s s a u

Sierra LeoneR w a n d a

L a o sT a n z a n i aL e s o t h o

H a i t iCape Verde

M a l iE t h i o p i a

C a m e r o o nA r m e n i a

N i c a r a g u aM o n g o l i a

G h a n aB o l i v i aC o n g o

G e o r g i aM o z a m b i q u e

Z a m b i aM y a n m a r

Y e m e nC h a d

B a n g l a d e s hC a m b o d i a

S u d a nEquato r i a l Gu inea

A z e r b a i j a nA n g o l aN i g e r i a

Viet NamI n d i a

Source: Authors calculation. Wolrd Bank,WTI Note: Quintile scale are from the entire sample of low and middle income countries

1st quintile

2nd quintile

3rd quintile

4th quintile

5th quintile

Despite export growth, about half of LICs lost market shareDespite export growth, about half of LICs lost market shareLow income countries: Change in market share, 1996-2006

Sources of export growth: competitiveness or demandSources of export growth: competitiveness or demandgrowth?growth?

--Burundi, Cameroon,Central Afr. Rep., Côte d'Ivoire,Congo D. R., Dominica Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Grenada,Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Honduras, Liberia,Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Moldova, Nepal, Nicaragua,Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, SaoTome and P., Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Tonga,Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Competitiveness effectCompetitiveness effect

Source: Authors calculations based on International Trade Center, Trade Performance indicator

Gainingcompetitiveness inslow growing markets

Gainingcompetitiveness infast growing markets

Losingcompetitiveness infast growing markets

Losingcompetitiveness inslow growing markets

+-Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia,Niger, Nigeria, Yemen.

+ -Azerbaijan, Bangladesh,Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, BurkinaFaso, Cambodia, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Ghana, Haiti,India, Kenya, Kiribati, Laos, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique,Rwanda, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Solomon Is,Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Togo, Uzbekistan,Vanuatu, Viet Nam.

++Angola, Armenia,Cape Verde, Congo, Equatorial Guinea,Georgia, Myanmar.

DemandDemand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Concentration Index

Terms of tradevolatility

Developing Countries: Terms of trade volatility (1996-2006)

Source: Authors calculation based on World Bank, Wolrd Development Indicators and World Trade Indicators

Dependence on a few exports exposes countries to terms ofDependence on a few exports exposes countries to terms oftrade shockstrade shocks

0 20 40 60 80 100

N i g e r i aA n g o l a

Sao Tome and PrincipeY e m e n

Equato r i a l Gu ineaC o n g o

C o m o r o sSierra Leone

B u r u n d iM a l i

M a u r i t a n i aS a m o a

G u i n e a - B i s s a uBurk ina Faso

K i r i b a t iSolomon IsA z e r b a i j a n

B e n i nG u i n e aS u d a n

M a l a w iZ a m b i a

Democratic Republic of the CongoT a j i k i s t a n

T o n g aCentra l Af r ican Repub l ic

E t h i o p i aR w a n d a

Saint LuciaV a n u a t u

H a i t iM o z a m b i q u e

C a m e r o o nM a l d i v e s

Cape VerdeN i g e r

D o m i n i c aG h a n a

L e s o t h oPapua New Guinea

East T imorB a n g l a d e s h

Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesM o n g o l i a

G a m b i aC a m b o d i a

E r i t r e aU z b e k i s t a n

U g a n d aB h u t a n

Côte d ' Ivo i reG u y a n a

G r e n a d aK y r g y z s t a n

A r m e n i aLao People's Democrat ic Republ ic

T o g oM y a n m a r

Tanzania, United Rep. ofZ i m b a b w eH o n d u r a s

K e n y aN e p a l

S e n e g a lB o l i v i a

Moldova, Rep.ofN i c a r a g u a

M a d a g a s c a rSr i LankaP a k i s t a nViet NamG e o r g i aD j i b o u t i

Bosnia and HerzegovinaI n d i a

Concentration Index – average 1996-2006Low income countries

Source: Authors calculation. Wolrd Bank,WTI Note: Quintile scale are from the entire sample of low and middle income countries

5th quintile

4th quintile

3rd quintile

2nd quintile

1st quintile

Besides trade Besides trade performanceperformance, potential demand should, potential demand shouldinclude trade include trade capacitycapacity……

–– InfrastructureInfrastructure1. 1. Quality of infrastructure and information technologyQuality of infrastructure and information technology

––LPI (2)LPI (2)–– InstitutionsInstitutions

2. 2. Quality of customs Quality of customs –– LPI (3) LPI (3)3. 3. Time to export Time to export –– Doing BusinessDoing Business

–– IncentivesIncentives4. 4. Peak tariffs (# of lines 3x average tariff level) Peak tariffs (# of lines 3x average tariff level)5. 5. Tariff overall restrictiveness index - OTRI Tariff overall restrictiveness index - OTRI

Infrastructure, institutions and incentives influence tradeInfrastructure, institutions and incentives influence trade

Change in exports %

Effects of 1% change in infrastructure, institution, and incentive on exports

Note: Marginal effects calculates at the average of the sample. a represents the change passing from zero to one. The restof the variables refers to change of 1 percentage point. bOther control variables are listed in the Annex.

0

InstitutionsInstitutions

IncentivesIncentives

Control variables

(selected)b

InfrastructureInfrastructure

a

a

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

GDP of importer

Distance

FTA

WTO

Tariff peak

Trade restictions

Customs efficiency

Time to export

Transport and IT

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

LDC Other low income Middle Income

About 60% of LDCs figure in the bottom two quintiles ofinfrastructure rankings for all developing countries

Source: Authors calculation based on World Bank, LPI Indicators

Passing from the fourthPassing from the fourthquintile to the third quintilequintile to the third quintileraise trade by raise trade by 35%35%

Quantifying Quantifying ““potential demandpotential demand”…”… adding it up adding it up

Score every country on 10Score every country on 10dimensionsdimensions

1 for highest quintile1 for highest quintile……to 5 forto 5 forlowest quintilelowest quintile

Least demand (best score) = 10Least demand (best score) = 10……..to highest need for aid for trade =to highest need for aid for trade =5050

Trade performanceTrade performance1 Growth of exports1 Growth of exports2 Change in market share2 Change in market share3 Competitiveness in existing markets3 Competitiveness in existing markets4 Demand structure4 Demand structure5 Concentration- diversification5 Concentration- diversification

CapacityCapacity66 InfrastructureInfrastructure77 CustomsCustoms8 Time to export8 Time to export99 Tariff peaksTariff peaks1010 Overall tariff restrictivenessOverall tariff restrictiveness

Potential demand for aid for tradePotential demand for aid for trade

GuyanaSierra Leone

Central AfricanEast Timor

MalawiSamoa

SomaliaBenin

Congo DRJamaica

UzbekistanNamibia

TajikistanEritreaNepal

FijiMicronesia

MadagascarNiger

Papua New GuineaRwanda

ComorosSyrian Arab Republic

YemenSolomon Is

Burkina FasoEthiopia

GuineaMali

ParaguayBurundi

Sao Tome and PrincipeSaint Vincent and the

KyrgyzstanMauritius

SudanUgandaZambiaGambia

HaitiLaos

VanuatuColombia

GabonMoldovaTanzaniaLesothoCongo

Source: Authors calculation based on data from ITC and World Bank.

Countries in the bottom two quintiles

Does potential demand match supply?Does potential demand match supply?

Aid for trade (GDP) is determined by potential demand, p.c.Aid for trade (GDP) is determined by potential demand, p.c.income, and aid effectivenessincome, and aid effectiveness……

Source: Authors calculation based on 2006 cross section regression

Potential demand for aid for trade

Supply of aid for trade /GDP

AGO

ARM

AZE

BDI

BEN

BFA

BGD

BIH

BOL

BTN

CAF

CIV

CMR

COGCOMCPV

DJI

DMA

ERI

ETH

GEO

GHA

GIN

GMB

GNB

GNQ

GRD

GUY

HND

HTI

IND

KEN

KGZ

KHM

KIR

LAO

LBR

LCA

LKA

LSO

MDA

MDG

MDV

MLI

MNG

MOZ

MRT

MWI

NERNGA

NIC

NPL

PAK

PNG

RWA

SDN

SEN

SLB

SLE

STP

TCD

TGO

TJK

TMP

TON

TZA

UGA

UZB

VNM

VUT

YEM

ZAR

ZMBGood news: positiveGood news: positivecorrelationcorrelation

Other news: manyOther news: manycountries underservedcountries underserved

ConclusionsConclusions…… Aid for trade potential demand outstrips Aid for trade potential demand outstripscurrent supplycurrent supply

While trade performance of developing countries as a group hasWhile trade performance of developing countries as a group hasbeen strong, many countries are performing below average andbeen strong, many countries are performing below average andmany countries are vulnerable to a slowing global economymany countries are vulnerable to a slowing global economy

Particular at risk are those with poor trade performance Particular at risk are those with poor trade performance –– slow slowgrowth, declining market shares, and concentrated exports growth, declining market shares, and concentrated exports ––

……and those with poor infrastructure, institutions and exportand those with poor infrastructure, institutions and exportincentivesincentives

While aid for trade supply is broadly correlated with potentialWhile aid for trade supply is broadly correlated with potentialdemand, still, several countries that have the highest potentialdemand, still, several countries that have the highest potentialdemand are receiving less- than- average levels of aid for trade.demand are receiving less- than- average levels of aid for trade.

Mainstreaming Aid for Trade inMainstreaming Aid for Trade inCambodia and LaosCambodia and Laos

Mainstreaming Trade in CambodiaMainstreaming Trade in Cambodia

Integrated Framework in 2002, 2007Integrated Framework in 2002, 2007Successful integration of trade reform intoSuccessful integration of trade reform intonational development strategynational development strategyConsultative approach to Aid for TradeConsultative approach to Aid for TradeAid coordination and harmonizationAid coordination and harmonizationamong donorsamong donorsStrong partnership between developmentStrong partnership between developmentpartners and private sectorpartners and private sector

Trade Sector Wide ApproachTrade Sector Wide Approach

Overall strategy for trade reform throughOverall strategy for trade reform throughaid for trade frameworkaid for trade frameworkStrong partnership between governmentStrong partnership between governmentand development partnersand development partnersDevelopment partners contribute specificDevelopment partners contribute specificactivities in area of expertiseactivities in area of expertise——nonoduplicationduplicationGovernment and development partnersGovernment and development partnersreview progress on quarterly basisreview progress on quarterly basis

Success ElementsSuccess ElementsGovernment ownership/leadershipGovernment ownership/leadership–– Sub-steering committee on trade under MOCSub-steering committee on trade under MOC–– Strong government leadershipStrong government leadership

Sector-wide approachSector-wide approach——not project focusednot project focusedWell fundedWell funded–– Multi-donor trust fund finances Trade SWApMulti-donor trust fund finances Trade SWAp

Donor coordinationDonor coordination–– Coordinated support from donorsCoordinated support from donors

Private sector involvementPrivate sector involvement–– Key stakeholders in Key stakeholders in ““doingdoing”” trade trade

Monitoring and accountabilityMonitoring and accountability

Trade SWAp: 3 PillarsTrade SWAp: 3 Pillars

Cross-cutting reformsCross-cutting reforms–– TBT/SPS; trade facilitation/customs;TBT/SPS; trade facilitation/customs;

investment promotion; legal reform; IPinvestment promotion; legal reform; IPSector-specific reformsSector-specific reforms–– Value chain analysis; garment and footwear;Value chain analysis; garment and footwear;

tourism; rice; rubber; fisheriestourism; rice; rubber; fisheriesCapacity developmentCapacity development–– MOC and related line ministries; provincialMOC and related line ministries; provincial

departments; public-private partnershipsdepartments; public-private partnerships

Trade Facilitation andTrade Facilitation andCompetitiveness ProjectCompetitiveness Project

Application of ICT to border managementApplication of ICT to border managementProcess re-engineeringProcess re-engineeringExport promotionExport promotionLegal and judiciary frameworkLegal and judiciary frameworkCapacity buildingCapacity buildingTrade infrastructureTrade infrastructure

Border management reformBorder management reform

Customs automation through ASYCUDACustoms automation through ASYCUDASystem operational in Sihanoukville port;System operational in Sihanoukville port;option to roll out in 5 other portsoption to roll out in 5 other portsRisk management and post-clearanceRisk management and post-clearanceaudit for quicker import and export processaudit for quicker import and export processInter-agency agreements to defineInter-agency agreements to defineresponsibilities in clearance processresponsibilities in clearance processMany donors involvedMany donors involvedMerit-based pay incentiveMerit-based pay incentive

Export competitivenessExport competitiveness

Partner with individual firms to findPartner with individual firms to findoverseas markets for their outputoverseas markets for their outputTarget firms to form cluster of newTarget firms to form cluster of newexporters in each sectorexporters in each sectorTA to Department of Export PromotionTA to Department of Export PromotionMatching grant to cover up to 50% of costMatching grant to cover up to 50% of costof achieving market standardsof achieving market standards

Mainstreaming Trade in LaosMainstreaming Trade in Laos

Integrated Framework in 2006Integrated Framework in 2006National Implementation UnitNational Implementation UnitDonor and government stakeholdersDonor and government stakeholdersWorld Bank:World Bank:–– Poverty Reduction Support OperationPoverty Reduction Support Operation–– Customs and Trade Facilitation ProjectCustoms and Trade Facilitation Project–– Trade Development FacilityTrade Development Facility

Laos: Poverty Reduction Support OperationLaos: Poverty Reduction Support Operation

Revising Customs lawRevising Customs lawDeveloping and implementing nationalDeveloping and implementing nationaltrade facilitation action plantrade facilitation action planComplying with ASEAN and WTOComplying with ASEAN and WTOrequirementsrequirements

Laos: Customs and Trade FacilitationLaos: Customs and Trade FacilitationProjectProject

Simplification of customs procedures,Simplification of customs procedures,elimination of duplication and redundancyelimination of duplication and redundancyReduction of transaction costs and time toReduction of transaction costs and time toclear goodsclear goodsIncreased transparency and accountabilityIncreased transparency and accountabilityImplementation of automated customsImplementation of automated customssystemsystem——ASYCUDA WorldASYCUDA WorldCustoms modernization supportCustoms modernization support

Laos: Trade Development FacilityLaos: Trade Development Facility

Simplified bureaucratic proceduresSimplified bureaucratic proceduresImproved legal and regulatory framework,Improved legal and regulatory framework,especially in SPS/TBTespecially in SPS/TBTEnhanced capacity of line ministries andEnhanced capacity of line ministries andagencies involved in tradeagencies involved in tradeImproved private sector capacity toImproved private sector capacity tocompetecompeteStrengthened national implementation unitStrengthened national implementation unit

Impact of the CrisisImpact of the Crisis

3535

70% of the global economy is in70% of the global economy is inrecessionrecession……

-4

-2

0

2

4

United States Euro Area Japan

Source: World Bank and National Agencies.

Growth of real GDP, percent change annualized

Q1 Q2 Q3

Global trade volumes to decline by 6.1Global trade volumes to decline by 6.1percent in 2009 and recover in 2010percent in 2009 and recover in 2010

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Annual percent change in the volume of exports of goods and services

Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

High-income countries

Developing countries

Trade In All Regions Is AffectedTrade In All Regions Is Affected

3737Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth ratesacross economies within regions for a balanced sample of 45 economies reporting data

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb

EAP ECA LAC MENA NOA SAS SSA

Export Growth by Region, Jan 08 – Feb 09, yoy change

East Asia will rebound in 2010East Asia will rebound in 2010

Source: World Bank Development Prospects Group

Services trade is more robustServices trade is more robust

Australia

Belgium

Brazil

Canada

Czech RepublicDenmark

Euro area

Finland

FranceGermany

GreeceHungary

Indonesia

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNew Zealand

Norway

Poland PortugalSlovak RepublicSpain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

-30

-20

-10

010

Gro

wth

Rate

Goods Im

port

s

-30 -20 -10 0 10Growth Rate Services Imports

Quarterly Growth Rates Imports

45 degree line

4040

Financial crisis has dried up tradeFinancial crisis has dried up tradefinance -- strangling exportersfinance -- strangling exporters

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

short term trade finance (structured) in emerging markets$million

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 est

Trade credit spreads (bp)

Brazil Indonesia

Korea China

India Russia

Turkey

414141

World Bank Group trade finance initiativesWorld Bank Group trade finance initiatives

A focus of the G20 summit.A focus of the G20 summit.IFC Global Trade Finance Program (GTFP)IFC Global Trade Finance Program (GTFP)

•• Offers guarantees for trade finance risks commercial banks do not want to takeOffers guarantees for trade finance risks commercial banks do not want to take•• 2,500 transactions in last 3 years for over US$3 billion in guarantees2,500 transactions in last 3 years for over US$3 billion in guarantees•• Doubling of GTFP capacity from $1.5 to $3 billion in December 2008Doubling of GTFP capacity from $1.5 to $3 billion in December 2008

New Global Trade Liquidity Program (GTLP)New Global Trade Liquidity Program (GTLP)•• IFC commits US$1 billion over 2-3 years and mobilizes 2-3 times that amountIFC commits US$1 billion over 2-3 years and mobilizes 2-3 times that amount

from program partners (Govtfrom program partners (Govt’’s and other MDBs)s and other MDBs)•• Resources used to Resources used to ffund self liquidating short term trade transactions, partneringself liquidating short term trade transactions, partnering

with 5-10 major utilization bankswith 5-10 major utilization banks•• IFC and Program Partners to provide trade funding (pro rata) to UtilizationIFC and Program Partners to provide trade funding (pro rata) to Utilization

Banks for up to 40% of their trade programBanks for up to 40% of their trade programOther World Bank supportOther World Bank support

•• Operations in support of Exim banks, SMEs, and regional trade financeOperations in support of Exim banks, SMEs, and regional trade financeinitiatives. These amount to about $4 billion, including $2.6 billion of new projectsinitiatives. These amount to about $4 billion, including $2.6 billion of new projectsunder development or accelerated because of the crisis.under development or accelerated because of the crisis.

These programs are expected to contribute up to $40-45 billion in tradeThese programs are expected to contribute up to $40-45 billion in tradefinance over two yearsfinance over two years

4242

Several countries have adopted newSeveral countries have adopted newprotectionist measuresprotectionist measures……

Trade restrictions areTrade restrictions arenumerousnumerous……

Rich countries subsidize... poorRich countries subsidize... poorcountries use barrierscountries use barriers

Mesures taken from October 2008 - February 2009

(number of measures)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

proposed w/o decision implemented rejected liberalizing

Source: World Bank staff, List of Trade -related Measures, February 2009. Excludes anti -

dumping cases.

-------Trade restricting -----

Types of measures

Subsidies

and other

support

packages

100%

NTM

11%

Import

Ban

9%

Subsidies

and other

support

packages

31%

Import

duty

49%

Developed countries Developing countries

N = 12 N = 35

Source: World Bank staff, List of Trade -related Measures, February 2009. Excludes anti -

dumping cases.

4343

Anti-dumping cases are increasingAnti-dumping cases are increasing……

Anti-dumping cases are up...Anti-dumping cases are up... ...and growing rapidly...and growing rapidly

Anti -dumping cases, 2007 -2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Average Jan 07- June

08

Jul 08 - Dec 08

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Average Jan 07 - June

08

Jul 08 - Dec 08

Developed

countries

Developing

countries

Antidumping Initiations Antidumping Imposed

Source: Chad Brown, Global Anti -dumping Database, World Bank forthcoming.

Growth anti -dumping cases

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

AD Initiations AD measures

2007

Growth rate of AD

2008

2007

2008

2004

2005

2006

2004 2005

2006

Source: WTO, Anti -dumping Database ( www.wto.org ) and Chad Brown, Global Anti -

dumping Database, World Bank forthcoming.

4444

Pressing ahead with trade reformPressing ahead with trade reform

Avoidance of protectionist responses is paramount toAvoidance of protectionist responses is paramount topreserve the mutual benefits of trade and to supportpreserve the mutual benefits of trade and to supporteconomic recoveryeconomic recovery

Actions to improve competitiveness and diversify exportsActions to improve competitiveness and diversify exportsthrough trade facilitation and related support measuresthrough trade facilitation and related support measuresremain key for developing countriesremain key for developing countries

The crisis increases the urgency of revitalizing andThe crisis increases the urgency of revitalizing andbolstering multilateral cooperation in the tradebolstering multilateral cooperation in the tradeareaarea——including through fulfillment of Aid for Tradeincluding through fulfillment of Aid for Tradecommitments by high-income countries and support bycommitments by high-income countries and support byinternational institutionsinternational institutions

Aid for Trade to Reduce TradeAid for Trade to Reduce TradeCosts in the CrisisCosts in the Crisis

More, not less, is neededMore, not less, is neededFocus on low-hanging fruits to reduceFocus on low-hanging fruits to reducetrade costs in the short termtrade costs in the short termQuick measures to improveQuick measures to improvecompetitivenesscompetitivenessGood time to push reformsGood time to push reformsEasier said than doneEasier said than done

Mainstreaming Aid for Trade:Mainstreaming Aid for Trade:Where Do Cambodia and Laos Stand?Where Do Cambodia and Laos Stand?

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Regional Meeting on Aid for Trade for Asia and the PacificRegional Meeting on Aid for Trade for Asia and the Pacific

Mona Haddadmhaddad@worldbank.org

World Bank