Mahindra Lifespaces - 1QFY2014 Result Update
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Transcript of Mahindra Lifespaces - 1QFY2014 Result Update
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7/27/2019 Mahindra Lifespaces - 1QFY2014 Result Update
1/11
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Revenue 67 104 (35.6) 102 (34.4)EBITDA 9 32 (71) 17 (45.7)
EBITDA margin (%) 13.9% 30.6% (17) 16.8% (2.9)
Adj. PAT 16 29 (46.2) 23 (32.1)Source: Company, Angel Research
For 1QFY2014, Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLIFE) posted a disappointing
set of numbers which were below consensus estimates, both on the revenue and
profitability fronts. MLIFEs standalone revenue reported a decline of 35.6% yoy
to `67cr in 1QFY2014; which was lower than the consensus estimate of`104.4cr. The standalone EBITDA declined by 71% yoy to `9cr, owing to
lower-than-expected revenue recognition and increase in staff cost during the
quarter. On the earnings front, the companys PAT decreased by 46.2% yoy
to `16cr (consensus estimate was `22.8cr). On a consolidated level, MLIFE
reported a revenue of `176.1cr and PAT of `21.8cr, suggesting a profit for its
subsidiaries at the net level. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.Sales expected to pick up in forthcoming quarters: MLIFE launched three existingproject (a) Ashvita Ph-III (Hyderabad), (b) Bloomdale IIA (Nagpur) and (c) Iris
Court Ph-IIIA (MWC Chennai) during the quarter. Further, the company sold
0.16mn sqft (new sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of
`70cr, implying a realization of ~`4,375/sqft and has also added three newcustomers in Jaipur MWC. Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers alongwith improving realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up inapprovals and new launches anticipated in the current financial year.Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversifiedgeographic exposure in terms of ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects.
We expect strong sales numbers over the coming quarters, following new project
launches in Pune, Chennai and Mumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is
currently trading at P/BV of 1.3x and 1.2x our FY2014 and FY2015 estimate. We
value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and slightly adjust our NAV to `537/share, and
apply a 10% discount to our SOTP value to arrive at a target price of `483,
suggesting an 7% upside from the current levels. We recommend an Accumulaterating on the stock.Key Financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 701 738 888 1,002% chg 14.6 5.3 20.3 12.8
Net Profit 119 141 138 172% chg 10.1 18.7 (2.1) 24.2
EBITDA (%) 27.3 32.8 27.0 29.9
EPS (`) 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1P/E (x) 15.4 13.0 13.2 10.7
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
RoE (%) 10.3 10.9 9.9 11.2
RoCE (%) 10.5 11.7 10.1 11.9
EV/Sales (x) 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.4 10.2 10.4 8.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATECMP `450
Target Price `483
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
Net Debt (` cr) 1,173
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Avg. Daily Volume
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 51.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 3.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 29.4
Indian Public / Others 16.3
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 3.3 17.6 9.9
MLife 15.1 36.2 (6.5)
MAHLIFE.BO
MLIFE@IN
Real Estate
1,836
0.9
472/315
2,406
10
19,805
5,908
Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842
Mahindra LifespacePerformance Highlights
1QFY2014 Result Update | Real Estate
July 25, 2013
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Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)
(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 67 104 (35.6) 102 (34.4) 352 469 (25.0)Other operating income - - - - -Total income 67 104 (35.6) 102 (34.4) 352 469 (25.0)
Cost of project 43 58 (26.8) 62 (31.5) 211 292 (27.8)
(% of total income) 63.8 56.1 61.1 60.0 62.3
Employee Cost 7 7 13.7 6 15.1 26 21 24.0
(% of total income) 11.0 6.2 6.3 7.4 4.5
Administrative and other expenses 8 7 2.7 16 (53.2) 42 35 19.3
(% of total income) 11.3 7.1 15.8 11.8 7.4
Total Expenditure 58 72 (20.1) 85 (32.1) 278 348 (20.0)EBITDA 9 32 (70.8) 17 (45.7) 73 121 (39.6)(EBITDA %) 13.9 30.6 16.8 20.8 25.8
Interest 11 1 667.6 1 625.9 6 3 108.1
Depreciation 1 0 23.3 0 10.4 2 3 (34.0)
Other Income 24 13 76.6 14 69.2 71 52 35.6
PBT 22 43 (49.9) 29 (25.4) 136 168 (18.9)PBT (%) 32.5 41.7 28.6 38.7 35.7
Total Tax 6 14 (57.5) 6 0.5 38 47 (19.0)(% of PBT) 27.6 32.5 20.5 28.3 28.3
Reported PAT (After Min. Int. and Asso.) 16 29 (46.2) 23 (32.1) 97 120 (18.9)PAT Margins (%) 23.5 28.1 22.7 27.7 25.6
Extra ordinary exp/(inc) - - - - -Adj PAT 16 29 (46.2) 23 (32.1) 97 120 (18.9)EPS (`) 3.9 7.2 (46.2) 5.68 (32.1) 24 29 (18.9)
Source: Company, Angel Research
New launches to drive sales growth
During the quarter, the company has launched its third phase of project Ashvita
(Hyderabad) and has already sold 40% of the total units at a realisation of
~`4,100/sqft. The company has also launched (a) Bloomdale IIA in Nagpur, (b)
Iris Court Ph-IIIA in MWC Chennai and (c) its maiden luxury housing project
LArtista in Pune during the quarter. The Mumbai residential project Splendour IIand Iris Court Ph-I have been completed during the quarter. In 1QFY2014, the
company sold 0.16msf (new sales) in its real estate business for a total transaction
value of `70cr, implying a realization of ~`4,375/sqft. During the quarter, the
company has also signed three lease deeds in Jaipur MWC (two in DTA and one in
Evolve). Going forward, we expect strong sales numbers along with improving
realizations in the coming quarters on the back of sharp pick up in approvals and
new launches anticipated in the current financial year.
Out of the eight MOUs for land parcels signed during 3QFY2013, the company
has successfully acquired two more land parcels, ie one each in Boisar,
MMR- Affordable housing and Gurgaon Harayana during the quarter. Both theland parcels are for residential development with a potential of ~0.5mn sqft of
development space in Boisar and ~0.92mn sqft of development space in
Gurgaon.
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Exhibit 2:MLIFE: Sales Volume (Mn Sqft) & Value (`cr)
62
302
53
52
86
155
151
70
0.1
0.6
0.10.2
0.2
0.4 0.4
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Residential Sales (LHS) Area sold
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 3:MLIFE: Price Realization
5,167
4,951
4,062
3,256
4,110
3,969
3,974
4,375
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
(`
perSqft)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Lower revenue recognition hampers revenue growth
MLIFE reported a disappointing set of numbers for the quarter on the standalone
basis. MLIFEs standalone revenue reported a decline of 35.6% yoy to `67cr in
1QFY2014, which is lower than the consensus estimate of`104.4cr. This is mainly
due to (a) some project failing to reach revenue recognition and (b) slow execution
in few projects. The standalone EBITDA decreased by 71% yoy to `9cr, owing to
lower-than-expected revenue recognition and increase in staff cost during the
quarter. On the earnings front, the companys PAT decreased by 46.2% yoy to
`16cr (consensus estimate was `22.8cr). The company has sold 0.16msf (new
sales; real estate business) for a total transaction value of `70cr and has leased
three new customers in its Jaipur MWC. On a consolidated level, MLIFE reported a
revenue of`176.1cr and PAT of`21.8cr, suggesting a profit for its subsidiaries at
net level.
Exhibit 4:Revenue and Revenue growth trend
20
5
(1)
(15)
28
(11)
(60)
(27) (36)
(70)
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
Revenue (` cr) - LHS Growth %
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5:EBITDA and EBITDA margins
21
2830
23
30.6
18.0
14.716.8
13.9
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
EBIDTA (` cr) - LHS EBITDA m argin
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Operational Performance
Exhibit 6:Ongoing projects evaluation by city (mn Sqft)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Chennai Mumbai Pune NCR Nagpur Hyderabad
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:Forthcoming projects evaluation (mn Sqft)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.08.0
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Che nn ai Mum bai Pune NCR Nagpur Hyderabad Bangalore
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:Land bank evaluation by city (mn Sqft)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Chennai Mumbai Pune Hyderabad Nasik Bangalore
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9:New Chennai: Project execution schedule (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Aqualily Villas IB Iris Ph I Iris Court Ph II* Iris Court Ph IIIA
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:Execution schedule of Mumbai projects (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Angelica Splendour
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:Execution schedule of NCR projects (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14Aura- IV Aura- II Aura- III Aura- V
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Investment arguments
In the right markets
MLIFE is a mid-market and premium housing developer. The company caters tostrong demand present in tier-1 cities and small metros, which are typically end-
user driven, as opposed to investor-led demand in super metros ie National
Capital Region (NCR) and Mumbai.
MLIFE, with its focus on upper-middle & middle class housing along with
affordable housing, should see strong pent-up demand over the next few quarters,
especially in light of the fact that housing loan growth has been lagging total credit
growth, which can see a possible reversion as rate cuts start to take place, which
should get reflected in mortgage rates.
Change in estimates
Considering the new launches lined up and five projects hitting the revenue
recognition threshold, we are slightly revising our FY2014 and FY2015 estimates.
We expect a revenue of `888cr and `1,002cr for FY2014 and FY2015
respectively. The EBITDAM estimate has been revised to 27.0% and 29.9% for
FY2014E and FY2015E, respectively. Due to increase in interest cost and rise in
operating expense, we are now estimating a PAT of `138cr (earlier`148cr) and
`172cr (earlier`177cr) for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.
Exhibit 12:Revised estimates
FY2014E FY2015E(` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%)Revenue 888 888 0.0 1,002 1,002 -EBITDA 237 240 1.2 307 299 (2.4)
EBITDA (%) 26.6 27.0 0.4 30.6 29.9 (0.7)
PAT 148 138 (6.5) 177 172 (3.1)EPS (`) 36.3 33.9 (6.6) 43.4 42.1 (3.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Outlook and valuation
We remain positive on MLIFE given its diversified geographic exposure in terms of
ongoing and forthcoming real estate projects. We expect strong sales numbers
over the coming quarters, following new project launches in Pune, Chennai andMumbai, along with robust execution. The stock is currently trading at P/BV of 1.3x
and 1.2x our FY2014 and FY2015 estimate. We value MLIFE on a SOTP basis and
slightly adjust our NAV to `537/share, and apply a 10% discount to our SOTP
value to arrive at a target price of`483, suggesting an 7% upside from the current
levels. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.Exhibit 13:SOTP Break-up
37930
30
71 27537
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Residential
Commercial
MWC-Jaipur
MWC
Chennai
Current
Investments
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 14:MLIFE: One Year Forward P/B and 3yr Avg.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
P/B (x) Avg P/B (3 yr)
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Angel Research
Company Background
Mahindra Lifespace Developers, a 51% owned subsidiary of the Mahindra and
Mahindra Group, is in the business of real estate development, with a focus on
residential projects and integrated infrastructure development such as business
cities, industrial parks and SEZs. MLIFE has till date developed ~7mn sqft of
residential projects in cities like Mumbai, Pune, NCR, and Chennai and is
expanding its presence to cities like Hyderabad, Nagpur and Nasik by increasing
its focus on the premium and mid-market segments. The company has also
announced its plans to enter the affordable housing segment in tier-2 cities. MLIFE
is also present in the integrated development space, with two operational projects
through its subsidiaries MWC Jaipur and MWC Chennai. These are spread overan area of ~4,200 acres with presence of SEZs and DTAs.
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Profit & Loss statement (consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EOperating income 418 612 701 738 888 1,002% chg 22.3 46.4 14.6 5.3 20.3 12.8Operating Expenses 253 366 427 398 515 561
Personnel 18 23 29 35 53 55
Other 34 47 53 63 80 86
Total Expenditure 305 436 510 496 648 702
EBITDA 113 176 191 242 240 299% chg 55.3 56.6 8.5 26.4 (0.9) 24.9(% of Net Sales) 27.0 28.8 27.3 32.8 27.0 29.9
Depreciation& Amortisation 7 8 9 9 9 10
EBIT 106 168 182 233 230 290% chg 38.8 58.6 8.1 28.1 (1.2) 25.7(% of Net Sales) 25.4 27.5 26.0 31.6 25.9 28.9
Interest & other charges 9 11 21 31 40 49
Other Income 22 15 27 34 41 46
(% of sales) 2.2 1.9 3.0 4.2 4.5 4.9
PBT 119 172 188 236 231 287% chg 16.4 44.7 9.3 25.5 (2.1) 24.2Tax 38.3 58.7 59.3 79.9 78.3 97.2
(% of PBT) 32.3 34.1 31.5 33.9 33.9 33.9
PAT (reported) 81 113 129 156 153 190Extraordinary (Expense)/Inc. - - - - - -Minority Interest 2 5 10 15 14 18
ADJ. PAT 78 108 119 141 138 172% chg 22.2 37.8 10.1 18.7 (2.1) 24.2(% of Net Sales) 18.8 17.7 17.0 19.1 15.6 17.2
Basic EPS (`) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1% chg 19.6 37.7 10.1 18.7 (2.1) 24.2
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Balance Sheet (consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 41 41 41 41 41 41Preference Capital 10 - - - - -
Emp. Stock Option Outstand. 0 1 1 1 1 1
Reserves& Surplus 938 1,024 1,114 1,252 1,361 1,497
Shareholders Funds 989 1,065 1,155 1,293 1,403 1,538Minority Interest 82 83 100 86 100 118
Total Loans 421 518 505 778 788 799
Others 10 20 26 51 51 51
Total Liabilities 1,501 1,686 1,786 2,207 2,342 2,506APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 186 209 234 256 276 296
Less: Acc. Depreciation 23 31 39 47 56 66
Net Block 163 178 195 209 220 230Goodwill 29 30 29 95 95 95
Capital Work-in-Progress 13 17 8 7 7 7
Investments 148 87 175 133 133 133
Current Assets 1,394 1,706 1,852 2,414 2,656 2,941Cash 133 238 150 144 138 128
Loans & Advances 207 293 367 433 545 599
Inventory 906 936 1,049 1,631 1,725 1,935
Debtors 121 173 198 90 108 122
Other current assets 25 65 89 115 139 156
Current liabilities 245 332 473 651 770 900
Net Current Assets 1,148 1,373 1,379 1,763 1,887 2,041Mis. Exp. not written off
Total Assets 1,501 1,686 1,786 2,207 2,342 2,506
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Cash Flow Statement (consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 119 172 188 236 231 287
Depreciation 3 8 8 7 9 10Change in Working Capital (128) (120) (93) (390) (130) (165)
Other income (22) (15) (27) (34) (41) (46)
Direct taxes paid (38) (59) (59) (80) (78) (97)
Others
Cash Flow from Operations (67) (14) 16 (261) (8) (12)(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets 17 (27) (16) (20) (20) (20)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (40) 61 (87) 42 - -
Other income 22 15 27 34 41 46
Others
Cash Flow from Investing (0) 49 (77) 55 21 26Issue of Equity - 0 - 0 - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 89 97 (13) 273 10 11
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (13) (19) (24) (29) (29) (36)
Others (20) (9) 9 (45) - -
Cash Flow from Financing 56 70 (27) 199 (19) (25)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (12) 105 (88) (6) (6) (11)
Opening Cash balances 145 133 238 150 144 138Closing Cash balances 133 238 150 144 138 128
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Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 23.4 17.0 15.4 13.0 13.2 10.7
P/CEPS 21.6 15.8 14.3 12.2 12.4 10.1
P/BV 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
Dividend yield (%) (0.7) (1.0) (1.3) (1.6) (1.6) (2.0)
EV/Sales 5.1 3.5 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.5
EV/EBITDA 18.8 12.0 11.4 10.2 10.4 8.4
EV / Total Assets 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1
EPS (fully diluted) 19.2 26.5 29.2 34.6 33.9 42.1
Cash EPS 20.8 28.5 31.4 36.7 36.2 44.5
DPS (3.2) (4.7) (5.8) (7.0) (7.1) (8.8)
Book Value 242.3 260.8 282.8 316.7 343.5 376.7
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 25.4 27.5 26.0 31.6 25.9 28.9
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
ROIC (Post-tax) 5.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 7.1 8.4
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leverage (x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Operating ROE 11.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 14.3 16.7
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 7.4 10.6 10.5 11.7 10.1 11.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 8.2 12.0 11.8 12.6 10.8 12.6
ROE 7.9 10.2 10.3 10.9 9.9 11.2
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
Inventory / Sales (days) 731 550 517 662 690 667
Receivables (days) 85 88 97 71 41 42
Payables (days) 255 242 288 413 400 434
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 831 641 615 704 692 667Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.4 0.37 0.35
Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 1.1 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.8
Int. Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 11.4 14.9 8.6 7.5 5.7 5.9
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Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Mahindra Lifeapaces
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)