Macroeconomic Issues from a European Perspective
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Transcript of Macroeconomic Issues from a European Perspective
Macroeconomic Issues Macroeconomic Issues from a European from a European
PerspectivePerspective
Fabrizio CoricelliFabrizio CoricelliEuro-Latin NetworkEuro-Latin Network
Madrid October 9, 2002Madrid October 9, 2002
Lessons fromLessons from EU EU EnlargementEnlargement
Institutional reforms before or with market liberalization“Real” (trade) integration hand in
hand with financial integrationSafety nets key for successful
reforms
IssuesIssues
“Real” and nominal convergence: satisfy inflation criteria while catching up in income levels. Choice of exchange rate regime
Speed of adoption of the Euro (two views)
Development of financial sector: low financial depth
Fiscal rules
…………....IssuesIssues
No mechanisms to avoid crises are present in the EU(currency crises in Italy, UK and Sweden at the beginning of 1990s)
Development of financial sector
Low financial depthLow financial depthDomestic Credit in percent of GDP, 2000Domestic Credit in percent of GDP, 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Roman
ia
Lithua
nia
Bulgari
a
Latvia
Hunga
ry
Poland
Estonia
Sloven
ia
Czech
Rep
.
Slovak
ia
Cypru
s
Malt
a
CEECs-10
AC-12
EURO AREA AVERAGE
Greece (1981 enlargement)
Portugal and Spain (1986 enlargement)
Source: IFS, Accession Countries' National Central Banks
Institutional Reforms…Institutional Reforms…
Importing institutions (against Rodrik’s view)
May not be optimal, but more credible
Safety nets to support reforms
……………….lead to.lead to
Credibility bonus due to accession to EU
Accession: anchor for market expectations
Lower spreads in international borrowing
Interest rate convergence
CreditworthinessCreditworthiness
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Dec-97 Oct-98 Aug-99 Jun-00 Apr-01 Feb-020
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450EMBI+
EMBI+ Bulgaria
EMBI+ Poland(RHS)
Interest Rate ConvergenceInterest Rate Convergence
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jun-93 Jul-94 Aug-95 Sep-96 Oct-97 Nov-98 Dec-99 Jan-01 Feb-02
Euribor Poland HungaryCzech Rep.
Potential drawbacksPotential drawbacks
Premature “eurosclerosis”: unemployment rates close to 20% in Poland and Slovakia
Large governments: high tax ratesRigidity in labor marketLarge implicit debt for pensions
Total expenditure (% of GDP)Total expenditure (% of GDP)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Bulgar
ia
Czech
Rep
.
Estonia
Hungary
Latvi
a
Lithuan
ia
Poland
Roman
ia
Slova
kia
Slove
nia
2000
2004EU
(45,8
Emerging market themesEmerging market themes
Integration has not reduced Integration has not reduced volatilityvolatility
Volatility is much higher than in the European Union
Although cycle is highly correlated: amplitude much higher
CEECs are small open economies
Correlation with EU cycleCorrelation with EU cycle
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
mar-94 lug-95 nov-96 mar-98 lug-99 nov-00 mar-02
EU
Poland
Hungary
VolatilityVolatility(standard deviation)(standard deviation)
GDPTerms of
trade
Real effective exchange
rate
Real interest
rate
Gov’t revenue/ GDP
CEECs 4,10 4,40 12,66 6,34 2,31
Latin America
3,74 8,70 18,00 13,18 2,19
Emerging Asia
4,11 5,92 8,65 2,52 1,82
Advanced countries
2,09 3,73 5,90 2,07 1,02
Financial sectorFinancial sector
Can magnify the cycleSmall and medium size firms are
leading growth but they are generally cut off from borrowing and thus from the possibility of smoothing output decline
Alternative to bank credit: trade credit, higher risk (chain)
Dominant role of foreign banks does not help
Vulnerability to crisesVulnerability to crises
Government debt: not high as a ratio to GDP
Even less in terms of tax revenues (compared to LAC)
However, large share of foreign debt (as in Lac)
Debt indicatorsDebt indicatorsPublic debtin % GDP
Public foreign% of total
Public debt % of revenues
Public foreign% of revenues
Bulgaria 80,6 91,4 185,3 39,8
Czech Rep.
17,3 10,5 42,6 4,3
Estonia 5,3 67,4 13,6 26,2
Hungary 58,2 n.a. 126,8 n.a.
Latvia 13,0 60,9 43,3 18,3
Lithuania 28,3 77,8 93,7 23,5
Poland 40,9 48,8 103,3 19,3
Romania 31,6 44,9 100,3 14,1
Slovakia 32,8 49,0 92,9 17,3
Slovenia 25,8 48,8 60,3 20,9
avg. CEECs
33,4 55,5 86,2 20,4
ExternalExternal constraintconstraintExternal debt External debt FDI inflow Current account % GDP % exports % GDP % GDP
Bulgaria 86,4 148,3 8,3 5,9Czech Rep. 42,8 56,2 9,1 4,8Estonia 61,4 64,6 6,4 6,8Hungary 67,3 97,3 2,6 3,9Latvia 65,9 144,0 5,6 6,8Lithuania 42,9 95,1 3,3 6,0Poland 42,9 214,5 5,9 6,3Romania 27,0 81,7 2,7 3,7Slovakia 56,3 76,5 10,7 3,7Slovenia 34,3 58,1 0,2 3,3
Avg. CEECs 52,7 103,6 5,5 5,1Latin America 39,0
ExternalExternal constraint…..constraint…..
Ext. Debt high in terms of GDP butmuch lower (than in LACs) in terms
of exportsFDI inflows match current account
deficitPrivatization-related FDIs very
largeCurrent flows unlikely to be
sustained
Non-FDI flowsNon-FDI flows
Pro-cyclicalSharp reduction after Russian
crisis
Growth and capital flowsGrowth and capital flowsPolandPoland
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Q4 19
96
Q1 19
97
Q2 19
97
Q3 19
97
Q4 19
97
Q1 19
98
Q2 19
98
Q3 19
98
Q4 19
98
Q1 19
99
Q2 19
99
Q3 19
99
Q4 19
99
Q1 20
00
Q2 20
00
Q3 20
00
Q4 20
00
Q1 20
01
Q2 20
01
Q3 20
01
Q4 20
01
Q1 20
02
Q2 20
02
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0Non FDI capital flows
Gdp a/a%
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Q4
1995
Q2
1996
Q4
1996
Q2
1997
Q4
1997
Q2
1998
Q4
1998
Q2
1999
Q4
1999
Q2
2000
Q4
2000
Q2
2001
Q4
2001
Q2
2002
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07Non FDI Capital Flows
GDP a/a%
Fiscal policy pro-cyclicalFiscal policy pro-cyclical
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
output gaps
chan
ges
in C
AB
After entryAfter entry??
Full liberalization of K-flowsShort term K-flows bound to
increaseExchange rate policy?Fiscal rules?
Risks aheadRisks ahead
Delayed entry in EuroEU fiscal rules inappropriateMaastricht criterion is an ex post
limit on deficit with a pro-cyclical bias
Need for ex ante expenditure rules
Conclusions…….Conclusions…….
Trade integration possibly an insurance for sudden capital flow reversals
Candidate countries are affected by “convergence play”: expectation of entry in the eurozone (interest rates converge and spreads on international borrowing very low)……….
…………..Conclusions..Conclusions
However, postponing accession can be a severe shock……….
Test of capability to manage large capital inflows yet to come
Exchange rate policy a key issueMechanisms to avoid currency and
financial crises at the EU level could be devised