Macroeconomic Indicators
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CURRENT STATISTICS Economic & Political Weekly EPW June 20, 2015 vol l no 25 175 EPW Research Foundation Settlement volumes of the forex segment, as reported by the CCIL, have registered a 9.1% growth to $1,179 billion during the 1 April to 12 June 2015 period from $1,080 billion in the corresponding period of 2014–15 due to a sharp increase in the volumes of Forward, Tom and Cash segments. Trading activity in the Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligation segment has also recorded a significant 27.7% growth during the same period. But, trade volumes of government securities in the secondary market have witnessed a 5.1% fall on account of a 9.5% reduction in outright volumes. Macroeconomic Indicators Index of Industrial Production Variations (%) (Base: 2004–05 = 100) Weights April* Over Year-on-Year Fiscal Year so Far Full Financial Year (Avg April–March) 2015 Month Current Previous Current Previous 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11 General Index 100.0 179.7 -9.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.7 176.8(2.8) 172.0(-0.1) 172.2(1.1) 170.3(2.9) 165.5(8.2) Mining and Quarrying 14.2 123.3 -17.1 0.6 1.7 0.6 1.7 126.5(1.4) 124.7(-0.6) 125.5(-2.3) 128.5(-2.0) 131.0(5.2) Manufacturing 75.5 190.6 -9.4 5.1 3.0 5.1 3.0 186.0(2.3) 181.9(-0.8) 183.3(1.3) 181.0(3.0) 175.7(9.0) Capital Goods 8.8 261.2 -20.9 11.1 13.4 11.1 13.4 257.7(6.2) 242.6(-3.6) 251.6(-6.0) 267.8(-4.0) 278.9(14.8) Consumer Durables 8.5 258.7 -1.0 1.3 -7.7 1.3 -7.7 231.1(-12.5) 264.2(-12.2) 301.1(2.0) 295.1(2.6) 287.7(14.2) Electricity 10.3 177.2 0.5 -0.5 11.9 -0.5 11.9 178.6(8.4) 164.7(6.1) 155.2(4.0) 149.3(8.2) 138.0(5.6) * Indices for the month are Quick Estimates. Variations (%): Point-to-Point Cost of Living Indices Weights Latest Over Year-on-Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year Month Month Current Previous 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11 Industrial Workers (IW) (2001=100) 100.0 256 4 0.8 5.8 7.1 0.8 1.3 6.3 6.7 11.4 8.6 8.8 Agricultural Labourers (AL) (1986–87=100) 100.0 805 4 0.2 4.4 8.4 0.2 1.0 5.2 8.4 12.6 6.8 9.1 Consumer Price Indices (CPI): (Base: 2012=100)* Combined General Index (All Groups) 100.0 122 5 0.7 5.0 8.5 1.2 1.4 5.3 8.3 10.4 9.4 - Food Price Index 39.1 125 5 0.8 5.1 9.0 1.3 2.4 6.3 8.3 12.0 8.3 - Miscellaneous 28.3 116 5 0.9 3.8 7.4 1.2 0.4 3.1 7.3 7.4 8.2 - Rural 122 5 0.7 5.5 9.0 1.1 1.2 5.7 8.9 10.5 8.7 - Urban 121 5 0.8 4.4 8.0 1.3 1.7 4.7 7.9 10.4 10.3 - * The CSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revised CPI base year from 2010=100 to 2012=100 and disseminate data for all-India and states/UTs separately for rural, urban and combined with effect from January 2015. Note: Superscript numeral 4 denotes April 2015 and 5 denotes May 2015. Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices in India Variations (%): Point-to-Point (Base: 2004–05 = 100) Weights May* Over Year-on-Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Financial Year 2015 Month Current Previous 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11 All Commodities 100.0 177.7 1.0 -2.4 6.2 0.9 0.9 -2.3 6.0 5.7 7.7 9.7 Primary Articles 20.1 244.9 1.3 -0.8 8.6 2.5 3.1 -0.2 7.3 7.4 10.4 13.4 Food Articles 14.3 253.9 0.5 3.8 9.6 1.8 4.3 6.3 9.6 8.6 10.1 9.4 Non-Food Articles 4.3 213.9 5.1 -2.2 4.9 5.6 0.5 -6.9 4.9 9.3 -0.8 27.3 Minerals 1.5 247.7 0.4 -28.4 8.1 1.8 0.1 -29.6 -1.8 -2.0 34.5 15.2 Fuel and Power 14.9 189.8 3.0 -10.5 10.5 1.0 -1.0 -12.2 11.8 7.8 12.8 12.5 Manufactured Products 65.0 154.1 0.2 -0.6 3.9 0.1 0.6 -0.2 3.7 4.3 5.2 7.4 Food Products 10.0 171.7 1.1 -0.6 3.3 0.9 2.2 0.6 2.1 7.5 6.2 2.4 Food Index (computed) 24.3 220.2 0.7 2.3 7.5 1.6 3.6 4.4 7.0 8.2 8.7 6.8 All Commodities (Monthly average basis) 100.0 180.2 - -2.5 5.9 -2.5 5.9 2.0 6.0 7.4 8.9 9.6 * Figures for the latest two months are provisional. Variation Money and Banking (Rs crore) Outstanding Over Month Year-on-Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year 2015 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 Money Supply (M 3 ) (29 May) 10839280 -8190(-0.1) 1072970(11.0) 263610(2.5) 248920(2.6) 1058280(11.1) 1127570(13.4) 1024980(13.9) Currency with Public 1445770 14750(1.0) 136570(10.4) 58780(4.2) 63380(5.1) 141170(11.3) 104760(9.2) 118420(11.6) Deposit Money with Banks 9382000 -22120(-0.2) 927010(11.0) 207900(2.3) 185390(2.2) 904500(10.9) 1024090(14.1) 906140(14.3) of which: Demand Deposits 912330 -16430(-1.8) 66270(7.8) 15980(1.8) 34080(4.2) 84370(10.4) 58760(7.8) 42240(5.9) Time Deposits 8469670 -5690(-0.1) 860740(11.3) 191920(2.3) 151310(2.0) 820130(11.0) 965330(14.9) 863900(15.3) Net Bank Credit to Government 3185770 31560(1.0) 86820(2.8) 170650(5.7) 54080(1.8) -29750(-1.0) 335850(12.4) 337320(14.2) Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 7115090 -47060(-0.7) 613250(9.4) 59280(0.8) 56540(0.9) 610510(9.5) 777440(13.7) 709420(14.3) Net Foreign Exchange Assets 2309970 9740(0.4) 366110(18.8) 107860(4.9) 19920(1.0) 278170(14.5) 287280(17.6) 92880(6.0) Banking Sector’s Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 1790980 2420(0.1) -5050(-0.3) 74180(4.3) -118030(-6.2) -197260(-10.3) 275000(16.8) 116530(7.7) of which: RBI’s 856940 -3130(-0.4) 30280(3.7) 62780(7.9) -16660(-2.0) -49160(-5.8) 150820(21.8) 88650(14.7) Reserve Money (5 June) 1909750 5330(0.3) 178150(10.3) -18720(-1.0) -1140(-0.1) 195730(11.3) 217850(14.4) 88540(6.2) Net RBI Credit to Centre 467440 51880(-) -228850(-) 98890(-) -1350(-) -329090 107140 56080 Scheduled Commercial Banks (29 May) Aggregate Deposits 8789270 -23420(-0.3) 905690(11.5) 255990(3.0) 178030(2.3) 827730(10.7) 955100(14.1) 841360(14.2) Demand 818650 -16710(-2.0) 68600(9.1) 24620(3.1) 36130(5.1) 80110(11.2) 51620(7.8) 36970(5.9) Time 7970630 -6690(-0.1) 837090(11.7) 231370(3.0) 141900(2.0) 747620(10.7) 903480(14.8) 804400(15.2) Investments (for SLR purposes) 2623920 36850(1.4) 331430(14.5) 132100(5.3) 79670(3.6) 279000(12.6) 206720(10.3) 268320(15.4) Bank Credit 6633420 -46540(-0.7) 591900(9.8) 97000(1.5) 47420(0.8) 542320(9.0) 733640(13.9) 648610(14.1) Non-Food Credit 6516880 -58990(-0.9) 591930(10.0) 74880(1.2) 29330(0.5) 546380(9.3) 731580(14.2) 633490(14.0) Capital Market Fiscal Year So Far 2014–15 End of Fiscal Year 12 June 2015 Month Ago Year Ago Trough Peak Trough Peak 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 S&P BSE SENSEX (Base:1978–79=100) 26425(3.3) 26877 25576(34.3) 26371 29044 22277 29682 27957(24.9) 22386(18.8) 18836(8.2) S&P BSE-100 (Base: 1983–84=100) 8074(3.8) 8244 7775(35.0) 8059 8980 6680 9107 8607(28.3) 6707(18.1) 5679(-38.0) S&P BSE-200 (1989–90=100) 3339(6.7) 3395 3128(35.0) 3334 3691 2678 3723 3538(31.9) 2681(17.2) 2288(6.0) CNX Nifty (Base: 3 Nov 1995=1000) 7983(4.4) 8127 7650(32.8) 7965 8834 6653 8996 8491(26.7) 6704(18.0) 5683(7.3) Net FII Investment in Equities (US $ Million)* 168878(8.6) 168954 155445(10.0) - - - - 168116(12.3) 149745(9.9) 136304(23.4) * Cumulative total since November 1992 untill period end. Foreign Trade May* Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year 2015 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11 2009–10 2008-09 Exports: Rs crore 142573 280973(-12.4) 320764(19.0) 1897026(-0.4) 1905011(16.6) 1634319(11.5) 1465959(28.3) 1142922(35.2) 845534(0.6) 840754(28.2) US $ mn 22347 44401(73.2) 25634(-48.0) 310534(-1.2) 314416 (4.7) 300401(-1.8) 305964(21.8) 251136(40.5) 178751(-3.5) 185295(13.6) Imports: Rs crore 208965 416346(-7.1) 448267(-5.1) 2734049(0.7) 2715434(1.7) 2669162(13.8) 2345463(39.3) 1683467(23.4) 1363736(-0.8) 1374434(35.8) US $ mn 32753 65800(-12.2) 74953(-13.2) 447548(-0.6) 450214 (-8.3) 490737(0.3) 489320(32.3) 369769(28.2) 288373(-5.0) 303696(20.7) Non-POL US $ mn 24214 49818(4.9) 47511(-19.7) 309287(8.4) 285443 (-12.6) 326696(-2.3) 334352(26.7) 263805(31.1) 201237(-4.2) 210029(22.2) Balance of Trade: Rs crore -66392 -135372 -127503 -837023 -810423 -1034843 -879504 -540545 -518202 -533680 US $ mn -10406 -21399 -21321 -137014 -135798 -190336 -183356 -118633 -109621 -118401 * Provisional figures. Trade balance in services amounts to $5688 (Rs 35694 cr) in April 2014–15. Foreign Exchange Reserves (excluding Variation Over gold but including revaluation effects) 5 June 6 June 31 March Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year 2015 2014 2015 Month Ago Year Ago 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–11 2011–12 2010–11 Rs crore 2117640 1717200 2010400 -980 400440 107240 29460 322660 251570 82800 108086 73038 US $ mn 332061 290083 321309 583 41979 10753 9260 40486 16769 -485 -14361 19208 Figures in brackets are percentage variations over the specified or over the comparable period of the previous year. (–) not relevant. -: not available. [Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available on our website: http://www.epwrf.in]. For time series data in Excel format visit http://www.epwrf.res.in/currentstat.aspx
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Macroeconomic Indicators
Transcript of Macroeconomic Indicators
CURRENT STATISTICS
Economic & Political Weekly EPW June 20, 2015 vol l no 25 175
EPW Research Foundation
Settlement volumes of the forex segment, as reported by the CCIL, have registered a 9.1% growth to $1,179 billion during the 1 April to 12 June 2015 period from $1,080 billion in the corresponding period of 2014–15 due to a sharp increase in the volumes of Forward, Tom and Cash segments. Trading activity in the Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligation segment has also recorded a significant 27.7% growth during the same period. But, trade volumes of government securities in the secondary market have witnessed a 5.1% fall on account of a 9.5% reduction in outright volumes.
Macroeconomic Indicators
Index of Industrial Production Variations (%)
(Base: 2004–05 = 100) Weights April* Over Year-on-Year Fiscal Year so Far Full Financial Year (Avg April–March) 2015 Month Current Previous Current Previous 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11General Index 100.0 179.7 -9.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.7 176.8(2.8) 172.0(-0.1) 172.2(1.1) 170.3(2.9) 165.5(8.2)Mining and Quarrying 14.2 123.3 -17.1 0.6 1.7 0.6 1.7 126.5(1.4) 124.7(-0.6) 125.5(-2.3) 128.5(-2.0) 131.0(5.2)Manufacturing 75.5 190.6 -9.4 5.1 3.0 5.1 3.0 186.0(2.3) 181.9(-0.8) 183.3(1.3) 181.0(3.0) 175.7(9.0) Capital Goods 8.8 261.2 -20.9 11.1 13.4 11.1 13.4 257.7(6.2) 242.6(-3.6) 251.6(-6.0) 267.8(-4.0) 278.9(14.8) Consumer Durables 8.5 258.7 -1.0 1.3 -7.7 1.3 -7.7 231.1(-12.5) 264.2(-12.2) 301.1(2.0) 295.1(2.6) 287.7(14.2)Electricity 10.3 177.2 0.5 -0.5 11.9 -0.5 11.9 178.6(8.4) 164.7(6.1) 155.2(4.0) 149.3(8.2) 138.0(5.6)* Indices for the month are Quick Estimates. Variations (%): Point-to-PointCost of Living Indices Weights Latest Over Year-on-Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year Month Month Current Previous 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11Industrial Workers (IW) (2001=100) 100.0 2564 0.8 5.8 7.1 0.8 1.3 6.3 6.7 11.4 8.6 8.8Agricultural Labourers (AL) (1986–87=100) 100.0 8054 0.2 4.4 8.4 0.2 1.0 5.2 8.4 12.6 6.8 9.1 Consumer Price Indices (CPI): (Base: 2012=100)* Combined General Index (All Groups) 100.0 1225 0.7 5.0 8.5 1.2 1.4 5.3 8.3 10.4 9.4 - Food Price Index 39.1 1255 0.8 5.1 9.0 1.3 2.4 6.3 8.3 12.0 8.3 - Miscellaneous 28.3 1165 0.9 3.8 7.4 1.2 0.4 3.1 7.3 7.4 8.2 - Rural 1225 0.7 5.5 9.0 1.1 1.2 5.7 8.9 10.5 8.7 - Urban 1215 0.8 4.4 8.0 1.3 1.7 4.7 7.9 10.4 10.3 -* The CSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revised CPI base year from 2010=100 to 2012=100 and disseminate data for all-India and states/UTs separately for rural, urban and combined with effect from January 2015.Note: Superscript numeral 4 denotes April 2015 and 5 denotes May 2015.
Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices in India Variations (%): Point-to-Point
(Base: 2004–05 = 100) Weights May* Over Year-on-Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Financial Year 2015 Month Current Previous 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11All Commodities 100.0 177.7 1.0 -2.4 6.2 0.9 0.9 -2.3 6.0 5.7 7.7 9.7Primary Articles 20.1 244.9 1.3 -0.8 8.6 2.5 3.1 -0.2 7.3 7.4 10.4 13.4 Food Articles 14.3 253.9 0.5 3.8 9.6 1.8 4.3 6.3 9.6 8.6 10.1 9.4 Non-Food Articles 4.3 213.9 5.1 -2.2 4.9 5.6 0.5 -6.9 4.9 9.3 -0.8 27.3 Minerals 1.5 247.7 0.4 -28.4 8.1 1.8 0.1 -29.6 -1.8 -2.0 34.5 15.2Fuel and Power 14.9 189.8 3.0 -10.5 10.5 1.0 -1.0 -12.2 11.8 7.8 12.8 12.5Manufactured Products 65.0 154.1 0.2 -0.6 3.9 0.1 0.6 -0.2 3.7 4.3 5.2 7.4Food Products 10.0 171.7 1.1 -0.6 3.3 0.9 2.2 0.6 2.1 7.5 6.2 2.4Food Index (computed) 24.3 220.2 0.7 2.3 7.5 1.6 3.6 4.4 7.0 8.2 8.7 6.8All Commodities (Monthly average basis) 100.0 180.2 - -2.5 5.9 -2.5 5.9 2.0 6.0 7.4 8.9 9.6* Figures for the latest two months are provisional.
Variation Money and Banking (Rs crore) Outstanding Over Month Year-on-Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year 2015 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13Money Supply (M3) (29 May) 10839280 -8190(-0.1) 1072970(11.0) 263610(2.5) 248920(2.6) 1058280(11.1) 1127570(13.4) 1024980(13.9) Currency with Public 1445770 14750(1.0) 136570(10.4) 58780(4.2) 63380(5.1) 141170(11.3) 104760(9.2) 118420(11.6) Deposit Money with Banks 9382000 -22120(-0.2) 927010(11.0) 207900(2.3) 185390(2.2) 904500(10.9) 1024090(14.1) 906140(14.3) of which: Demand Deposits 912330 -16430(-1.8) 66270(7.8) 15980(1.8) 34080(4.2) 84370(10.4) 58760(7.8) 42240(5.9) Time Deposits 8469670 -5690(-0.1) 860740(11.3) 191920(2.3) 151310(2.0) 820130(11.0) 965330(14.9) 863900(15.3) Net Bank Credit to Government 3185770 31560(1.0) 86820(2.8) 170650(5.7) 54080(1.8) -29750(-1.0) 335850(12.4) 337320(14.2) Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 7115090 -47060(-0.7) 613250(9.4) 59280(0.8) 56540(0.9) 610510(9.5) 777440(13.7) 709420(14.3) Net Foreign Exchange Assets 2309970 9740(0.4) 366110(18.8) 107860(4.9) 19920(1.0) 278170(14.5) 287280(17.6) 92880(6.0) Banking Sector’s Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 1790980 2420(0.1) -5050(-0.3) 74180(4.3) -118030(-6.2) -197260(-10.3) 275000(16.8) 116530(7.7) of which: RBI’s 856940 -3130(-0.4) 30280(3.7) 62780(7.9) -16660(-2.0) -49160(-5.8) 150820(21.8) 88650(14.7)Reserve Money (5 June) 1909750 5330(0.3) 178150(10.3) -18720(-1.0) -1140(-0.1) 195730(11.3) 217850(14.4) 88540(6.2) Net RBI Credit to Centre 467440 51880(-) -228850(-) 98890(-) -1350(-) -329090 107140 56080Scheduled Commercial Banks (29 May) Aggregate Deposits 8789270 -23420(-0.3) 905690(11.5) 255990(3.0) 178030(2.3) 827730(10.7) 955100(14.1) 841360(14.2) Demand 818650 -16710(-2.0) 68600(9.1) 24620(3.1) 36130(5.1) 80110(11.2) 51620(7.8) 36970(5.9) Time 7970630 -6690(-0.1) 837090(11.7) 231370(3.0) 141900(2.0) 747620(10.7) 903480(14.8) 804400(15.2) Investments (for SLR purposes) 2623920 36850(1.4) 331430(14.5) 132100(5.3) 79670(3.6) 279000(12.6) 206720(10.3) 268320(15.4) Bank Credit 6633420 -46540(-0.7) 591900(9.8) 97000(1.5) 47420(0.8) 542320(9.0) 733640(13.9) 648610(14.1) Non-Food Credit 6516880 -58990(-0.9) 591930(10.0) 74880(1.2) 29330(0.5) 546380(9.3) 731580(14.2) 633490(14.0)
Capital Market Fiscal Year So Far 2014–15 End of Fiscal Year
12 June 2015 Month Ago Year Ago Trough Peak Trough Peak 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13S&P BSE SENSEX (Base:1978–79=100) 26425(3.3) 26877 25576(34.3) 26371 29044 22277 29682 27957(24.9) 22386(18.8) 18836(8.2)S&P BSE-100 (Base: 1983–84=100) 8074(3.8) 8244 7775(35.0) 8059 8980 6680 9107 8607(28.3) 6707(18.1) 5679(-38.0)S&P BSE-200 (1989–90=100) 3339(6.7) 3395 3128(35.0) 3334 3691 2678 3723 3538(31.9) 2681(17.2) 2288(6.0)CNX Nifty (Base: 3 Nov 1995=1000) 7983(4.4) 8127 7650(32.8) 7965 8834 6653 8996 8491(26.7) 6704(18.0) 5683(7.3)Net FII Investment in Equities (US $ Million)* 168878(8.6) 168954 155445(10.0) - - - - 168116(12.3) 149745(9.9) 136304(23.4)* Cumulative total since November 1992 untill period end.
Foreign Trade May* Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year
2015 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–13 2011–12 2010–11 2009–10 2008-09Exports: Rs crore 142573 280973(-12.4) 320764(19.0) 1897026(-0.4) 1905011(16.6) 1634319(11.5) 1465959(28.3) 1142922(35.2) 845534(0.6) 840754(28.2) US $ mn 22347 44401(73.2) 25634(-48.0) 310534(-1.2) 314416 (4.7) 300401(-1.8) 305964(21.8) 251136(40.5) 178751(-3.5) 185295(13.6)Imports: Rs crore 208965 416346(-7.1) 448267(-5.1) 2734049(0.7) 2715434(1.7) 2669162(13.8) 2345463(39.3) 1683467(23.4) 1363736(-0.8) 1374434(35.8) US $ mn 32753 65800(-12.2) 74953(-13.2) 447548(-0.6) 450214 (-8.3) 490737(0.3) 489320(32.3) 369769(28.2) 288373(-5.0) 303696(20.7) Non-POL US $ mn 24214 49818(4.9) 47511(-19.7) 309287(8.4) 285443 (-12.6) 326696(-2.3) 334352(26.7) 263805(31.1) 201237(-4.2) 210029(22.2)Balance of Trade: Rs crore -66392 -135372 -127503 -837023 -810423 -1034843 -879504 -540545 -518202 -533680 US $ mn -10406 -21399 -21321 -137014 -135798 -190336 -183356 -118633 -109621 -118401* Provisional figures.Trade balance in services amounts to $5688 (Rs 35694 cr) in April 2014–15.
Foreign Exchange Reserves (excluding Variation Over
gold but including revaluation effects) 5 June 6 June 31 March Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year 2015 2014 2015 Month Ago Year Ago 2015–16 2014–15 2014–15 2013–14 2012–11 2011–12 2010–11Rs crore 2117640 1717200 2010400 -980 400440 107240 29460 322660 251570 82800 108086 73038US $ mn 332061 290083 321309 583 41979 10753 9260 40486 16769 -485 -14361 19208Figures in brackets are percentage variations over the specified or over the comparable period of the previous year. (–) not relevant. -: not available.[Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available on our website: http://www.epwrf.in]. For time series data in Excel format visit http://www.epwrf.res.in/currentstat.aspx
