Macroecology in Space and Time - univie.ac.atcvl.univie.ac.at/macro2017/Book of...

Macroecology in Space and Time

10th Annual Meeting of the

Specialist Group on Macroecology

of the Ecological Society of

Germany Austria and Switzerland

19th – 21st April 2017, University of

Vienna, Austria

Local organizing committee

Stefan Dullinger

Franz Essl

Karl Hülber Vienna

Bernd Lenzner

Department of Botany and Biodiversity

Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology

University of Vienna

Rennweg 14

1030 Vienna, Austria

Scientific committee

Karlheinz Erb, Institute of Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria University of Klagenfurt

Konrad Fiedler, Division Tropical Ecology and Animal Biodiversity, University of Vienna

Mathias Harzhauser, Geological-Paleontological Department, Museum of Natural History, Vienna

Helmut Haberl, Institute of Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria University of Klagenfurt

Robert Junker, Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Salzburg

Fridolin Krausmann, Institute of Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria University of Klagenfurt

Christian Lexer, Division of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Vienna

Dietmar Moser, Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, University of

Vienna

Harald Pauli, Gloria-Coordination, Austrian Academy of Sciences & University of Natural

Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU)

Ovidiu Paun, Division of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Vienna

Wolfgang Rabitsch, Department of Biodiversity and Nature Conservation, Environment Agency

Austria

Gerald Schneeweiss Division of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Vienna

Peter Schönswetter, Department of Botany, University of Innsbruck

Christian Schulze, Division Tropical Ecology and Animal Biodiversity, University of Vienna

Rupert Seidl, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life

Sciences Vienna (BOKU)

Karin Tremetsberger, Department of Botany, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences

Vienna (BOKU)

Manuela Winkler, Gloria-Coordination, Austrian Academy of Sciences & University of Natural

Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU)

Harald Zechmeister, Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology,

University of Vienna

Programme

Time - Start Time - End

12:00

13:00 13:15

13:15 13:30

13:30 13:45

13:45 14:00

14:00 14:15

14:15 14:30

14:30 14:45

Lokatis et al. The island rule as a hierarchy of hypothesis

14:45 15:00

Fritz et al.Mammalian diversity over twenty million year: dynamics of

different trophic levels and the effects of primary productivity

15:00 15:15Heidrich et al.

The dark side of Lepidoptera: A continental gradient in the

colour lightness of assemblages of geometrid moths

15:15 15:30 König et al. Dissecting global turnover in vascular plants

15:30 15:45Fandos et al.

There is the migratory connectivity in small migratory birds

driven by geography or environmental factors?

15:45 16:00

16:00 16:15

16:15 16:30Dale et al. The role of biomes in the diversification of Australian Acacia

16:30 16:45Koubínová et al.

A RADseq approach to the Maculinea alcon paradox: extreme

ecological adaptation without genetic differentiation

16:45 17:00Sefc et al. Shifting barriers and phenotypic diversification by hybridization

17:00 17:15Ringelberg et al.

Testing global-scale succulent biome phylogenetic

conservatism in legumes

17:15 17:30Weigelt et al.

A global inventory of floras and traits for macroecology and

biogeography

17:30 17:45

Harmáčková et al.

Phylogenetic and functional diversity of Australian birds is

shaped by geographic and climatic history, not environmental

diversity

17:45 18:00 Kuppler et al. Macroecological patterns of intraspecific variation

18:00 18:15Reitalu et al.

Novel insights into post-glacial vegetation change: functional

and phylogenetic diversity in pollen records

18:15 18:30

Op

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Welcome Adress

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Christian HofComing of age? Reflections on a decade of

macroecology specialist group meetings

4 10th Annual Meeting of the Specialist Group on Macroecology of the GfÖ

Vienna, Austria 19.-21.04.2017

Time - Start Time - End09:00 09:15

09:15 09:30

09:30 09:45

09:45 10:00

10:00 10:15

10:15 10:30

10:30 10:45Filz

Assessing the invasion risk posed by exotic pet trade: Are we

lulled into a false sense of security?

10:45 11:00Irl et al.

Hierarchical climate filtering: towards a mechanistic concept

of plant invasion on islands

11:00 11:15

Klonner et al.

How do climate warming and cultivation intensity interact

regarding the spread of potential future plant invaders in

Europe?

11:15 11:30 Seebens et al. The temporal development of global spread of alien species

11:30 11:45Seidl et al.

The potential impact of invasive pests on carbon storage in

Europe's forests

11:45 12:00Wagner et al.

Regional and local environmental drivers of alien plant

invasions in European woodlands

12:00 12:15

12:15 12:30

12:30 12:45

12:45 13:00

13:00 13:15

13:15 13:30

13:30 13:45

13:45 14:00

14:00 14:15

14:15 14:30

14:30 14:45

Carroll et al.

Hierarchical regression modelling as an important framework

to infer abiotic change from plant community composition

using Ellenberg indicator values

14:45 15:00Junker

The potential of n-dimensional hypervolumes in (macro-)

ecology

15:00 15:15Karger et al.

New high resolution climate data to track recent climate

change in global ecosystems

15:15 15:30Carl et al.

Computing spatially corrected accuracy measures in species

distribution modelling

15:30 15:45

15:45 16:00

16:00 16:15 Lorel et al. Birds communities structure through available energy

16:15 16:30da Fonte et al.

Diversity patterns of amphibians in the Amazonian floating

meadows

16:30 16:45

Radinger et al.

The future distribution and diversity of river fish: the complex

interplay of climate and land use changes and species

dispersal

16:45 17:00Senf et al.

Similarities and differences in forest disturbance dynamics

across the European temperate forest biome

17:00 17:15Rumpf et al.

Alpine plants at the edge - dynamics of elevational range limit

shifts and their implications

17:15 17:30Noroozi et al.

Areas of endemism in the Iranian plateau identified based on

the hyperdiverse plant family Asteraceae

17:30 17:45Szenteczki et al.

Microbial communities in Maucalinea alcon catterpillars

change following trophic shift

17:45 18:00Brändle et al.

Species richness and species composition of mycorrhiza and

wood-inhabiting fungi on trees and shrubs in Germany

19:00

Coffee Break

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Jonathan Jaeschke HoHs and other new tools for ecological synthesis

Coffee Break

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Time - Start Time - End09:00 09:15 Pinkert et al. Understanding the drivers of cross-taxon diversity

09:15 09:30

Boulangeat et al.

The relative role of vegetation-herbivores interactions, land-use, fire

and climate in explaining vegetation dynamics across Europe through

the Holocene

09:30 09:45

Alagador & Cerdeira

The plan, the budget, the climate, the people – an evaluation of

limiting effects of species persistence in the near future within

conservation areas

09:45 10:00Larcombe et al. Is species diversity density-dependent, density-independent, or both?

10:00 10:15Zurell et al.

Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific

interaction mechanisms at different scales?

10:15 10:30

10:30 10:45

10:45 11:00Steinbauer et al.

Long-term changes in species richness on mountain summits across

Europe

11:00 11:15Huang et al.

The relationship between extinction and climate change in space and

time

11:15 11:30 Kienle et al. Topographic-driven isolation - a global driver of endemism?

11:30 11:45Lamprecht et al.

Do alpine plant communities respond differently to climate change

impacts? The Alps versus Mediterranean mountains

11:45 12:00Schweiger et al. Environmental predictability - A neglected dimension of climate change

12:00 12:15 Higgins et al. End of the line for paleo-relicts?

12:15 12:30

12:30 12:45

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Concluding remarks + Poster Award



Contents Local organizing committee .............................................................................................................................. 2

Scientific committee .......................................................................................................................................... 2

Programme ........................................................................................................................................................ 3

HoHs and other new tools for ecological synthesis .......................................................................................... 8

Coming of age? Reflections on a decade of macroecology specialist group meetings ..................................... 9

The Island Rule as a Hierarchy of Hypotheses ................................................................................................. 10

Mammalian diversity over twenty million years: dynamics of different trophic levels and the effects of

primary productivity ........................................................................................................................................ 11

The dark side of Lepidoptera: A continental gradient in the colour lightness of assemblages of geometrid

moths ............................................................................................................................................................... 12

Dissecting global turnover in vascular plants .................................................................................................. 13

There is the migratory connectivity in small migratory birds driven by geography or environmental factors?

......................................................................................................................................................................... 14

The role of biomes in the diversification of Australian Acacia ........................................................................ 15

A RADseq approach to the Maculinea alcon paradox: extreme ecological adaptation without genetic

differentiation.................................................................................................................................................. 16

Shifting barriers and phenotypic diversification by hybridization .................................................................. 17

Testing global-scale succulent biome phylogenetic conservatism in legumes ............................................... 18

A global inventory of floras and traits for macroecology and biogeography .................................................. 19

Phylogenetic and functional diversity of Australian birds is shaped by geographic and climatic history, not

environmental diversity................................................................................................................................... 20

Macroecological patterns of intraspecific variation ........................................................................................ 21

Novel insights into post-glacial vegetation change: functional and phylogenetic diversity in pollen records 22

Assessing the invasion risk posed by exotic pet trade: Are we lulled into a false sense of security? ............. 23

Hierarchical climatic filtering: towards a mechanistic concept of plant invasion on islands .......................... 24

How do climate warming and cultivation intensity interact regarding the spread of potential future plant

invaders in Europe? ......................................................................................................................................... 25

The temporal development of the global spread of alien species .................................................................. 26

The potential impact of invasive pests on carbon storage in Europe’s forests .............................................. 27

Regional and local environmental drivers of alien plant invasions in European woodlands .......................... 28

Viktoria Wagner, Milan Chytrý, Martin Večeřa, Jonathan Lenoir, Jens-Christian Svenning, Borja Jiménez-

Alfaro, Jan Pergl, Petr Pyšek, and data contributors ....................................................................................... 28



Hierarchical regression modelling as an improved framework to infer abiotic change from plant community

composition using Ellenberg indicator values ................................................................................................. 29

The potential of n-dimensional hypervolumes in (macro-) ecology ............................................................... 30

New high resolution climate data to track recent climate change in global ecosystems ............................... 31

Computing spatially corrected accuracy measures in species distribution modelling ................................... 32

Birds communities structure through available energy .................................................................................. 33

Diversity patterns of amphibians in the Amazonian floating meadows ......................................................... 34

The future distribution and diversity of river fish: the complex interplay of climate and land use changes

and species dispersal ....................................................................................................................................... 35

Similarities and differences in forest disturbance dynamics across the European temperate forest biome . 36

Alpine plants at the edge - dynamics of elevational range limit shifts and their implications ....................... 37

Areas of endemism in the Iranian plateau identified based on the hyperdiverse plant family Asteraceae ... 38

Microbial communities in Maculinea alcon caterpillars change following trophic shift ................................ 39

Species richness and species composition of mycorrhiza and wood-inhabiting fungi on trees and shrubs in

Germany .......................................................................................................................................................... 40

Understanding the drivers of cross-taxon diversity ........................................................................................ 41

The relative role of vegetation-herbivores interactions, land-use, fire and climate in explaining vegetation

dynamics across Europe through the Holocene .............................................................................................. 42

The plan, the budget, the climate, the people – an evaluation of limiting effects of species persistence in

the near future within conservation areas ...................................................................................................... 43

Is species diversity density-dependent, density-independent, or both? ........................................................ 44

Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific interaction mechanisms at different scales?

......................................................................................................................................................................... 45

Long-term changes in species richness on mountain summits across Europe ............................................... 46

The relationship between extinction and climate change in space and time ................................................. 47

Topographic-driven isolation – a global driver of endemism? ........................................................................ 48

Do alpine plant communities respond differently to climate change impacts? - The Alps versus

Mediterranean mountains .............................................................................................................................. 49

Environmental predictability – A neglected dimension of climate change ..................................................... 50

End of the line for paleo-relicts? ..................................................................................................................... 51

Index ................................................................................................................................................................ 52

List of Participants ........................................................................................................................................... 54



HoHs and other new tools for ecological synthesis

Jonathan Jeschke1,2

(1) Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) (2) Freie Universität Berlin

More and more ecological and other data are accumulating each year. In the current era of Big

Data, the famous quote by Naisbitt that “we are drowning in information but starved for

knowledge” from the early 1980s seems to be more applicable than ever before. We arguably lack

effective tools for research synthesis at a macro level, tools that help “connecting the dots”. I will

present new and potentially useful tools – Hierarchies of Hypotheses (HoHs), networks of major

hypotheses and research questions, among others – and give examples for applications of these

tools in invasion ecology and biogeography.



Coming of age? Reflections on a decade of macroecology specialist group meetings

Christian Hof1,*

(1) Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt

*[email protected]

In 2017, the GfÖ Specialist Group “Macroecology” celebrates its tenth anniversary. From Mainz

2007 to Vienna in 2017, the specialist group has seen a range of exciting meetings and workshops

as well as sessions at GfÖ conferences. A wide range of topics has been covered in talks and

posters; attendees have travelled to places near and far such as Basel, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, or

Uder. Results from workshop discussions have been prominently published, with the paper by

Beck et al. (Ecography 35: 673-683) becoming a standard read about the state of the art and the

frontiers of macroecology. After such glorious ten years it is time to look back. Which key

conclusions can be drawn after a decade of research being presented at our Macroecology

Specialist Group meetings? Which trends in topics and methodological approaches can be

identified? And what should macroecology aim for in the next ten years? Having attended all of

the Specialist Group meetings since 2007, I will try to provide some informed, but subjective

answers to these and other questions.



The Island Rule as a Hierarchy of Hypotheses

Sophie Lokatis1,2,3,*, Jonathan Jeschke1,2,3

(1) Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, 14195 Berlin, (2) IGB Berlin, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587

Berlin, (3) BBIB, Altensteinstr. 34, 14195 Berlin

*[email protected]

The island rule is a popular hypothesis to explain observations in body-size change on islands. The

following formulation of this hypothesis by Lomolino (1985, Am. Nat. 125:310-316) is widely used:

a “graded trend from gigantism in the smaller species of insular mammals to dwarfism in the

larger species”. Although this formulation refers exclusively to mammals, the island rule has also

been widely applied to birds, reptiles and invertebrates. Based on the Hierarchy of Hypotheses

approach, we performed a systematic literature review and subsequently analyzed the 143

publications that we identified as empirical tests of the island rule. We translated these studies’

outcomes, so that the results follow a common approach in addressing the hypothesis. We found

that the overall support for the island rule is significantly lower when using such a consistent

approach as compared to the original interpretations of the authors in the studies. In addition, a

network of the available literature was created based on co-authorship. Two core-groups could be

identified, which strongly differ in their support for the island rule, i.e. the first group

predominately publishes studies supporting the rule, whereas the other group mainly publishes

studies questioning the rule.



Mammalian diversity over twenty million years: dynamics of different trophic

levels and the effects of primary productivity

Susanne Fritz1,2,*, Jussi Eronen3,4, Shan Huang1, Jan Schnitzler5, Katrin Böhning-Gaese1,2, Catherine

Graham6,7

(1) Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberg Gesellschaft für

Naturforschung, Frankfurt, Germany, (2) Institute of Ecology, Evolution, and Diversity, Goethe University

Frankfurt, Germany, (3) Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Finland, (4) BIOS

Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland, (5) Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany, (6)

Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York, USA, (7) Swiss Federal Institute for

Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

*[email protected]

At global and regional scales, primary productivity strongly correlates with richness patterns of

extant animals across space, suggesting that resource availability and climatic conditions drive

patterns of diversity. However, the existence and consistency of such diversity–productivity

relationships through geological history is unclear. We provide a comprehensive quantitative test

of the diversity–productivity relationship through time for terrestrial large mammals across the

Neogene (23-1.8 Mya), combining >14,000 occurrences for 690 fossil genera and regional

estimates of primary productivity from fossil plant communities in North America and Europe.

Through the 20-million-year record, we find a significant positive diversity–productivity

relationship, providing evidence on broad spatial and temporal scales that this relationship is a

general pattern in the ecology and paleo-ecology of our planet. We also break down mammalian

diversity into different trophic levels to investigate how closely herbivore diversity is linked to

primary productivity, and whether carnivore diversity can be linked to diversity at lower trophic

levels. Finally, we contrast our results with present-day patterns, suggesting that a combination of

human impacts and Pleistocene climate variability has modified the 20-million-year ecological

relationships by strongly reducing primary productivity and driving many mammalian species into

decline or to extinction.



The dark side of Lepidoptera: A continental gradient in the colour lightness of

assemblages of geometrid moths

Lea Heidrich*,1, Roland Brandl1, Konrad Fiedler2, Axel Hausmann3, Martin Brändle1, Dirk Zeuss1

(1) Faculty of Biology, Department of Ecology, Division of Animal Ecology, Philipps-Universität

Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch-Strasse 8, 35043 Marburg, Germany, (2) Faculty of Life Sciences,

Department of Botany & Biodiversity Research, Division of Tropical Ecology and Animal Biodiversity,

University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Wien, Austria., (3) SNSB - Zoologische Staatssammlung

München, Münchhausenstr. 21, 81247 München, Germany

*[email protected]

The colouration of animals confers a variety of important ecological and physiological functions. Recent studies showed that thermoregulation shapes macroecological patterns of colour lightness in heliothermic insects. However, we expect that other functions than thermoregulation determine the colour lightness of nocturnal insects. We used digital image analysis to assess the wing colour lightness of 637 species of geometrid moths and compiled their distribution across 3,777 grid cells. We calculated average colour lightness per grid and tested for relationships to forest cover, dew point temperature and solar radiation as proxies for crypsis, pathogen resistance and protection from radiation, respectively. We found a distinct geographical gradient with predominantly dark-coloured species in northern regions and light-coloured species in southern regions (r²=0.63). Average colour lightness increased with increasing solar radiation and dew point temperature, but was not correlated with forest cover. We conclude that the colour lightness of insects is a climate-driven multifunctional trait. The clear geographical gradient in colour lightness of nocturnal moths coincides with the geographical pattern predicted by thermoregulatory functions of heliothermic insects. This unexpected result indicates linkages of adult colouration to physiological processes during earlier life stages and points to fundamental benefits of dark colouration in cold and moist environments.



Dissecting global turnover in vascular plants

Christian König1*, Patrick Weigelt1, Holger Kreft1

(1) Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography Group, University of Goettingen

*[email protected],de

We provide the first global assessment of vascular plant turnover across geographic

settings, taxa and functional groups. Utilizing a dataset of 604 vascular plant checklists, we

calculated pairwise floristic similarities (βsim) for subsets based on geographical setting

(mainland, islands, different island types), taxonomic group (angiosperms, gymnosperms,

pteridophytes), and functional group (trees, shrubs, herbs). For each subset, we analyzed

the decay in similarity and assessed the relative importance of geographic distance vs.

environmental conditions using generalized dissimilarity models.

Overall, turnover rates were lowest for pteridophytes and herbs, and highest for

gymnosperms and shrubs. Environmental variables generally tended to exert stronger

control over species turnover than geographical distance. Unexpectedly, turnover among

islands was lower than among mainland units and strongly driven by differences in

environmental conditions, whereas mainland turnover was about equally dependent on

geographic distance and environmental conditions. This contrast was consistent across

taxonomic and functional groups.

We argue that geographical settings are characterized by specific configurations of

ecological filters that have a strong impact on the magnitude and structure of turnover.

Moreover, taxonomic and functional groups are differentially successful in passing these

filters, resulting in group- and setting-specific turnover patterns. Exploring these

interdependences will help to improve our understanding of beta diversity.



There is the migratory connectivity in small migratory birds driven by

geography or environmental factors?

Guillermo Fandos1*, Catherine Graham2, Jan Engler3, José Luis Tellería1

(1) Departamento de Zoología y Antropología Física, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid E-

28040, Spain, (2) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, (3)

Department of Biology, Ghent University, Belgium

Historically, studies of migratory connectivity have focused on the degree to which

individuals are geographically arranged among seasons, but some studies suggest that the

selection of areas in winter is somehow determined by climate. However studies of

environmental migratory connectivity- how similar the environmental conditions

experienced by the population are across the year- are often lacking. In this paper, we use

ringing and recovery schemes of 13 partial-migrants in the Western Palearctic, to explore if

migratory connectivity in a geographical perspective is correlated with connectivity in an

environmental context. We show that a strong connectivity pattern exists in almost all the

species, individuals that breed close to each other also winter close to each other. However,

populations seem to don´t track environmental conditions between seasons. Altogether,

our results suggest that probably trying to maintain the same environmental conditions

along the year is not the cause of the strong migratory connectivity patterns, and the

breeding geographical origin is the most relevant variable in shaping the geographical

distribution of small passerines at this scale. In conclusion, understanding migratory

connectivity is critical for the implementation of conservation strategies of migratory

species and it should be further explored combining information from different sources.



The role of biomes in the diversification of Australian Acacia

Esther Dale1,2*, William Lee1,3, Steven Higgins2

(1) Landcare Research, (2) Department of Botany, University of Otago, (3) School of Biological

Sciences, University of Auckland

*[email protected]

Biome niche conservatism theorises that biomes represent formidable barriers to species colonisation and diversification processes. This implies that species distributions should be coherently structured by biomes. We wanted to test this using Acacia, a hyperdiverse genus with 1380 species globally. We were interested in the diversification of this lineage in relation to biomes, particularly whether diversification was happening within or across biomes and how specialisation strategy was structured across the lineage. We modelled distributions in of 526 Australian Acacia species using the Thornley Transport Resistance model (TTR) and identified the biome of each pixel of predicted presence on the Australian continent. We used two biome concepts: the WWF ecoregions and functional biomes. Australia contains seven of the WWF Ecoregions and 13 functional biomes. Using a recent Acacia phylogeny we examined the phylogenetic component of biome trends. Geographical area influenced species diversity, with larger biomes tending to support more species. Few species occupied one or all biomes, but many occupied an intermediate number. The same trends were observed for both biome concepts. This indicates most Acacia species have a broad biome preference rather than diversification occurring within or across biomes.



A RADseq approach to the Maculinea alcon paradox: extreme ecological

adaptation without genetic differentiation

Darina Koubínová1*, Vlad Dincă2, Leonardo Dapporto2,3, Raluca Vodă4, Tomasz Suchan1,

Roger Vila2, Nadir Alvarez1

(1) Department of Ecology and Evolution, Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University in Lausanne,

Biophore 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland, (2) Institut de Biologia Evolutiva (CSIC-Universitat Pompeu

Fabra), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37, 08003 Barcelona, Spain. (3) Department of Biology,

University of Florence, via Madonna del Piano 6 50019, Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy. (4)

Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi, Università degli Studi di Torino, Via

Accademia Albertina 13, 10123, Turin, Italy

*[email protected]

Is specialization based on host-specificity always supported by lineage sorting? We try to

answer this question in the case of three ecotypes of the lycaenid butterfly Maculinea alcon.

Larvae of each of these morphologically similar ecotypes feed on a specific host plant and

socially parasitize distinct ant species. They also occur in different types of habitats: hygric

and xeric at low altitude, and xeric areas at high altitude. Theoretically, we could expect,

that this multiple ecological constraint would be supported by a genetic differentiation of

each ecotype; however, no significant distinctive molecular traits have been revealed so far

using classical Sanger sequencing, microsatellites or allozyme markers.

In this study, we use a dataset of 1,393 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) loci

obtained by whole-genome RAD-sequencing of 26 specimens originating from various sites

across southern part of Europe. Contrary to previous studies, we investigated three

ecotypes at a large geographical scale, instead of only local populations of maximum two

ecotypes.

We discuss the obtained results in the context of conservation strategies that should apply

to population-level genetic polymorphisms when resulting phenotypes develop in

contrasting ecological habitats.



Shifting barriers and phenotypic diversification by hybridization

Kristina M. Sefc1*, Karin Mattersdorfer1, Angelika Ziegelbecker1, Nina Neuhüttler1, Oliver

Steiner2, Walter Goessler2, Stephan Koblmüller1

(1) Institute of Zoology, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 2, 8010 Graz, Austria, (2) Institute of

Chemistry - Analytical Chemistry, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 1, 8010 Graz, Austria

*[email protected]

The establishment of hybrid taxa relies on reproductive isolation from the parental forms,

typically achieved by ecological differentiation. Here, we present an alternative mechanism,

in which shifts in the strength and location of dispersal barriers facilitate diversification by

hybridization. Our case study concerns the highly diverse, stenotopic rock-dwelling cichlids

of the African Great Lakes, many of which display geographic color pattern variation. The

littoral habitat of these fish has repeatedly been restructured in the course of ancient lake

level fluctuations. Genetic data, experimental crosses and analyses of integumentary

carotenoids support the hybrid origin of a distinct yellow-colored variant of Tropheus moorii

from ancient admixture between two allopatric, red and bluish variants. Deficient

assortative mating preferences imply that reproductive isolation continues to be contingent

on geographic separation. Linking paleolimnological data with the establishment of the

hybrid variant, we sketch a selectively neutral diversification process governed solely by

rearrangements of dispersal barriers.



Testing global-scale succulent biome phylogenetic conservatism in legumes

Jens J. Ringelberg1,*, Anahita Aebli1, Erik J.M. Koenen1, Niklaus E. Zimmermann2, Colin E.

Hughes1

(1) Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zürich, Zollikerstr. 107, 8008

Zürich, Switzerland (2) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuerchstr. 111, 8903 Birmensdorf,

Switzerland

*[email protected]

The tendency of closely related species to occupy the same biome is termed ‘phylogenetic

biome conservatism’. While this topic has received much attention in recent years, few

studies have actually tested biome conservatism quantitatively by incorporating explicit

bioclimatic niche modelling based on species occurrence data. Here we test the hypothesis

of trans-continental scale phylogenetic biome conservatism of caesalpinoid legume clades

(family Leguminosae, subfamily Caesalpinioideae) across the so-called succulent biome, a

highly seasonal, fragmented, grass-poor, non-burning, and arid biome spanning the New

and Old World tropics. We selected three clades that occur in this biome, and assembled

occurrence records from herbarium specimen data. The realized climatic niche of each

species was described using a subset of bioclimatic variables, and niche occupancy was

compared between species and clades using ordination and distribution modelling

techniques. The results show many minor shifts in realized bioclimatic niche within this

biome, but also a significant degree of phylogenetic biome conservatism on a global scale.

As the clades studied here span large amphiatlantic geographical disjunctions, this suggests

that distribution patterns of caesalpinioid legumes have been shaped as much or even more

by ecological rather than geographic constraints.



A global inventory of floras and traits for macroecology and biogeography

Patrick Weigelt1,*, Christian König1, Holger Kreft1

(1) Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen

*[email protected]

Truly global macroecological studies often use terrestrial vertebrates as a study group

because of the availability of global species range maps and comprehensive species-level

trait information. For plants, large-scale distribution data are comparatively rare and

restricted to either certain taxonomic groups (e.g. World Checklist of Selected Plant

Families, Global Compositae Checklist) or geographic regions. Also global point-occurrence

information like found in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) is biased

geographically and taxonomically. An alternative source of curated information is hidden in

a huge number of published floras and regional plant checklists. We therefore started a

Global Inventory of Floras and Traits (GIFT) for macroecological and biogeographical

analyses. The GIFT database holds checklists for 2246 island and mainland regions. It

contains more than 270,000 taxonomically standardized species names and 2.3 million

native, alien and endemic species-by-sites occurrences. In addition, we take advantage of

the wealth of species trait information contained in regional floras as well as global trait

databases. Based on a hierarchical derivation scheme for 107 functional traits the database

contains trait information for more than 2 million trait-per-species combinations leading to,

for example, growth-form information for about 166,000 species. Here we present the

geographical and taxonomic coverage of the distribution and trait information available in

the GIFT database and showcase potential macroecological analyses.



Phylogenetic and functional diversity of Australian birds is shaped by

geographic and climatic history, not environmental diversity

Lenka Harmáčková1*, Vladimír Remeš1

(1) Department of Zoology and Lab of Ornithology, Palacky University, Olomouc, Czechia

*[email protected]

Mapping species distributions and biological diversity was a focus of many studies, yet our

understanding of observed patterns and sources of their variability is still far from

comprehensive. Here, we focus on identifying areas with exceptional biological diversity and

explaining their occurrence. We determined the relative importance of species richness,

evolutionary history, geographic history, and environmental filtering on shaping diversity

patterns. We used range maps of all breeding species of Australian birds to model species

richness, phylogeny to compute two phylogenetic diversity indices, and three sets of traits

(focused on habitat, diet, and foraging behavior) to compute all three aspects of functional

diversity (functional richness, evenness, and divergence). We standardized the indices for

species richness using null models. Then we estimated correlations between those indices,

species richness, and environmental variables using bivariate (spatial t-test) and multivariate

regression (SARerr) analyses. Biodiversity patterns in Australian birds were mainly shaped by

geographic and climatic history of the continent. However, the mechanisms apparently

differ between the regions. East coast seems to be affected mainly by geographic and

evolutionary history, while at the rest of the continent an effect of environmental filtering is

also apparent, mainly due to the effect of water availability and temperature.



Macroecological patterns of intraspecific variation

Jonas Kuppler1,*, Robert R. Junker1

(1) Department of Ecology & Evolution | University of Salzburg | Salzburg, Austria

*[email protected]

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in plants within natural communities can be large and

important for community processes and dynamics. Several contradictory hypotheses on ITV

as a function of large scale climatic and species richness gradients have been proposed. It

has been shown that the ratio between ITV and interspecific variation within a community

(i.e. relative extent of ITV) decreases with increasing species richness while climatic

variables were not found to be predictive for this ratio. However, how the absolute extent

of ITV in plant species (= coefficient of variation (CV)) is related to large scale gradients

remains unknown. Currently, we are compiling a dataset from databases and individual

studies to evaluate if the absolute extent of ITV (vegetative and floral traits) responds to

climate and species richness gradients. The outcomes of our study provide novel insights in

the macroecological patterns of ITV as well as in the differences and/or similarities of

different trait groups (e.g. vegetative and floral traits). Further, as high ITV increases the

ability of plant to withstand environmental change, knowledge about the global distribution

of ITV facilitates a detailed knowledge about the global pattern of plants’ vulnerability to

environmental change.



Novel insights into post-glacial vegetation change: functional and

phylogenetic diversity in pollen records

Triin Reitalu1,*, Pille Gerhold2, Anneli Poska1, Meelis Pärtel2, Vivika Väli3, Siim Veski1

(1) Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, EE-19086 Tallinn, Estonia;

(2) Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Lai 40, EE-51005 Tartu, Estonia; (3)

Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi

5-D, EE-51014 Tartu, Estonia;

* [email protected]

Sedimentary pollen provides a valuable source of information about past vegetation.

Reconstructions of palaeo vegetation mainly focus on pollen richness and seldom consider

other aspects of plant biodiversity. We used a dataset of 1062 pollen samples from 20 sites

in NE Europe covering the last 14 500 yrs to estimate richness, evenness, functional and

phylogenetic diversity measures for the pollen data and tested the methods with a

simulation study.

The Late Glacial (14 500–11 650 cal. yr BP) and the mid-Holocene (8000–4000 cal. yr BP)

periods showed contrasting values for most of the diversity components. Several diversity

estimates were strongly associated with climate suggesting that trait differences play an

important role in long-term community response to climate change. The cold climate during

the Late Glacial was characterized by high phylogenetic diversity, and relatively low

functional diversity. Increasing human impact in the late Holocene was associated with an

increase in pollen richness and decreases in functional diversity and in phylogenetic

diversity of herbs. Our results indicate that human impact during the last two millennia has

influenced functional and phylogenetic diversity negatively by suppressing plants with

certain traits (functional convergence) and giving advantage to plants from certain

phylogenetic lineages.



Assessing the invasion risk posed by exotic pet trade: Are we lulled into a

false sense of security?

Katharina J. Filz1,*

(1) Museum of Natural History Dortmund, Germany

[email protected]

Considerable scientific, politic and economic attention has been directed to biological

invasions. Multiple pathways serve to introduce species to new environments and the

release or escape of pets represents one of the most important sources for invasive

species. Risk assessments help to identify species that are likely to become invasive

and to set up preventive measures. Weighing the relative importance of ecological and

human factors driving the establishment success of abandoned pets, we developed a

new methodological guideline to help prioritising management activities for frequently

traded pet herps. Climate match scores between the different distribution ranges as

well as traits and niche axes shared by native and non-native species were assessed.

Moreover, we tested for discrepancies in niche breadth between native and non-

native ranges and estimated the ability of species to coexist with humans. Potentially

moderate to high establishment success in most species was linked to appropriate

climate match scores, broader niches with restrained human impact and high similarity

in reproductive niche space between native and non-native species. Thus, providing

baseline information on the invasion potential of pet herps risk assessments are

valuable for politics and conservation, but can we trust them, especially when

environments are changing?



Hierarchical climatic filtering: towards a mechanistic concept of plant

invasion on islands

Severin D.H. Irl1,*, Andreas H. Schweiger2, Manuel J. Steinbauer2, Claudine Ah-Peng3, José

Ramon Arévalo4, Carl Beierkuhnlein1, Alessandro Chiarucci5, Curtis C. Daehler6, José Maria

Fernández-Palacios4, Rüdiger Otto4, Olivier Flores3, Christoph Kueffer7, Petr Maděra8,

Dominique Strasberg9, Anke Jentsch10

(1) Biogeography, Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), University of

Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany, (2) Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of

Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark, (3) UMR PVBMT, Pôle de Protection des Végétaux,

Saint Pierre, France, (4) Departamento de Ecología, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, Spain, (5)

BIOCONNET, Biodiversity and Conservation Network, Department of Environmental Science ‘‘G.

Sarfatti’’, University of Siena, Siena, Italy, (6) Department of Botany, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu,

USA, (7) Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (8) Mendel University,

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Department of the Forest Botany, Dendrology and

Geobiocoenology, Brno, Czech Republic, (9) Université de La Réunion, UMR CIRAD/Université

Réunion, Peuplements Végétaux et Bioagresseurs en Milieu Tropical, Saint-Denis Messag, La

Réunion, France, (10) Disturbance Ecology, Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research

(BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany

*[email protected]

Biological invasions resulting from the erosion of biogeographical barriers are a major threat

of the Anthropocene, likely leading to a loss of global biodiversity, ecosystem services and

functioning. However, a mechanistic understanding of plant invasion, especially in relation

to how climatic conditions control these processes, is still missing. We develop and test a

theoretical framework called hierarchical climatic filtering that captures the principles of

changing hierarchies of abiotic factors in driving plant invasion. We expect a gateway filter

to drive alien establishment by selecting species with climatic requirements overlapping the

gateway region. Then a system imminent filter acts along climatic gradients structuring alien

niche widths within an island. Both filters select for alien generalists by favoring large niche

widths due to the increased likelihood of generalists to overcome the gateway filter. Once

established alien generalists are able to spread into other climatic conditions within the

island, while this is not the case for alien specialists adapted to the gateway conditions. We

test these assumptions by using simulations as well as thirteen elevational transects on

windward and leeward sides of six high elevation islands. Understanding the basic

mechanisms of plant invasions might help predict future invasions on islands, which are

particularly vulnerable to human-induced alterations.



How do climate warming and cultivation intensity interact regarding the

spread of potential future plant invaders in Europe?

Günther Klonner1,*, Johannes Wessely1, Oliver Bossdorf2, Wayne Dawson3,4, Franz Essl1, Andreas Gattringer1, Mark van Kleunen3, Dietmar Moser1, Wilfried Thuiller5, … and Stefan

Dullinger1

(1) Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria (2) Institute of Evolution & Ecology, University of Tübingen, Auf

der Morgenstelle 5, 72076 Tübingen, Germany (3) Department of Biology, Ecology, University of Konstanz, Universitätsstrasse 10, 78457 Konstanz, Germany (4) Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom (5) University of Grenoble Alpes, CNRS,

Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), 2233 Rue de la Piscine, F-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France

* [email protected]

Increasing global trade has caused an increase of biological invasions in Europe so far. For plants the pool of alien ornamental species has been one of the main sources from where invasions start. Recent studies have focused on trying to predict the next invaders out of that pool especially under the current aspect of climate warming. Here we combined species distribution models and a mechanistic plant propagation model to study a set of alien ornamentals in Europe and their possible propagation under three different climate change scenarios and six cultivation intensities. The plant propagation model uses climatic suitabilities and simulates plants’ life cycle for each cell based on demographic rates. Dispersal of seeds between cells is realized by using different algorithms for the transport of propagules. On average the results report a positive response both with climate warming and higher cultivation intensities. Latter have, however, a stronger effect on the species’ potential to establish and spread than climate change. Differences in species could be explained through their demographic rates, the suitability to more or less habitats as well as a differing climatic suitability. Based on the results we conclude that restrictions in trade could prevent or at least slow down the rate of alien ornamental species’ getting established in Europe.



The temporal development of the global spread of alien species

Hanno Seebens1,*, GloNAF Team & First Record Team

(1) Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt, Germany

*[email protected]

Thousands of species have been translocated out of their native range into new ranges due

to human activity. The introductions of these alien species change the boundaries known

from classical biogeography and became a defining feature of the Anthropocene. The recent

development of global databases of native and alien distributions of species allows the

analysis of the global spreading dynamics. But it is often neglected that the routes and rates

of introduction distinctly changed during the last centuries and that figures of total invasion

dynamics may be dominated by most recent exchanges, thereby neglecting more historic

dynamics, which can be essential to understand the observed distribution of alien species. I

will present first results of an analysis of the temporal changes in the global spreading

networks. For this purpose, native and alien ranges of species from various taxonomic

groups have been combined with the first records of the species in a region. This allows the

representation of spreading networks specific for certain time periods and shows that the

spreading dynamics have undergone substantial changes during the last centuries specific to

taxonomic groups.



The potential impact of invasive pests on carbon storage in Europe’s forests

Rupert Seidl1,*, Franz Essl2,3, Werner Rammer1, Günther Klonner2, Stefan Dullinger2

(1) University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, (2) University of Vienna, (3) Environment Agency Austria

* [email protected]

In the context of climate change mitigation carbon storage is an increasingly important

ecosystem service. In forests, the capacity to store carbon depends strongly on the

prevailing disturbance regime. Disturbances are expected to be strongly affected by global

change in the future, such as the human-induced spread of non-native pest species. Such

novel disturbance regimes have the potential to cause strong negative carbon cycle

feedbacks from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Here, we use a combination of species

distribution and carbon cycle modelling (i) to evaluate the potential consequences that

invasion by five different non-native forest pest species may have on the carbon storage in

Europe’s forests; and (ii) to assess how different scenarios of climate warming (RCP2.6 and

RCP8.5) may change pathogen invasion patterns and subsequently forest carbon storage

capacity. We find that invasive pest species put large amounts of carbon stored in forests at

risk, although variability among species and geographical regions is pronounced.

Furthermore, the potential negative effects of invaders on C storage are increasing under

climate change, either because the pests’ climatically suitable ranges increase, or because

these suitable ranges overlap the distribution of their potential host tree species more

strongly.



Regional and local environmental drivers of alien plant invasions in European

woodlands

Viktoria Wagner, Milan Chytrý, Martin Večeřa, Jonathan Lenoir, Jens-Christian Svenning,

Borja Jiménez-Alfaro, Jan Pergl, Petr Pyšek, and data contributors

Theory depicts biological invasions as hierarchical processes, in which an arriving alien

species has to pass several environmental filters that are spatially nested within each other

in order to establish, reproduce and spread in the new territory. Several filters have been

proposed as important candidates for accelerating alien plant invasions. For instance,

macroclimate and canopy cover in woodland habitats could mitigate invasions through

abiotic stress (e.g. cold stress and light limitation), while human activities could enhance

invasions throughout increased in disturbances, propagule pressure and nutrient

availability. However, the importance of individual environmental filters for plant invasion

within forest ecosystems has been rarely assessed at a continental scale and across different

habitat types. We used spatially-explicit vegetation survey data from the European

Vegetation Archive and additional regional datasets (n = 22,000 plots) to elucidate the role

of environmental variables underlying alien plant invasions across European woodlands.

Information on predictors was derived from accompanying plot-header data (tree cover,

altitude) and from public geographic sources (proximity to roads and rivers, macroclimate,

proportion of sealed area, population density, nutrient deposition). These variables

constitute proxies of abiotic stress and human activity, at the regional and local scales. We

used spatially informed models to analyze the presence-absence of alien species and the

levels of invasion at the plot-scale for woodlands in general and for different woodland

structural layers, respectively. Furthermore, we incorporated EUNIS habitat types and

biogeographic regions as co-variables to assess the importance of environmental factors

across different vegetation types and biogeographic regions. Our results will contribute to a

better understanding of the environmental filters controlling alien plant invasions within

forest ecosystems.



Hierarchical regression modelling as an improved framework to infer abiotic

change from plant community composition using Ellenberg indicator values

Tadhg Carroll1,*, Phillipa Gillingham1, Rick Stafford1, Anita Diaz1

(1) Bournemouth University

*[email protected]

Ellenberg indicator values (EIVs) are a widely used metric in plant ecology providing a semi-

quantitative description of species-specific ecological requirements. Typically, point

estimates of mean EIV scores from homogenous stands of vegetation are compared to infer

differences in environmental conditions underlying plant communities. However, the use of

point estimates does not take into account variability around site mean EIVs and gives equal

weighting to means calculated from sites with high and low species richness, thus

introducing potential bias to estimates and inferences. I will present a set of hierarchical

models which result in improved precision and accuracy of site mean EIV scores and as such,

provide more reliable inference on changing environmental conditions over spatial and

temporal gradients. Our results show that incorporating variability present at all levels of

the system – both within and between sites – can lead to strikingly different results to those

obtained through traditional methods. These findings have important implications,

particularly for studies comparing historical and contemporary plant assemblages where no

environmental data are available. During the talk I will also give a brief overview of how

these models can be fit in both Bayesian and frequentist analytical frameworks, and outline

some useful scenarios for applications.



The potential of n-dimensional hypervolumes in (macro-) ecology

Robert R. Junker1,*

(1) Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Salzburg, Austria

*[email protected]

Niche theory is one of the most fundamental concepts in ecology and has long been

conceptualized as n-dimensional hypervolumes (sensu Hutchinson 1957). Only recently,

satisfying mathematical and algorithmic treatments of hypervolumes have been realized.

The ability to quantify the size and the overlap of n-dimensional hypervolumes is an

important methodological and conceptual step in ecology, but may also open new frontiers

in various other disciplines. Unlike common ordination procedures used to reduce the

number of dimensions, n-dimensional hypervolumes fully consider each individual factor

(dimension). Thus, this concept has the potential to handle multivariate and complex data

without oversimplifying the patterns and camouflaging important explanatory variables.

I will introduce dynamic range boxes (dynRB, Junker et al. 2016 Methods in Ecology and

Evolution), a robust nonparametric approach to quantify size and overlap of n-dimensional

hypervolumes, and will demonstrate its applicability. Additionally, I will discuss the potential

of n-dimensional hypervolumes in (macro-) ecology and address open questions.



New high resolution climate data to track recent climate change in global

ecosystems

Dirk N. Karger1,2,*, Niklaus E. Zimmermann1, Walter Jetz3, Holger Kreft4, H. Peter Linder2,

Patrick Weigelt4, Rafael O. Wüest2, Jürgen Böhner5, Olaf Conrad5, Tobias Kawohl5, Lidong

Mo2, Carlos Guerra6, Michael Kessler2.

(1) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, (2) University of Zurich, Zurich,

Switzerland (3) Yale University, New Haven, CN, USA (4) University of Goettingen, Goettingen,

Germany (5) University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany (6) German Center for Integrative

Biodiversity Research, Leipzig, Germany.

*[email protected]

Climate change has picked up pace in the last decades, with many of the recent years being

warmer then the preceding ones. Tracking the environmental changes that ecosystems

worldwide have experienced has, however, been difficult due to the lack of climate data at a

high spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we present the application of a newly developed

high resolution climatology (CHELSA) spanning the years 1979-2013 for tracking the impact

of changes in the world’s ecosystems. Among others, we present data on how the global

potential treeline, mountain thermal belts, have already been shifting upwards; show how

to what degree mountain cloud forests, one of the most biodiverse ecosystems worldwide,

has been impacted by climate, how strongly and where; and how climate change on islands

differs from that on mainlands. As the climate data is now available on a monthly basis at a

resolution of 1 km2, starting 1979, we are now able to track recent climate change in

ecosystems worldwide, with an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. This will not

only prove valuable for climate change mitigation, but can also inform us about the

underlying ecological dynamics in today’s ecosystems.



Computing spatially corrected accuracy measures in species distribution

modelling

Gudrun Carl1, Ingolf Kühn1, *

(1) Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research – UFZ, Dept. Community Ecology, Halle, Germany

*[email protected]

Using an appropriate accuracy measure is essential for assessing prediction accuracy in

species distribution modelling. Although a variety of accuracy measures for the assessment

of prediction errors in presence/absence models is available, there is a lack of spatial

accuracy measures, i.e. measures that are sensitive to the spatial arrangement of the

predictions. We present a method to spatial performance measures for grid-based models.

These accuracy measures are generalized, spatially corrected versions of the classical ones,

thus enabling comparisons between them. Our method for evaluation consists of the

following steps: (1) incorporate additional autocorrelation until spatial autocorrelation in

predictions and actuals is balanced, (2) cross-classify predictions and adjusted actuals in a

4x4 contingency table, (3) use a refined weighting pattern for errors, and (4) calculate

weighted Kappa, sensitivity, specificity and subsequently ROC, AUC, TSS (true-skills-

statistics) to get spatially corrected indices. To illustrate the impact of our spatial method

we present an example of simulated data as well as an example of presence/absence data

of the plant species comparing spatial and classical (non-spatial) indices. The spatial indices

tend to result in higher values than classical ones. These differences are statistically

significant at medium and high autocorrelation levels. Calculations are available in the R

package Spind.



Birds communities structure through available energy

Claire Lorel1*, Isabelle Le Viol1, Maud Mouchet 1

(1) Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle CESCO UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, 43 rue Buffon,

75005 Paris, France

*[email protected]

Growing urbanization and agriculture intensification are major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. Energy availability is the basis of productivity and ecosystem functioning but it is reduced by intensification practices. However, few studies have examined the large scale response of the different components of biodiversity and functional diversity in particular to land use intensification. Using the French Breeding Birds Survey, coupled with a trait database, we investigated the variations in the functional structure of bird communities to several indicators of intensification as human appropriation of NPP (HANPP) and available energy (NPPeco), over agricultural and semi-natural landscapes. Specifically, we evaluated habitat specialization (CSI),average trophic position (CTrl), functional richness (FRic), evenness (FEve), divergence (FDiv) and dispersion (FDis) of these communities along a gradient of intensification. Our results show that the facets of diversity respond differently to human appropriation. FRic, FDiv and FEve tend to decrease with NPPeco. Conversely, FDis tend to increase with NPPeco. Habitat generalists with an intermediate trophic level dominate communities for intermediate levels of NPPeco, suggesting an ongoing biotic homogenization. Overall, our results suggest that the impact of human appropriation highly varies

across facets of biodiversity and ecological functions, highlighting the complex

interactions between habitat, NPP and biodiversity.



Diversity patterns of amphibians in the Amazonian floating meadows

Luis Fernando Marin da Fonte1,*, Marcelo Menin2, Marcelo Gordo2, and Stefan Lötters1

(1) Biogeography Department, Trier University, 54286 Trier, Germany, (2) Departamento de Biologia,

Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Av. General Rodrigo Otávio

Jordão Ramos 6200, 69077-000, Manaus, AM, Brazil

*[email protected]

The Amazon basin is one of the mega-diversity regions of the earth. It covers an area of

about 7,000,000 km2 and encompasses different kinds of environments, such as rainforests,

savannas and floodplains (várzea). One habitat of the varzean environment are the floating

meadows, plant mats found on the surface of water bodies, like rivers and lakes. They can

be composed of different kinds of plants and can grow very fast, reaching enormous

dimensions. Moreover, in the high water season, they can be detached from shores and

turn into floating islands, serving as rafts and important means of long-distance dispersal for

the organisms living in them. Anuran amphibians are among the most diverse animal taxa in

Amazonia and are a key group when assessing diversity patterns in this region. Several frog

species are known to occupy floating meadows, but few studies have focused on anuran

species compositions present in the meadows. In this study, we aim to investigate

amphibian species diversity patterns across the Amazon basin, with a focus on species that

inhabit floating meadows. Therefore, we used our own data collected in the field and

compiled information from literature, encompassing 21 localities. In total, we found that at

least 50 anuran species occur on floating meadows, of which 80% are members of the family

Hylidae (tree frogs). None of these taxa exclusively inhabits floating meadows, but some are

frequently associated with this kind of habitat (e.g. Lysapsus bolivianus), while others are

occasional occupants only (e.g. Rhinella marina). Some species were found in more than half

of the sampling sites and were usually locally abundant (e.g. Dendropsophus walfordi,

Hypsiboas raniceps, L. bolivianus). As a contrast to this, about 30% of all taxa was recorded

in just one site, usually in low abundances. Considering just the Amazon River, from

Yurimaguas in Peru to Mazagão in Brazil (i.e. 16 localities, circa 60% of the river length), beta

diversity analyses show that there are some recognizable species clusters at the regional

scale, with some taxa present in the upper river stretch but absent in the lower, and vice-

versa. Few species, like H. punctatus and Sphaenorhynchus lacteus, were found almost over

the whole river stretch, suggesting that the floating islands might play a role in the dispersal

of these organisms.



The future distribution and diversity of river fish: the complex interplay of

climate and land use changes and species dispersal

Johannes Radinger1*, Nicolas Dendoncker2, Franz Essl3, Franz Hölker1, Pavel Horký4, Ondřej

Slavík4, Christian Wolter1

(1)Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany, (2)Département de

Géographie, Université de Namur, Belgium, (3)Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and

Landscape Ecology, University of Vienna, Austria, (4)Department of Zoology and Fisheries, Czech

University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Republic

*[email protected]

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use change.

Surprisingly, little is known (i) how these two dominant global drivers interact and whether

such interactions amplify or buffer the overall effect on fish assemblages and (ii) if fish

species will be able to keep pace with predicted habitat shifts.

For the European River Elbe catchment we modeled fish species distributions using boosted

regression trees to uncover the role of climate and land use change and their synergistic,

additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses and gains. Moreover, using a

GIS-based fish dispersal model we quantified the dispersal abilities of fishes to track

predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers.

On average species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7- 2.5 species by 2050 across the

entire catchment. Antagonistic interaction was the dominating effect on species losses and

gains found in up to 75% of the catchment. Predicted habitat shifts were highly variable

among species. Suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller-bodied fishes and to

contract for larger-bodied fishes. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are

likely to shift faster than species might disperse, with smaller-bodied fish being most

vulnerable.



Similarities and differences in forest disturbance dynamics across the

European temperate forest biome

Cornelius Senf1,2,*, Rupert Seidl2, Patrick Hostert1,3

(1) Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin,

Germany, (2) Institute for Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU)

Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria, (3) Integrative Research Institute on

Transformation of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter

den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany

*[email protected]

Forest disturbances have increased substantially across the European temperate forest over

the past decades, driven by changes in forest structure and composition as well as global

climate change. However, field observations suggest that there are differences in the spatial

and temporal patterns of forest disturbances between sites within the same forest type, yet

those differences are poorly understood. To better understand these differences, we

utilized Landsat time series and landscape pattern analysis to map and characterize the

spatial and temporal pattern of forest disturbances across five protected areas in the

temperature forests of Central Europe, where disturbances were allowed to progress

without human intervention. Preliminary results suggest that patch size and complexity was

highly variable across sites, with larger and more complex disturbance patches found in sites

with gentler topography. Temporal development, however, was more similar across sites,

suggesting that regional to continental scale drivers such as climate synchronized forest

disturbances across the temperate forest biome. Our study is among the first to

systematically compare spatial and temporal forest disturbance patterns across the

temperate forest biome of Europe and thus will yield novel insights into what causes the

high within-biome variability in forest disturbance regimes.



Alpine plants at the edge - dynamics of elevational range limit shifts and their

implications

Sabine Rumpf1,*, Karl Hülber1,2, Wolfgang Willner1,2, Niklaus Zimmermann3,4, Stefan

Dullinger1

(1) Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Austria, (2) Vienna

Institute for Nature Conservation & Analyses, Vienna, Austria, (3) Swiss Federal Research Institute

WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, (4) Dept. of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of

Technology ETH, Zürich, Switzerland

*[email protected]

Recent studies report worldwide rapid range shifts due to climate change. However, little is

known about the balance of dynamics at elevational rear and leading edges. Due to

methodological constraints, long-term, multi-species studies covering whole elevational

range shifts. We used a new approach to re-locate historical relevés based on an

intersection of the described locality and the combination of its abiotic features and re-

sampled 1576 relevés in the European Alps with time intervals of up to 104 years, covering

the whole elevational range of 200 Alpine plant species. Our results show that rear and

leading edges as well as optima are shifting uphill. Contrary to common expectations,

however, rear edges shifted almost twice as fast as leading edges. Furthermore,

concurrence pressure, land use changes and the pace of population dynamics fortify this

trend and caused a clear elevational signature: the further downhill a range limit was

situated historically, the greater was its shift. As a consequence, habitats of higher

elevational species are compressed by succeeding species leading to already decreasing

abundances and potential future extinctions.



Areas of endemism in the Iranian plateau identified based on the

hyperdiverse plant family Asteraceae

Noroozi J., Talebi A., Rumpf Sabine, Doostmohamadi, M., & Schneeweiss G. M.

Areas of endemism are fundamental entities of analysis in evolutionary biogeography and

many basic questions of historical biogeography concern areas of endemism and their

interrelationships. The Iranian plateau is one of the most diverse regions of Southwest Asia

with respect to both organismal as well as landscape diversity, but little is known about

factors responsible for this high diversity. Here we investigate and describe patterns of

endemic richness across this region as well as identify areas of endemism and their

ecological and/or historical correlates. To this end, we have chosen the hyperdiverse plant

family Asteraceae, which includes 634 endemic and subendemic taxa from 5984 localities.

Applying Endemicity Analysis, we identified five areas of endemism. These are limited to the

major mountain ranges of the region. The areas of endemism are positively correlated with

topographic heterogeneity and elevational range, suggesting that geographic isolation and

high habitat diversity, due to high heterogeneity and extensive altitudinal gradients, played

an important role in the evolution of Iranian endemics.



Microbial communities in Maculinea alcon caterpillars change following

trophic shift

Mark Szenteczki1,*, Camille Pitteloud1, Roger Vila2, and Nadir Alvarez1

(1) Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, (2) Institut de Biologia Evolutiva (CSIC-Univ. Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona, Spain

*[email protected]

Insects vary widely in their use of microorganisms for nutrition and physiology. In most

cases, their microbiomes are relatively stable during diet modifications. However,

Maculinea alcon caterpillars undergo a dramatic change in diet, abruptly shifting from

phytophagy to ant tending (feeding via trophallaxis) during their parasitic relationship with

Myrmica ants. Is this shift in diet accompanied by a change in bacterial communities in

caterpillars? To address this question, we used high-throughput 16s rRNA sequencing to

track changes in bacterial community composition over the course of caterpillar

development. We surveyed geographic variation (and possible local differentiation) of

microbiota in caterpillars, using samples collected in the Alps (Switzerland & Italy) and

Pyrenees (Spain) mountain ranges. To better understand the origins of bacteria in M. alcon,

we also sequenced the bacterial communities present in caterpillars’ surrounding

environments (flower buds, and soil inside ant nest chambers), as well as in their ant hosts.

Here, we present evidence of a major shift in microbiome composition in M. alcon

caterpillars, that coincides with their trophic shift. We also draw parallels between

caterpillar and ant bacterial communities, suggesting a transfer of bacteria from their ant

hosts.



Species richness and species composition of mycorrhiza and wood-inhabiting

fungi on trees and shrubs in Germany

Martin Brändle1,*, Andreas Gminder2, Claus Bässler3

(1) Animal-Ecology - Department of Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Philipps-Universität Marburg,

Germany (2) German Mycological Society, Jena, Germany (3) Bavarian Forest National Park,

Mycology and Climatology Section Research, Grafenau-Germany

*[email protected]

Fungi interact with plants in various relationships acting as mutualists, parasites and

decomposers. Species richness and composition of associated fungi, however, varies

considerably among plants and we still do not fully understand the causes of this variation.

Due to their size and complex architecture in particular trees and shrubs provide habitats

for a large number of fungi. In our study we analyze the variation of species richness and

composition of mycorrhiza and wood-inhabiting fungi associated with different tree and

shrub genera in Germany. Preliminary results suggest that in both mycorrhiza and wood-

inhabiting fungi species richness increases with the size of the hostplant. This relationship

remained after standardization of host records to a common sample size and accounting for

hostplant phylogeny. While pairwise species turnover of mycorrhiza and wood-inhabiting

fungi assemblages were correlated, only the pairwise species turnover of the wood-

inhabiting fungi assemblages weakly increased with increasing evolutionary distance

between hostplants.

In further analyses we will consider relevant morphological and physiological characteristics

of hostplants as potential predictors of fungal diversity. Furthermore we will analyze

whether and how distribution and ecological niche settings of hostplants affect the richness

and composition of associated fungi assemblages.



Understanding the drivers of cross-taxon diversity

Stefan Pinkert1*, Klaas-Douwe B. Dijkstra2, Dirk Zeuss1, Viola Clausnitzer3, Katherine Bannar-Martin4, Roland Brandl1

(1) Faculty of Biology, Department of Ecology – Animal Ecology, Philipps-Universität, Marburg, Germany, (2) Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands, (3) Senckenberg

Museum Görlitz, Department of Pterygota, Görlitz, Germany, (4) iDiv, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Leipzig, Germany

*[email protected]

The identification of areas with outstanding intra- and cross-taxon diversity is a key element

of strategic conservation planning. Because the availability of adequate distribution data is

very limited, current conservation networks are, however, only based on a few well-known

taxa that serve as surrogates for biodiversity. Here we investigated the degree of cross-

taxon congruence in the overall distribution patterns and hotspots of species richness and

endemism for African mammals, birds, amphibians, freshwater fishes and odonates. We

also assessed the relative importance of biogeographic history and environmental factors

for cross-taxon congruence, by controlling for 26 environmental variables and spatial

autocorrelation. We found that overall diversity patterns were strongly positive correlated

between all taxa, except fishes. Mammals and birds also had high overlap of diversity

hotspots, whereas hotspots of fishes, odonates and amphibians were not congruent. After

controlling for environmental factors, cross-taxon congruence significantly decreased,

especially for odonates and fishes which suggests that the determinants of cross-taxon

congruence differ considerably between these groups. This mismatch between hotspots of

terrestrial vertebrate diversity – those areas that currently have the highest relevance for

conservation planning – and freshwater diversity is even higher, which stresses the need to

adopt taxon-specific conservation priorities.



The relative role of vegetation-herbivores interactions, land-use, fire and

climate in explaining vegetation dynamics across Europe through the

Holocene

Isabelle Boulangeat1,*, Jens-Christian Svenning1

(1) Aarhus University, Denmark

*[email protected]

Ecosystems have responded to past environmental changes, but sometimes at insufficient

rates to maintain equilibrium with the environment. Notably, there is accumulating

evidence that historical legacies play an important role in shaping current biodiversity and

ecosystem patterns. This calls for caution regarding the frequent modeling assumption that

species distributions are at equilibrium with their environment. It also means that

understanding long-term ecosystem dynamics is crucial to improve our ability to predict

future ecosystem response to environmental changes. Paleoecology offers a unique

possibility to explore the long-term dynamics of ecosystems. Our study for the first time in

Europe combines pollen data, charcoal data, mammal fossils, climate reconstructions and

estimation of land-use in a coherent statistical modeling framework allowing the joint

assessment of the importance of three external drivers, climate, fire and humans as drivers

of changes in vegetation and mammal distributions, also estimating the interaction between

the latter. By focussing on the changes in spatial distributions, our study does not rely on

any assumption regarding the equilibrium of species distributions with the environment.

Our results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, here between large herbivores

and vegetation, to understand long-term changes in broad-scale vegetation distribution. We

further show that climate, fire, land-use and herbivores affect different aspects of

vegetation dynamics.



The plan, the budget, the climate, the people – an evaluation of limiting

effects of species persistence in the near future within conservation areas

Diogo Alagador1,*, Jorge Orestes Cerdeira2,3

(1) Research Center for Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, CIBIO-InBIO, Universidade de Évora,

Évora, Portugal, (2) Departament of Mathmatics and Center for Mathmatics and Applications,

Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal, (3) Forest

Research Center, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.

*[email protected]

Conservation is a crisis discipline that acts under pressing scenarios for biodiversity. Budget

limitations, conflicts for land usage with socio-economic activities, rapid environmental

dynamics and an emergence to protect multiple species characterize the typical context

wherein many conservation plans operate. In this study we evaluate the magnitudes of the

effects of such factors over species persistence in conservation areas. We use a climate-

concerned spatial conservation framework to optimize conservation area selection for the

near future (up to 2080) for ten conservation-concerned mammal species in Iberian

Peninsula. The results evidence that species persistence scores are highly dependent on the

available budget and that multiple-species planning designs prevailed over climate change

as the most limiting factor for the persistence of eight species in conservation areas. For

three of the species, the limiting-effects of climate and planning design add up such that

under this coupled effect persistence losses surpasses the losses from planning design only.

Planners and decision makers should anticipate the impacts of both, climate change and

financial shortage within their plans, such that species persistence targets are carefully

tuned in order to approximate conservation efforts to conservation goals



Is species diversity density-dependent, density-independent, or both?

Matthew J Larcombe1,2,*, Gregory J Jordan1,2, David Bryant3, Steven Higgins1

(1) Department of Botany, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, (2) School of Biological

Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania (3) Department of Maths and Statistics,

University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

*[email protected]

The debate about what drives large diversity gradients has recently been polarised by two

hypotheses. One suggests that species accumulation is density-dependent due to

competition for limited resources, the other that increasing species diversity and

competition essentially have no effect, meaning that diversity is density-independent.

Reconciling this dichotomy is essential for understanding limits to biodiversity and

predicting changes in the distribution of life. The niche is of central importance to both

hypotheses. The density-dependent model predicts that diversification should slow as niche

and geographic overlap increases within clades (branches on a phylogenetic tree), whereas

the density-independent model predicts that the niche space of clades would increase, or

be partitioned more finely over time. Using the conifers, we test these predictions by

combining process based species distribution models with phylogenetic analysis to link

niche geometry with species richness patters. We then use regression analysis to partition

the relative effects. Rather than clear support for one hypotheses over the other, we found

that species richness is significantly influenced by both density-dependent and -independent

processes, although density-dependent effects may be marginally stronger. Our results

highlight the utility of considering both ecological (density-dependent) and evolutionary

(density-independent) controls when attempting to unravel diversity patterns.



Do joint species distribution models reliably detect interspecific interaction

mechanisms at different scales?

Damaris Zurell1,*

(1) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

*[email protected]

Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) simultaneously model the species-environment

relationships of multiple species and the residual correlation between these species, which

could be due to competition and facilitation. Here, I ask how reliably JSDMs detect different

interspecific interactions ranging from negative to positive, how JSDMs cope with

asymmetric interactions such as predator-prey relationships, and how scale-dependent

JSDMs are. Using a recently published point-process model, I simulated equilibrium co-

occurrence patterns of species pairs for all possible types of interactions and for varying

prevalence levels in a homogeneous environment. Then, I fitted JSDMs with an intercept

only model for the environmental response and an unstructured covariance matrix. JSDMs

reliably detected symmetric interactions such as competition and mutualism. However, as

asymmetric interactions may result in co-occurrence patterns matching those of

competitive and mutualistic interactions, JSDMs predicted both negative and positive

residual correlations for varying levels of asymmetry, but which depended on the

prevalence of the interacting species. Also the degree of residual correlation estimated by

JSDMs varied with prevalence and could thus not be readily interpreted as interaction

strength. At increasingly coarser resolution, both the signal of negative and positive

interactions became indiscernible by JSDMs, but – reassuringly – the signals got very rarely

confounded.



Long-term changes in species richness on mountain summits across Europe

Manuel J. Steinbauer1,*, Sonja Wipf2, SummitDiv team3

(1) Section Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000

Aarhus C, Denmark, (2) WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland , (3)

colaborative work is in progress with a large number of further scientists contributing significantly.

*[email protected]

Upward migration of species in mountains is an expected direct ecological responses to

climate warming. We investigate resulting changes in plant species richness based on

repeated vegetation surveys of over 250 mountain summits including historical data that

reach back up to 130 years. The repeated vegetation surveys across nine European

mountain regions (40°-80° latitude) show acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species

richness. This acceleration is a direct and immediate response to the acceleration in the rate

of temperature change observed on all studied mountain regions. Other global change

determinants, such as changes in precipitation and nitrogen deposition cannot explain the

species richness increase.



The relationship between extinction and climate change in space and time

Shan Huang1,*, Stewart Edie2, Kaustuv Roy3, James W. Valentine4, David Jablonski2

(1) Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany, (2)

Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, USA, (3) Section of Ecology,

Behavior and Evolution, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA, (4) Department of

Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, USA

*[email protected]

How climatic variation affected past extinctions is a crucial question for understanding the

role of climate in shaping biodiversity patterns, but has rarely been assessed quantitatively.

Here, we use marine bivalves as a model system to identify the key mechanism(s) linking

global and regional extinctions to climate variation in space and time. We analyzed the

temporal variation in global ocean temperature and bivalve genus extinction throughout the

Cenozoic. We found that bivalve extinction rate was strongly influenced by the rate of

climate change, while the direction of climate change (warming versus cooling) and the

climatic condition in itself (mean temperature) were less relevant. When comparing

extinction rates across space, we further found that regions that experienced greater net

changes in temperature since the Pliocene suffered great (regional) extinctions. However, a

higher extinction rate did not necessarily lead to a higher diversity drop, if the spatial

configuration of the climatic conditions, e.g. a shallow temperature gradient along a coast,

allowed a fast recovery, via evolution and geographic range expansion. Our findings

collectively highlight the importance of considering climate (and biodiversity) as dynamical

in space and time, as assessments based on static pictures of the climatic conditions cannot

capture the full impact.



Topographic-driven isolation – a global driver of endemism?

David Kienle1,*, Manuel J. Steinbauer2, Carl Beierkuhnlein1,3

(1) Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, (2) Section for Ecoinformatics and

Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, (3) Bayreuth Center of Ecology and

Environmental Research, University of Bayreuth

*[email protected]

There is a large amount of publications about global patterns of biodiversity and speciation,

however, aspects of endemism are still fragmentary. Endemism is often the result of local

allopatric speciation and shows a heterogeneous pattern on global scale. Climate-change

velocity during glacial-interglacial cycles has been identified as one important driver of

endemism: areas which experienced a high climate-change velocity contain a low

percentage of endemism because of incomplete niche realization and higher extinction

threats. Although climate-change velocity seems to influence endemism, it cannot stimulate

it itself. In addition, environmental changes associated with topographic heterogeneity (e.g.

mountains) seem to increase allopatric speciation (topography-driven isolation). In contrast

to former studies which showed this only for islands or selected mountainous areas, we

present a globally usable approach to define isolation based on nearest distances to areas of

similar elevations. “Endemism richness” (or “range size rarity”) is a concept proposed

recently to incorporate endemism and species richness of a defined area. We apply it by

inverse range sizes of animal species based on their occurrence in grid cells. We test both,

the impact of topography-driven isolation and climate-change velocity on available global

faunal distribution data to prove their impact on global endemism richness patterns.



Do alpine plant communities respond differently to climate change impacts?

- The Alps versus Mediterranean mountains

Lamprecht, A1,*, Pauli, H1, Steinbauer, K. 1, Bardy-Durchhalter, M. 1, & Winkler, M. 1

1GLORIA, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna and Austrian Academy of

Sciences, Silbergasse 30/3, 1190 Vienna

*[email protected]

Cold-adapted high mountain ecosystems are expected to respond sensitively to climate

warming, especially where temperature increase is combined with a decrease in

precipitation. Velocity and magnitude of biodiversity losses can only be documented by

long-term monitoring. The GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine

Environments, www.gloria.ac.at) network provides suitable datasets of repeated surveys of

alpine vegetation, recorded along a standardized protocol on mountain summits. GLORIA

data from 2001 and 2008 have shown that changes in biodiversity patterns were related to

rising temperatures, but climate change impacts on the local occurrence of alpine plants

differed significantly between the European temperate and the Mediterranean biome, with

predominantly increases in species numbers in the former and declines in the latter biome.

The current study compares data from three GLORIA regions each in the Alps and the

Mediterranean mountains from 2001, 2008 and 2015. The study aims to assess whether the

contrasting climate-driven changes in the Alps versus the Mediterranean mountains have

continued or even accelerated during the recent years. We discuss the impact of climatic

drivers such as changes in the thermal regimes and precipitation patterns and if

anthropogenic land-use practices may have contributed to alterations in the species

composition.



Environmental predictability – A neglected dimension of climate change

Andreas H. Schweiger1,*, Severin D. H. Irl2, Jens-Christian Svenning1, Carl Beierkuhnlein2

(1) Section Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus,

Denmark, (2) Department of Biogeography, Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research

(BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany

*[email protected]

The global effects of climate change on ecosystem structure and functioning has been

shown in numerous studies. The ecological consequences of gradual shifts in temperature

and precipitation are well recognized and extensively studied for all biomes of the world. In

contrast, changes in environmental predictability and its ecological consequences have been

completely neglected so far. However, the predictability (stochasticity) of environmental

conditions is of major evolutionary and ecological importance as several empirical and

theoretical studies show. Thus, studying the temporal changes in environmental

predictability seems to be of major importance in basic as well as applied ecological and

biogeographic research. Here we provide a first global map of the predictability, variability

and periodicity of air temperature and precipitation based on climatic data with high spatial

and temporal resolution (monthly values of temperature and precipitation with 0.5 degree

spatial resolution). We furthermore provide spatial information about the temporal changes

of all three measures over the last century and demarcate differences in environmental

predictability, variability and periodicity and their temporal changes for all major biomes of

the world. By providing this kind of information with a global extent we hope to stimulate

research on a very important but understudied topic.



End of the line for paleo-relicts?

Steven I. Higgins1*, Matthew J Larcombe1, Gregory J Jordan1,2, David Bryant3, Antonio

Trabucco4

(1) Department of Botany, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, (2) School of Biological

Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, (3) Department of Maths and Statistics,

University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, (4) Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem

Services (IAFES). Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, via De Nicola 9, 07100,

Sassari, Italy

*[email protected]

Paleo-endemics have, by definition, survived previous climatic changes. They could therefore

be considered extinction-resilient. However, they are also, by definition, range restricted,

which suggests that they are threatened by climatic change that further restricts their

potential ranges. We used a physiologically based species distribution model to project the

potential ranges of 72% of the worlds’ extant conifers under ambient, mid-holocene and

2070 climates (the latter as defined by two representative concentration pathways, RCP 45

and RCP 85). We examined patterns of potential species richness, phylogenetic endemism

and functional diversity under these scenarios. We found that the distribution of conifer

paleo-endemics has a clear geographical profile and contrasted with the distribution of

functional diversity. Moreover, these zones of high paleo-endemism were relatively resilient

to climatic change. While this latter finding appears, from a conservation perspective,

promising, we found that individual species with high levels of paleo-endemism appear more

threatened by future climatic changes than other species.



Index

Aebli, Anahita, 18 Alagador, Diogo, 43 Alvarez, Nadir, 16, 39 Arévalo, José Ramon, 24 Bannar-Martin, Katherine, 41 Bardy-Durchhalter, M., 49 Bässler, Claus, 40 Beierkuhnlein, Carl, 24, 48, 50 Böhner, Jürgen, 31 Böhning-Gaese, Katrin, 11 Bossdorf, Oliver, 25 Boulangeat, Isabelle, 42 Brandl, Roland, 12, 41 Brändle, Martin, 12, 40 Bryant, David, 44, 51 Carl, Gudrun, 32 Carroll, Tadhg, 29 Cerdeira, Jorge Orestes, 43 Chiarucci, Alessandro, 24 Chytrý, Milan, 28 Ah-Peng, 24 Clausnitzer, Viola, 41 Conrad, Olaf, 31 da Fonte, Luis Fernando Marin, 34 Daehler, Curtis C., 24 Dale, Esther, 15 Dapporto, Leonardo, 16 Dawson, Wayne, 25 Dendoncker, Nicolas, 35 Diaz, Anita, 29 Dijkstra, Klaas-Douwe B., 41 Dincă, Vlad, 16 Doostmohamadi, M., 38 Dullinger, Stefan, 25, 27, 37 Edie, Stewart, 47 Engler, Jan, 14 Eronen, Jussi, 11 Essl, Franz, 25, 27, 35 Fandos, Guillermo, 14 Fernández-Palacios, José Maria, 24 Fiedler, Konrad, 12 Filz, Katharina J., 23 Flores, Olivier, 24 Fritz, Susanne, 11 Gattringer, Andreas, 25 Gerhold, Pille, 22

Gillingham, Phillipa, 29 Gminder, Andreas, 40 Goessler, Walter, 17 Gordo, Marcelo, 34 Graham, Catherine, 11, 14 Harmáčková, Lenka, 20 Hausmann, Axel, 12 Heidrich, Lea, 12 Higgins, Steven, 15, 44, 51 Hof, Christian, 9 Hölker, Franz, 35 Horký, Pavel, 35 Hostert, Patrick, 36 Huang, Shan, 11, 47 Hughes, Colin E., 18 Hülber, Karl, 37 Irl, Severin D. H., 24, 50 Jablonski, David, 47 Jentsch, Anke, 24 Jeschke, Jonathan, 8, 10 Jetz, Walter, 31 Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja, 28 Jordan, Gregory J, 44, 51 Junker, Robert R., 21, 30 Karger, Dirk N., 31 Kawohl, Tobias, 31 Kessler, Michael, 31 Kienle, David, 48 Klonner, Günther, 25, 27 Koblmüller, Stephan, 17 Koenen, Erik J.M., 18 König, Christian, 13, 19 Koubínová, Darina, 16 Kreft, Holger, 13, 19, 31 Kueffer, Christoph, 24 Kühn, Ingolf, 32 Kuppler, Jonas, 21 Lamprecht, A, 49 Larcombe, Matthew J, 44, 51 Le Viol, Isabelle, 33 Lee, William, 15 Lenoir, Jonathan, 28 Linder, H. Peter, 31 Lokatis, Sophie, 10 Lorel, Claire, 33 Lötters, Stefan, 34



Maděra, Petr, 24 Mattersdorfer, Karin, 17 Menin, Marcelo, 34 Mo, Lidong, 31 Moser, Dietmar, 25 Mouchet, Maud, 33 Neuhüttler, Nina, 17 Noroozi, Jalil, 38 Otto, Rüdiger, 24 Pärtel, Meelis, 22 Pauli, H, 49 Pergl, Jan, 28 Pinkert, Stefan, 41 Pitteloud, Camille, 39 Poska, Anneli, 22 Pyšek, Petr, 28 Radinger, Johannes, 35 Rammer, Werner, 27 Reitalu, Triin, 22 Remeš, Vladimír, 20 Ringelberg, Jens J., 18 Roy, Kaustuv, 47 Rumpf, Sabine, 37, 38 Schneeweiss, G. M., 38 Schnitzler, Jan, 11 Schweiger, Andreas H., 24, 50 Seebens, Hanno, 26 Sefc, Kristina M., 17 Seidl, Rupert, 27, 36 Senf, Cornelius, 36 Slavík, Ondřej, 35

Stafford, Rick, 29 Steinbauer, K., 49 Steinbauer, Manuel J., 24, 46, 48 Steiner, Oliver, 17 Strasberg, Dominique, 24 Svenning, Jens-Christian, 28, 42, 50 Szenteczki, Mark, 39 Talebi, A., 38 Tellería, José Luis, 14 Thuiller, Wilfried, 25 Tomasz Suchan, 16 Trabucco, Antonio, 51 Valentine, James W., 47 Väli, Vivika, 22 van Kleunen, Mark, 25 Veski, Siim, 22 Vila, Roger, 16, 39 Vodă, Raluca, 16 Wagner, Viktoria, 28 Weigelt, Patrick, 13, 19, 31 Wessely, Johannes, 25 Willner, Wolfgang, 37 Winkler, M., 49 Wipf, Sonja, 46 Wolter, Christian, 35 Wüest, Rafael O., 31 Zeuss, Dirk, 12, 41 Ziegelbecker, Angelika, 17 Zimmermann, Niklaus E., 18, 31, 37 Zurell, Damaris, 45



List of Participants

Last Name First Name Institution Contact Barajas Paola University of Göttingen [email protected]

Boulangeat Isabelle Aarhus University [email protected]

Brändle Martin Philipps-Universität Marburg, FB Biologie, Tierökologie [email protected]

Brändle Martin Philipps-Universität Marburg, FB Biologie, Tierökologie [email protected]

Carroll Tadhg Bournemouth University [email protected]

Chytry Milan Masaryk University [email protected]

Dale Esther Botany Department, University of Otago & Landcare Research [email protected]

Datta Arunava Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research [email protected]

de La Harpe Marylaure Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Dengler Jürgen Plant Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth [email protected]

Divisek Jan Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University [email protected]

Dullinger Stefan Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Dullinger Iwona Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Ehmig Merten Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany [email protected]

Reb Karlheinz Institute of Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt

Essl Franz Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Fandos Guillermo Complutense University of Madrid [email protected]

Fiedler Konrad Tropical Ecology and Animal Biodiversity, University of Vienna

Filz Katharina Museum of Natural History Dortmund [email protected]

Flantua Suzette University of Amsterdam [email protected]

Fritz Susanne Senckenberg Biodiversity & Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) [email protected]

Gattringer Johannes Justus Liebig University Giessen [email protected]

Güzel Sule Recep Tayyip Erdogan University [email protected]

Haberl Helmut Institute of Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt

Harmackova Lenka Department of Zoology, Palacky University [email protected]

Harzhauser Mathias Museaum of Natural History Vienna [email protected]

Heidrich Lea University of Marburg, Animal Ecology [email protected]

Heigl Florian University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna [email protected]

Helm Aveliina University of Tartu [email protected]

Higgins Steven University of Otago [email protected]

Hof Christian Senckenberg Biodiversity & Climate Research Centre [email protected]

Hoffmann Samuel Biogeography, University of Bayreuth [email protected]

Huang Shan Senckenberg Biodiversity & Climate Research Centre [email protected]

Hülber Karl Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Irl Severin Department of Biogeography [email protected]

Jeschke Jonathan Freie Universitaet Berlin [email protected]

Junker Robert University of Salzburg [email protected]



Karger Dirk Nikolaus Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL [email protected]

Kienle David University of Bayreuth [email protected]

Klonner Günther Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

König Christian Biodiversity, Macroecology & Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen [email protected]

Koubinova Darina University in Lausanne [email protected]

Kreft Holger University of Göttingen [email protected]

Kühn Ingolf Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ [email protected]

Kuppler Jonas University of Salzburg [email protected]

Lamprecht Andrea GLORIA - BOKU / ÖAW [email protected]

Larcombe Matthew University of Otago [email protected]

Li Yaoqi Peking University [email protected]

Liu Yunpeng Peking University [email protected]

Lokatis Sophie Freie Universität Berlin [email protected]

Lorel Claire Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle [email protected]

Lötters Stefan Trier University [email protected]

Mahmoodi Mohammad Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands [email protected]

Majowski Patrizia Naturkundemuseum Augsburg [email protected]

Marin da Fonte Luis Fernando Trier University [email protected]

Meimberg Harald Boku [email protected]

Methorst Joel Senckenberg BiK-F [email protected]

Müllebner Harald Universität Wien Bachelor Student Biologie [email protected]

Nakhutsrishvili George Institute of Botany, Ilia State University [email protected]

Nobis Michael Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL [email protected]

Noroozi Jalil Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Payne Davnah Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment [email protected]

Pinkert Stefan Philipps-Universität-Marburg [email protected]

Radinger Johannes Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) [email protected]

Reitalu Triin Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology [email protected]

Ringelberg Jens University of Zürich [email protected]

Rumpf Sabine Bettina Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Sandanov Denis Institute of General and Experimental Biology of SB RAS [email protected]

Schweiger Andreas Ecoinfromatics and Biodiversity, Aarhus University [email protected]

Seebens Hanno Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre [email protected]

Sefc Kristina University of Graz [email protected]

Sefc Kristina University of Graz [email protected]

Senf Cornelius Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin [email protected]

Sikharulidze Shalva Institute of Botany, Ilia State University [email protected]

Spehn Eva Akademie der Naturwissenschaften Schweiz [email protected]

Steinbauer Klaus GLORIA ÖAW BOKU [email protected]

Steinbauer Manuel Aarhus University [email protected]

Su Xiangyan Peking University [email protected]



Szenteczki Mark University of Lausanne (CH) [email protected]

Tomasovych Adam Earth Science Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences [email protected]

Vecera Martin Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University [email protected]

Wagner Viktoria Masaryk University [email protected]

Wang Qinggang Peking University [email protected]

Weigand Anna Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany [email protected]

Weigelt Patrick University of Göttingen [email protected]

Weigelt Patrick University of Göttingen [email protected]

Wiemers Martin Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ [email protected]

Wiemers Martin Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ [email protected]

Winter Marten German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig [email protected]

Yardeni Gil Department für Botanik und Biodiversitätsforschung [email protected]

Zarkov Aleksandar Philipps University Marburg [email protected]

Zeuss Dirk Department of Ecology ¿ Animal Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Phillips-Universität Marburg [email protected]

Zurell Damaris Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL [email protected]

Zurell Damaris Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL [email protected]

Zuschin Martin Institut für Paläontologie [email protected]

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