Macro Review for the Knesset Finance Committee Ministry of Finance January 2012.
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Transcript of Macro Review for the Knesset Finance Committee Ministry of Finance January 2012.
Macro Review for the Knesset Finance Committee
Ministry of FinanceJanuary 2012
2011 - Summary
Growth4.8%
Unemployment5.6%
Taxes (NIS billions)211.3
Deficit (GDP percentage points)3.3%
Debt (initial estimate)74%
2
4.2%
-1.0%
1.5%
3.8%4.0%
0.8%
4.8% 4.8%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%Growth forecast Actual growth
Growth Forecast versus Actual Growth, 2008-2012
*Central Bureau of Statistics estimate
3
Euro zone 2011 is based on the first 11 months of the year.Israel 2011 is based on the first three quarters.
Global Unemployment Rates2008-2011
9.0
10.1
5.7
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
US Euro zone (17 countries) Israel
4
4.2%
-4.1%
13.6%
18.8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Investments, 2008-2011
Based on the first three quarters of 2011.
5
Between 2008-2011 investments rose 35%
1.1
0.6
-0.1
0.2
-0.6
-1.1
-0.7
-0.1
-0.8
-1.5
-0.7
1.1
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Tax collection in 2011 totaled NIS 211.3 billioncompared to a budget forecast of NIS 213.5 billion
Gap between Actual Tax Collection and Budget Planning, 2011
6
Deficit Ceiling versus Actual DeficitGDP Percentage Points
1.5%
6.0% 5.5%
3.0%2.1%
5.2%
3.7% 3.3%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%Deficit Ceiling Actual Deficit
7
Public DebtGDP Percentage Points
60
65
70
75
80
85
2008 2009 2010 2011*
* Preliminary estimates for 2011 8
Share IndicesJanuary 2011=100
9
* Index of top 50 shares
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
S&P 500
Tel Aviv 100
Euro Stoxx 50*
S&P Credit RatingIsrael & Western Europe, 2010-2012
CountryCurrent RatingChange in Rating
IsraelA+
AustriaAA+
ItalyBBB+
IrelandBBB+ X4BelgiumAA
UKAAA=GermanyAAA=HollandAAA=GreeceCC X12PortugalBB X5
SpainA
FranceAA+
SwedenAAA=* An arrow indicates an increase or decrease of one notch in the credit rating
10
Responsible Fiscal Policy
Importance:
Economic certainty
Low financing costs (for the government and the business sector)
Fiscal flexibility in a crisis
Credibility of the fiscal policy
Conformance to the expenditure framework according
to the fiscal rule prescribed by law
11
Revised Forecast for 2012
BudgetRevision*
Growth forecast4.0%3.2%
Tax revenues(NIS billions)
232.3221
Deficit (as percentage of GDP)
2.0%3.4%
*Assuming the euro zone does not disintegrate (withdrawal of one country or more) 12