INTRODUCTION

The latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across a GDP growth (at market prices)

estimate of 7.8% for the fiscal year 2015-16, with a range of 7.5% to 8.0%. The survey drew

responses from leading economists from the industry, banking and financial services sector.

The estimates indicate median forecasts and are based on the projections made by the

participating economists. In the current fiscal year, GDP growth is likely to be supported by

an uptick in industry and services sector performance. Based on the responses received, the

industry sector is estimated to grow by 6.5% in 2015-16 and the services sector by 10.3%.

The agriculture sector performance, however, might come under strain with the

meteorological department predicting sub-par monsoons this year. The median growth

forecast for agriculture and allied activities sector is 3.2% for the year 2015-16, with the

minimum and maximum range varying between 1.2% and 4.0%. Further, a majority of the

economists participating in the survey felt that achieving a growth between 8.1% and 8.5% in

2015-16.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)

Based on the responses received, the annual median GDP growth for the year 2015-16 is

projected at 7.8%. While the industry and services sector growth are expected to see an

uptick, the agriculture sector performance might witness moderation given the forecast of

subpar monsoon. The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put

at 3.2%, with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 1.2% and 4.0% respectively. As

per the survey results, GDP growth in the last quarter of 2014-15 is estimated at 7.5%,

implying an overall growth of 7.3% in 2014-15. This is in line with the revised estimate of

7.3% GDP growth for 2014-15 released last week. The ratio of gross fixed capital formation

to GDP is expected to remain around the present level.

INDIA INFLATION RATE

Consumer prices in India grew 5 percent year-on year in October of 2015, compared to 4.41

percent in September. It is the highest inflation rate in in four months boosted by higher than

expected rise in cost of food. Inflation Rate in India averaged 8.05 percent from 2012 until

2015, reaching an all-time high of 11.16 percent in November of 2013 and a record low of

3.69 percent in July of 2015. Inflation Rate in India is reported by the Ministry of Statistics

and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), India

USD/INR Foreign Exchange Rate

Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate forecast for October 2015.

The forecast for the beginning of October 65.51. The rate at the end 63.89. Maximum

rate 66.35, while minimum 62.61. The expected average of USD/INR exchange rate

64.7 for October 2015.

USD to INR forecast for November 2015.

The forecast for the beginning of November 63.89. The rate at the end 64.63.

Maximum rate 65.92, while minimum 63.34. The forecasted average of Dollar

exchange rate 64.26 for November 2015.

Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate forecast for December 2015.

The forecast for the beginning of December 64.63. The rate at the end 65.92.

Maximum rate 67.24, while minimum 64.6. The expected average of USD/INR

exchange rate 65.28 for December 2015.

USD to INR forecast for January 2016.

The forecast for the beginning of January 65.92. The rate at the end 66.05. Maximum

rate 67.37, while minimum 64.73. The forecasted average of Dollar exchange rate

65.99 for January 2016.

INDIA INTEREST RATE

The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate by a higher-than-expected 50 bps to

6.75 percent on September 29th, 2015. It is the fourth reduction this year, bringing the rate to

the lowest since April of 2011, as policymakers tried to bolster the economy. Interest Rate in

India averaged 6.71 percent from 2000 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 14.50 percent

in August of 2000 and a record low of 4.25 percent in April of 2009. Interest Rate in India is

reported by the Reserve Bank of India. In India, interest rate decisions are taken by the

Reserve Bank of India's Central Board of Directors. The official interest rate is the

benchmark repurchase rate. In 2014, the primary objective of the RBI monetary policy

became price stability, giving less importance to government's borrowing, the stability of the

rupee exchange rate and the need to protect exports. In February 2015, the government and

the central bank agreed to set a consumer inflation target of 4 percent, with a band of plus or

minus 2 percentage points, from the financial year ending in March 2017.