Macquarie Hartalega 1Q2014

7/27/2019 Macquarie Hartalega 1Q2014

1/5

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures .

MALAYSIAHART MK UnderperformPrice (at 04:27, 06 Aug 2013 GMT) RM6.80Valuation RM 3.30-4.90- PER 12-month target RM 4.25Upside/Downside % -37.512-month TSR % -35.1Volatility Index LowGICS sector Health Care Equipment & Services

Market cap RMm 5,024Market cap US$m 1,532Free float % 1530-day avg turnover US$m 0.8Number shares on issue m 738.9

Investment fundamentalsYear end 31 Mar 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue m 1,032.0 1,258.3 1,637.6 2,029.4EBIT m 306.8 333.7 369.6 407.8EBIT growth % 16.0 8.8 10.7 10.3Reported profit m 234.7 263.2 291.9 322.5

Adjusted profit m 234.7 263.2 291.9 322.5EPS rep sen 32.1 33.2 36.3 40.2EPS rep growth % 127.0 3.2 9.6 10.5EPS adj sen 32.1 33.1 36.3 40.2

EPS adj growth% 127.0 3.1 9.7 10.5

PER rep x 21.2 20.5 18.7 16.9PER adj x 21.2 20.5 18.7 16.9Total DPS sen 16.1 16.4 18.2 20.1Total div yield % 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0ROA % 36.2 29.6 26.3 26.5ROE % 33.9 28.6 25.4 24.6EV/EBITDA x 14.2 14.3 12.4 11.0Net debt/equity % -22.2 -15.9 -10.1 -6.9P/BV x 6.5 5.1 4.4 3.9

HART MK rel KLCI performance, & rechistory

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was noMacquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2013(all figures in MYR unless noted)

Analyst(s)Chi Hoong Ng +60 3 2059 8985 [email protected]

6 August 2013 Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia)Sdn. Bhd.

HartalegaTracking along, no big surprisesEvent Hartalega reported their 1Q14 results after market close on Tuesday (06-

Aug). 1Q14 net profit of RM62.9mn (+18% YoY, 1% QoQ) is in line with bothconsensus and our estimates, as it constitutes 24% of our and consensusestimates. Given the improving results were within expectation and shareprice has been outperforming its peers since January (42.9% vs industry avg36.4%), at 20.5x FY14E PER, we believe the stock is fully valued.

Impact Improving profit but margin weakened. The +18% YoY net profit growth is

impressive, but it is still within our expectation. The improvement in earningswas derived from stronger sales volume, but as competition intensifies,profitability per glove (EBITDA per glove) continues on a declining trend(4Q13: 3.40sen per glove, 1Q14: 3.29sen per glove). As more new capacity isexpected to be operational, the decline is inevitable, in our view.

Continue maintaining net cash position. Hartalega remains at a net cashposition, given the limited capex spending in Q1, as ground work at theSepang (NGC plant) site has only just started. Despite the fact that thesigning of the sales and purchase agreement was concluded in June,Hartalega has yet to pay for the land (RM97mn) pending regulatory approvalfor land conversion. Given that management expect the conversion to begranted soon, inclusive of the capex need for preliminary works, Hartalega s gearing ratio is likely to increase from -22% in Mar 13 to -16% by Mar 14.

Dilution has started. The 73.1mn warrants that were issued in June 2012are crucial for Hartalega, as the money raised from the conversion is neededfor its NGC plant expansion project. As the owner that owns 55.67% stakehas started converting some of the warrants in July 13, we believe the dilutionwill continue. The outstanding warrants are 10% of the current sharebase. Assuch, despite estimating 12.1% net profit growth for FY14E, post the dilution,we expect EPS to grow by only 3.2%.

Earnings and target price revision No change

Price catalyst

12-month price target: RM4.25 based on a PER methodology.

Catalyst: NGC progress update

Action and recommendation At 21x FY14E PER, we believe the stock is fully valued, given the unattractive

dividend yield at 2.4% (vs ~3% of Top Glove) and limited EPS growth for theyear at 3%, hence we reiterate our Underperform recommendation on thestock.


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Macquarie Research Hartalega

6 August 2013 2

Hartalega (HART MK, Underperform, Target Price: RM4.25)Quarterly Results 4Q/13A 1Q/14E 2Q/14E 3Q/14E Profit & Loss 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue m 270 278 301 328 Revenue m 1,032 1,258 1,638 2,029Gross Profit m 99 98 104 112 Gross Profit m 374 432 506 584Cost of Goods Sold m 171 180 197 216 Cost of Goods Sold m 658 827 1,131 1,445EBITDA m 91 82 89 97 EBITDA m 339 371 426 482Depreciati on m 9 9 9 9 Depreciation m 32 37 57 75

Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0Other Amortisat ion m 0 0 0 0 Other Amortisati on m 0 0 0 0EBIT m 81 73 80 88 EBIT m 307 334 370 408Net Interest Income m -0 -1 -1 -1 Net Interest Income m -1 -4 -4 -4

Associates m 0 0 0 0 Associates m 0 0 0 0Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0Other Pre-Tax Income m 0 0 0 0 Other Pre-Tax Income m 0 0 0 0Pre-Tax Profit m 81 72 79 87 Pre-Tax Profit m 306 330 366 404Tax Expense m -19 -14 -16 -17 Tax Expense m -71 -66 -73 -81Net Profit m 62 58 63 69 Net Profit m 235 264 292 323Minority Interests m -0 -0 -0 -0 Minority Interests m -0 -1 -1 -1

Reported Earnings m 62 58 63 69 Reported Earnings m 235 263 292 322Adjusted Earnings m 62 58 63 69 Adjusted Earnings m 235 263 292 322

EPS (rep) sen 8.5 7.5 7.8 8.6 EPS (rep) sen 32.1 33.2 36.3 40.2EPS (adj) sen 8.5 7.5 7.8 8.6 EPS (adj) sen 32.1 33.1 36.3 40.2EPS Growth yoy (adj) % 128.8 2.9 -2.5 4.0 EPS Growth (adj) % 127.0 3.1 9.7 10.5

PE (rep) x 15.4 20.5 18.7 16.9PE (adj) x 15.4 20.5 18.7 16.9

EBITDA Margin % 33.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 Total DPS sen 16.1 16.4 18.2 20.1

EBIT Margin % 30.2 26.3 26.4 26.7 Total Div Yield % 3.3 2.4 2.7 3.0Earnings Split % 26.5 21.9 23.8 26.2 Weighted Average Shares m 731 794 803 803Revenue Growth % 12.3 12.2 18.1 26.4 Period End Shares m 730 803 803 803EBIT Growth % 17.9 4.2 4.0 11.4

Profit and Loss Ratios 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow Analysis 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue Growth % 10.8 21.9 30.1 23.9 EBITDA m 339 371 426 482EBITDA Growth % 15.4 9.4 15.1 13.2 Tax Paid m -59 -66 -73 -81EBIT Growth % 16.0 8.8 10.7 10.3 Chgs in Working Cap m 36 -93 -59 -72Gross Profit Margin % 36.2 34.3 30.9 28.8 Net Interest Paid m -1 -4 -4 -4EBITDA Margin % 32.8 29.4 26.0 23.8 Other m -178 169 -1 -1EBIT Margin % 29.7 26.5 22.6 20.1 Operating Cashflow m 136 377 290 325Net Profit Margin % 22.8 21.0 17.9 15.9 Acquisiti ons m -0 0 0 0Payout Ratio % 50.1 49.5 50.0 50.0 Capex m -187 -250 -200 -200EV/EBITDA x 10.1 14.3 12.4 11.0 Asset Sales m 0 0 0 0EV/EBIT x 11.2 15.9 14.3 13.0 Other m 0 0 0 0

Investing Cashflow m -187 -250 -200 -200Balance Sheet Ratios Dividend (Ordinary) m -99 -119 -137 -152ROE % 33.9 28.6 25.4 24.6 Equity Raised m 182 -7 0 0

ROA % 36.2 29.6 26.3 26.5 Debt Movements m -12 96 -0 -108ROIC % 49.0 44.8 32.7 29.5 Other m 0 0 0 0Net Debt/Equity % -22.2 -15.9 -10.1 -6.9 Financing Cashflow m 70 -30 -138 -259Interest Cover x 339.7 82.1 90.9 100.3Price/Book x 4.7 5.1 4.4 3.9 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m 19 97 -48 -134Book Value per Share 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7

Free Cashflow m -51 127 90 125

Balance Sheet 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Cash m 182 279 231 97Receivables m 125 140 177 222Inventories m 87 143 189 244Investments m 1 1 1 1Fixed Assets m 535 748 891 1,017Intangibles m 7 7 7 7Other Assets m 0 0 0 0Total Assets m 936 1,319 1,496 1,587Payables m 93 73 96 124Short Term Debt m 8 8 8 0Long Term Debt m 4 100 100 0Provisions m 0 0 0 0Other Liabili ties m 65 64 64 64Total Liabilities m 170 245 268 188Shareholders' Funds m 766 1,073 1,227 1,398Minority Interests m 1 1 1 1Other m 0 0 0 0Total S/H Equity m 767 1,074 1,228 1,399Total Liab & S/H Funds m 936 1,319 1,496 1,587

All figures in MYR unless noted.Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2013

Other company mentioned: Top Glove (TOPG MK, RM6.00, Neutral, TP: RM5.95).


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6 August 2013 3

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New ZealandOutperform return >3% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 3% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >3% below benchmark return

Benchmark return is determined by long term nominalGDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividendyield

Macquarie Asia/EuropeOutperform expected return >+10%

Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return +10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USAOutperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell3000 index returnNeutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 indexreturnUnderperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000index return

Volatility index definition*This is calculated from the volatility of historicalprice movements.

Very high highest risk Stock should beexpected to move up or down 60 100% in a year

investors should be aware this stock is highlyspeculative.

High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors shouldbe aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium stock should be expected to move upor down at least 30 40% in a year.

Low medium stock should be expected tomove up or down at least 25 30% in a year.

Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year.* Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocksonly

Recommendations 12 monthsNote: Quant recommendations may differ fromFundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the followingadjustments made:

Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, propertyrevals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /averagetotal assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted averagenumber of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocksare modelled under IFRS (International FinancialReporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2013 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR

Outperform 49.80% 57.68% 48.05% 41.13% 61.75% 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Neutral 39.85% 24.45% 42.86% 54.70% 34.42% 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.60% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Underperform 10.35% 17.87% 9.09% 4.17% 3.83% 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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5/5

Asia ResearchHead of Equ ity Research

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ConglomeratesAlex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840

Consumer and GamingGary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489

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Tammy Lai (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7525

TelecomsNathan Ramler (Asia, J apan) (813) 3512 7875Danny Chu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4762Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486Prem J earajasingam

(Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

J oseph Quinn (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7519

Transport & Infrastructure

J anet Lewis (Asia, J apan) (852) 3922 5417Bonnie Chan (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3898Nicholas Cunningham (J apan) (813) 3512 6044Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Corinne J ian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Utilities & RenewablesInderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087Prem J earajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

CommoditiesColin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061

J im Lennon (4420) 3037 4271Duncan Hobbs (4420) 3037 4497Graeme Train (8621) 2412 9035Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093

EconomicsPeter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, J apan) (813) 3512 7850

Aimee Kaye (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0574Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935 Tanvee Gupta (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative / CPGGurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036

J osh Holcroft (Asia). (852) 3922 1279Burke Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 5494Simon Rigney (Asia, J apan) (852) 3922 4719Eric Yeung (Asia) (852) 3922 4077Suni Kim (J apan) (813) 3512 7569

Strategy/CountryViktor Shvets (Asia) (852) 3922 3883Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769

J oshua van Lin (Asia Micro) (852) 3922 1425Peter Eadon-Clarke (J apan) (813) 3512 7850David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

J iong Shao (China) (852) 3922 3566Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6121) 2598 8366Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Find our research atMacquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research

Thomson: www.thomson.com/financialReuters: www.knowledge.reuters.comBloomberg: MAC GOFactset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspxCapitalIQ www.capitaliq.comEmail [email protected] for access

Asia SalesRegional Heads of SalesRobin Black (Asia) (852) 3922 2074Chris Gray (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0288Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502

J effrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061 Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712Bharat Rawla (India) (9122) 6720 4100

Chris Gould (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555Miki Edelman (J apan) (813) 3512 7857 J ohn J ay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988Ruben Boopalan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559Paul Colaco (New York) (1 212) 231 2496

Regional Heads of Sales con tdSheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5001Erica Wang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7586Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

J ulien Roux (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4867Sean Alexander (Generalist) (852) 3922 2101

Regional Head of Distribution J ustin Crawford (Asia) (852) 3922 2065

Sales TradingAdam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002Phil Sellaroli (J apan) (813) 3512 7837Kenneth Cheung (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Sales Trading contdMike Keen (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582Dominic Shore (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Macquarie Hartalega 1Q2014

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Transcript of Macquarie Hartalega 1Q2014