Machine Intelligence: Promises and Challenges
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Transcript of Machine Intelligence: Promises and Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 1/22 1 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Machine Intelligence: Promises and Challenges
Alaa Khamis, PhD, SMIEEE
Principal Consultant at MIO, Waterloo, Canada
Associate Professor at Suez University, Egypt
http://www.alaakhamis.org/
Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015 Machine Intelligence and Optimization
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 2/22 2 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Talk Description
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 3/22 3 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Outline
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 4/22 4 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Human versus Machine Intelligence Credit: Techne Summit 2015
Introduction to Machine Intelligence
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 5/22 5 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Machine vs. Human
• distinguishing faces
• identifying objects and
• recognizing language sounds Brain
Hamburger
Introduction to Machine Intelligence
Better in
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 6/22 6 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Machine vs. Human
• dealing with more complex patterns
such as that exist in financial,
scientific, or product data.
• operations that require fast, precise,
highly repeatable actions
• Working in harsh environments
Machine
Introduction to Machine Intelligence
Better in
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 7/22 7 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Brian Functions
Introduction to Machine Intelligence
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 8/22 8 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Machine Intelligence = Non-biological Intelligence
Inspired from Natural Sciences
Non-biological Intelligence
Neural Networks
Computational Intelligence (CI)Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Metaheuristics
Trajectory-based Population-based
Evolutionary Computing Swarm Intelligence
Mathematics, probability and Statistics
Fuzzy Logic
Inspired from Social Sciences
Classical AI Distributed AI (DAI)
Psychology,
linguistics, logic Neuro-physiology
Bayesian Techniques
Reinforcement Learning
Behaviorist
psychologyParallel
Problem
Solving
Distributed
Problem
Solving
Multiagent-based
Simulation (MABS)
Introduction to Machine Intelligence
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 9/22 9 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Levels of Intelligence:
Smart Phones
Phones
Cognitive Phones
Introduction to Machine Intelligence
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 10/22 10 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Outline
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 11/22 11 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
• Paradigm Shift
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 12/22 12 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
• Paradigm Shift
Largest direct marketing platform
World’s largest bookseller
Fastest growing entertainment companies
Fastest growing telecom company
Fastest growing recruiting company
[1]
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 13/22 13 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
• Paradigm Shift
18.49
16.77
2.83 2.49
2 1.86 1.78 1.4
0.27
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
European
Union
USA Arab World Africa 8 Top Tech
Companies
Russia Canada Australia Egypt
GD
P (
tril
lion U
S$)
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 14/22 14 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 15/22 15 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 16/22 16 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
302% increase in funding received in 2014 by machine
intelligence start-ups in areas such as natural language processing,
predictive analytics and deep learning
Total venture capital money for pure AI start-ups, by year
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 17/22 17 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Smart Cities
Application Domains and Trends
Smart
City
Market
Source: Frost and Sullivan
Smart cities to crate
huge business
opportunities with a
market value of 1.5
Trillion $ in 2020.
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 18/22 18 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Consumer Electronics
Smart
Bluetooth®
Speaker
BSP60
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 19/22 19 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
[5]
• Robotics
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 20/22 20 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Robots now are with us, within us and among us
• Robotics
Application Domains and Trends
[5]
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 21/22 21 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Google commits $1.36
billion for NASA
facility, to house their
robotics, space and
flight technologies [More info:
http://robohub.org/google-commits-
1-36-billion-for-nasa-facility-to-house-
their-robotics-space-and-flight-
technologies/
• Robotics
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 22/22 22 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
◊ Congress has mandated that by
2015, 1/3rd of all US military
missions should be unmanned.
◊ There are 17,300 drones in the
US army inventory.
◊ These drones can carry up to
3000 pounds of weapons.
◊ Fabricated by Boeing
A forward looking infrared
(FLIR) camera onUAV
UAV carrying
Viper Strike
Weapon
System
Source: http://www.marketresearchmedia.com/?p=509
• Robotics
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 23/22 23 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
The Transparent Car
• Machine Vision
Application Domains and Trends
According to a new report
from , the market for
computer vision
technologies will grow from
$5.7 billion in 2014 to
$33.3 billion by 2019 ,
representing a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 42%.
5.7
33.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Year-2014 Year-2019
Mar
ket
siz
e (B
illi
on U
SD
)
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 24/22 24 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Automatic recognition of fabric defects
(visual inspection)
Lane detection Face Detection
• Machine Vision
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 25/22 25 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Alfred Russel Wallace
Charles Darwin
Charles
Darwin
Alan Turing with
Darwin’s beard
Face Recognition
[6]
• Machine Vision
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 26/22 26 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Behind the Mic: The Science of Talking with Computers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxxRAHVtafI
• Speech Recognition
SPEECH RECOGNIZER
Speaker
Recognized text
Acoustic
Model
Dictionary &
Grammar
Speech signal
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 27/22 27 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Global voice recognition market to reach $113 Billion in 2017 [More info: http://www.bccresearch.com/pressroom/ift/global-voice-recognition-market-reach-$113-billion-2017 ]
• Speech Recognition
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 28/22 28 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Visual Microphone
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 29/22 29 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Natural Language Processing (NLP)
◊ Machine translation
◊ Optical character recognition (OCR)
◊ Natural language understanding
◊ Topic segmentation and recognition
◊ Language Modeling in Speech recognition
◊ Information retrieval (IR)and extraction (IE)
◊ …
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 30/22 30 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Natural Language Processing (NLP)
Source: Natural Language Processing Market, by marketsandmarkets.com, June 2015, Report Code: TC 3492
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 31/22 31 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Predictive Maintenance
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 32/22 32 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Predictive Analytics and Big Data
Discover, optimize, and deploy predictive models by analysing
data sources to improve business outcomes.
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 33/22 33 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
IoT brings physical and digital worlds together. It replaces
ownership by remote access and sharing.
[2]
• Internet of Things (IoT)
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 34/22 34 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
[3]
• Internet of Things (IoT)
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 35/22 35 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Biology: tumor detection,
drug discovery
Energy: Load, price
forecasting, trading
Financial Services: identify prospective customers, dissatisfied
customers, good customers and bad payers.
Security: Face recognition,
Signature/fingerprint/iris
verification, DNA fingerprinting
Internet: Hit ranking,
Spam filtering, Text
categorization
• Others
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 36/22 36 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Machine Intelligence Landscape
Application Domains and Trends
[4]
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 37/22 37 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Technological singularity
hypothesis is that accelerating
progress in technologies will cause a
runaway effect wherein artificial
intelligence will exceed human
intellectual capacity and control, thus
radically changing or even ending
civilization in an event called the
singularity [10].
Application Domains and Trends • Technological Singularity
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 38/22 38 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
[5]
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 39/22 39 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Genetics
Emerging Technologies
Nano-technology Robotics
Humanity’s artificial-intelligence capabilities begin to
upstage our human intelligence at the end of the 2030s
[6].
Accelerating progress
in biotechnology will
enable us to
reprogram our genes
and metabolic
processes.
Nanotechnology promises
the tools to rebuild the
physical world, our bodies,
and our brains, molecular
fragment by molecular
fragment and potentially
atom by atom.
Creation of machine
thinking ability that
exceeds the thinking ability
of humans.
Immortality by 2045!
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 40/22 40 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Application Domains and Trends
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 41/22 41 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Outline
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 42/22 42 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 43/22 43 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
1. Technological Challenges
Challenges
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• Big Data
Challenges
90% of the world’s
stock of data was
generated in the
past two years.
99% of that is now
digitized, and over
half IP-enabled.
Multimodal
structured and
unstructured
data (Human-
space, sensor-
space and
Internet-space)
Data is dynamically changing
Relevant data (used to be only 10% of all the data)
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 45/22 45 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Lack of domain tools
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 46/22 46 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Time Consuming
Challenges
Integrated Machine-learning and Knowledge Acquisition Approach [7]
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 47/22 47 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Model performance Evaluation and Iterative Process
Challenges E
rro
r
Training Cycles
Training error
Too simple model Too complex model
Underfitting
High bias
Low variance
Overfitting
Low bias
High variance
Best balance
smallest testing error and
acceptable training error
Testing
error
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 48/22 48 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Individual Behaviour
i-Level
Algorithm–based Behaviour
Group behaviour
g-Level
• g-Level Algorithms
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 49/22 49 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• g-Level Algorithms
Challenges
The problem of designing both the physical morphology and
behaviours of the individual agents such that when those agents
interact with each other and their environment, the desired
overall collective behaviours will emerge.
At present there are no principled approaches to the design of
low-level behaviours for a given desired collective
behaviour [8].
“collective behavior is NOT simply the sum of each
participant’s behavior, as others emerge at the society level” [9].
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 50/22 50 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Challenges
• Industry-Academia Collaboration
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 51/22 51 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
2. Business Challenges
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 52/22 52 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• The Innovator’s Dilemma
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 53/22 53 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• The Innovator’s Dilemma
Challenges
expensive
navigation systems
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 54/22 54 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
3. Social Impact
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 55/22 55 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact
Challenges
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 56/22 56 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact: Privacy
Challenges
Collecting data happens invisibly and passively, as a by product
of another service.
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 57/22 57 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact: Impact on human skills and intelligence
Challenges
Research is needed to answer the following open questions:
How does machine intelligence affect human cognitive
processes and reduce our overall intelligence?
Does machine intelligence hurt the development of our
hippocampus, impact our critical thinking skills, hinder
knowledge acquisition, and harm our ability to
concentrate?
Cleveland Amory (1917-1998) American Author
“In my day the schools taught two things,
love of country and penmanship — now
they don’t teach either.”
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 58/22 58 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact: Changing Social Norms
Challenges
Physical activities
Face-to-face interaction
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 59/22 59 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact: Employment
Challenges
A study out of Oxford
University in 2014 found that
in the near future artificially
intelligent technology could
take over nearly half of all
U.S. jobs.
We can expect a wave of structural unemployment to spring
from the technology in the medium term.
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 60/22 60 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact
Challenges Top 10 countries by robot density
(industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers)
[15]
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 61/22 61 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
• Social Impact
Challenges
1
10
100
1000
Japan Singapor South
Korea
Germany Sweden Italy Finland Belgium US Spain
Robot denisty
in 2008
Total
unemploymen
t rate in 2008
There is a negative correlation between robot density and unemployment rate (-0.44)
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 62/22 62 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015 Machine Intelligence and Optimization
MUSES_SECRET: ORF-RE Project - © PAMI Research Group – University of Waterloo 63/22 63 Techne Summit 2015 © Dr. Alaa Khamis
Bibliotheca Alexandrina, Alexandria, October 24-25, 2015 Machine Intelligence and Optimization
Thank you for your attention
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