1

Lleqcia 4 – fulis bazari(LM modeli)

M

makroekonomika

fulis funqciebi

2

mimoqcevis saSualeba. – am funqciis mixedviT fulis saSualebiT vaxorcielebT saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidva gayidvas(likvidobis Tviseba).

dagrivebis saSualeba _ adamianebi mTel Tavis fuls umal ar xarjeven roca ki maT miiReben. maT uCndebaT survili sxva dros SeiZinon esa Tu is saqoneli da momsaxureba. amasTan dakavSirebiT fuls gaaCnia Rirebulebis Senaxvis Tvisaba da maSasadame dagrovebis funqciac.

Rirebulebis sazomi _ fulis saSualebiT vaxdenT bazarze arsebuli n raodenobis produqciis Rirebulebis Sefasebas. is bazarze Rirebulebis sazom ganyenebul saSualebad gvevlineba. amitom misi saSualebiT SegviZlia gamovsaxoT n raodenobis produqciis fardobiTi fasebi, gansazRvrul fulad erTeulSi.

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

Sesavali

fulis masis struqtura

3

fulis ori Tviseba: maRali likviduroba da Rirebulebis Senaxvis Tviseba – ar axasiaTebs Tanabari xarisxiT fulis yvela saxeobas. naRdi fuli da moTxovnamde depozitebi ufro likviduria, vidre Semnaxveli depozitebi an vadiani depozitebi. magram es ukanasknelebi ufro momgebiania Rirebulebis Senaxvis kuTxiT. amis mixedviT fulad statistikaSi gamoyofen fulis oTx agregats:

1. M0= naRdi fuli da monetebi mimoqcevaSi;

2. M1= M0+ moTxovnamde anabrebi;

3. M2= M1+ ucxouri valuta, moklevadiani fasiani qaRaldebi, saSualovadiani anabrebi, Semnaxveli anabrebi;

4. M3= M2+ vadiani anabrebi, fasiani qaRaldebi;

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

Sesavali

fulis masis struqtura saqarTveloSi 2008 dekembris mdgomareobiT

4

Mo=1,290,703,285 lari

M1=1,642,081,787 lari

M2=1,862,498,000 lari

M3=4,305,126,000 lari

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

Sesavali

5

erovnuli bankis balansis ZiriTadi muxlebi

aqtivebi valdebulebebi

oqros rezervebi

ucxouri valutis rezervebi

mTavrobis wminda davalianeba

bankebis wminda davalianeba

sxva aqtivebi

naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi

depozitebi komerciul bankebSi

saxelmwifos depozitebi

sxva valdebulebebi

erovnli banki sakuTari aqtivebis SemcirebiT amcirebs fulis masas mimoqcevaSi, xolo gazrdiT zrdis.

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

Sesavali

6

komerciuli bankebis balansis ZiriTadi muxlebi

aqtivebi valdebulebebi

minimaluri savaldebulo rezervebi

Warbi rezervebi

kreditebi

sxva aqtivebi

moTxovnamde depozitebi

vadiani depozitebi

sxva valdebulebebi

erovnli banki uwesebs komerciul bankebs minimalur savaldebulo rezervebis normas, romlis mixedviTac komerciuli bankebi TavinTi aqtivebis nawils inaxaven erovnul bankSi.

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

Sesavali

7

fulis multiplikatori – rogor qmnis sabanko seqtori fuls?

rodesac erovnuli banki sxvadasxva instrumentebis gamoyenebiT zrdis mimoqcevaSi fulis masas(vTqvaT 100 ful. erT.). es fuli pirdapiri Tu iribi gziT xvdeba komerciul bankebSi, romlebic savaldebulo rezervebis normis(vTq. rezervebis norma m=10%) gaTvaliswinebiT

fulis nawils isev erovnul bankSi inaxaven( 100.10%=10) nawili kvlav gadis mimoqcevaSi kreditebis saxiT(90 erT.). es fuli kvlav brundeba komerciul bankebSi. komerciuli bankebi kvlav inaxaven savaldebulo

rezervebs erovnul bankSi (90.10%=9) da darCenil Tanxas kvlav uSveben mimoqcevaSi(72 erT.) es procesi usasrulod gagrZeldeba. Cven SegviZlia es procesi Semdegi saxiT CavweroT:

ΔM0 –is Tanamamravli usasrulo geometriuli progresiis jamia, romelic tolia: - fulis martivi multiplikatori. igi gviCvenebs ramdeniT gaizrdeba fulis masa Tu erovnuli banki erTi erTeuliT gazrdis fulis miwodebas mimoqcevaSi.

MmmmmM 0))))) 1(...1(1(1(1( 32

mm /1))1(1/((1

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

fulis multiplikatori

8

fulze moTxovna garigebebisaTvis.

fulis ori umTavresi funqciidan gamodinare – fuli rogorc mimoqcevis saSualeba da fuli, rogorc dagrovebis saSualeba – adamianebi sxvadasxva motiviT ayalibeben fulze moTxovnas:

1. fulze moTxovna garigebebisaTvis – romelic fulis, rogorc mimoqcevis saSualebis funqciidan gamomdinareobs.

2. fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze (spekulaciuri motiviT) - romelic fulis, rogorc dagrovebis saSualebis funqciidan gamomdinareobs.

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

fulze moTxovna

9

fulze moTxovna garigebebisaTvis

yoveli lari wlis ganmavlobaSi ramdenime garigebas debs, sidides romelic fulis erTi erTeulis mier garigebebis ganxorcielebis sixSires gamoxatavs drois garkveul SualedSi fulis brunvis siCqare(V) ewodeba.

Tu viciT ramdenia fulis masa mimoqcevaSi(M) da fulis brunvis siCqare(V), maSin MMV iqneba drois garkveul SualedSi mTeli garigebebis nominaluri Rirebuleba.

Cven viciT rom Tu Y aris mTlei wlis manZilze warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba, xolo P fasebis done, maSin PY iqneba wlis manZilze warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba. igive nominaluri mSp.

wlis manZilze warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba toli unda iyos wlis ganmavlobaSi mTeli garigebebis nominaluri Rirebulebis. maSasadame gveqneba:

PYMV

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

fulze moTxovna

10

Tu Cven gamosaxulebas Semdegnairad gadavwerT:

miviRebT garigebebisaTvis fulze moTxovnis gantolebas.

YVP

ML

D

tr

1

garigebebisaTvis fulze moTxovnis grafiki

tgα=1/V

M/P

Y

α

LD

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

fulze moTxovna

11

fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze

fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze, igive spekulaciuri moTxovna ukavSirdeba saojaxo meurneonebis mier momavlisadmi optimistur Tu pesimistur ganwyobas da agreTve safinanso bazarze riskisa da gaurkvevlobis mdgomareobas. amitomac mas ukavSirdeba miswrafeba naRdi fulis SenarCunebisaken – midrekileba likvidurobisaken.

midrekileba likvidurobisaken moqmedebs saprocento ganakveTis sidideze da mis ryevaze. rac ufro maRalia midrekileba likvidurobisaken, miT maRalia saprocento ganakveTi da piriqiT.

meoresmxriv saprocento ganakveTic zemoqmedebs likvidurobisaken midrekilebaze. rac ufro maRalia saprocento ganakveTi, miT maRalia midrekileba likvidurobisaken da piriqiT. maSsadema fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze Segvizlia gamovsaxoT:

)(

iLLD

as

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

fulze moTxovna

12

i

M

fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze

)(

iLLD

as

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

fulze moTxovna

wonasworoba fulis bazarze – LM modeli

wonasworoba fulis bazarze myardeba maSin, roca fulize moTxovna(L) da fulis mowodeba(M) erTmaneTis tolia. aqedan gamomdinareobs Tavad modelis saxelwodebac.

fulis miwodeba iTvleba egzogenurad mocemulad, radgan erovnuli banki sakuTari amocanebis Sesabamisad axorcielebs fulis miwodebas.

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

LM modeli

wonasworoba fulis bazarze – LM modeli

i

YLa

s

Ltr

M/P

M/P

)(

iLLD

as

1/V

YVL

D

tr

1

LM

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

LM modeli

Tu icvleba midrekileba likvidurobisaken (Cvens SemTxvevaSi mcirdeba)

i

YLa

s

Ltr

M/P

M/P

)(

iLLD

as

1/V

YVL

D

tr

1

LM

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

LM modeli

Tu moTxovna fulze rogorc qonebaze icvleba(Cvens SemTxvevaSi izrdeba)

i

YLa

s

Ltr

M/P

M/P

)(

iLLD

as

1/V

YVL

D

tr

1

LM

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

LM modeli

Tu moTxovna fulze garigebebisaTvis icvleba (Cvens SemTxvevaSi izrdeba)

i

YLa

s

Ltr

M/P

M/P

)(

iLLD

as

YVL

D

tr

1

LM

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

LM modeli

Tu fulis miwodebas cvlis erovnuli banki (Cvens SemTxvevaSi amcirebas)

i

YLa

s

Ltr

M/P

M/P

)(

iLLD

as

YVL

D

tr

1

LM

leqcia 34– fulis bazari(LM modeli)

LM modeli

ZiriTadi cnebebi da sakiTxebi

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

• fulis funqciebi1. mimoqcevis saSualeba2. dagrovebis saSualeba3. Rirebulebis sazomi

• fulis masis struqtura• erovnuli bankis balansi• komerciuli bankis balansi

• fulis martivi multiplikatori• fulze moTxovna1. fulze moTxovna garigebebisaTvis2. fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze • fulis brunvis siCqare• midrekileba likvidurobisaken