Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area
description
Transcript of Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area
![Page 1: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Lyme Disease and West Nile VirusRisk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground,
Edgewood Area
Thomas M. Kollars, Jr., PhD
Entomological Sciences Program, CHPPM
![Page 2: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Lyme Disease Risk Model• 1. Study conducted June 2001 through April 2002• 2. Sites – 10 areas, 3 habitats
– Wooded– Ecotone– Field
• 3. Environmental Variables– Elevation (min, max, mean)– Habitat Type– Tree Density– Canopy Cover– Shrub– Herbaceous– Monocot– Fern
![Page 3: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Regression Analysis of adult I. scapularis and Habitat Variables
![Page 4: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Based upon shrub density as correlated with adult Ixodes scapularis using regression model
When mean of 200 sample points are used/10m intersect
R sqr. =0.87
F (1, 18)=120
P<0.001
![Page 5: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Lyme Disease Risk Assessment Edgewood Area from adult Black-legged Ticks
>1 Tick
>.5 and < 1 Tick
< .5 Tick
![Page 6: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Accuracy of Lyme Disease Risk Model based on shrub density
Model tested in March/April 200234 sites 2m2 dragged
1= <17 shrub 2= 17-25 3>25 shrubs
![Page 7: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• Mpb Matapex silt loam 2%-5% slope, mean 0.57
• Roa Romney and Elkton soils, cratered, mean 0.32
• Ud Udorthents, loamy, 0 to 10 % Slopes, mean 0.12
• BeB Beltville silt loam, 2 to 5 % slopes, mean 0.23
• MU Mattapex-Udorthents-Urban, 0 to 2 % slope, mean 0.00
• BeA Beltville silt loam, 0 to 2 % slopes, mean 1.00
• Ot Othello silt loam, mean 0.0
Comparison of adult I. scapularis among soil types using ANOVA and LSD (where > 6 samples were taken)
![Page 8: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Risk assessment of adult I. scapularis based on soil type at Edgewood area (APG) (p<0.05)
1 tick per 4m2
1 tick per 9m2
1 tick per 17m2
![Page 9: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Risk Assessment Map of Aberdeen Proving Ground based upon extrapolated adult Black-legged Tick and Soil Classification
1 tick per 4m2
1 tick per 9m2
1 tick per 17m2
![Page 10: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
West Nile Risk Assessment
• 10 study areas, 3 habitats each 2001
• June 0330 –0730 identify bird species
• July through October - Landing counts 0600-0730
• Model using Sugeno and Takagi Fuzzy Reasoning
![Page 11: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
West Nile Virus Risk Assessment
![Page 12: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mosquito Feeding and Flight Behavior
![Page 13: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
West Nile Virus Potential At Edgewoodbased upon Sugeno and Takagi Fuzzy Reasoning
Bird Risk = (fuzzy (wnv antibody x flock))
= BRMosquito Risk = (fuzzy (ornithophilic x homophilic)) = MR
1 = BR1(BRO) MR1(MRO)
min {High (BRO), High (MRO)}
= 0.752 = BR2(BRO) MR2(MRO)
= min {Moderate (BRO), Moderate (MRO)}
= 0.5
High WNVP1 = High (BRO) + High (MRO)
= 1.60 + 2.05= 3.65
Moderate WNVP2 = Moderate (BRO) + Moderate (MRO)
= 1.40 + 1.37= 2.77
Control Measures Should Be Implemented When WNVP =
0 = 11 + 22 / 1 + 2
= 4.12 / 1.25= 3.3
![Page 14: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
De-fuzzified WNV Risk at each Site
![Page 15: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
IPM Mosquito Control
Continuous Surveillance
Periodic Surveillance
West Nile Risk Assessment Edgewood AreaUsing Fuzzy Logic Model
![Page 16: Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus Risk Assessment Aberdeen Proving Ground, Edgewood Area](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051218/56815a73550346895dc7d8e4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Continuing Surveillance
• Tick-borne Disease surveillance– Continue to refine adult black-legged tick prediction
– Identify variables associated with immature tick populations
– Identify variables associated with other tick species
– Test infection rates of ticks by PCR
– Expand and test model at other installations
• Arbo-virus / West Nile Virus Surveillance– Continue to identify bird and mosquito species
– Test infection rates in mosquitoes by PCR
– Expand surveillance to other installations