Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
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Transcript of Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
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7/22/2019 Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
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Golf and Analytics:
A Brief History
- Data was hard to come by
- You had to get it yourself- Collected Data the Yogi Berra Way
- Golf itself was somewhat anti-analytical
- Jack Reddy 1963 US Open
- Cochran and Stobbs- Clyne Soley
- Fran Schied
- 1974 US Open Sports Illustrated
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95 Scorer
0 Greens, 37 Putts
89 Scorer
3 Greens, 35 Putts
79 Scorer
8 Greens, 32 Putts 69 Scorer
13 Greens, 29 putts
Summary Stats by Ability Level
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ShotLink System
Every Shot/Every Player/Every PGA
Controlled Tournament
Nearly 1.5 million shots per year
ShotLink is Golf Statistical Heaven!
ShotLink
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Dustin Johnson
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Justin Rose
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Phil Mickelson
29.4% 3
12.0%
68.1% 4
G 27.8%
75.5% 3.73 2.5% 5
40.8% 1.0%
0.0% 6
0.0%
F 0.0% 7
5 4.1 % 3 .8 5 0.0%
76.0% 4
G 9.7%
96.2% 4.24 24.0% 5
12.8% 3.1%
0.0% 6
NG 0.0%
24.5% 4.23 0.0% 7
13.3% 0.0%
0 .0 % 2 .0 0
0.0% 100.0% 5
NG G 0.3%
Tee 1.9% 5.00 100.0% 5.00 0.0% 6
3.92 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%1.9% 3 0.0% 7
0.3% 0.0%
0.0% 8
0.0%
0.0% 5
NG 0.0%
0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 4 0.0% 7
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 8
0.0%
30.7% 3
G 7.9%
56.1% 3.72 66.3% 4
25.8% 17.1%
3.0% 5
0.8%
NF 0.0% 6
4 5.9 % 4 .0 1 0.0%
64.5% 4
G 12.5%
96.2% 4.39 32.9% 5
19.4% 6.4%
1.3% 6
NG 0.3%
43.9% 4.37 1.3% 7
20.2% 0.3%
0 .0 % 2 .0 0
0.0% 100.0% 5
NG G 0.3%
1.3% 5.00 100.0% 5.00 0.0% 6
0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
2.5% 3 0.0% 7
0.5% 0.0%
0.0% 5
NG 0.0%
0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 4 0.0% 7
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 8
0.0%
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Tiger Woods
32.2% 3
17.2%
67.8% 4
G 36.1%
76.1% 3.68 0.0% 5
53.3% 0.0%
0.0% 6
0.0%
F 0.0% 7
7 0.0 % 3 .8 4 0.0%
75.8% 4
G 11.0%
86.8% 4.24 24.2% 5
14.5% 3.5%
0.0% 6
NG 0.0%
23.9% 4.34 0.0% 7
16.7% 0.0%
0 .0 % 2 .0 0
0.0% 75.0% 5
NG G 1.3%
Tee 10.5% 5.50 100.0% 5.50 0.0% 6
3.96 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%2.6% 3 25.0% 7
0.4% 0.4%
0.0% 8
0.0%
0.0% 5
NG 0.0%
0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 4 0.0% 7
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 8
0.0%
19.4% 3
G 2.6%
45.6% 3.81 80.6% 4
13.7% 11.0%
0.0% 5
0.0%
NF 0.0% 6
3 0.0 % 4 .2 5 0.0%
39.4% 4
G 5.7%
89.2% 4.64 57.6% 5
14.5% 8.4%
3.0% 6
NG 0.4%
54.4% 4.62 0.0% 7
16.3% 0.0%
0 .0 % 2 .0 0
0.0% 100.0% 5
NG G 1.3%
8.1% 5.00 100.0% 5.00 0.0% 6
1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
2.7% 3 0.0% 7
0.4% 0.0%
0.0% 5
NG 0.0%
0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 4 0.0% 7
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 8
0.0%
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Phil Averages 3.92 vs. Tigers
3.96If in Fairway, About the Same
Phil 3.85, Tiger 3.84
If Fairway Missed, Phil Has the
AdvantagePhil 4.01, Tiger 4.25
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26.1% 3G 68.8% 4
74.1% 3 7 9 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7
76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5
59.1% 3 8 9 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7
NG 0.0% 525.9% 4 1 8 G 0.0% 6
Te e 0.0% 0.0% 74 4 0.0% 2 NG 0.0% 8
3.6% 4NG 0.0% 5
3.6% 3 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 7
100.0% 4 0.0% 8
A Regular Player Lacks
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26.1% 3G 68.8% 4
74.1% 3 7 9 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7
76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5
70.0% 3 89 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7
Tee NG4 25.9% 4 1 8
If Ben Had Received Tigers Fairway DNA
26.1% 3G 68.8% 4
74.1% 3 79 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7
76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5
59.1% 3 8 9 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7
Tee NG4 4 25.9% 4 18
Original Skill of Ben Curtis
Ben Curtis Inherits Tigers Fairway Accuracy
Tigers Fairway Accuracy
- 0.04 point
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http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=a-jnYm0G5V8F0M&tbnid=Q_FC5DuANQwOmM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://3jack.blogspot.com/2009/04/statistical-analysis-of-tigers-driving.html&ei=V97KUdGjMeSP0QG8uoD4BA&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNG7nmS9_0L2efzF8vCqBu0EhGa-fA&ust=1372335815642468http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=WnYFieWPikQxNM&tbnid=maWZY4tRR5fNAM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2306723/MASTERS-2013-PREVIEW-Tiger-Woods-wake-smell-azaleas-hell-need-driver-win.html&ei=0t3KUaOxJsbG0gGml4HoDQ&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNG7nmS9_0L2efzF8vCqBu0EhGa-fA&ust=1372335815642468 -
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26.1% 3G 68.8% 4
84.9% 3 7 9 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7
76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5
59.1% 3 8 5 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7
Te e NG4 1 15.1% 4 1 8
0.0% 2
Or Receiving Rory McIlroysGreen Approach DNA
26.1% 3G 68.8% 4
74.1% 3 79 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7
76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5
59.1% 3 89 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7
Te e NG4 4 25.9% 4 18
Original Skill of Ben Curtis
Ben Curtis Inherits Rorys F-G Accuracy
Rory's
F-G Accuracy
- 0.03 point
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=kMQ2KYZjU-FybM&tbnid=1Yg9zLPb8sqoVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/aug/14/tiger-woods-padraig-harrington&ei=bdzKUciaE6Pu0gHm3ICYDA&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEnrAYwRKdal-0UTE9dzepKO8e4wg&ust=1372335575030402 -
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Rory Par 5s 2012
Green 116 (34%) 3 Shots 21 (18%)3.95 4 Shots 80 (69%)
5 Shots 15 (13%)
Fairway 51 (15%) Green 46 (90%) 4 Shots 16 (35%)
4.69 4.65 5 Shots 30 (65%)
Fairway 338 (63%) NG 5 (10%) Green 5 5 Shots 5 (100%)
Average: 4.57 5.00 5.00
Non Fairway 171 (51%) Green 109(64%) 4 Shots 64 (59%)
4.95 4.41 5 Shots 45 (41%)
NG 62(36%) Green 32 (52%) 5 Shots 20 (62.5%)
5.90 5.38 6 Shots 12 (37.5%)
NG 26 (42%) Green 26 (100%) 6 Shots 12 (46%)
6.54 6.54 7 Shots 14 (54%)
4 Shots 4 (6%)
Total 537 Tee 537 Green 16 (8%) 3 Shots 0 (100%)
4.64 4.00 4 Shots 16 (100%)
Fairway 102 (51%) Green 83 (81%) 4 Shots 28 (34%)
4.73 4.66 5 Shots 55 (66%)
Non-Fairway 199 (37%) NG 16 (16%) Green 16 (100%) 5 Shots 10 (62.5%)
Average: 4.77 5.38 5.386 Shots 6 (37.5%)
3 Shots 3 (3%)
Non Fairway 81 (40%) Green 54 (67%) 4 Shots 24 (44%)
4.97 4.56 5 Shots 30 (56%)
NG 24 (30%) Green 16 (67%) 5 Shots 10 (62.5%)
5.92 5.38 6 Shots 6 (37.5%)
NG 8 (33%) Green 0 (0%)
7.00 NG 8 (100%) Green 0 (0%)
NG 8 7 Shots 8 (100%)
3 Shots 3 (4%)
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Conclusion
Statistically evaluate players performance in each situation.
Determine which skillset separates one player from another.
Help players improve their performance.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=T8iLMHgv4KhdfM&tbnid=RrM7rGUfSspTyM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.andavotravel.com/blog/2011/06/golf-pebble-beach-visit-san-francisco-and-napa-valley/&ei=vN7KUfOaLImA0AGolIGgAQ&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNGZRYfoNTHxXteUFN9XgZDVv2Ejlw&ust=1372336165576664 -
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