LTE Futures
148
LTE Futures Dinner Talk Next Generation Mobile Networks – NGMN – Partner Forum 14 April 2010 Turin, Italy Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA [email protected] www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com
description
LTE Futures. Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA [email protected]. Dinner Talk Next Generation Mobile Networks – NGMN – Partner Forum 14 April 2010 Turin, Italy. www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com. Abstract. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of LTE Futures
LTE Futures
Dinner TalkNext Generation Mobile Networks – NGMN – Partner Forum
14 April 2010Turin, Italy
Adam DrobotPresident, Advanced Technology Solutionsand CTO TelcordiaPiscataway, NJ 08854, [email protected]
www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 2
Abstract Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from
nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital– These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on
the planet– They account for well over half the business activity of
service providers– Mobile services involve components touching many
technologies, which are on exponential trajectories– We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and
applications– Consumers and users of these services have often surprised
us with what they will spend money on– The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been
profound
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 3
Abstract (cont’d)
We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic– New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP– Extension to direct communication between devices– A driving force in economic growth around the world
affecting all industries, governments, and individuals– Change in people’s life styles– Changes in who the players are for us in the industry– A global shift in where research and development will occur
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 4
Broadband Ecosystem
Physical Network
Network Elements
Management Systems
Service Delivery Systems
Content Creation & Delivery
End-User Equipment
End-to-EndSystem
Service Architecture
University R&DCommercial R&D
Commercial R&D, Venture Capital
Commercial R&D
Commercial R&D, Venture Capital
Commercial R&D, Venture Capital
Commercial R&D, Venture Capital
Deploy Commercial R&D
Commercial R&D
Venture Capital
Venture Capital
Operate Commercial R&D
Commercial R&D
Commercial R&D
•Automated•Robustly•Securely University
R&DCommercial R&D Standards Standards Standards
Interoperate Standards Standards Standards Standards Standards Standards Standards
Maintain & Upgrade
Commercial R&D
• Scalably Commercial R&D
Commercial R&D
• Adaptably
Portion of Broadband Network
Func
tion
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 5
Broadband Supply Chain
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 6
Value Chain – End User Perspective
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 7
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 8
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT – Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 9
Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 10
Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 11
Wireless Adoption Milestones
2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US
2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing!
2009: Half the world uses cell phones
* Information-communication-technology producing industries (ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishing industries (includes software); information and data processing services; and computer systems design and related services. (US BEA)
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 12
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT – Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 13
Wireless-only Households in Canada and the US
Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 14
Demographic Groups Most Likely to be Cellular Only
% C
ellp
hone
-Onl
y, A
pr 2
007
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 15
Percentage of US Households without Landline Telephones
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 16
Projected North American Business Use of Landline and Cell Phones
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 17
Phone Behavior by Age in Single-Person Households
Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56)
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 18
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 19
Global Trends: World View over 14 Years
153 countries, 1995 – 2008 Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population Internet Users per 100 population Broadband Subscribers per 100 population
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 20
Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines
Fixed Telephone Lines
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 21
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2008
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Taiwan
Australia
Iceland
U.S.China
India
Korea
Myanmar
Niger
Qatar
Kuwait
Russia
Switz.
CanadaGermany
Viet Nam
New Zealand
SwedenMalta
Eq. GuineaMalaysiaSouth AfricaIndonesia
BurundiPapua New Guinea
Lux.
Norway
Japan
U.K.
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 22
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 1995
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
1995
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1995
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 23
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 1996
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
1996
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1996
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 24
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 1997
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
1997
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1997
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 25
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 1998
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
1998
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1998
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 26
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 1999
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
1999
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1999
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 27
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2000
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2000
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 28
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2001
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2001
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2001
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 29
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2002
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2002
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2002
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 30
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2003
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2003
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2003
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 31
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2004
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2004
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2004
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 32
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2005
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2005
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 33
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2006
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2006
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2006
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 34
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2007
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2007
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2007
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995• Size shows
population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 35
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2008
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 36
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2008
Fixe
d Li
nes
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Taiwan
Australia
Iceland
U.S.China
India
Korea
Myanmar
Niger
Qatar
Kuwait
Russia
Switz.
CanadaGermany
Viet Nam
New Zealand
SwedenMalta
Eq. GuineaMalaysiaSouth AfricaIndonesia
BurundiPapua New Guinea
Lux.
Norway
Japan
U.K.
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
again
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 37
Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions
Mobile Subscriptions
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 38
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2008
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
TaiwanCanadaU.S.
Lux.
ChinaIndia
KoreaNiger
Papua New Guinea
Qatar
Australia.
Japan
Italy
Russia
Switz.
U.K.
Viet NamIndonesia
Norway
Gambia
Bulgaria
U.A.E
Ukraine
New Zealand
Eq. Guinea
Bahrain
Lithuania
Burundi
Estonia
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 39
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 1995
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1995
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1995
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 40
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 1996
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1996
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1996
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 41
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 1997
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1997
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1997
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 42
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 1998
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1998
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1998
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 43
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 1999
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1999
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1999
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 44
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2000
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2000
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2000
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 45
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2001
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2001
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2001
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 46
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2002
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2002
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2002
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 47
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2003
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2003
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2003
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 48
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2004
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2004
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2004
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 49
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2005
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2005
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2005
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 50
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2006
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2006
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2006
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 51
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2007
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2007
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2007
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 52
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2008
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 53
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2008
Mob
ile S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
TaiwanCanadaU.S.
Lux.
ChinaIndia
KoreaNiger
Papua New Guinea
Qatar
Australia.
Japan
Italy
Russia
Switz.
U.K.
Viet NamIndonesia
Norway
Gambia
Bulgaria
U.A.E
Ukraine
New Zealand
Eq. Guinea
Bahrain
Lithuania
Burundi
Estonia
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
again
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 54
Global Trends – Internet Users
Internet Users
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 55
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2008
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Taiwan Japan
U.S.Lux.
China
India
Korea
NigerPapua New Guinea
Qatar
KuwaitRussia
Switz.
Canada
ItalyViet Nam
Portugal
Iceland
Australia
Indonesia
Norway
Burundi
SwedenHolland
Malaysia
Spain
Eq. Guinea
New Zealand
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 56
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 1995
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
1995
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 1995
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 57
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 1996
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
1996
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 1996
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 58
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 1997
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
1997
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 1997
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 59
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 1998
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
1998
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 1998
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 60
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 1999
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
1999
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 1999
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 61
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2000
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2000
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2000
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 62
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2001
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2001
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2001
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 63
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2002
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2002
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2002
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 64
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2003
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2003
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2003
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 65
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2004
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2004
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2004
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 66
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2005
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2005
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2005
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 67
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2006
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2006
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2006
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 68
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2007
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2007
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2007
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 69
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2008
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 70
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2008
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows populationSize shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Taiwan Japan
U.S.Lux.
China
India
Korea
NigerPapua New Guinea
Qatar
KuwaitRussia
Switz.
Canada
ItalyViet Nam
Portugal
Iceland
Australia
Indonesia
Norway
Burundi
SwedenHolland
Malaysia
Spain
Eq. Guinea
New Zealand
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
again
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 71
Global Trends – Broadband Subscribers
Broadband Subscribers
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 72
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2008
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Korea
Japan
U.S.
Denmark
Lux.
China
India
Taiwan
Niger Myanmar
Qatar
Kuwait
Russia
Switz.Canada
ItalyViet Nam
Spain
Portugal
IcelandU.K.
Chile
Indonesia
Sweden
Norway
Holland
Germany
New Zealand
Australia
Russia
Eq. Guinea
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 73
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 1995
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1995
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1995
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 74
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 1996
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1996
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1996
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 75
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 1997
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1997
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1997
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 76
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 1998
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1998
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1998
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 77
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 1999
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
1999
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1999
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 78
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2000
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2000
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2000
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 79
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2001
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2001
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2001
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 80
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2002
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2002
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2002
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 81
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2003
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2003
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2003
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 82
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2004
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2004
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2004
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 83
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2005
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2005
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2005
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 84
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2006
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2006
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2006
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 85
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2007
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2007
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2007
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 86
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2008
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
• Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 87
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2008
Bro
adba
nd S
ubs
per 1
00 p
op,
2008
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Korea
Japan
U.S.
Denmark
Lux.
China
India
Taiwan
Niger Myanmar
Qatar
Kuwait
Russia
Switz.Canada
ItalyViet Nam
Spain
Portugal
IcelandU.K.
Chile
Indonesia
Sweden
Norway
Holland
Germany
New Zealand
Australia
Russia
Eq. Guinea
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
again
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 88
Global Trends – Over 14 Years
Continuing…
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 89
Global Trends – Mobile Penetration by Region – 2007 & 2008
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 90
Global Trends: Adoption by Developing Nations
Source: Wireless Communications – Q2 2006 Topical
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 91
Global Trends: Wired vs. Wireless Crossover
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 92
ARPU -- Data as % of Total, by Country
Source: Chetan Sharma 2008
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 93
Wireless Data ARPU for Major Operators Worldwide
Source: Chetan Sharma 2008
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 94
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 95
Pre-cellular1982 2010 Animate
US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 96
US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1982 – 20101982 2010 Animate
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 97
US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
20101982 2010 Animate
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 98
Cellular Sites in the US – 1985-2009
Source: CTIA
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 99
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 100
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 101
??Source: IDC
Mobile TransformationsThe 5 Year Cycles
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 102
Source: IDC
Mobile Transformations – Looking Forward
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 103
Cellphone Milestones
Sat- Phone
Treo
StarTACNokia
iPhone
LG
Sharp – first CameraPhone
Nokia
Motorola
1973
1983
1984
19851986
1987
1988
1989 1990 1991 19921993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Prototype
Motorola “brick”
AMPS trialIn Chicago
Sony-Ericsson
First TV ad
In movies iDEN digital
KyoceraSmartPhone
GPRSdigital Bluetooth
BlackBerry
BlackBerry
???
Numberportability
Android
App Store
OpenSource OS
500 billiontext msgs in 2004
1.9 trilliontext msgs in 2007
Wi-Ficellularhybrid
First SmartPhone -- touch screen, pager, calculator, calendar, fax, e-mail
Texting
Vibrates, Flips open
QWERTY kbd
IBM Simon
Wi-Fi-cellularhandoff
250 billion textmsgs in 2001
GPSE-911
Nokia
Patent1975
2002: More mobile substhan wired, worldwide
Color
M I95cl
Games
Mp3player
PolyphonicRingtones
109 Nokia
phones
Concept:1946 1966
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 104
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 105
Digitization – Energy Efficiency
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 106
Shape of the Industry & Underlying Infrastructure: Network Layers
global
national
regional
metro
local
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 107
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 108
Cellular Technology Roadmap
CDMA
GSM
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 109
Technology RoadmapCellular Technology Evolution: 2G, 3G, 4G…
Source: Deutsche Bank (March 2008)
2G 3G 4G
IDEN WIDEN HSDPA HSUPA HSPA+
CDMA9-05A
CDMA9-05B CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DOa 1xEV-DOb
GSM GSM/GPR3
EDGE
TD-SCDMA
LTE, UMB,802.16n
PDCWCDMA 802.16d 802.16e
TDMA 802.20(CFDM)
802.11n& Mesh
Latency: >200ms 100-200ms <100ms <20ms
Data rate: 20 kb/s ~500 kb/s up to 7.2 Mb/s up to 50 Mb/s
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 110
Wireless Technology Roadmap
Source: Docera Public Wiki 2010
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 111
Future Wireless Landscape
Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role
Two largest North American operators (Verizon and AT&T) will migrate towards LTE
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 112
Future Wireless Landscape
Expect significant overlap and coexistence in migration path– LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants
for some time– Multi-mode and backward compatible devices
Expect deployment delays– Industry generally says “2010” timeframe– Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base
stations with greater bandwidth– Patents, Patents, Patents.
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 113
Things to Expect by 2015
Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro areas covered by a 4G technology
Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G technologies
All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile VoIP
More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G capabilities.
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 114
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 115
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 116
Stages of Wireless Evolution Stage I – Whom can I reach, and how quickly? Stage II – When can I reach them?
Time shifting – messaging, email & voicemail
Stage III – How much information can I exchange, and with what circle of recipients? Interoperable applications
Stage IV – Which applications make sense over which networks – LANs, WANs & broadband
Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices into one?
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 117
Stages of Wireless Evolution Stage VI – How can I access data & information?
Initial digitization of information & creationof browser functions
Stage VII – How many applications can I use on my wireless handset?
Stage VIII – How can I use the same applications onmultiple devices? – Home, Office, PC, Smartphone…
Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipatewhat I need?
Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time?
And always… How can I get more for less?
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 118
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 119
What Will 5G & 6G Look Like?
•Mobility•Ubiquity
• Physical Sciences
•Speed•Bandwidth
• Immediacy•Relevance 5G and 6G
Service Networks
3G and 4GNetworks
VoiceFixed
VoiceWireless,News Text
Video On Demand,Movies
Video on the Spot, Alerts
Anticipation
3D
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 120
5G and 6G Services
Immediacy– Voice & Texting– Emergency
Response– News– Financial Info– Gaming– Selected
Entertainment Products
– Streaming Audio / Video
– . . .
Anticipation– Social networking– Location Based
Services– Opportunity Driven
Marketing– Scheduling / Alerts– Advanced Healthcare– Telematics– Financial Services– Diagnostics /
Prognostics– . . .
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 121
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 122
IP Leading to a Fully Packetized Future Information / data / content / media – major
drivers for applications1. First, everything must be indexed for searching
(now underway)
2. Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will be made available on a wireless handset, through over-the-top applications (voice is just one service of many)
3. What’s now available to techies, the rest of the world wants
4. Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the mash ups for the masses
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 123
Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict? Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging
& competing in the same content delivery space Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad-
based vs. subscription-based) Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset
vendors – all jostling for dominance User experience emerges as new battleground Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem
critical for success in converged space Seek to lead, and shape, necessary
eco-system Colliding industries, “creative gales of
destruction”, force players to experiment with new business models
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 124
Traffic Impact of Introducing Packet-based Services
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 125
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 126
Anticipation
Transportation – Telematics Healthcare – Telemedicine Communications – Device-to-Device
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 127
Anticipation: Healthcare
Healthcare – Telemedicine – Emergency response– Public health– Chronic disease management– Wellness– Remote patient-doctor interaction
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 128
Applications: TelemedicineEmergency How to identify the emergency?Response: Gather relevant records?
Line up resources?Get the patients to the right place?Provide immediate intervention?
Car accidents Falls Sports accidents Natural disasters Fire / explosion Medical conditions (heart attack, stroke, …)
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 129
Applications: TelemedicineChronic disease How to determine condition?management: How to detect changes?
How to track patient actions?How to respond?
Patient monitoring Patient compliance Social network and support Diagnosis and case management Intervention
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 130
Anticipation: Transportation
Transportation – Telematics – Safety– Convenience– Infotainment– Mobility– Sustainability
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 131
Applications: TelematicsSafety: How to avoid dangerous conditions?
How to prevent crashes?How to mitigate accidents?
Road condition notification Automatic response (braking for hazards) Side impact collision avoidance Accident notification and response
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 132
Applications: TelematicsMobility: How to get from here to there?
How to do it faster?How to do it greener?
Multimode transportation Traffic routing Navigation Paratransit Emergency evacuation
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 133
Applications: TelematicsSustainability: How to improve efficiency?
How to interact with infrastructure?How to look after vehicles?
Diagnostics and prognostics Load based signaling Road Maintenance (vehicle as sensor) Parking availability Mixed traffic management Incentive based systems
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 134
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 135
5G and 6G World: Integration, Convergence
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 136
5G and 6G World: Market Driven by Applications
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 137
5G and 6G World: Market Driven by Applications
Source: IDC
150,000 apps… And counting!
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 138
Digitization: 5G and 6G Services
Services, Applications– Games– Bill pay– M-Commerce– Social networking– Store / restaurant finder– Turn-by-turn navigation– . . .
Applications -- magnet for customers and revenue!
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 139
Digitization – IP as a Wireless Integration Enabler
Over-the-Top Services App Stores Long-term, it’s all about services!
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 140
Mobile Data Services Market: % Revenues by Segment Forecasts: India 2003-2012
Others include mobile commerce & mobile marketing / advertising
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122005Year
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Revenues
Messaging Entertainment Information Others
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 141
Example: Telematics – Projected Growth in Navigation Devices (millions)
Source: Telematics Research Group 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OEMPortable
4.21.6
10.5
19.8
30.9
43.4
56.8
71
1.3 1.6
1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.8
OEM market share: 45% in 2005… 6% in 2012
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 142
Example: Telematics – Subscriber Base Growth
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 143
Example: Telematics – Wireless Revenue Breakdown
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 144
Operators Still Have (the) Key Assets !
Network, backhaul Spectrum Customer relationships OSS / BSS Transaction-generated information Spatial coordinates, user location Most small developers still want
ties with operators Service provider of last resort Brand and mind share Regulatory backing (after all is said, they
build & operate critical social infrastructure)
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 145
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– ICT– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Anticipation– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 146
Discussion
It’s an Exciting World!
– Moving at an exponential pace– Wireless is the future
“You ain’t seen nothing yet!”
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 147
Thank you!
Adam Drobot – NGMN Partner Forum – Turin, Italy – 14 April 2010 – 148
Ciao!
