LTE & 4G: end of mobile telephony? Mobile Broadband ...€¦ · The next step in the evolution of...

Insead Telecoms Club17 June 2010, Paris

LTE & 4G: end of mobile telephony? Mobile Broadband Ecosystem: the

Global Market Opportunity & Challenges -

Jean-Pierre BienaiméChairman, UMTS Forum


Summary

(1)3G/3G+ Mobile Broadband worldwide deployments

(2) Mobile broadband evolution towards LTE

(3) Shaping LTE mobile broadband ecosystem


UMTS Forum 2010 Work programKey focus areas

Spectrum & Regulation Global Broadband/LTE Ecosystem

Advice to industry and administrations on 3G/LTE licensing & regulation

Study of LTE in conjunction with the Digital Home and Consumer Electronics

Global spectrum and spectrum arrangements for UMTS/IMT-2000

and IMT-Advanced

Roadmap and competitive benefits for HSPA, LTE and beyond

Key Growth Markets

Studies and workshops on mobile broadband and technical choices

Promotion of the use of mobile service allocations and Digital Dividend

Main activitiesStudies, Reports and White papers

Communication and Promotion

Visibility and participation at conferences, exhibitions, seminars and workshops

Relationships with regulators, administrations, international media and financial community

Contributions to international organizations (ITU, EC, CEPT/ECC, 3GPP)

Partnerships with international bodies (ETSI, NGMN, GSMA, ICU, COAI, APT, 3GAs…)


3G/UMTS mobile broadband: a global mass market

• More than 700m 3G subscribers (UMTS + EVDO) worldwide

…in which over 550m UMTS/WCDMA subs, inc. around 250m HSPA subs

• Over 3.5 times as many UMTS/WCDMA subscribers as CDMA2000 EV-DO

• Over 340 WCDMA networks (inc. 160 in Europe) in 135+ countries...

...in which over 320 HSDPA networks, 170 HSUPA networks,

and over 40 HSPA+ networks launched

• Around 15 UMTS 900 networks launched

• And over 1500 3G/UMTS/HSPA devices


Mobile broadband network deployments

Source: Sofrecom


Mobile broadband subscriber base and market share

Source: Informa


The challenges of the Wireless Industry

• Support the fast increase of the data traffic

• Provide uniform QoE to end users

• While allowing operators to remain profitable

3GPP and the industry are working on technical solutions to these challenges


What is Long Term Evolution (LTE)?What is Long Term Evolution (LTE)?

8

The next step in the evolution of 3GPP radio interfaces to deliver “Global Mobile Broadband”: Mobile broadband is an evolutionary process to optimise current assets, before moving towards new systems, network radio interfaces and spectrum

LTE protects operator investments in GSM/WCDMA/HSPA systems, allowing smooth migration according to market requirements while retaining the benefits of 3GPP family technologies (security, worldwide coverage, roaming, etc)“LTE is a cost-effective solution, as smooth evolution from legacy system, offering close inter- working with legacy systems & high inter-working performance, re-use of current roaming agreements, and smooth upgrade from current CN products.LTE has the potential to become the next GSM”

Bill Huang, CTO, China Mobile (Nov.2008)Standardization based on improved use of the radio spectrum andon simplified system design

Source: 3GPP & UMTS Forum


Radio Evolution – Data rates

GSMEDGE

WCDMATD-SCDMA

HSPA

LTE FDD and TDD

1 Mbps 1 – 40 Mbps 40 – 300 Mbps

3GPP

3GPP2CDMA1X EV-DO

IEEEWiMAX802.16e

Source: Ericsson

LTE – Mainstream global choice for next generation

http://www.umts-forum.org/


OFDM Radio Technologylarger peak & average ratesMulti-antennas transmissionpowerful MIMO algorythms

Spectrum flexibilityvariable channel bandwidth

Simplicity: Self-Organizing Networks & All-IP RANultra-low latency

SC-FDMA (UL)

OFDM (DL)

TX TX

IP transport

20 MHz1.4 MHz

TDDFDD

LTE main features


100 MHz BW

8x MIMO

20+20 MHz

64 QAM UL

MU-MIMO (DL)

4xMIMO

MU-MIMO (UL)

OFDM

64/16 QAM DL/UL

2x MIMO

LTE & LTE-Advanced

20+20 MHz BW

64 QAM UL

MU-MIMO (DL)

4xMIMO

MU-MIMO (UL)

OFDM

64/16 QAM DL/UL

2x MIMO

4x MIMO

MU-MIMO (UL)

OFDM

64/16 QAM DL/UL

2x MIMO

OFDM

64/16 QAM DL/UL

2x MIMO

300 Mbps75 Mbps

150 Mbps50 Mbps

600 Mbps150 Mbps

1000 Mbps500 Mbps

Terminal capabilities peak rates

LTE Advanced Release 10 and beyond


Commitments to LTE More than 60 Operators in over 20 countries

Vodafone

… and more to come

Source: Press releases and GSA (15 April, 2009)


LTE deployment roadmap


• LTE will be characterised by a complex, healthy ecosystem developed by a collaborative industry• LTE will see the emergence of dynamic new business models not hitherto experienced in the mobile space

The scope of the ecosystem

The ecosystem will support new vertical and horizontal markets

Business and general consumer markets

Enterprise VPN

Internet-based applications

Home / consumer electronics

Vertical-specific applications

Transport and logistics

Machine to machine apps

Rich voice, VoIP. cct switch support

Gaming

Broadcast mobile TV

Media access and internet TV

Improved mobile broadband

Complements existing services

Chipset manufacturers

User device vendors

Infrastructure suppliers

App’ns software developers

Test equipment manufacturers

Service / content providers

Foundation group

Operators

Momentum group

Standards bodies

Regulator

Industry bodies

Enabler group


• Non-voice mobile services will be increasingly important:• Evolution from ‘traditional’ mobile network ecosystem to incorporate internet applications, new services, devices and content delivery mechanisms• Wider and deeper ecosystem than for any previous mobile technology

• Complexity and size brings challenge for LTE: relationships and dependencies which have to work effectively for the full opportunities for LTE to be realised

The breadth and depth of the ecosystem

The ecosystem for each mobile generation has increased in breadth and scope

LTE LTE3G 3G2G

LTE LTE3G 3G2G

LTE LTE3G 3G2G

LTE LTE3G 3G2G

LTE LTE3G 3G2G

Chipsets, client software, OS, user interfaces, displays, batteries

Devices evolution: handsets => smartphones => laptops, netbooks and application-specific devices

Applications and services

New end user communities; new industry verticals and M2M

Widening systems capability: network, IT, back-office

Major components of the Ecosystem:

A greatly increased community of consumers, industry and vertical sector users


LTE: enabled services

Many existing services will be enhanced by LTE; plus new service opportunities

• Mobile data applications will drive LTE • Voice will remain the leading revenue generator for some time – but solutions for the handling voice

services over LTE are under consideration and in trial and will depend on operators’ strategies to retain and protect current voice revenues

• Location based services will raise the possibility of new business models that can alleviate the ARPU decline.

• Machine to machine traffic is not foreseen to be a driver for LTE launch, but is perceived as a long-term strategic market opportunity for LTE.

• Video services will enjoy the greatest benefits from LTE, but faces competition from Wi-Fi access, which in turn will also influence the operator strategy for in- building and hot-spot femtocell deployment.

• Real time/ interactive services: Network storage will become a commodity; social networking and mobile gaming will become more popular.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

TV device 63% 58% 33% 32% 27% 17% 10%

PC 47% 43% 27% 28% 32% 19% 18%

PMP 17% 16% 11% 10% 20% 6% 9%

Mobile phone 9% 13% 11% 7% 15% 5% 9%

Hollywoodfilm

TVprogramme

Sport Homemovie

Musicvideo

Adult Short clips

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

TV device 63% 58% 33% 32% 27% 17% 10%

PC 47% 43% 27% 28% 32% 19% 18%

PMP 17% 16% 11% 10% 20% 6% 9%

Mobile phone 9% 13% 11% 7% 15% 5% 9%

Hollywoodfilm

TVprogramme

Sport Homemovie

Musicvideo

Adult Short clips

Video Content and devices preferences Source: Ovum


End user survey: no killer app• National market needs (as well as more narrow segments) will need to be understood by device vendors, application developer and service providers – there is not a homogeneous world market

• With an improved mobile broadband experience, end users expect to:– to do more of the same– use mobile bb as they do their fixed

service– take advantage of the provision of

their SP’s applications an services

• Mobile TV, video-calls and video downloading are the top 3 services with the highest growth – all bandwidth demanding will increase

Source: Ovum

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Online betting / gambling

Mobile blogging

Video call

Mobile TV

Online gaming

Video downloading

Business use (e.g. VPN)

Video streaming

Music downloading

Music streaming

Online shopping

Social networking

General online browsing

Information searching

Email

Current preferred level Expected future increase Relative preference l2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Online betting / gambling

Mobile blogging

Video call

Mobile TV

Online gaming

Video downloading

Business use (e.g. VPN)

Video streaming

Music downloading

Music streaming

Online shopping

Social networking

General online browsing

Information searching

Email

Current preferred level Expected future increase Relative preference l


• Strong latent need for mobile broadband will stimulate interest at all levels of the value chain encouraging to rapid ecosystem development

• Could lead to in-building coverage, e.g. with LTE femtocells; metro femtocells; UMA devices

• Of current and active 3G users:• 28% currently use mobile broadband exclusively as their

consumer broadband service • … this will rise to 43% within 1 year after LTE introduction • … and to 51% within 3 years after LTE introduction

• Other users will use both fixed and mobile broadband services

Speed of end user transition

Adoption of higher speed broadband is seen as a compelling option


LTE ecosystem roadmap• Chipsets: Initial focus on dual mode LTE/HSPA+ or LTE/EVDO; data-only; 2x2 MIMO; FDD (2008); TDD (2009); standard-compliant in 2010• Devices: Initial focus on data-only (USB, datacard); embedded (laptops, notebooks, PDAs…) (2010); handhelds (2011-12); consumer electronics (later)• Infrastructure: Demos (2008), Trials (2009), Commercial (2010…)


Drivers for LTE• Mobile data usage growth - iPhone and similar • Network efficiency: spectral efficiency and cost per bit• Improved user experience: lower latency and higher

throughputs• Operator support. Lots of operators have made

commitments since 2008 • Multi-access Evolved Packet Core (EPC)• Vendor community support • Clear standards roadmap through 3GPP Rel 8, Rel 9 &

future Rel 10 • Regulation and availability of new spectrum• Industry alignment and strong momentum - NGMN and

LSTI• Business model evolution and new revenue sources• New services and web-based applications – greater

video orientation.

Compelling support for

LTE


• Economic downturn and uncertainty of investment $s will impact the ecosystem speed and depth

• Investment cost vs sustaining legacy technology influence operator LTE rollout plans

• Network transition plans vary, impacting volume production economies

• End-user device availability. Initial device focus will be USB dongles, mass market devices will come later

• IPR effects on dual and multi-mode devices• Early chipset / device compatibilities issues (pre-

standard equipment)• Some interoperability of standards issues• Regulation uncertainties: roaming difficulties if spectrum

is not aligned among different regions• Security and privacy in IP networks.• New disruptive technologies ?...

Challenges need attention, but are being addressed: no

insurmountable LTE barriers

Barriers and risks for LTE


Rationale for a quick deployment of an LTE network

The reasons for a quick deployment of an LTE networkare multiple, and vary depending on the company:

Reduce the data cost structure for operators alreadyfacing an explosion in mobile data traffic, especiallyowing to flat-rate or unlimited packages (this is the casefor Telia in Sweden, in particular); Opt for a completely new network when the age andcapacity of the core mobile networks would make expensiveupgrades necessary; Differentiation from the competition on very activemarkets, rather like Verizon (USA), a CDMA EV-DOoperator which needed to respond to competition from3G+/UMTS (HSPA and HSPA+) Source: Orange Market Intelligence


LTE: spectrum choices for the operators

LTE can be deployed in any of a wide variety of different spectrum bands. While GSM has typically been deployed at 900/1800/1900MHz, LTE can be rolled out across any of 21 different bands. However, 700MHz, 800MHz, 900MHz and 2.6GHz are likely to be the most common LTE bands. Here are the four choices given to operators:

Roll-out using the digital dividend (700MHz in the U.S., 800 MHz in W. Europe);

Deployment via new bands (2.6GHz IMT extension band);

Use of re-farmed spectrum (850MHz/900MHz/1800MHz/1900MHz/2100 MHz etc); and/or

New LTE spectrum bands could also emerge at 3.6GHz .In Europe and Asia, 2.6GHz has emerged as one of the key preferred LTE spectrum bands, while Verizon in the U.S. selected 700 MHz spectrum.

Source: Orange


First TeliaSonera LTE Launch

Stockholm LTE offering:- 60€ per month for 30Go, up to 100Mbps- average throughput 30Mbps- same price as the best Telia fiber offer (unlimited 100Mbps)- 1.9x price of best 3G+ Telia offer (Fri+), but 10x speed…


For more information www.umts-forum.org

LTE & 4G: end of mobile telephony? Mobile Broadband ...€¦ · The next step in the evolution of...

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