Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper

Peter G Taylor

Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and

climate change scenarios”. 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen

Overview of presentation

• The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution report on “Energy - the changing climate”

• The UK Energy White Paper

• Modelling approach to scenario work

• Results and conclusions

Royal Commission Report - topics covered

• Scenarios for future energy demand & supply;

• Environmental implications of such scenarios;

• Scope for reducing demand;

• Potential contributions to energy supplies;

• Assessment of alternative energy technologies;

• Role of government & markets;

• Effectiveness of present institutions in framing & delivering energy policies.

Royal Commission Report - conclusions on CO2 objectives

• Further action required from both developed & developing nations

• Global climate agreement based on contraction & convergence, with emissions trading .

• An upper limit on CO2 concentrations of 550 ppmv, with convergence by 2050.

• UK CO2 emissions should reduce by about 60% by 2050 and by 80% by 2100.

UK Energy White Paper

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Goals of new UK energy policy

• to put the UK on a path to cut the UK’s CO2 emissions by 60% by about 2050, with real progress by 2020

• to maintain the reliability of energy supplies

• to promote competitive markets in the UK and beyond

• to ensure that every home is adequately and affordably heated.

Aims of low carbon scenario work

• to develop bottom-up baseline carbon dioxide emissions projections to 2050

• to identify potential technical options for carbon dioxide abatement

• to investigate the cost of reducing carbon emissions

Modelling approach

• Bottom-up technology model

• Size and timing of changes

• Spread of action between supply and demand

• Apply emissions constraints

• Estimate system costs

• Sensitivity analyses

Overview of modelOverview of model

Menu of energy technologies

production

conversion

transmission

utilisation

Optimal least cost mix oftechnologies

Useful energydemand

Primaryfuel prices

Emissionsconstraints

Scenarios

• Baseline

• World Markets

• Global Sustainability

Exploring a range of possible futures covering both economic and social change

Many sensitivities also examined

Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation - Baseline scenario

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Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation - 60% CO2 reduction in 2050 (limited energy efficiency)

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Energy Use in Transport - 60% CO2 reduction in 2050

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Electricity

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Annual cost of reducing emissions by 60 % in 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050Baseline 0 1 5 10Limited EE 0.1 8 17 38Limited Innovation 0.1 6 19 42

£bn/yr

Sensitivities to look at costs under different assumptions

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Main conclusions

• Diversity of technology options for reducing CO2 emissions

• Energy efficiency is central, but not sufficient, to achieve 60 % CO2 reduction

• Abatement costs are highly uncertain, but effects on growth are likely to be relatively small

• Innovation & technical progress are essential

• Key technology groups: end-use energy efficiency, renewable energy, carbon capture & storage, hydrogen & nuclear power