Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of ...
Transcript of Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of ...
Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 3rd Annual Meeting Draft Programme of Work
Bogor, 24–26 November 2014
Centre for Research on Energy PolicyINSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of Research Community
Retno G Dewi — Iwan Hendrawan — Bintang Yuwono — Rias Parinderati
1. Introduction
2. Current Energy Situation in Indonesia
3. Energy and GHG Emission Model Using End-Use
4. Socio Economic Condition and Projection
5. Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and
GHG Emission Reduction
OUTLINE
2pg.
3pg.
INTRODUCTION
LCD is long term vision (2050) of economic development in a low-carbon way
Challenge for achieving LCD is now in a global mainstream. Particular emphasis in short-term (2020) is to address options for achieving GHG reduction target (National Action Plan) up to 26% below the baseline using domestic budget and further up to 41% if there is international support.
Activities in achieving this reduction target are supported by PerPres 61/2011 (National Action Plan for GHGs Mitigation Action) and PerPres 71/2011 (GHGs Inventory).
Key Findings:Energy sector is 2nd contributor of national GHGs after AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and land use). CO2 from energy sector increased, from 369,800 ton (2005) to 392,820 ton (2010). This high CO2 is generated from high share of fossil fuels in primary energy supply mix, in which share of renewable energy is still low, RE (6.1%), oil (44.34%), gas 43.30 %, coal 24.43%.
In this paper, LCD strategy is not to achieve world’s target on carbon intensity level; it is more to explore possibilities of the future development in a low-carbon way.
The paper presents ‘Low Carbon Development Paths of Energy Sector in Indonesia’ that is used for identifying development paths of energy sector and cost of development, GHG reduction potential if the development paths Toward to Low Carbon and costs of actions for reducing GHG in 2020 and 2050.
Significant increased in energy demand over transportation and industrial sector.
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CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION
24
48
72
96
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
IndustryHouseholdCommercialTransportationACM & others
ToESECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND (“90-“12)
Implicating to increase in demand on energy, noticing that GoI is planning to transform their energy mix in increasing energy security and achieving climate targets.
source: Pusdatin—ESDM
180
360
540
720
900
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CoalFuelGasElectricityLPGIndustrial biomass
ToEFINAL ENERGY DEMAND (“90-“12)
source: Pusdatin—ESDM
In response to climate change issues, GoI in 2010 announced “non binding commitment” to reduce GHG emissions 26% below the baseline by 2020 with domestic budget and further up to 41% with international support.
5pg.
GHG PROJECTION
To achieve the target, the government developed mitigation actions plan that is published as National GHG Mitigation Action Plan (RAN GRK).
Emission level
target
GH
G E
mis
sion
s le
vel
BaU (Baseline)
2005 2020 2050
Reduction target ‘non-binding’ commitment (26% or 41%) in 2020
GHG PROJECTION
In-line with Low Carbon
Development Paths
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END-USE MODELLING
Non-linear programming (GAMs based Extended Snap Shot) is used as a tool for developing energy development paths and estimating associated GHGs.
BaU Mitigation (CM1&2)
envisions development paths of energy sector and the associated GHG emission without considering mitigation efforts
development paths to achieve low carbon through: • efficiency & conservation; • advance technologies; • renewables; • CCS
Base year for projection scenarios is 2005 and target year is 2020 and 2050
Two projection scenarios are developed:
Energy demand projection is gathered from ExSS results. Analysis of socio-economic data (driving forces) projects the final energy demand.
7pg.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTION
(Driving Forces) Input Parameters to ExSS Modelling.
100
200
300
400
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
0-1415-64> 64
Millions
POPULATION INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
5
10
15
0.5
1
1.5
2
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
Population GDP
POPULATION GROWTH
GDP GROWTH
source: BPS
3.53 6.67 9.10 14.11 16.92 38.99
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
AgricultureMining & QuarryngFood & BeverageTextileChemical IndustryConstructionOther IndustryIron & SteelCementTertiary Industries
Trillions IDR
8
LCS Actions
Clean Energy (Residential and Commercial)
Low Carbon Style(Residential and Commercial)
Low Carbon Electricity
Low carbon energy system in industry
Sustainable transport
Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology
Efficient energy technology appliances
Society Behavior in Residential /Commercial
Renewable energy & Less CO2 Emission Energy
Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology (Coal IGCC + CCS)
Efficient energy process and processing technology
Efficient energy technology of power generation
Increasing Efficiency of T & D
Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy
Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy
Efficient energy technology appliances
Reduce trip generation and distance (improve Infrastructure, telecommunication, new urban design, traffic management
Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy
modal shift (public/mass rapid transport utilization)
Energy Efficiency Improvement
pg.
LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
This model assess the impacts of different measures in LCS Actions.
LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHS
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GHG REDUCTION — LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHS
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!6.7!!
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0!
2!
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
2005! 2020! 2050! 2005! 2020! 2050! 2005! BaU! CM1! CM2! BaU! CM1! CM2! 2005! BaU! CM1! CM2! BaU! CM1! CM2!
2020! 2050! 2020! 2050!
Popula7on! GDP! Energy!Demand! CO2!Emission!
Counter Measure (CM) scenario: Introduction of low-carbon measures which are already available. Assumptions are based on the official target (RAN-GRK, reduce 38 MtCO2 in energy sector).
Baseline scenario: Projection of GHG emission under expected socio-economic development in Indonesia without additional countermeasures to reduce GHG from energy.
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ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION
ToE
SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION
180,000
360,000
540,000
720,000
900,000
2005 2050 BaU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
CoalOilGasBiomassaElectricityBiofuel
ToE
FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION
180,000
360,000
540,000
720,000
900,000
2005 2050 BaU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Passanger TransportFreight TransportResidentialCommercialIndustry
In CM2 there are nuclear and Coal-CCS being introduced.
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CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION
Significant decrease of power sector GHG Emission are mainly contributed by Nuclear (16%) and Coal CCS (42%).
800
1,600
2,400
3,200
4,000
2005 2050 BaU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Final demand sectorsPower supplyOther energy indusriesOther Sectors
ToEGHG EMISSION
ToEENERGY DEMAND MIX
240,000
480,000
720,000
960,000
1,200,000
2005 2050 BaU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Coal Oil GasHydropower Solar & Wind BiomassaGeothermal Biofuel Nuclear
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
MtCO2eq
120
240
360
480
600
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
BaUCM
GHG EMISSIONS
2015 20502005 2020 2030
ENERGY SUPPLY
20
40
60
80
100
BaU
Biogas Electricity Natural Gas Oil (Kerosene)
BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM
CM: Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the energy consumption of residential sector. In CM there are introduction of advanced technologies in home appliances and fixtures enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption. Biogas is introduced in CM as well as also shift in technologies, into technologies that use electricity as energy source (e.g. electric stove, electric heater, etc.).
Business as Usual scenario: setting in shift of energy supply type, from oil (kerosene) to gas by 2020.
RESINDENTIAL
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
RESINDENTIAL
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
2020 20502005
BaU CM BaU CM
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
BaU
Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment
Millions USD
MITIGATION COSTS
2015
BaU CM
2025
BaU CM
2030
BaU CM
DEVICESMToE
2020 20502005 2015 2025 2030
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BaU
GB_B GB_G RC_EL_BAT RC_EL_EXT RF_EL_BATRF_EL_EXT RH_EL_BAT RH_EL_EXT RH_FC_EL RH_FC_NGRH_FC_OK RH_NG_EXT RH_OK_EXT RK_EL_BAT RK_EL_EXTRK_FC_EL RK_FC_NG RK_FC_OK RK_NG_EXT RK_OK_EXTRL_EL_FLC RL_EL_INC RL_EL_LED RO_EL_BAT RO_EL_EXT
BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM BaU CM
RESINDENTIAL
20202005 2015
MToESERVICE OUTPUT
12
24
36
48
60
BaU
CookingCoolingHot WaterLightingOtherRefrigerant
BaU CM BaU CM1 BaU CM
2020
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POWER SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
MtCO2eq
360
720
1,080
1,440
1,800
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
BaUCM1CM2
GHG EMISSIONS
2015 20502005 2020 2030
ENERGY SUPPLY
140
280
420
560
700
BaU
Coal Gas Oil Biomass Solar Hydro Geothermal Biofuel
BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2
CM 1 follows the RAN-GRK plan in increasing the utilization of new and renewables technologies and energies (Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass), in this scenario there are a decrease in electricity demand due to lower activities in other sectors due to efficiency and conservation programs activated. There are changes in share of Coal, Oil, and Gas in the energy mix.
CM 2 extend the use of Hydro power generation, Biomass, and especially the introduction of Biofuel in power sector. With a specified share of Coal in the energy mix (66%), the rest of energy share are competed, as well as the technology selection.
Business as Usual Scenario follows the planned energy mix and technologies share allocation for power sector in “Rencana Umum Pengembangan Tenaga Listrik” (RUPTL 2012-2020).
POWER
16pg.
POWER SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
POWER
17pg.
POWER SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
2020 20502005
BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2
37,500
75,000
112,500
150,000
BaU
Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment
Millions USD
MITIGATION COSTS
2015
BaU CM1 CM2
2030
BaU CM1 CM2
GWh
440,000
880,000
1,320,000
1,760,000
2,200,000
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
BaUCM1CM2
SERVICE OUTPUT
2020 20502005 2015 2025 2030
DEVICES
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BaU
COL_ST_EXT COL_SC GAS_ST_EXT GAS_GT_EXT GAS_CC_EXTGAS_GE_EXT GAS_CC_NEW GAS_CC_NEWx BMS_ST_EXT SOL_EXTRHY_EXT RGE_EXT OIL_ST_EXT OIL_GT_EXT OIL_CC_EXTOIL_DE_EXT GAS_CC_NEWx RK_FC_OK RK_NG_EXT RK_OK_EXTRL_EL_FLC RL_EL_INC RL_EL_LED RO_EL_BAT RO_EL_EXT
BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2
MToE
POWER
18pg.
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
MtCO2eq
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
Cement (BaU)Cement (CM)Iron & Steel (BaU)Iron & Steel (CM)Cement IPPU (BaU)Cement IPPU (CM)
GHG EMISSIONS
EMS
IPPU
5
10
15
20
25
BaU
Coal Electricity Alt. Raw Material Biomass Natural Gas
BaU CM BaU CM
2020 20502005
CEMENTMToE
IRON & STEELMToE
2020 20502005
ENERGY SUPPLY
1
2
3
4
5
BaU BaU CM BaU CM
CM1 scenario of cement industry, there are extensive use of alternative fuel and material (AFR), such as Biomass for clinker substitute material and Biomass for fuel combustion process (waste, husk, hazardous waste, etc.). The reuse of waste and use of renewables as fuel and materials reduces the GHG emissions. CM1 scenario in iron & steel industry introduces the competition of advanced technologies in the production process. Advanced technologies have significant impact to higher efficiency in energy use and further reduce GHG emissions, noticing that Iron & Steel industry is a energy intensive industry.
Business as Usual scenario: In cement industry there are limited introduction of alternative material in the production process.
There is development plan of production capacity of iron & steel industry that by 2020 blast furnace process for the first time will be running under several companies.
INDUSTRY
19pg.
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
CEMENT INDUSTRY IRON & STEEL
INDUSTRY
20pg.
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
MTon (Cement)
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
36
72
108
144
180
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
CementSteel
MTon (Steel)
SERVICE OUTPUT
2020 205020052020 20502005
BaU CM BaU CM
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
BaU
Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment
Millions USD
BaU CM BaU CM
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
BaU
Millions USD
MITIGATION COSTS
CEMENT IRON & STEEL
Millions USD
2020 20502005
CEMENT
BaU CM BaU CM
6
12
18
24
30
BaU
Grinder_exisitngClinker_existingFinishing_existing
IRON & STEEL
2020 20502005
Millions USD
BaU CM BaU CM
10
20
30
40
50
BaU
Blast Furnace_exisitingCoke Oven_existingDirect Reduction_exsitingElectric Furnace_existingBasic Oxygen Furnace_existingRolling_existingRotary Kiln_existingSinter_existing
INDUSTRY
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TRANSPORTATION SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
MtCO2eq
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
BaUCM2CM1
GHG EMISSIONS
2015 20502005 2020 2030
ENERGY SUPPLY
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
BaU
Oil Gas Electricity Biofuel
BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU
CM1: Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the service demand of transportation in passenger km as well as tonnage-freight km. In CM1 there are introduction of advanced technologies in transportation that enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption. Train in passenger transport has a significance increase in the mode share.
CM2 takes the efficiency and conservation further and substantially more effective in reducing emissions and energy consumption. Biofuel is introduced in CM2 scenario.
Business as Usual scenario projects the growth of output service with no change in share of transportation modes (data: National Statistics, Directorate General of Transportation).
TRANSPORTATION
22pg.
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
TRANSPORT
23pg.
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR — LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM
Tonnage Km
750,000
1,500,000
2,250,000
3,000,000
600,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
2,400,000
3,000,000
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
F_BaUF_CMP_BaUP_CM
Passenger KmSERVICE OUTPUT
20152005
Millions USD
MITIGATION COSTS
140,000
280,000
420,000
560,000
700,000
BaU
Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment
BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2
2020 2030 2050
Passenger Km
2020 20502005
PASSENGER
BaU CM BaU
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
BaU
Car Bus Train MotorcycleShip Airplane Walk Bike
FREIGHT
2020 20502005
Tonnage Km
BaU CM1 BaU
600,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
2,400,000
3,000,000
BaU
Truck TrainShip Airplane
TRANSPORTATION
24pg.
CONCLUSION
Relationship Science & Policy: Independence and Neutrality of Scientists: • For science-base policy making to be realised, the scientific community has responsibility make knowledge more
accessible and policy-relevant for decision-makers to affect societal change (LCS・RNet 2010).
• In one side, it requires higher research education to be independent from government. In the other side, government also respect the independence and neutrality of scientists and each ministry has process to incorporate scientific knowledge and view in to policy by holding scientific advisor.
Role of economist, social science, and engineering science in low carbon policy: • Despite its relatively short history of economics and social sciences which contributed to climate change
compare to natural science, their role is essential in identifying a feasible transition to a low carbon society by analyzing human behaviour with higher degree of uncertainty.
• At the initial stage, economists have played a crucial role in deciding the realistic and agreeable level of commitment to achieve the target. At the time of introducing renewable obligation target in energy (electricity) supply, economists play an important role in providing cost and benefit analysis on subsidy given for technologies for energy-intensive sectors such as steel which requires special treatment.
• Due to recent movement for evidence-based policy, which requires more economic and scientific robustness, role of engineers and social scientists are increasingly important. Social science has not been focused that much, but it will have a greater role in changing people’s behaviour with high level of uncertainty.
• High independence of researcher/academia from the government through the statute and principle, evidence-based policy, the regular communication and consultation among the related stakeholders and more preference for policy impact are worth to been considered for other countries as well.
Role of engineering science in energy and low carbon technology development: • Introducing and deployment of renewable and less emission energy technology
Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 3rd Annual Meeting Draft Programme of Work
Bogor, 24–26 November 2014
Centre for Research on Energy PolicyINSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of Research Community
Retno G Dewi — Iwan Hendrawan — Bintang Yuwono — Rias Parinderati