Louisiana - Pacific Corporation Goldman Sachs Basic ...

27
Louisiana - Pacific Corporation Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference May 17, 2007

Transcript of Louisiana - Pacific Corporation Goldman Sachs Basic ...

Page 1: Louisiana - Pacific Corporation Goldman Sachs Basic ...

Louisiana - Pacific Corporation

Goldman Sachs Basic Materials ConferenceMay 17, 2007

Page 2: Louisiana - Pacific Corporation Goldman Sachs Basic ...

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Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains statements concerning Louisiana-Pacific

Corporation’s (LP) future results and performance that are forward-

looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation

Reform Act of 1995. The accuracy of such statements is subject to a

number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual

results to differ materially from those projected, including, but not limited

to, the effect of general economic conditions, including the level of

interest rates and housing starts, market demand for the company’s

products, and prices for structural products; the effect of forestry, land

use, environmental and other governmental regulations; the ability to

obtain regulatory approvals, and the risk of losses from fires, floods and

other natural disasters. These and other factors that could cause or

contribute to actual results differing materially from such forward-looking

statements are discussed in greater detail in the company’s Securities

and Exchange Commission filings.

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Market Outlook – Demand

• New construction housing demand:

– Residential housing activity began slowing last Spring: unsold

home inventory high but appears to be leveling, new order rates

down, pricing pressure in many markets, sub-prime market may

extend slowdown, land liquidation occurring

– Positive long term trends and demographics including:

household formations, immigration, affordable interest rates

– Sustainable at 1.85 – 1.95 million starts per year (2005-2015)Source: The State of the Nation’s Housing – 2004, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University

• Repair / remodel demand continues to grow:

– More and older houses in the existing stock

– Rise of “big box retailers” and availability of “installed sales” is

making access easier

• Commercial and light industrial picked up in 2005/2006 and

is showing continued strength

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Builder New Order TrendsYear over Year % Change

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107

D. R. Horton Pulte Homes Lennar Corp.

Centex Corp. KB Home Beazer Homes

The Ryland Group NVR Hovnanian Enterprises

M.D.C. Holdings Standard Pacific Technical Olympic

Meritage Corp. Toll Brothers

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Home Inventory Trend

Analysis:

• Existing home sales have bottomed out

• New home sales continue to bounce along the bottom and inventory exceeds

the current deman

Existing Homesseasonally adjusted

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Ja

n-0

5

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Oct

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7

8

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# of homes sold

Ch vs YA

Mos. Supply of

homes on market

New Homesseasonally adjusted

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Ja

n-0

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2

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4

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6

7

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# of homes sold

Ch vs YA

Mos. Supply of

homes on

market

Source: US Census Bureau

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

New

Hou

sin

g S

tart

s (m

m) 2001 - 2006

Average

Home Building Demand – History Housing Starts (single and multi-family)

Sources: US Department of Commerce; RISI February 2007 5 year forecast; and the State of

the Nation’s Housing – 2004, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCH)

Rolling 5 year

Average

JCH

DemandActual

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Home Building Demand – ForecastsHousing Starts (single and multi-family)

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA RISI Wachovia Merrill Lynch

NAHB Morgan Stanley NAR S&P APA

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R&R Spending ($B) Annualized, Seasonally Adjusted

177

199

215

228

224

231

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

235

245

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

History Average Projection

Market Outlook – R & R

Analysis:

• R&R spending is projected to dip slightly this year, then continues its upward

trend in 2008

Sources: US Census Bureau, RISI, NAHB, JCHS

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LP Channel Strategy: Preference for LP Products

DistributorsDistributors Pro DealersPro Dealers Builders/

Contractors

Builders/

Contractors

Big Box

Retailers

Big Box

RetailersContractors,

DIY-er’s

Contractors,

DIY-er’sR&R

New

5. More value innovations to create builder preference

5. More value innovations to create builder preference

4. “One LP” to the customer

4. “One LP” to the customer

3. Help Big Box sell more LP

3. Help Big Box sell more LP

2. Select channel partners that will push LP (for smaller builders/contractors)

2. Select channel partners that will push LP (for smaller builders/contractors)

1. Get the larger builders to want our products

1. Get the larger builders to want our products

5 Strategic Goals

LP Reload Centers

Other Reload Centers

Marketing & Selling

Marketing & Selling

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LP’s Business Segments

Other Building Products

Other Building Other Building ProductsProducts

�� Composite Decking Composite Decking

�� MouldingMoulding

�� Chile OSB Chile OSB ……

InternationalInternational

�� U.S. GreenfiberU.S. Greenfiber

SidingSidingSiding

�� SmartSide OSB SmartSide OSB

SidingSiding

�� Exterior Hardboard Exterior Hardboard

SidingSiding

�� Exterior Trim, Exterior Trim, SoffitSoffit, ,

FasciaFascia

OSBOSBOSB

�� Commodity Commodity

PanelsPanels

�� TechShieldTechShield

�� FlooringFlooring

�� Web Stock, Web Stock,

RimboardRimboard

Engineered Wood Engineered Wood ProductsProducts

�� LVLLVL

�� I I –– JoistJoist

�� Emerging Emerging ……

Oriented Oriented

Strand Lumber Strand Lumber

(OSL)(OSL)

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Map of LP Facilities

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Oriented Strand Board (OSB)

Mill capacities:

13 mills – 5.7 bsf

Peace Valley JV – 800 mmsf

Alabama under construction – 700 mmsf

• #1 North American OSB producer with about 24% market share …about 15% share of structural panels

• Broad commodity and value-added

product line

• Best geographic coverage allows for

a low delivered cost

• Growth through existing mill investments and new mills

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North America OSB Market Shares

2005 20102006

LP24.0%

Norbord

12.7%

Weyco12.4%

Grant10.3%

Huber8.6%

GP7.6%

Tolko7.2%

Other6.3%

Ainsworth

11.0%

Weyco

15.3%

Norbord

13.6%

Ainsworth

13.6%

GP

10.0%

Huber

7.8%

Tolko

5.8%

Grant

6.4%

Other

6.2% LP

21.4%LP

24.4%

Weyco

14.9%

Ainsworth

11.1%

GP

9.8%

Huber

7.6%

Grant

6.2%

Tolko

5.7%

Other

7.0%

Norbord

13.3%

Source: RISI 2005 Capacity Survey

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$/

MB

F

115

130

145

160

175

190

205

220

235

250

265

280

295

310

325

340

355

370

385

400

415

430

445

460

475

490

505

520

535

550

565

580

21-May-99

30-Jul-99

8-Oct-99

17-Dec-99

25-Feb-00

5-May-00

14-Jul-00

29-Sep-00

8-Dec-00

16-Feb-01

27-Apr-01

6-Jul-01

14-Sep-01

23-Nov-01

1-Feb-02

12-Apr-02

21-Jun-02

30-Aug-02

8-Nov-02

24-Jan-03

4-Apr-03

13-Jun-03

22-Aug-03

31-Oct-03

9-Jan-04

19-Mar-04

28-May-04

6-Aug-04

15-Oct-04

23-Dec-04

4-Mar-05

13-May-05

22-Jul-05

30-Sep-05

9-Dec-05

17-Feb-06

28-Apr-06

7-Jul-06

15-Sep-06

22-Nov-06

2-Feb-07

13-Apr-07

15

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ISI E

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OSB Plywood OSB Share

Structural Panel Demand – North America

BSF

Source: RISI February 2007, 5 year forecast

OSB Share

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Structural Panel Share by Application

RISI Segment Shares - 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Plywood 20% 38% 75% 39% 56% 75%

OSB 80% 62% 25% 61% 44% 25%

ResidentialNon-

ResidentialIndustrial R&R Canada Exports

RISI Segment Shares - 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Plywood 7% 19% 67% 21% 40% 71%

OSB 93% 81% 33% 79% 60% 29%

ResidentialNon-

ResidentialIndustrial R&R Canada Exports

Source: RISI February 2007 5-year forecast

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Engineered Wood Products

Mill capacities:

LVL - 12.1 mmcf

- Murphy marketing agreement (2008)

I-Joist - 80 mmlf

- 140 mmlf (Abitibi JV)

OSL - 7 mmcf (2008)

• #1 position in solid-sawn I-Joist

• #3 overall position EWP

• Adding Oriented Strand Lumber

capability

• Supportive and growing customer

base (#1 supplier to 2-step

independent distribution)

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Growth Potential for Engineered Wood Products

Total EWP Potential:

LVL, I-Joist, related

11.7 BBF

Historical Market

Growth

Lumber

70%

Strand Lumber 5%

Eng’d Wood

~30%

Captive Sales

Others, 23%

LP, 12%

BC, 17%

WY, 48%

Eng’d Wood Shares

$3.0 Billion

Overall Market: 2%

- New Construction

Strand Technology

Growth: 11%

Eng’d Wood: 7%

- New Construction

- Displace Lumber

LP Technology

(LVL & I-Joist)

25%

CAGR is for 2001 to 2006

Source: LP estimates

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I-Joist and LVL Volume Growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: RISI/APA estimates / forecasts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

APA RISI

I-Joist Demand

LVL Demand

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OSL Expands “LP House”

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Siding

• Smart Side product line exhibiting strong

growth:

– Family of products – lap, panel, trim,

fascia, soffit

– Lower installed cost than Fiber Cement,

Aluminum, and Wood

– Curb appeal / outstanding performance

• Hardboard – lowest cost and broadest

product line in the industry

Mill capacities:

4 SmartSide mills – 900 mmsf

2 Hardboard mills – 550 mmsf

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Exterior Siding Market by Category – 2005

Total Siding Demand in North America in 2005 = 11 billion square feet

Source: Ciprus, Freedonia, James Hardie, LP Internal

Hardboard

5%

Natural Wood

3%

Brick

9%

Stucco

10%

Smartside

5% Fiber Cement

19%

Vinyl

40%

Other

5%

Plywood

4%

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Lap

Panel

Soffit

Trim

LP Siding Segment Products

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Other Building Products

• Outdoor Living – top 5 position, single plant

scenario, focus on profitability

• Chile – current mill supports early South

American growth; another to be completed

late in 2007 for further international growth

• Mouldings – profitable interior business with

ability to broaden product line

• U.S. GreenFiber – largest cellulose insulation

business in North America (50%-owned JV)

Mill capacities:

Decking – 90 mmlf

Chile – 130 mmsf; 150 mmsf being added

Moulding – 300 mmlf

U.S. GreenFiber – 14 facilities

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Global OSB = 27 billion SF; U.S. comprises 85 %

World Population By Region

6.4 Billion People

Europe

Asia

South America

North America

Asia

Europe

South America

North America

Africa

2005 Global OSB Demand

27 Billion SF

Current market Theoretical opportunity

The opportunity for OSB is just emerging

International – Situation Analysis

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2007 Outlook / Actions

• Limited housing recovery expected

• Challenging from an earnings perspective

• Continued focus on cost reductions and improvements

throughout the organization

• Drive marketing and sales activities to take share

• Complete new mills under construction to set us up for

hitting the new home construction recovery in full stride

• Take advantage of financial flexibility afforded by strong

balance sheet to grow through the cycle