Looking to the Future …..how to think about a 20 year horizon when it is likely to involve...

Looking to the Future

…..how to think about a 20 year horizon when it is likely to involve technology that doesn't yet exist.

How to Predict the Future

Alan Rogerson will run a marathon in

under 3 hours

New Zealand will embrace

biotechnology and start to move up the

OECD per-capita income league table

How to Predict the Future

Travel in style

Sinclair C5

On the subject of travel….

Palo Alto

Glasgow Hull

JakartaNZ

Bali

NZ

Palo Alto to Jakarta… …

Pharm Res. 1991 Oct;8(10):1258-63.

Parenteral peptide formulations: chemical and physical properties of native luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) and hydrophobic analogues in aqueous solution.

Powell MF, Sanders LM, Rogerson A, Si V.

Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Syntex Research, Palo Alto, California.

Researched Hydrophobic LHRHAnalogues in 1986 and 1987

My girlfriend was using theproduct when we met in Jakarta in 1995

Predict the Future 20 years ago, in Palo Alto, I would never have dreamed I

would be a New Zealand citizen So can anybody learn anything from developments of the

last 20-30 years? Some of the most radical developments happened as a

by-product of other developments Text messaging on mobile phones

Looking to the past for guidance is not often reliable, as developments are often transformational

The manual typewriter to e-mails with attached documents The gramaphone to the 120Gb i-pod with 30,000 songs

The speed of uptake of new technologies is often exponential

So What Can We Rely On?

The Unexpected When anyone asks me how I can

best describe my experience in nearly forty years at sea, I merely say, uneventful. In all my experience, I have never been in any accident. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort.

E. J. Smith, 1907, Captain, RMS Titanic

lift off

nobody saw it coming

I Never Saw It Coming……

so farso good


THEN

2-week wait to get a set of fingerprints matched


THEN NOW


Few days’ wait to get a DNA profile generated and matched


THEN NOW



The Apple Luggable


THEN NOW



The Apple Luggable Tiny, wireless laptops that weigh less than a meat pie


THEN NOW




Cellphones that caused back-ache when carried for long periods


THEN NOW





Cellphones you can lose in the turn-up of your shorts


THEN NOW






A fatal, strange disease of gay men in San Francisco


THEN NOW







HIV, AIDS, anti-retroviral drugs and a >20 year life expectancy


THEN NOW








Impotence, humiliation and embarrassment


THEN NOW









Viagra and Cialis

I Never Saw It Coming……THEN NOW WHAT NEXT?

2-week wait to get fingerprints matched

Few days’ wait to get a DNA profile generated







Viagra and Cialis




Genetic testing of predisposition to crime?







Viagra and Cialis






A James Bond type of watch that does everything?






Viagra and Cialis









…..including phone calls.

Or conducting fibres incorporated into garments?




Viagra and Cialis













A vaccine for HIV and all other auto-immune disorders (and malaria)


Viagra and Cialis









…..including phone calls? Or conducting fibres incorporated into garments?



A vaccine for HIV and all other auto-immune disorders (and malaria)?


Viagra and Cialis Genetic testing of predisposition to impotence with a discrete vaccine?













A vaccine for HIV and all other auto-immune disorders (and malaria)


Viagra and Cialis Genetic testing of predisposition to impotence, then vaccination?

Choose your own challenge

Choose your own vision

Mythbusters You’ll get a nose-bleed driving faster than 30 mph

Mythbusters Women shouldn’t run further than 800m

Mythbusters Groups with guitars are on the way out

Mythbusters A black man will never become President of the

USA

Is this the world’s greatest challenge? Approximately 150 people

are added to the world population every minute.

It’s like adding a city the size of Chicago every month

In some African countries women will give birth to an average of 7 children each

There is a strong correlation between high birth rates and poor countries

www.overpopulation.org

The World’s Greatest Challenge in Perspective

The amount of available land per head has dropped by 50% in 40 years...

More people will use more water…

……and more power

Alarming Future Trends

In your lifetime The population of the world could get close to 12

billion, almost double what it is now There will be more people and they will live longer Every year hundreds of millions will buy cars, fridges,

air-conditioners and other stuff which is not very carbon-neutral

What will be their combined environmental impact? What do you plan to do about it?

Umpteen billion is a lot of people

The problem is not so much the number of people, it is more Where will they all live Where will the resources come from for food, water,

housing, power How will all of their waste be managed How will you provide health-care for everybody Will current management paradigms be able to cope

with the scary prospect of the world becoming too full

Umpteen billion is a lot of people

This works well for bacteria in an confined space with limited resources?

Will it work like this for the human population?

If so, where are we on the growth curve?

Can biotech change the paradigm..

Biotechnology is a fact of life and in some crops (including soy) GM is predominant

GM is a procedure that is almost as routine as changing oil GM technology, capability and applicability will continue to

develop at an exponential rate 10 years to plant the first billion acres of GM crops 2 years to plant the second billion acres

Attempts by the West to ban GM foods will not avert the rate of development

GM will be able to deliver plants which change the paradigm of protein production

GM plants will further muddy the differentiation between food and medicine


Genetic Modification Transgenic Modification

Taking genes from one species and inserting them into a different species

Fundamentally alters genetic code, unlikely to mimic nature This is what gave us human insulin from GM E. coli

Directed mutagenesis (cis-genics®) No trans-species genes are inserted A plant’s own genes are altered, in the same way as they

would be through spontaneous mutations So are these plants genuinely genetically modified?

Over hundreds of years this effect has come from selected breeding and the eventual modification of 5 genes



Drought Resistance

Wild type

Orf 54


Improved Biomass

Wild typeORF Xi

Functional Genomics


Improved Digestibility

Transgenic Modification can be good for you

Human InsulinGolden Rice

Rice with Cholera Vaccine Drought-resistant corn

Agriculture and Biotechnology

You will need to feed 11 or 12 billion people in your lifetime

Arable land per person is dropping by 50% every 40 years

In the same period the population will increase by 3 billion

You need to change the paradigm and think outside the box and outside the room

You need biotechnology to become an integral component of agriculture

The GM cat is out of the bag GM is passé in

MedicineAgriculture

3 billion acres of canola, soy, cotton, maize, papaya, tomatoes

what of the next 30 years?Soy throughout the world

90% of US soy is GM >60% of world soy is GM What premium for GM-free? Can the world afford GM-free?

Take soy, add some imagination

Hi-Bred Soy® (DuPont). High oleic acid, improved cooking performance with negligible trans fats.

Soy with low saturated fat composition allowing links to cholesterol-lowering.

Soy with increased levels of long-chain omega-3 is targeting 50% reduction in risk of heart attack

GM soy with high levels of the isoflavone genistein reduces the development of prostate tumour cells

Allergen-free soy in development at University of Illinois Flatulence-free soy beans have successfully passed the

first stage of development in Singapore Soy has increasing links to calcium remineralisation and

bone health

Take soy, add some imagination The soy bean genome has only recently been

sequenced. It is available, free, to any research group in the world Armed with this genome it is relatively easy modify

inherent traits and/or adding new traits With access to this valuable soy genetic library, it will

likely be possible over the next 20-30 years to deliver: Plants that use less water, less fertiliser and no pesticides A range of soy plants with specific isoflavones for specific

health/wellness applications Human-equivalent proteins, carbohydrates etc The raw materials for soy butter, cheese etc A protein that is the equivalent of beef, lamb and/or venison Anything else you can imagine

GM in Agriculture Elsewhere in the World

China will become 90% self-sufficient in food by 2020 This will be achieved through embracing biotechnology The Chinese government have committed US$1.2 billion p.a. to

help the process Chinese consumers have a positive view of biotech China is the world’s biggest producer of GM cotton and biggest

importer of GM soy

Field trials of GM crops are taking place in at least 4 Australian states

7 countries in EU are growing commercial GM maize North and South America have seriously embraced GM

crops

What does this mean for New Zealand The world is moving towards GM, NZ is clinging to

GM-free Is this a bad thing?

GM will become a fact of life worldwide in the next 30 years and we will miss the boat

Is this a good thing? GM-free may represent a good point of differentiation to add to

clean, green and friendly Is there an option to use GM to improve clean and green

Is there a middle ground we can occupy which is GM-free but not organic?

Do we want to occupy this middle ground?

What does this mean for New Zealand

NZ’s primary producers will be under greater pressure to Reverse environmental damage Add value as commodity prices continue to fall Do we want to live in this brave new world, where there may only

be limited, high-value, niche animal-based primary production

Do we have a strong enough commitment to biotech research and management of IP to benefit from these opportunities? If not, do we need such a commitment?

In my Grandmother’s lifetime….

Margaret Rogerson (1894-1993)Motor car, bus, hovercraft, electric trainRadio, TV, phone, fax, computerAir travel, space travel, man on the moonCure for TB, antibiotics, vaccinations for

whooping cough, measles and rubellaNuclear power, nuclear arms, nuclear

magnetic resonance

My generation

We are providing the tool-kitMolecular biologyGenome mapping and its applicationGenetic-based selection traits for everythingGM you would not even noticeFood with the capacity to deliver

medical/health benefitsFaster, cheaper, easier

Your generation

What can you imagine being able to achieve in your lifetimeFeed the worldSolve the problem of children dying needlesslyReverse global warming and environmental

damage and fix the polar ice-capsCure malaria, AIDS and dementiaDevelop and implement your own paradigm

shift

My legacy?

….but I am not dead yet

My Generation’s Legacy

What will be your legacy?

Your challenge is to Think about a 20-30 year horizon which involves

technology that doesn't yet exist Don’t be constrained by what you know Dream the Impossible Dream Bust your own myths

The reward of a thing well done is to have done itRalph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882)

What Have I Learned?

Johnny Nash1940-

There are more questions than answersPictures in my mind that will not showThere are more questions than answersAnd the more I find out the less I know

November 1972

Looking to the Future …..how to think about a 20 year horizon when it is likely to involve...

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