Looking ahead in 2016 - whatsupdownsouth.comPrepared for Washington County Economic Summit January...
Transcript of Looking ahead in 2016 - whatsupdownsouth.comPrepared for Washington County Economic Summit January...
Looking ahead in 2016
Soltis Investment Advisors is proud to beamong the first investment advisorsglobally to successfully complete theindependent certification process ofCEFEX, Centre for Fiduciary Excellence.CEFEX certification independentlyanalyzes the trustworthiness and bestpractice processes of investmentfiduciaries.
Prepared for Washington County Economic Summit
January 16, 2016
Soltis Investment Advisors
Soltis Background
Founded in 1993 as a Fee-Only, Federally Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) Firm.
The Company’s Key Philosophy is Founded on Performance, Independence, and a Non-Conflict of Interest Environment.
Currently Manage/Advise over $1.7 Billion for more than 100 Institutional Clients.
Soltis is ranked in the upper 10% of Registered Investment Advisory Firms in the Country.
Mission Statement“To create, build, and manage wealth so our clients are free to pursue life’s most important endeavors.”
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Soltis Investment Advisors Soltis Advisors and Support Team
Tippett &
Moorhead
Consulting & Distribution Partners
DEFINITIVE ADVISORS Innovative Financial Services
James Shumway
Investment Advisors
Hal Anderson Kim AndersonTyler Wilkinson Clark Taylor
Tyler Finlinson Jeff Brimhall
David Sentman Ashley Nixon
Sharon Peck Kelli Holmstead
Jill Homer
Joyce Madsen
Support Staff
Nancy Bailey
T.J. AdamsShawn Woods
Brent Moore Bill Wallace Lindsey Bryant
Allen CannonWayne DeMeesterBruce Merrell
2015 Recognition
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300 Top
Registered Investment Advisers
Top 401
Retirement Plan Advisers
Soltis Named Among Top 1,200 Financial Advisors
Soltis Ranked 7th RegisteredInvestment Advisors
Looking ahead in 2016
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The Fed and Interest Rates
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Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the fed futures market as of the date of the December 2015 Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. *Forecasts of 17 FOMC participants, midpoints of central tendency except for federal funds rate,
which is a median estimate. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2015.
The Impact of Rising Rates Will Vary Greatly
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S&P 500 Valuation Measures
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Source: FactSet, FRB, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Price to earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing
10-years of inflation-adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend yield is calculated as the next 12-month consensus dividend
divided by most recent price. Price to book ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to cash flow is price divided by NTM
cash flow. EY minus Baa yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price)
minus the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. Std. dev. over-/under-valued is calculated using the average and standard
deviation over 25 years for each measure. *P/CF is a 20-year average due to cash flow data availability.
Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2015.
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Global GDP Prospects
Future Equity Outlook
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Global Business Cycles: Developed Countries
DM: developed market. Note: The diagram above is a hypothetical illustration of the business cycle. There is not always a chronological, linear
progression among the phases of the business cycle, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier
one. #A growth recession is a significant decline in activity relative to a country’s long-term economic potential. We have adopted the “growth
cycle” definition for most developing economies, such as China, because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance driven by rapid factor
accumulation and increases in productivity, and the deviation from the trend tends to matter the most for asset returns. We use the classic
definition of recession, involving an outright contraction in economic activity, for developed economies. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART).
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World’s Largest Economies Now and Future
Randy E. Pearce, CFA, MBA
Portfolio Manager, Sr. Research Analyst, and
co-Director of Research, Grandeur Peak Funds
Brad C. Barth, MSc
Sr. Research Analyst
For Investment Professional Use Only
Don’t bias your portfolio to US holdings or Large Cap
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source: Bloomberg (data as of 9/30/2015); Giant Cap companies = market caps > $40 billion; Large-caps = market caps > $8 - $40 billion; Mid-caps = $1.5 - $8 billion;
Small-caps = $500 - $1,500 million; Micro-caps = $100 - $500 million. Companies < $10 million or had not traded in the last thirty days were excluded.
Micro, 11%
Micro, 59%
Small, 3%
Small, 12%
Mid, 3%
Mid, 8%
Large, 1%
Large, 2%
Giant, 0.3%
Giant, 0.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Investible Global Universe (~38,000 companies)
• 82% of investible companies are outside of the US
• 96% of investible companies are Micro - Midcap
For Investment Professional Use Only
0.5
2.5
4.5
6.5
8.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asian GDP Growth2000 - 2014
China/Hong Kong Indonesia India
Malaysia Thailand Korea
Japan
Global GDP Trends
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0.9
1.4
1.9
2.4
2.9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Regional GDP Growth2000 - 2014
World US Europe Asia
6.3%
3.8%
6.2%
7.2%
Annualized
Rate of Growth
15.7%
12.8%
11.0%
9.3%8.3%
-0.2%
Annualized
Rate of Growth
• Asian ex-Japan economies are on the rise
• China has overtaken Japan as the Asian
economic engine
6.8%
source: World Bank (data as of Dec 2014)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% of Global GDP2000 - 2014
US Europe Asia Japan China/Hong Kong
For Investment Professional Use Only
Global Trade
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9.3%
15.0% 15.5% 15.7%17.9%
22.6%
36.8%
40.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Exports as % of GDPin 2014
source: JP Morgan Asset Management, IMF (data as of Dec 2014)
• Non-US companies are becoming
more important on the global stage
For Investment Professional Use Only
FX Rates
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source: Bloomberg (data as of 9/30/2015)
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
Dec
-13
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-15
Sep
-15
Spot Currency Rates per $USDIndexed to 12/31/2013
Euro British Pound Japanese Yen
Chinese Yuan Brazilian Real Mexican Peso
-5%
-9%
-12%
-19%
-23%
-40%
% Decline vs. USD
• Non-US companies have become
more competitive vs. US companies
because of currency rate declines
For Investment Professional Use Only
source: Bloomberg (data as of 9/30/2015); Giant Cap companies = market caps > $40 billion; Large-caps = market caps > $8 - $40 billion; Mid-caps = $1.5 - $8 billion;
Small-caps = $500 - $1,500 million; Micro-caps = $100 - $500 million. Companies < $10 million or had not traded in the last thirty days were excluded.
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Caveat: Market statistics do not capture the whole picture
• There are roughly 38,000 investible companies
across the globe
• Most market statistics focus on only the Large and
Giant cap companies
(4% of the total universe)
• Most investors focus on the S&P 500 (1.3% of the
total universe)
Micro, 70%
Small, 15%
Mid, 11%
Large, 3%Giant, 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Investible Global Universe (~38,000 companies)
For Investment Professional Use Only
10-year Earnings per Share Growth
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-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Earnings Per Share (in $USD)Indexed to 9/30/2005
All-Country World Index US Europe Japan Emerging Markets
4.8%3.6%2.7%2.2%
-2.9%
• US, Japan and Emg Mkt companies
have outpaced the average EPS
growth
• Europe has struggled
source: Bloomberg, MSCI (data as of 9/30/2015)
10yr Annualized Earning Growth
For Investment Professional Use Only
Current Valuations
14.215.4
11.9
14.2 14.213
9.88.7
17.5
10.6
13.214
11.7 11.6
13.6
16
9.8
11.7
16
10.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
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Current Forward Price/Earnings multiples vs. 10 yr average
Fwd P/E 10yr Avg P/E
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source: Factset, MSCI, JP Morgan Asset Management (data as of 9/30/2015)
• Most countries have lower
valuations than the US
For Investment Professional Use Only
Disclosures
The objective of all Grandeur Peak strategies is long-term growth of capital. There is no assurance that the objective will be achieved.
Investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss.Investing in small and micro cap strategies will be more volatile and loss of principal could be greater than investing in large cap or more diversified strategies. Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties. Investments in emerging markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
©2015 Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC
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Soltis Investment Advisors
20 N. Main Suite 400
St. George, UT 84770
222 S. Main Suite 1776
Salt Lake City, UT 54101
SoltisAdvisors.com
(800) 735-1601 (435) 674-1600