Looking ahead in 2016 - whatsupdownsouth.comPrepared for Washington County Economic Summit January...

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Looking ahead in 2016 Soltis Investment Advisors is proud to be among the first investment advisors globally to successfully complete the independent certification process of CEFEX, Centre for Fiduciary Excellence. CEFEX certification independently analyzes the trustworthiness and best practice processes of investment fiduciaries. Prepared for Washington County Economic Summit January 16, 2016

Transcript of Looking ahead in 2016 - whatsupdownsouth.comPrepared for Washington County Economic Summit January...

Page 1: Looking ahead in 2016 - whatsupdownsouth.comPrepared for Washington County Economic Summit January 16, 2016. Soltis Investment Advisors Soltis Background ... are free to pursue life’s

Looking ahead in 2016

Soltis Investment Advisors is proud to beamong the first investment advisorsglobally to successfully complete theindependent certification process ofCEFEX, Centre for Fiduciary Excellence.CEFEX certification independentlyanalyzes the trustworthiness and bestpractice processes of investmentfiduciaries.

Prepared for Washington County Economic Summit

January 16, 2016

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Soltis Investment Advisors

Soltis Background

Founded in 1993 as a Fee-Only, Federally Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) Firm.

The Company’s Key Philosophy is Founded on Performance, Independence, and a Non-Conflict of Interest Environment.

Currently Manage/Advise over $1.7 Billion for more than 100 Institutional Clients.

Soltis is ranked in the upper 10% of Registered Investment Advisory Firms in the Country.

Mission Statement“To create, build, and manage wealth so our clients are free to pursue life’s most important endeavors.”

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Soltis Investment Advisors Soltis Advisors and Support Team

Tippett &

Moorhead

Consulting & Distribution Partners

DEFINITIVE ADVISORS Innovative Financial Services

James Shumway

Investment Advisors

Hal Anderson Kim AndersonTyler Wilkinson Clark Taylor

Tyler Finlinson Jeff Brimhall

David Sentman Ashley Nixon

Sharon Peck Kelli Holmstead

Jill Homer

Joyce Madsen

Support Staff

Nancy Bailey

T.J. AdamsShawn Woods

Brent Moore Bill Wallace Lindsey Bryant

Allen CannonWayne DeMeesterBruce Merrell

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2015 Recognition

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300 Top

Registered Investment Advisers

Top 401

Retirement Plan Advisers

Soltis Named Among Top 1,200 Financial Advisors

Soltis Ranked 7th RegisteredInvestment Advisors

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Looking ahead in 2016

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The Fed and Interest Rates

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Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the fed futures market as of the date of the December 2015 Federal Open

Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. *Forecasts of 17 FOMC participants, midpoints of central tendency except for federal funds rate,

which is a median estimate. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2015.

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The Impact of Rising Rates Will Vary Greatly

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S&P 500 Valuation Measures

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Source: FactSet, FRB, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Price to earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing

10-years of inflation-adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend yield is calculated as the next 12-month consensus dividend

divided by most recent price. Price to book ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to cash flow is price divided by NTM

cash flow. EY minus Baa yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price)

minus the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. Std. dev. over-/under-valued is calculated using the average and standard

deviation over 25 years for each measure. *P/CF is a 20-year average due to cash flow data availability.

Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2015.

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Global GDP Prospects

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Future Equity Outlook

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Global Business Cycles: Developed Countries

DM: developed market. Note: The diagram above is a hypothetical illustration of the business cycle. There is not always a chronological, linear

progression among the phases of the business cycle, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier

one. #A growth recession is a significant decline in activity relative to a country’s long-term economic potential. We have adopted the “growth

cycle” definition for most developing economies, such as China, because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance driven by rapid factor

accumulation and increases in productivity, and the deviation from the trend tends to matter the most for asset returns. We use the classic

definition of recession, involving an outright contraction in economic activity, for developed economies. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART).

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World’s Largest Economies Now and Future

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Randy E. Pearce, CFA, MBA

Portfolio Manager, Sr. Research Analyst, and

co-Director of Research, Grandeur Peak Funds

Brad C. Barth, MSc

Sr. Research Analyst

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For Investment Professional Use Only

Don’t bias your portfolio to US holdings or Large Cap

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source: Bloomberg (data as of 9/30/2015); Giant Cap companies = market caps > $40 billion; Large-caps = market caps > $8 - $40 billion; Mid-caps = $1.5 - $8 billion;

Small-caps = $500 - $1,500 million; Micro-caps = $100 - $500 million. Companies < $10 million or had not traded in the last thirty days were excluded.

Micro, 11%

Micro, 59%

Small, 3%

Small, 12%

Mid, 3%

Mid, 8%

Large, 1%

Large, 2%

Giant, 0.3%

Giant, 0.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Investible Global Universe (~38,000 companies)

• 82% of investible companies are outside of the US

• 96% of investible companies are Micro - Midcap

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For Investment Professional Use Only

0.5

2.5

4.5

6.5

8.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Asian GDP Growth2000 - 2014

China/Hong Kong Indonesia India

Malaysia Thailand Korea

Japan

Global GDP Trends

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0.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Regional GDP Growth2000 - 2014

World US Europe Asia

6.3%

3.8%

6.2%

7.2%

Annualized

Rate of Growth

15.7%

12.8%

11.0%

9.3%8.3%

-0.2%

Annualized

Rate of Growth

• Asian ex-Japan economies are on the rise

• China has overtaken Japan as the Asian

economic engine

6.8%

source: World Bank (data as of Dec 2014)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% of Global GDP2000 - 2014

US Europe Asia Japan China/Hong Kong

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Global Trade

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9.3%

15.0% 15.5% 15.7%17.9%

22.6%

36.8%

40.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Exports as % of GDPin 2014

source: JP Morgan Asset Management, IMF (data as of Dec 2014)

• Non-US companies are becoming

more important on the global stage

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For Investment Professional Use Only

FX Rates

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source: Bloomberg (data as of 9/30/2015)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-15

Sep

-15

Spot Currency Rates per $USDIndexed to 12/31/2013

Euro British Pound Japanese Yen

Chinese Yuan Brazilian Real Mexican Peso

-5%

-9%

-12%

-19%

-23%

-40%

% Decline vs. USD

• Non-US companies have become

more competitive vs. US companies

because of currency rate declines

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For Investment Professional Use Only

source: Bloomberg (data as of 9/30/2015); Giant Cap companies = market caps > $40 billion; Large-caps = market caps > $8 - $40 billion; Mid-caps = $1.5 - $8 billion;

Small-caps = $500 - $1,500 million; Micro-caps = $100 - $500 million. Companies < $10 million or had not traded in the last thirty days were excluded.

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Caveat: Market statistics do not capture the whole picture

• There are roughly 38,000 investible companies

across the globe

• Most market statistics focus on only the Large and

Giant cap companies

(4% of the total universe)

• Most investors focus on the S&P 500 (1.3% of the

total universe)

Micro, 70%

Small, 15%

Mid, 11%

Large, 3%Giant, 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Investible Global Universe (~38,000 companies)

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For Investment Professional Use Only

10-year Earnings per Share Growth

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-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

-12

Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Earnings Per Share (in $USD)Indexed to 9/30/2005

All-Country World Index US Europe Japan Emerging Markets

4.8%3.6%2.7%2.2%

-2.9%

• US, Japan and Emg Mkt companies

have outpaced the average EPS

growth

• Europe has struggled

source: Bloomberg, MSCI (data as of 9/30/2015)

10yr Annualized Earning Growth

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For Investment Professional Use Only

Current Valuations

14.215.4

11.9

14.2 14.213

9.88.7

17.5

10.6

13.214

11.7 11.6

13.6

16

9.8

11.7

16

10.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

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Current Forward Price/Earnings multiples vs. 10 yr average

Fwd P/E 10yr Avg P/E

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source: Factset, MSCI, JP Morgan Asset Management (data as of 9/30/2015)

• Most countries have lower

valuations than the US

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For Investment Professional Use Only

Disclosures

The objective of all Grandeur Peak strategies is long-term growth of capital. There is no assurance that the objective will be achieved.

Investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss.Investing in small and micro cap strategies will be more volatile and loss of principal could be greater than investing in large cap or more diversified strategies. Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties. Investments in emerging markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

©2015 Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC

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Soltis Investment Advisors

20 N. Main Suite 400

St. George, UT 84770

222 S. Main Suite 1776

Salt Lake City, UT 54101

SoltisAdvisors.com

(800) 735-1601 (435) 674-1600