Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern...
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![Page 1: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the
Southern Ocean from Argo
Sarah Gille With input from many others including Neil Swart, John Fyfe, Matt Mazloff, Uriel Zajaczkovski
Scripps Institution of Oceanography U
pper
oce
an h
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1022
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(Roemmich et al, Nature Climate Change, 2015)
![Page 2: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Before Argo…. How much do we know?
Measurements at 1000 m: Before Argo, too gappy to map easily.
• What do floats and historic data together tell us about pre-Argo heat and freshwater change?
• What mechanisms account for change?
![Page 3: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
How do we assess change in T or S?
Historic data
Since 2004
![Page 4: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
How do we assess change in T or S? Use Roemmichand Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo era
• Compute Tprofile−Tmapped Argo or Sprofile –Smapped Argo.
![Page 5: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Southern Ocean warming since 1900
Historic hydrographic data minus modern Argo data, 40-60 S. (Gille et al, in prep)
Tprofile−Tmapped Argo
Using all data in climatology
![Page 6: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Southern Ocean warming since 1900
Historic hydrographic data minus modern Argo data, 40-60 S. (Gille et al, in prep)
Tprofile−Tmapped Argo
Using monthlyclimatology
![Page 7: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Southern Ocean warming since 1900
Historic hydrographic data minus modern Argo data, 50-60 S. (Gille et al, in prep)
Tprofile−Tmapped Argo
Using monthlyclimatology
Warming at surface, evenin 50-60 S range
![Page 8: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Southern Ocean also freshening
Historic hydrographic data minus modern Argo data, 40-60 S.(Gille et al, in prep)
Sprofile−Smapped Argo
![Page 9: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Mechanisms for Southern Ocean change
heat input from atmosphere
southward displacement of ACC
oceanic heat transport
For full Southern Ocean (south of 40S) • Advection (by mean
flow or eddies)? • Air-sea fluxes (heat
and evaporation minus precipitation)?
![Page 10: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What if water masses have shifted south?
Mean meridional T and S sections
![Page 11: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Meridional shifts in water masses?
• Suppose that over time, water masses have shifted south by 1° latitude.
• Since historic sampling is variable, resulting changes in water mass properties could appear to vary in time.
![Page 12: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Poleward shift implies warming • 1° southward
displacement. • Watermass shift can’t be
uniform with depth: observed warming surface intensified relative to hypothesized warming due to southward shift.
Hypothetical
Observed
![Page 13: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Poleward shift implies freshening at depth • Southward water
mass shift would account for freshening at middepth…
• ... but not freshening at surface.
Hypothetical
Observed
![Page 14: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Equatorward shift: freshening at surface • Northward water
mass shift would account for freshening at surface…
• ... but wouldn’t explain temperature trends at surface (or subsurface salinity trends).
Hypothetical
Observed
![Page 15: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Speed up of overturning circulation?
• Mid-depth water moving south; surface water moving north?
• But need surface fluxes to close temperature and salinity budgets in upper ocean.
![Page 16: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Estimating net air-sea fluxes
![Page 17: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Suppose all warming from atmosphere
Consistent with persistent Qnet of O(0.5 W m−2).
![Page 18: Long-term warming (and freshening) trends in the Southern ...oceans.mit.edu/~ozoneholeandclimate/Gille_FESD_Meeting_2016.pdf · Use Roemmich and Gilson (2009) climatology for Argo](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071101/5fdab5482de6a3616a2ffb71/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Suppose all freshening due to E-P
• Consistent with O(0.5) cm yr−1 freshwater input (0.01 Sv excess flux.)
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Summary/Conclusions
ΔT
ΔS
• Historic data minus modern Argo records indicate Southern Ocean warming throughout 20th century and freshening since 1950s.
• To explain surface and subsurface trends, invoke advection plus surface fluxes.
• Is the freshwater from precipitation or melt?