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Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources...
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Transcript of Long-Term River Basin Planning: GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney Center for Research in Water Resources...
Long-Term River Basin Planning:
GA-LP Approach Daene McKinney
Center for Research in Water Resources
University of Texas at Austin
Ximing CaiInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Leon LasdonDepartment of Management Science
University of Texas at Austin
Outline
• Sustainability in River Basin Planning
• Modeling Framework
• Solution Approach (GA-LP)
• Application
• Conclusions & Next steps
Sustainability in River Basin Planning
• Concepts of sustainable development – Demand management, supply reliability
and flexibility, environmental impact control, technology adaptation, economic efficiency, etc
• Broad guidelines – Provide guidance to planners, but– Not translated into operational concepts
that can be applied to specific systems
Modeling Framework
• Incorporate quantified sustainability criteria into long-term water resource systems models– Relations between water uses and their
long-term consequences – Tradeoffs in benefits received over many
generations
Application
• Water resources management in river basins with (semi) arid climate– Large diversions to irrigated agriculture– Potential for environmental degradation from water
and soil salinity
• Sustainability (one might define it as)– Ensuring long-term, stable and flexible water
supply capacity – Meeting irrigation and growing M&I demands, – Mitigating negative environmental consequences
Modeling Framework• Basic Premise
– Short-term decisions should be controlled by long-term sustainability criteria
• Long-term (Multi-year) Control– Inter-Year Control Program (IYCP) – Long-term model controlling short-term decisions
to approach sustainability
• Short-term (Annual) Control– Sequencing of Yearly Models (YMs) – Short-term models optimizing benefits for a year
Modeling FrameworkInter-Year Control Program (IYCP)
Inter-Year Control Variables (IYCV)
ws End of year water storageA Available area of a crop1 Water distribution efficiency 2 Water application efficiency 3 Water drainage efficiencytax Salt discharge tax rate
Yearly models
YM 1 YM 2 YM Y
Sustainability Criteria
RELi Reliability criterion, i = a or eREVi Reversibility criterion, i = a or eVULi Vulnerability criterion, i = a or e ENV Environment criterion SEQ Spatial equity criterionTEQ Temporal equity criterionEA Economic acceptability criterionEach is
NLP or LP
Solve by GA
Demand site (d)Area (a)Field (f)
WAF2
G
Q1
DP
ETA
DD
Groundwater
Crop (c)
WA
R
ER
RF P
Yearly Model
ObjectiveIrrigation benefitHydropower benefitEnvironmental benefit
ConstraintsFlow balancesSalinity balancesPolicy constraints
Solving the Yearly Model
IYCP
IYCP
IYCV(y) IYCV(y+1)
solution foryear y
solution foryear y+1
Stored water
Water salinity, Soil salinity,
Salt discharge
Flows
YM(y) YM(y+1)
FM(y) FM(y+1)
SM(y) SM(y+1)Water salinity,
Soil salinity, Salt discharge
Soil salinity, Salt discharge
Stored water
YM FM + SMDecomposeLinearizeLPs for each year
IYCP Objective Function • Weighted sum of sustainability criteria:
– Risk criteria (expressed in terms of agricultural and ecological water use)
• Reliability (frequency of system failure)
• Reversibility (time to return from system failure) • Vulnerability (severity of system failure)
– Environmental criteria • Max allowable water and soil salinities
– Equity criteria • Temporal (equitable access to benefits over time)
• Spatial (equitable geographic access to water)
– Economic acceptability criteria (impact of investment benefits)
Yeary=1,…,Y
Performance for year y
Performance of individual i:
F(IYCVg,i)=F(Risk, Env, Equity, Econ)
Performance of generation g:
Fi = F(IYCVg,i) , i=1,…,I
Individuali=1,…,I
Generationg=1,…,G
YM(y)
Igiggg IYCVIYCVIYCVIYCV ,,1, ,,,,
Yig
yigigig IYCVIYCVIYCVIYCV ,,
1,, ,,,,
ig
yd
ycd
yd
ycd
yd
yyig TAXAwsIYCV
,,,, ,,3,2,1,
Inter-Year Control Variables (IYCV)
ws Water storageA Area for crop1 Distribution efficiency 2 Application efficiency 3 Drainage efficiencytax Salt discharge tax rate
Solving the IYCP
IYCP
IYCV
YMs
Sustainability Criteria
IYCP
IYCV
YMs
Sustainability Criteria
IYCP
IYCVIYCV
YMs
Sustainability Criteria
Sustainability Criteria
Application – Syr Darya Basin
Syr Darya
Amu Darya
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Flow
(km3), Level (m), Area
(103 km2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Irrigated Land
(106 ha)
Flow
Area
Level
Irrigated Land
Aral Sea Basin XX Cent.
Aral Sea Basin (1989 – 2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ru
no
ff a
nd
In
flo
w (
km3)
Basin Runoff
Aral Inflow
•Question: Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts?
Amount being used for Irrigation
ASB River System
PovodhashCanal
Karadarya R.AndijanRes.Side
Inflow
AndijanUse
SideInflow
Naryn R.Toktogul
Res.
KurpsaiRes.
TashkamurRes.
ShamaldysaiRes.
UchkurganRes.
Side Inflow
Toktogul-Uchkurgan Use
AdjarUse
KayrakumUse
KayrakumRes.
CharvakRes.
Charvak R.
UgamInflow Side
Inflow
ChirchikUse
SideInflow
Kayrakum-Chardara Use
Arnasai
Kyzlkum Canal
SideInflow
Chardara-Aral Sea Use
Aral Sea
Vahsh R.
NurekRes.
Pyandj R.
Kafirnigan R.
Kashka R.
Surhan R.Upper Amu
Use
BukharaCanal
KarshiCanal
KarakumCanal
TuyamuyunRes.
RightCanal
Dashauz
LeftCanalDrinking
Canal
Petniak-Tash-Urgench
Klichbaj-Kipchak-Gumabaj
Soviet-Oktjabra-Pahta
KizketkenCanal
LeninaCanal
PumpingIntake
SYR DARYA BASIN
AMU DARYA BASIN
Small River or Side Inflow
Main River Inflow
Run-of-the-river Reservoir
Storage Reservoir
Hydropower Plant (HPP)
Diversion to User
User
PovodhashCanal
Karadarya R.AndijanRes.Side
Inflow
AndijanUse
SideInflow
Naryn R.Toktogul
Res.
KurpsaiRes.
TashkamurRes.
ShamaldysaiRes.
UchkurganRes.
Side Inflow
Toktogul-Uchkurgan Use
AdjarUse
KayrakumUse
KayrakumRes.
CharvakRes.
Charvak R.
UgamInflow Side
Inflow
ChirchikUse
SideInflow
Kayrakum-Chardara Use
Arnasai
Kyzlkum Canal
SideInflow
Chardara-Aral Sea Use
Aral Sea
Vahsh R.
NurekRes.
Pyandj R.
Kafirnigan R.
Kashka R.
Surhan R.Upper Amu
Use
BukharaCanal
KarshiCanal
KarakumCanal
TuyamuyunRes.
RightCanal
Dashauz
LeftCanalDrinking
Canal
Petniak-Tash-Urgench
Klichbaj-Kipchak-Gumabaj
Soviet-Oktjabra-Pahta
KizketkenCanal
LeninaCanal
PumpingIntake
SYR DARYA BASIN
AMU DARYA BASIN
Small River or Side Inflow
Main River Inflow
Run-of-the-river Reservoir
Storage Reservoir
Hydropower Plant (HPP)
Diversion to User
User
Small River or Side Inflow
Main River Inflow
Run-of-the-river Reservoir
Storage Reservoir
Hydropower Plant (HPP)
Diversion to User
User
Irrigation Profit
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
n n w vw vd d n n n n n w n w d n w n n vd n d d d w n n n d d
Irri
ga
tio
n b
en
efi
t (b
ln U
S$
) Master
Baseline
Scenarios•Baseline: No change•Master: Area & efficiencies are DV’s•Low Irrigation: reduced area
Crop Areas(Master Scenario)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Baseline Year 1-10 Year 11-20 Year 21-30
Irri
gat
ed A
rea
(%)
Cotton
Wheat
Alfalfa
Other
Efficiencies(Master Scenario)
Application Efficiency
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Baseline 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30
Ap
pli
ca
tio
n E
ffic
ien
cy
(%
)
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
Baseline 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30
Dis
trib
uti
on
Eff
icie
nc
y (
%)
Downstream
Midstream
Upstream
Distribution Efficiency
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
n n w vw vd d n n n n n w n w d n w n n vd n d d d w n n n d d
So
il S
ali
nit
y (
dS
/m)
Baseline
Low Irrigation
SoilSalinity
Salt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
n n w vw vd d n n n n n w n w d n w n n vd n d d d w n n n d d
Sa
lt d
isc
ha
rge
(th
ou
s t
on
ne
s)
Low Irrigation
SaltDischarge
Sustainability Criteria
Scenario REL REV VUL ENV TEQ SEQ EA
Baseline 4 4 4 3 3 3 NA
Master 2 2 1 2 2 1 1
Low Irrigation 1 1 2 1 1 2 2
High Irrigation 3 3 3 4 4 4 3
Sustainability criteria
Conclusions
• Modeling framework developed – short-term decisions combined with long-term
decisions to find sustainable patterns in irrigation-dominated river basins
• Results – Both soil and water salinity sensitive to changes in
irrigated area over the long-term– Small increases in irrigated area without
accompanying infrastructure improvements places the environment at risk
Conclusions
• Next Steps– Linking water and salt to energy– WB GEF project has incorporated
sustainability criteria into their project and are beginning to use the models
– Agricultural policy in the region– Both basins together (linked by energy)– Water allocation agreements
CAR Energy System
X – SmallH – ThermalG – HydroA – UserO – Pool
Amu Darya
Syr Darya
CAEP
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
UzbekistanKazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
X1
H1 G1
G2
H2
X2
X3
H3G3
X4H4G4
X5 H5G5
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
O1 O2
O3
O4O5
Water Results Display
Energy Results Display