LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS OF

ESTONIAN WOOD FUEL SUPPLY

Rauno ReinbergVilnius, Lithuania

1. General data about forest resources

2. Long-term prognosis

• Long-term prognosis, if the age distribution is normal

• Long-term prognosis for the present age structure of forests

3. Supply-demand balance of wood fuel

1. General data about forest resources

• According to the latest forest surveys, the area of woodland in Estonia is 2,25 Mha (51,5% of land area) and the calculated growing stock is 462 Mm3.

• The distribution of forest land by ownership categories is following: the area of state forests districts 37%, private forests 37%, forests under land reform 31%, forests of other owners 1%.

Forest tree species

• The allowable level of utilization of forest resources has been fixed in forestry development programmes, which are composed usually for the 10 years periods. In the Forestry Development Programme 1997 – 2001 the allowable level of cuttings was fixed to be 7,81 Mm3 annually.

• For the Forestry Development Programme 2001-2010 the annual allowable cut was re-estimated. It was fixed on the level of 12,6 Mm3 of merchantable wood and 0,5 Mm3 of sanitary cuttings.

Re-estimated annual allowable cut for Estonia, Mm3

Tree

species

Sawlogs Smalldimention

logs

Pulpwood Fuelwood Residues Total

Pine 0,867 0,388 0,395 0,119 0,336 2,104

Spruce 1,171 0,470 0,647 0,419 0,489 3,196

Birch 0,411 0,330 0,921 0,409 0,520 2,591

Aspen 0,203 0,085 0,642 0,594 0,321 1,844

Black alder 0,051 0,052 0,203 0,122 0,105 0,533

Grey alder etc. 0,022 0,091 0,927 0,794 0,496 2,330

Total 2,723 1,417 3,734 2,457 2,267 12,597

Sanitary and selection cutting 0,5 Mm3

2. Long-term prognosis

* Long-term prognosis, if the age distribution is normal

* Long-term prognosis for the present age structure of forests

Long-term prognosis, if the age distribution is normal

At the moment in Estonia a new Forest Act is under development, which may change the maturity norms of the forests. The impact of changing the maturity ages was analyzed.

• the valid official maturity norms stated by the Forest Act from

the year 1998;

• the maturity norms, proposed by the project of the Forest Act;

Maturity County Volume, m3/year

Logs Small dimen-sion logs

Pulp-wood Fuel wood Total Tops,branches*

Valid Forest Act Total 2791429 1346117 2618877 745691 7502116 1366786

Project of the ForestAct

Total 2708446 1090704 2438215 888905 7126270 1243825

Conclusions:

• If the Estonian forests will be managed according to the valid Forest Act, the annual yield in long-run will be 7,50 Mm3. But if the project of the Forest Act will be enforced and the maturity ages of the forests increased, the annual yield in long-run will be 7,13 Mm3.

• The total harvesting volume will be 375 thousand m3 less compared with the valid regulations due to the lower increment of older forests.

• The quantities of logs, small dimension logs and pulpwood will decrease.

• Correspondingly the volumes of harvesting residues (tops and branches) will decrease also.

• Only the volume of traditional fuelwood will be bigger, as the share of the rotten trees and the volume of low quality assortments will increase.

Estimation of the production capacity of forests carried out by Estonian Agricultural University

Long-term prognosis for the present age structure of forests

Today the share of older forests is relatively high and the real harvested volumes may be bigger. For the calculation of the yield of the fuel wood the following data was used:

• For state forests the data of the information system of the Estonian State Forest Management Organization was used. The data has been continuously updated and covers nearly 100% of the area of the state forests.

• But only a part of private forests is described by fresh inventory data and therefore the available data had to be generalized.

Maturation of private forests by dominating tree species since 2002

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Mature 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40Maturation, years

Are

a, h

aBirch

Spruce

Pine

Other

Maturation of state forests by dominating tree species since 2002

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Mature 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40

Maturation, years

Are

a, h

a

Birch

Spruce

Pine

Other

Maturation of Estonian forests by dominating tree species since 2002

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Mature 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40

Maturation, years

Are

a, h

a

Birch

Spruce

Pine

Other

Prognosis of the yield of the fuelwood from private forests in 2003-2032

Year Area of the finalfelling, ha

Traditionalfuelwood,

thousand m3

Harvesting residues,

thousand m3

2003 18500 2795,3 1349,6

2010 15180 1906,1 1107,4

2015 16444 1765,0 1199,6

2020 16808 1497,6 1226,2

2025 16351 1158,6 1192,8

2030 13953 734,3 1017,8

2032 12853 582,6 937,6

The potential yield of fuelwood, thousand m3

Ownership Fuelwood Branchesand tops

TotalEnergycontent,

TWhPrivate 2 795,3 1 349,6 4 144,9 8,29State 443,2 452,5 819,9 1,64

Potential yield today

Total 3 238,5 1 726,3 4 964,8 9,93Private 582,6 937,6 1 520,2 3,04State 376,7 384,6 761,3 1,52

Prognosis for the year2032

Total 959,3 1 322,2 2 281,5 4,56

Forecast of the wood fuel supply for the coming 30 years

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000Harvesting residues from privateforests

Traditional fuelwood from privateforests

Harvesting residues from stateforests

Traditional fuelwood from stateforests

• Due to the big share of mature aspen and grey alder stands, in private forests the dominating assortment is fuelwood.

The data indicates that today we can use for energy production about 5 Mm3 of fuelwood and forest residues, after 30 years about 2.3 Mm3.

•After 35-40 years the harvesting volumes are expected to stabilize and then a slight increase will follow.

Conclusions:• The potential yield of fuelwood from private and state forests today is about 3

238,5 thousand m3 (2 795,3 + 443,2), but it will decrease more than three times to the level of 959,3 (582,6 + 376,7) thousand m3 by the year 2032. These changes are caused by the changes of the age structure and the composition of stands by tree species, mainly due to the better management of private forests.

• The quantities of harvesting residues will decrease from 1 802,1 thousand m3 (1349,6 + 452,5) to the level of 1 322,2 thousand m3 (937,6 + 384,6). These changes are mainly determined by the decrease of the harvesting volumes.

• So, today we can use for energy production about 5 Mm3 of fuelwood and residues, after 30 years about 2,3 Mm3. Also the results of the modelling in the case of normal age distribution indicated, that in the future the available quantities of wood fuel will be smaller than today. All these figures show the theoretical potential, the real utilized quantities depend on the wood market and may be much less.

3. Supply-demand balance of wood fuel

Supply of wood fuel in Estonia

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

tho

usa

nd

m3

W oodchips andw oodw aste

W ood fuel

The demand-supply balance of wood fuel by counties (2004)

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Hiium

aa

Lääne

maa

Raplam

aa

Harju

maa

Järv

amaa

Lääne

-Viru

maa

Ida-

Virum

aa

Saare

maa

Pärnu

maa

Viljandi

maa

Jõgev

amaa

Tartu

maa

Põlva

maa

Valga

maa

Võrum

aa

PJ

Resources

Consumption

Balance

The demand-supply balance of wood fuel by counties(long-term prognosis)

• The data confirms, that in long-run the supply with wood fuels will not be sufficient to keep the consumption on the present level.

• The biggest shortage of fuel is expected in Tartumaa and Harjumaa counties. The conclusion is, that though in the near future there are sufficient resources of wood fuel available, in long-run the situation is not promising.