LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATIC LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATIC EXTREMES OVER SPAINEXTREMES OVER SPAIN

By By M. BrunetM. Brunet, , With the help of J. Sigró*, O. Saladié*, E. Aguilar* and P.D. JonesWith the help of J. Sigró*, O. Saladié*, E. Aguilar* and P.D. Jones

*Climate Change Research Group, URV, Tarragona, Spain*Climate Change Research Group, URV, Tarragona, Spain Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UKClimatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK

Meeting of the CCl Expert Team on Climate Monitoring20-22 September 2006, Tarragona, Spain

AIM:AIM: To document changes in To document changes in climatic extremes occurrence over climatic extremes occurrence over Spain across the 20th century with Spain across the 20th century with a special emphasis in the recent a special emphasis in the recent period of strong Spanish warming period of strong Spanish warming (1973-2005)(1973-2005)

OUTLINE:OUTLINE: Data and AnalysisData and Analysis

Changes in temperature extremesChanges in temperature extremes

Changes in precipitation extremesChanges in precipitation extremes

THE DATATHE DATA22 Daily 22 Daily maximum and maximum and minimum minimum temperature temperature time series time series recovered under recovered under the framework the framework of the EU-of the EU-funded project funded project EMULATE EMULATE ((http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cruhttp://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/emulate.html/projects/emulate.html))

Localization Localization MapMapAvailable versus Available versus potential datapotential data

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

daily

dat

a

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

n. o

f s

tati

ons

available data potential data stations

THE ANALYSISTHE ANALYSIS The raw temperature data wereThe raw temperature data were

Minimised accounting for the “screen bias”Minimised accounting for the “screen bias” Quality Controlled (QCed)Quality Controlled (QCed) Homogenised on a daily basis, according to the procedures described inHomogenised on a daily basis, according to the procedures described in

Brunet, M., O. Saladié, P. Jones, J. Sigró, A. Moberg, E. Aguilar, A. Walther, D. Lister, Brunet, M., O. Saladié, P. Jones, J. Sigró, A. Moberg, E. Aguilar, A. Walther, D. Lister, and D. López (2006), The development of a new daily adjusted temperature dataset and D. López (2006), The development of a new daily adjusted temperature dataset for Spain (1850-2003), for Spain (1850-2003), Int. J. Climatol.,Int. J. Climatol., in press (now online on the IJC website in press (now online on the IJC website))

And the raw daily rainfall data were QCed and adjusted on a daily basis by using And the raw daily rainfall data were QCed and adjusted on a daily basis by using SNHT (Alexandersson and Moberg (1997) and Vincent et al. (2002) approaches SNHT (Alexandersson and Moberg (1997) and Vincent et al. (2002) approaches

The adjusted daily data were converted in the following climate extreme indices The adjusted daily data were converted in the following climate extreme indices and analysed both on an annual and seasonal basisand analysed both on an annual and seasonal basis::

Exc. of Tmax/Tmin 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, CSDI, WSDIExc. of Tmax/Tmin 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, CSDI, WSDI

Fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, Greatest 1- and 5-Fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, Greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall, SDII90, 95 and 98, CDD days total rainfall, SDII90, 95 and 98, CDD

The development of regional climate extreme series has been achieved by The development of regional climate extreme series has been achieved by averaging daily series of indices and then adding back the base-period mean, averaging daily series of indices and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the Jones and Hulme (1996) method.according to the Jones and Hulme (1996) method.

Linear trends: Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s nonparametric method (Gilbert, Linear trends: Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s nonparametric method (Gilbert, 1987)1987)

PCA in S mode with the correlation matrix on a monthly scale and retaining those PCA in S mode with the correlation matrix on a monthly scale and retaining those PCs exceeding the 1 threshold of Kaiser’s rule and the inspection of the scree plots. PCs exceeding the 1 threshold of Kaiser’s rule and the inspection of the scree plots. The resulting PCs have been subjected to Varimax rotationThe resulting PCs have been subjected to Varimax rotation

EXPLORING TRENDS AND EXPLORING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN SOME SELECTED CHANGES IN SOME SELECTED

TEMPERATURE EXTREMES INDICES TEMPERATURE EXTREMES INDICES DURING THE 20TH CENTURY AND DURING THE 20TH CENTURY AND THE RECENT PERIOD OF FORCED THE RECENT PERIOD OF FORCED

WARMING OVER SPAIN (1973-WARMING OVER SPAIN (1973-2005)2005)

Changes in percentile based Changes in percentile based temperature indices (TX/TN2p, 5p, 10p, temperature indices (TX/TN2p, 5p, 10p,

90p, 95p and 98p) on annual basis and in 90p, 95p and 98p) on annual basis and in no. of daysno. of days

0

5

10

15

20

25

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

TX2p

TX5p

TX10p

Lineal

(TX10p)Lineal

(TX5p)Lineal

(TX2p)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

TX90p

TX95p

TX98p

Lineal(TX98p)Lineal(TX95p)Lineal(TX90p)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

TN2p

TN5p

TN10p

Lineal

(TN10p)Lineal

(TN5p)Lineal

(TN2p)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

TN90p

TN95

TN98

Comparing trends among indices Comparing trends among indices and periods (in ºC/decade)and periods (in ºC/decade)

IndicesIndices 1901-1901-20032003

1973-1973-20052005

TX2pTX2p -0.23***-0.23*** -0.70***-0.70***TX5pTX5p -0.51***-0.51*** -1.21***-1.21***TX10pTX10p -0.85***-0.85*** -2.04***-2.04***TX90pTX90p 0.83***0.83*** 3.11***3.11***TX95pTX95p 0.54***0.54*** 1.78***1.78***TX98pTX98p 0.28***0.28*** 0.68**0.68**TN2pTN2p -0.09+-0.09+ -1.15***-1.15***TN5pTN5p -0.26**-0.26** -1.84***-1.84***TN10pTN10p 0.51***0.51*** -2.70***-2.70***TN90pTN90p 0.59***0.59*** 3.74***3.74***TN95pTN95p 0.32***0.32*** 2.52***2.52***TN98pTN98p 0.16***0.16*** 1.34***1.34***

Long-term Spanish Long-term Spanish warming was driven warming was driven by highest reductions by highest reductions (increases) of (increases) of extremely cold extremely cold (warm) days than for (warm) days than for increases increases (reductions) of (reductions) of extremely warm extremely warm (cold) nights(cold) nights

Slight shift in this Slight shift in this pattern during 1973-pattern during 1973-2005: Larger 2005: Larger increases of warm increases of warm nights and days than nights and days than reductions in cold reductions in cold nights and daysnights and days

Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmax lower temperature extremes: Tmax lower

percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.14**/ - 0.03

- 0.32***/ - 0.14

- 0.64***/ - 0.66

Lineal (- 0.64***/ -0.66)Lineal (- 0.32***/ -0.14)Lineal (- 0.14**/ -0.03)

Spring

0

5

10

15

20

25

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.12***/ - 0.30**

- 0.35***/ - 1.05***

- 0.72***/ - 2.14***

Summer

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.16***/ - 0.63**

- 0.40***/ - 1.32**

- 0.79***/ - 2.24**

Lineal (- 0.79***/ -2.24**)Lineal (- 0.40***/ -1.32**)Lineal (- 0.16***/ -0.63**)

Autumn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.14***/ - 0.24*

- 0.39***/ - 0.78*

- 0.71***/ - 1.33*

Lineal (- 0.71***/ -1.33*)Lineal (- 0.39***/ -0.78*)Lineal (- 0.14***/ -0.24*)

Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmax upper temperature extremes: Tmax upper

percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

N D

ays

0.66***/0.85

0.38***/0.07

0.19***/ - 0.10

Spring

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.71***/4.0***

0.4***/2.53***

0.18**/1.18***

Summer

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.81***/4.77***

0.45***/3.10***

0.22***/1.74***

Lineal(0.22***/1.74***)Lineal(0.45***/3.10***)Lineal(0.81***/4.77***)

Autumn

0

5

10

15

20

25

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.57***/0.79

0.31***/0.63

0.13***/0.13

Lineal(0.13***/0.13)Lineal(0.31***/0.63)Lineal(0.57***/0.79)

Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmin upper temperature extremes: Tmin upper

percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.43**/ - 0.36

0.20**/ - 0.06

0.13**/0.01

Lineal(0.13**/0.01)Lineal (0.20**/ -0.06)Lineal (0.43**/ -0.36)

Spring

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.52**/4.37***

0.25**/2.54***

0.13*/1.31***

Summer

0

10

20

30

40

50

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.54**/6.86***

0.28*/4.27***

0.16*/2.45***

Lineal(0.16*/2.45***)Lineal(0.28*/4.27***)Lineal(0.54**/6.86***)

Autumn

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

N D

ays

0.47***/2.58**

0.23**/1.51**

0.10*/0.64**

Lineal(0.10*/0.64**)Lineal(0.23**/1.51**)Lineal(0.47***/2.58**)

Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmin lower temperature extremes: Tmin lower

percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.08*/ - 0.03

- 0.22*/0.07

- 0.43**/ - 0.15

Lineal (-0.43**/ - 0.15)Lineal (-0.22*/0.07)Lineal (- 0.08*/ -0.03)

Spring

0

5

10

15

20

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.06*/ - 0.24*- 0.18**/ - 0.79**Lineal (- 0.31**/ - 2.12***)

Summer

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

- 0.13***/ - 0.35**

- 0.27***/ - 0.90**

- 0.50***/ - 1.82**

Lineal (- 0.50***/ -1.82**)Lineal (- 0.27***/ -0.90**)Lineal (- 0.13***/ -0.35**)

Autumn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

N D

ays

- 0.08**/ - 0.49**

- 0.16**/ - 1.06***

- 0.32**/ - 2.19***

Lineal (- 0.32**/ -2.19***)Lineal (- 0.16**/ -1.06***)Lineal (- 0.08**/ -0.49**)

Spatial patterns for some temperature extreme indices: Number of very extremely colds days Tmax<2p. Trends in days/decade for 1901-2005 and 1973-2005. Bold (italic) indicates significance at 1% (5%) confidence level.

0.5 9

0 .1 2

0 .64

0 .26

0 .51

0 .3 5

0.6 3

0 .0 4

0 .4 6

0 .74

0.7 1

0 .5 5

0.2 9

0 .26

0 .6 9

0.7 6

0 .6 5

0 .54

0 .76

0.2 2

0.8 0 0 .76

0 .4 4

0 .31

0 .51

0 .04

0 .3 1

0.7 3

0 .50

0 .80

0.6 8

0 .14

0.3 6

0.5 3

0 .61

0.6 0

0 .22

0 .30

0 .12

0 .66

0.1 6

0 .2 9

0 .33 0.2 5

0.3 9

0 .7 9

0 .22

0 .70

0 .59

0 .2 0

0.1 2

0 .2 2

0 .0 9

0 .21

0.3 7

0 .3 0

0.5 3

0 .52

0 .5 0

0.1 2

0 .5 0

0 .25

0 .37

0.7 0

0.0 9 0 .44

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

-0.24/-0.65-0.24/-0.65

-0.21/-0.61-0.21/-0.61

-0.13/--0.13/-0.850.85

Number of Number of warm days warm days (daily TX > (daily TX >

90p)90p)

0.4 9

0 .3 0

0 .45

0 .67

0 .77

0 .3 8

0.4 8

0 .3 7

0 .2 7

0 .62

0.5 7

0 .6 4

0.2 1

0 .29

0 .7 1

0.5 2

0 .6 6

0 .44

0 .66

0.4 6

0.6 6 0 .63

0.4 2

0 .3 6

0 .72

0 .14

0 .48

0 .7 1

0.5 6

0 .6 6

0 .8 0

0 .42

0.4 9

0 .4 0

0.4 0

0 .41

0 .4 8

0.6 6

0 .3 2

0 .71

0 .46

0.2 0

0.5 8 0 .47

0.6 0

0 .7 1

0 .29

0 .65

0 .29

0 .4 1

0.4 1

0 .5 0

0 .3 5

0 .42

0.3 1

0 .4 3

0.7 4

0 .74

0 .3 7

0.2 6

0 .3 9

0 .39

0 .32

0.7 3

0.2 6 0 .52

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

0.82/2.980.82/2.98

0.81/2.970.81/2.97

0.74/2.850.74/2.85

Number of Number of very warm very warm nights TN > nights TN >

95p95p

0.5 5

0 .7 5

0 .24

0 .76

0 .51

0 .3 1

0.5 7

0 .1 7

0 .3 3

0 .71

0.3 2

0 .4 4

0.4 8

0 .76

0 .6 6

- 0.0 3

0 .4 5

0 .63

0 .42

0.7 3

0.5 4 0 .67

0.6 2

0 .5 3

0 .68

0 .27

0 .31

0 .6 8

0.5 9

0 .7 8

0 .7 2

0 .13

0.2 4

0 .6 6

0.6 6

0 .46

0 .2 3

0.3 4

0 .2 1

0 .66

0 .45

0.5 1

0.3 0 0 .45

0.2 4

0 .1 6

0 .52

0 .36

0 .65

0 .3 0

0.1 4

0 .3 4

0 .4 1

0 .36

0.6 7

0 .4 4

0.2 5

0 .11

0 .4 6

0.8 3

0 .6 7

0 .22

0 .56

0.2 1

0.6 0 0 .38

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

- 3

- 1

1

3

5

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

0.41/3.500.41/3.50

0.44/2.730.44/2.73

0.200.20//1.701.70

Annual changes in the duration of warm Annual changes in the duration of warm and cold spellsand cold spells (WSDI and CSDI in n. (WSDI and CSDI in n.

days/decade)days/decade)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

0.44/3.96

- 0.48/ - 0.78

Lineal (- 0.48/ -0.78)Lineal(0.44/3.96)

EXPLORING TRENDS AND EXPLORING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION

EXTREMES OCCURRENCEEXTREMES OCCURRENCE

Annual changes of very (R>95p) and Annual changes of very (R>95p) and very extremely wets (R>98p) days very extremely wets (R>98p) days ((in in

mm/decade)mm/decade)

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

mm

R95:2.25*/ - 0.44

R98:1.75*/1.33

Lineal(R98:1.75*/1.33)Lineal (R95:2.25*/ -0.44)

Seasonal changes in the fraction of Seasonal changes in the fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th precipitation above of the 90th, 95th

and 98th percentiles and 98th percentiles ((in %/decade)in %/decade)WINTER

0

20

40

60

80

100

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

%

0.17/0.73

0.46*/0.98

0.06/ - 0.91

Lineal (0.06/ -0.91)Lineal(0.46*/0.98)Lineal(0.17/0.73)

SPRING

0

20

40

60

80

100

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

%

- 0.11/0.10

0.10/1.70

0.38*/ - 0.08

Lineal (0.38*/ -0.08)Lineal(0.10/1.70)Lineal (-0.11/0.10)

SUMMER

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

%

- 0.42**/ - 1.37*

- 0.08/ - 1.92

- 0.13/ - 1.81

Lineal (- 0.13/ - 1.81)

Lineal (- 0.08/ - 1.92)

Lineal (- 0.42**/ -1.37*)

AUTUMN

0

20

40

60

80

100

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

%

- 0.05/1.29

- 0.15/1.85

- 0.15/ - 1.12

Lineal (-0.15/ - 1.12)Lineal (-0.15/1.85)Lineal (-0.05/1.29)

Changes in the greatest 1- and 5-days Changes in the greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall total rainfall (trends(trends in mm/decade)in mm/decade)

0

30

60

90

120

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

mm

R1day:0.27/0.05

R5days:1.20***/0.54

Seasonal changes in daily rainfall Seasonal changes in daily rainfall intensity above the 90th, 95th and intensity above the 90th, 95th and

98th percentiles98th percentiles (SDII) (SDII)Winter

0

10

20

30

40

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

mm

0.17***/ - 0.22

0.28***/0.29

0.39***/0.05

Spring

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

mm

0.10**/0.04

0.12*/0.04

0.20*/0.32

Lineal(0.20*/0.32)Lineal(0.12*/0.04)Lineal(0.10**/0.04)

Summer

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

mm

- 0.11*/ - 0.54*

- 0.14*/ - 0.93*

- 0.09/ - 1.07*

Lineal (- 0.09/ -1.07*)Lineal (- 0.14*/ -0.93*)Lineal (- 0.11*/ -0.54*)

Autumn

0

10

20

30

40

50

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

mm

0.08/ - 0.24

0.07/ - 0.09

0.09/ - 0.56

Lineal (0.09/ -0.56)Lineal (0.07/ -0.09)Lineal (0.08/ -0.24)

Annual and seasonal changes in the Annual and seasonal changes in the no. of consecutive dry days (CDD)no. of consecutive dry days (CDD)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1901

1921

1941

1961

1981

2001

N D

ays

W:- 0.08/1.69

Sp:- 0.034**/1.29*

Su:- 0.95***/0.39

Au:- 0.28*/- 1.09

An:0.03/0.42

THANKS!!THANKS!!

ANY QUESTIONS?ANY QUESTIONS?