Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● Oil prices rise as producers commit to output restraint

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

● Fed policy makers, like lawmakers, split on need for more fiscal aid

● Budget will increase rural consumption, boost economy - India Inc

Dollar hovers near seven-week

high after boost from euro

selloff

● US manufacturing activity slowed slightly in January

● Gold prices plunge as customs duty cut in Budget 2021

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

47% 69% 58%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

The FM delivered an expansionary and a demand stimulating budget yesterday. While

the equity markets rejoiced, nervousness was evident in the bond markets. The fiscal

deficit at 9.5% of GDP for FY21 was much higher than estimates of 7-7.5% of GDP.

The fiscal deficit target of 6.8% for FY22 was also much higher than estimates of

around 5.2-5.5% of GDP. The return on the path to fiscal consolidation also seems

more gradual than what the markets would have anticipated with the government

looking to bring the fiscal deficit below 4.5% only by FY 2026. The Bond market got

spooked on account of the higher borrowing and sold off. The yield on the

benchmark 10y was up 14bps at 6.08%. There was in fact a parallel shift across the

curve. The 3y and 5y OIS too have got paid 15bps each. Equity markets were buoyed

by the fact that the government seemed to have got the prioritization right as far as

expenditure was concerned. An increase in share of CAPEX as part of total

expenditure was a welcome move considering the forward and backward linkages

and the multiplier impact on growth that it has. Equities staged a phenomenal rally

with the Nifty ending 4.7% higher and the Bank Nifty gaining 8.6%. Rupee to trade in

a 72.90-73.20 range.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover a part of their exposure on upticks to 73.80-

73.90. Importers are advised to cover through options. The 3M range for USDINR is

72.50 – 74.40 and the 6M range is 73.00 – 76.00.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

Focus this week to

be on the BOE

Monetary Policy &

RBI Monetary Policy

1.1450-1.2000 ↑

Q1 FY 2021-22

0.7200- 0.7600

91.20- 95.50

1.3100-1.3600 ↑ 1.3400-1.4000 ↑

0.7150- 0.7650 ↑

95.00- 100.00 ↓ 95.00- 100.00 ↓

$1700- $2200 ↑

1.1600-1.2150 ↑

1.3500-1.4150 ↑

73.00 - 77.00 ↑

0.7200- 0.7600

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

103.00 - 106.00 ↓

Q2 FY 2021-22

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.2020 - 1.2120)

Despite the robust release of manufacturing data from the country,

Sterling plunged. Reason behind the same could be attributed to surge

in US Dollar Index. Going forward, Pound shall again bounce back

majorly due to the fast vaccination process which shall keep the

sentiments boosted. Focus to be on the BoE Policy to guage the path

of interest rates in future.

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.3640 - 1.3750)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2021-22

FX Outlook for the day

● USDINR (RANGE - 72.90 - 73.20)

Yen weakened towards 105.05 levels as US Dollar Index move towards

north owing to sharp selling seen in Euro currency. Japanese Yen is

likely to trade in a range bound manner with a slight positive bias

tracking the positive trading in Asian equities along with the robust

release of inflation data from the nation. Slight reversal in DXY shall

add to Yen's strength.

Rupee made a flat opening at 73.02 levels and is likely to trade in a

range bound manner with a slight positive bias tracking the robust

sentiments in Asian and domestic equities. 72.75-73.50 range to

continue in Rupee until the monetary policy on Friday. However, the

RBI would continue supporting USDINR on dips. Moreover, fall in

global dollar could work in favour of the Rupee.

Euro plunged sharply yesterday pushing the DXY higher after

coronavirus lockdowns choked consumer spending in Europe’s biggest

economy. German retail sales plunged by more than forecast in

December, with the continent still struggling with vaccine rollouts.

Euro to continue with its bearish move owing to the above reasons.

DXY has erased slight gains benefitting Euro.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 104.40 - 105.00)

Q4 FY 2020-21

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT February 2, 2021

72.50-74.90

1.3125-1.3650 ↑

0.7150-0.7750 ↑

73.00-76.00

$1800- $2000 ↑

73.00-76.00

$1700- $2200 ↑

107.00-112.00 106.00-111.00

1.1700-1.2200 ↑

89.00 - 93.00 ↓

1.1950-1.2350 ↑

$1800- $2100 ↑

104.00-108.00 ↓

“

”

“

”

“

”

Chart of the DayUSDINR: 73.02

USDINR made a flat opening today at 73.02 levels.

Immediate resistance to be at 73.35 (Super trend). On

the flipside, 72.50 is an extremely crucial support, break

of which could trigger stops. Major technical indicators

suggest neutral view for intraday.

FIIs have so far

infused $30.29

billion in the

Financial year 2020-

21

Activity Kurtosis

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

February 2, 2021

● USDINR Open Interest (February expiry )

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

Highest OI for Call &

Put is seen at 74.00

& 73.00. Highest OI

intraday buildup for

Call is seen at 73.00

& for Put is seen at

74.00.

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 0.08 0.11 0.22 0.31 USDINR 0.24 0.98 3.59 7.26

EUR -0.59 -0.58 -0.53 -0.51 EURINR 0.33 1.36 5.12 10.43

JPY 0.04 -0.06 -0.06 0.04 GBPINR 0.33 1.39 5.15 10.38

JPYINR 0.24 1.00 3.77 7.74

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 29422 1.83 1855.63 -1.44 -0.08

3524 0.55 28.39 -0.08 -0.28

28324 0.83 54.17 0.62 1.16

INDIA 49858 2.59 90.87 -0.11 -0.12

14646 2.56 109.34 0.11 0.10

5462 1.16

13622 1.41 FY 2020-21 CY 2021 1-Feb-21

6466 0.92 2,33,419 15,129 -4,344

US 30212 0.76 -22,403 -5,351 -526

13403 2.55 10,175 -20 -3

2,21,191 9,758 -4,873

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2USDINR 72.60 72.77 72.96 73.13 73.32

EURINR 87.49 87.99 88.44 88.94 89.39

GBPINR 98.73 99.37 99.88 100.52 101.03

JPYINR 68.93 69.28 69.85 70.20 70.77

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

30-Jan EUR 12:30 AM -9.6% -2.0% 1.9% Bearish

GBP 3:00 PM 54.10 52.9 52.9 Bullish

USD 8:30 PM 58.7 60.0 60.7 Bearish

2-Feb GBP 12:30 PM 0.3% 0.8%

EUR 1:15 PM 0.0% 0.2%

USD 3:30 PM -0.9% 12.5%

CAC

DAX

Major Global Rates

LIBOR Rates

COMMODITIES/DIGLOBAL INDICES

Quick Glance

FPI INFLOWS

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)

Brent ($/brl)

SILVER ($/ounce)

HANG SENG

SHANGHAI

NIKKEI

SENSEX

NIFTY

February 2, 2021

Dollar INDEX

Rolling Forward Premiums (in paise)

Figures are in INR Crores

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

German Retail Sales MoM

ISM Manufacturing PMI

DEBT

French Prelim CPI MoM

Prelim Flash GDP QoQ

FTSE

Nationwide HPI MoM

Final Manufacturing PMI

Pivot Points

HYBRID

EURINR pair is likely to take immediate

support at 87.99 (S1)

DOW

NASDAQ

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments.

Headquarters:-

India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd.H-125, 1st Floor, Kanakia Zillion, LBS Marg,

CST Road Junction, BandraKurla Complex Annexe, Kurla West,Mumbai-400070

For further Information on FX advisory services,Contact us at :91 8879390076

Or you can mail us on: info@ifaglobal.netYou can also visit our website: www.ifaglobal.net