London's Economy Today November 2011
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Transcript of London's Economy Today November 2011
London’s Economy TodayIssue 111 | November 2011
UK economy grew in Q3 2011 but Eurozone problems cloud the horizonBy Christopher Lewis, Senior Economist, and Gordon Douglass, Economist
According to the second estimate of GDP from the Offi ce for National Statistics (ONS), the third quarter of 2011 saw UK GDP rise by 0.5 per cent (see Figure 1). This compares to an expansion of 0.1 per cent in Q2 2011. GDP is now still about 4 per cent below its pre recession peak.
In their preliminary estimate the ONS noted that “the interpretation of the estimate for Q3 is complicated by the special events in Q2 (for example, the additional bank holiday in April for the royal wedding), which are likely to have depressed activity in that quarter”. They observe that if Q2 and Q3 2011 are looked at together then GDP has grown by 0.6 per cent in the last two quarters combined. They further note that “there is no evidence that the riots in August had any signifi cant impact on GDP for Q3”.
In this issue
UK economy grew in Q3 2011 but Eurozone problems cloud the horizon .......................1
Latest news ......................1
Economic indicators .........5
Latest news... Employment and Population in London – New History, New Futures seminar Thursday 15 December 2011, 9.00am-12.30pm at City Hall, London SE1 2A The past changes almost as much as the future as new statistics emerge and new categories are developed. Recently, employment statistics have taken on board a new Industrial Classifi cation, refl ecting industries which did not even exist a few decades ago. This seminar brings to you new historical estimates of how London looked on the basis of these new sectors. Alongside this we also look at what this means for the future, for the balance between employment and population and how it is refl ected in productivity estimates. Bridget Rosewell, Chief Economic Advisor to the GLA, will be chairing the event.
To book your place, please register at http://15decemberemploymentandpopulationinlondon.eventbrite.co.uk/ or email [email protected] The event will be free of charge and places are strictly limited.
London’s Economy Today (LET) data to Datastore
The LET presence on Datastore aims to create more interaction and a greater personal focus for London’s Economy Today while also allowing for the incorporation of feedback and views from the readership.
http://data.london.gov.uk/londons-economy-today
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Figure 1: UK GDP Growth
Source: Offi ce for National Statistics
The sectoral breakdown of the Q3 GDP fi gure shows that overall growth was dampened by a contraction in output in the construction sector which fell by 0.2 per cent in Q3 2011, after increasing by 1.1 per cent in Q2 2011. Output in the production industries grew by 0.4 per cent in Q3 2011, after falling by 1.2 per cent in Q2 2011. Total output in the services sector grew by 0.6 per cent in Q3 2011, after growing by 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter. Output in business services and fi nance (a sector of importance to London) increased by 1.0 per cent in Q3 2011 compared to 0.3 per cent in Q2 2011. GDP was 0.5 per cent higher in Q3 2011 compared with Q3 2010. Between Q3 2010 and Q3 2011 construction output fell 3.6 per cent, production industries output fell by 0.8 per cent whilst services sector output grew by 1.2 per cent (and within this, business services and fi nance grew by 1.2 per cent).
Turmoil in the EurozoneOn 27 October the Eurozone leaders agreed the outline to a three-pronged solution to the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The exact details are still being negotiated but the plan would likely involve something like the following: recapitalising Eurozone banks by just over €100bn by June 2012; private sector creditors (mainly banks) agreeing to write off 50 per cent of Greek sovereign debt; and leveraging up the resources of the bailout fund (the European Financial Stability Facility) to probably in the region of €1 trillion. Markets initially reacted positively to this news but political events in Greece and Italy quickly unsettled matters causing many Eurozone countries sovereign debt bond spreads over German bonds to rise (see Figure 2). Meanwhile the interest rate on UK government bonds has been falling to levels matching German government bonds.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970
Q1
1971
Q3
1973
Q1
1974
Q3
1976
Q1
1977
Q3
1979
Q1
1980
Q3
1982
Q1
1983
Q3
1985
Q1
1986
Q3
1988
Q1
1989
Q3
1991
Q1
1992
Q3
1994
Q1
1995
Q3
1997
Q1
1998
Q3
2000
Q1
2001
Q3
2003
Q1
2004
Q3
2006
Q1
2007
Q3
2009
Q1
2010
Q3
year-on-year % change % change on previous quarter
%
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3
On 1 November the Greek PM announced that Greece would hold a referendum on the rescue package which put the whole deal in jeopardy. However that policy was later reversed and a coalition government was formed before national elections are held, probably in February 2012. Problems were not confi ned to Greece with mounting concerns about the size of Italian government debt pushing its borrowing costs up to levels seen for Irish and Portuguese bonds just before they were bailed out. The situation was calmed slightly by the resignation of the Italian prime minister after the passing of a new austerity package and the forming of a new government over the weekend of 12-13 November. Nervousness about Spanish sovereign debt has also risen. Spain experienced zero output growth in Q3 2011 and has seen the cost of its borrowing reach unsustainable levels if it does not fall back. Meanwhile France has had to announce plans for further budget savings in 2012 and 2013 in an attempt to reassure markets and maintain its AAA sovereign debt rating. The ongoing sovereign debt crisis has led the European Union to downgrade its growth forecast in 2012 for the Eurozone to 0.5 per cent. In Q3 2011 output in the Eurozone only grew by 0.2 per cent (slower than in the UK). In response to this deteriorating growth outlook the European Central Bank cut interest rates in November to 1.25 per cent from 1.5 per cent and further cuts seem likely.
Growth expected to be slow in most developed countriesThe Bank of England stated in its November Infl ation Report that “the prospects for the UK economy have worsened … concerns about the solvency of several euro-area governments intensifi ed, increasing strains in banking and some sovereign funding markets. Household and business confi dence fell, both at home and abroad. These factors, along with the fi scal consolidation and squeeze on households’ real incomes, are likely to weigh heavily on UK growth in the near term”. Elsewhere the CBI has downgraded its UK growth forecast to 0.9 per cent in 2011 and 1.2 per cent in 2012. Internationally the OECD has reduced its growth forecasts with them now forecasting US growth of 1.7 per cent in 2011, 1.8 per cent in 2012 and 2.5 per cent in 2013. Eurozone growth is forecast at 1.6 per cent in 2011, 0.3 per cent in 2012 and 1.5 per cent in 2013. With regard to a crisis in the Eurozone that spread to other countries the OECD stated that “a deterioration of fi nancial conditions of the magnitude observed during the global crisis (between the latter half of 2007 and the fi rst quarter of 2009) could lead to a drop in the level of GDP in some of the major OECD economies of up to 5% by the fi rst half of 2013“.
Figure 2: Ten-year government bond
spreads over German government bonds,
percentage points
Last data point: 23/11/2011
Source: EcoWin
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
02/0
1/20
08
02/0
3/20
08
02/0
5/20
08
02/0
7/20
08
02/0
9/20
08
02/1
1/20
08
02/0
1/20
09
02/0
3/20
09
02/0
5/20
09
02/0
7/20
09
02/0
9/20
09
02/1
1/20
09
02/0
1/20
10
02/0
3/20
10
02/0
5/20
10
02/0
7/20
10
02/0
9/20
10
02/1
1/20
10
02/0
1/20
11
02/0
3/20
11
02/0
5/20
11
02/0
7/20
11
02/0
9/20
11
02/1
1/20
11
Greece Spain Portugal Ireland Italy UK France
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Near term outlook for London’s economy now weaker than earlier this yearThe New West End Company reported that year-on-year sales in the West End in October were down 4.1 per cent partially in response to the warm weather hindering the sale of winter stock. However it noted that “the Eurozone crisis and global slow-down in consumer confi dence is also evident in softer retail sales, with shoppers keeping a tighter hold on their wallets”. Looking at the global prospects for jobs growth the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in its World of Work Report 2011 observed that for the world economy “the latest indicators suggest that the employment slowdown has already started to materialize”. Meanwhile the OECD has said that every economy that it monitors slowed in September.
With the crisis in the Eurozone failing to be laid to rest it is the single biggest risk to the UK and London’s economic recoveries. The outlook for growth in the UK and London are subdued. Overall the Eurozone crisis is impacting negatively on business confi dence in London. It is also increasing turbulence in inter-bank lending markets which is raising the likelihood of another serious credit crunch. The supply of lending to London households and businesses in these circumstances would be restricted sharply, severely dampening economic prospects. In addition if the Eurozone heads into a recession this will adversely impact on London’s trade. Fortunately the capital is a global city so can take advantage of robust growth in emerging markets such as China. However it is not possible to completely shield itself from cold economic winds blowing across the Eurozone.
5
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Economic indicatorsIncrease in moving average of passenger numbers The most recent 28 day period is from
18 September 2011 to 15 October 2011. Adjusted for odd days, London’s Underground and buses had 285.4 million passenger journeys; 193.6 million by bus and 91.9 million by Underground.
The moving average of passengers every period increased to 263.6 million from 263.0 million in the previous period. The moving average for buses was 177.0 million. The moving average for the Underground was 86.5 million.
The methodology used to calculate the number of bus passenger journeys was changed by TfL from 1 April 2007. For a detailed explanation please see LET issue 58 (June 2007).
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
Source: Transport for London
Passenger numbersjourneys (millions) adjusted for odd days
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
London Underground Bus (pre 1 April '07 method) Bus (new method)London Underground moving average Bus moving average (pre 1 April '07 method) Bus moving average (new method)
millions
Source: Transport for London
Average annual growth rate of passengers remains unchangedThe moving average annual rate of growth
in passenger journeys has remained constant at 2.0% from the previous period.
The moving average annual rate of growth in bus passenger journey numbers has remained constant at 1.5% from the previous period.
The moving average annual rate of growth in Underground passenger journey numbers fell to 3.1% from 3.2% in the previous period.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
Annual % change in passengers using London Underground and busesadjusted for odd days
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
London Underground BusesUnderground plus bus London Underground moving averageBuses moving average LU and buses moving average
%
Source: Claimant Count, Nomis
Claimant count unemployment The percentage of the resident working
age population who are unemployed and claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance (seasonally adjusted) in London was 4.4% in October 2011.
There were 236,700 seasonally adjusted unemployment claimants in London in October 2011 compared with a downwardly revised 235,100 in September 2011.
There were 1,598,400 seasonally adjusted unemployment claimants in the UK in October 2011 compared with a downwardly revised 1,593,100 in September 2011.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
Claimant count unemployment % of working age population, seasonally adjusted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1997
Jan
1998
Jan
1999
Jan
2000
Jan
2001
Jan
2002
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
%
London UK
6
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Source: Experian Economics
Faster annual output growth in London than in the UK in Q2 2011London’s annual growth in output
decreased to 1.5% in Q2 2011 from 2.5% in Q1 2011.
Annual output growth in the UK decreased to 0.8% in Q2 2011 from 1.7% in Q1 2011.
In Q2 2011 London’s annual growth rate was faster than in the UK as a whole.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: February 2012
Real GVA growth in London and the UK year-on-year change
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1983
q1
1984
q1
1985
q1
1986
q1
1987
q1
1988
q1
1989
q1
1990
q1
1991
q1
1992
q1
1993
q1
1994
q1
1995
q1
1996
q1
1997
q1
1998
q1
1999
q1
2000
q1
2001
q1
2002
q1
2003
q1
2004
q1
2005
q1
2006
q1
2007
q1
2008
q1
2009
q1
2010
q1
2011
q1
%
London UK
Source: Experian Economics
Positive annual employment growth in London in Q2 2011 London’s annual employment growth
increased to 1.0% in Q2 2011 from -0.6% in Q1 2011.
Annual employment growth in the UK decreased to -0.4% in Q2 2011 from 0.1% in Q1 2011.
In Q2 2011 London’s annual employment growth was positive whilst that of the UK as a whole was negative.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: February 2012
Full-time equivalent employment in the UK and Londonyear-on-year growth from quarterly figures
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1989
q1
1990
q1
1991
q1
1992
q1
1993
q1
1994
q1
1995
q1
1996
q1
1997
q1
1998
q1
1999
q1
2000
q1
2001
q1
2002
q1
2003
q1
2004
q1
2005
q1
2006
q1
2007
q1
2008
q1
2009
q1
2010
q1
2011
q1
%
London UK
Source: Halifax house price index
Annual house price infl ation rising in London as measured by the Halifax House prices, as measured by the Halifax,
were higher in Q3 2011 than in Q3 2010 in London but not in the UK.
Annual house price infl ation in London was 2.3% in Q3 2011, up from -1.2% in Q2 2011.
Annual house price infl ation in the UK was -2.2% in Q3 2011, up from -3.5% in Q2 2011.
Latest release: October 2011Next release: January 2012
House prices, UK and Londonyear-on-year growth from quarterly figures, seasonally adjusted data
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1989
q1
1989
q3
1990
q1
1990
q3
1991
q1
1991
q3
1992
q1
1992
q3
1993
q1
1993
q3
1994
q1
1994
q3
1995
q1
1995
q3
1996
q1
1996
q3
1997
q1
1997
q3
1998
q1
1998
q3
1999
q1
1999
q3
2000
q1
2000
q3
2001
q1
2001
q3
2002
q1
2002
q3
2003
q1
2003
q3
2004
q1
2004
q3
2005
q1
2005
q3
2006
q1
2006
q3
2007
q1
2007
q3
2008
q1
2008
q3
2009
q1
2009
q3
2010
q1
2010
q3
2011
q1
2011
q3
London UK
%
7
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Source: Markit Economics
London’s business activity just increasingLondon fi rms increased their output of
goods and services in October 2011.The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
of business activity recorded 50.4 in October 2011 compared to 54.4 in September 2011.
A rate of above 50 on the index indicates an increase in business activity from the previous month.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
Business activity in Londonseasonally adjusted index (50 indicates no change on previous month)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-
97
May
-97
Sep-
97
Jan-
98
May
-98
Sep-
98
Jan-
99
May
-99
Sep-
99
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep-
00
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep-
01
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep-
02
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep-
03
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-
04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-
05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-
06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-
07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-
08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep-
09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-
10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-
11
index
London
Source: Markit Economics
New orders in London risingOctober 2011 saw an increase in new
orders for London fi rms.The PMI for new orders recorded 52.9
in October 2011 compared to 56.8 in September 2011.
A rate of above 50 on the index indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
New orders in Londonseasonally adjusted index (50 indicates no change on previous month)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-
97M
ay-9
7Se
p-97
Jan-
98M
ay-9
8Se
p-98
Jan-
99M
ay-9
9Se
p-99
Jan-
00M
ay-0
0Se
p-00
Jan-
01M
ay-0
1Se
p-01
Jan-
02M
ay-0
2Se
p-02
Jan-
03M
ay-0
3Se
p-03
Jan-
04M
ay-0
4Se
p-04
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5Se
p-05
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
index
London
Source: Markit Economics
Businesses report slightly higher employment in OctoberThe PMI shows that the level of
employment in London fi rms increased slightly in October 2011.
The PMI for the level of employment was 50.3 in October compared to 51.0 in September 2011.
A rate of above 50 on the index indicates an increase in the level of employment from the previous month.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
Level of employment in Londonseasonally adjusted index (50 indicates no change on previous month)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-
97M
ay-9
7Se
p-97
Jan-
98M
ay-9
8Se
p-98
Jan-
99M
ay-9
9Se
p-99
Jan-
00M
ay-0
0Se
p-00
Jan-
01M
ay-0
1Se
p-01
Jan-
02M
ay-0
2Se
p-02
Jan-
03M
ay-0
3Se
p-03
Jan-
04M
ay-0
4Se
p-04
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5Se
p-05
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
index
London
8
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Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
Surveyors report that house prices are rising in London The RICS survey shows a positive net
balance of 41 for London house prices over the three months to October 2011.
Surveyors reported a negative net house price balance for England and Wales of -24 over the three months to October 2011.
London’s net house price balance is higher than that of England and Wales.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
RICS housing market survey net balance in London and in England and Wales; seasonally adjusted data
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan
-00
Ap
r-0
0
Jul-
00
Oct
-00
Jan
-01
Ap
r-0
1
Jul-
01
Oct
-01
Jan
-02
Ap
r-0
2
Jul-
02
Oct
-02
Jan
-03
Ap
r-0
3
Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-0
4
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-0
5
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-0
6
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
London net balance England and Wales net balance
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
Surveyors expect house prices to rise in London The RICS survey shows that surveyors
expect house prices in London to rise over the next three months but to continue to fall in England and Wales.
The net house price expectations balance in London was 6 in October 2011.
For England and Wales, the net house price expectations balance was -22 in October 2011.
Latest release: November 2011Next release: December 2011
RICS housing market survey house price expectations; net balance in London, and in England and Wales;
seasonally adjusted data
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan
-00
Ap
r-0
0
Jul-
00
Oct
-00
Jan
-01
Ap
r-0
1
Jul-
01
Oct
-01
Jan
-02
Ap
r-0
2
Jul-
02
Oct
-02
Jan
-03
Ap
r-0
3
Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-0
4
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-0
5
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-0
6
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
London net balance England and Wales net balance
Source: GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission
Consumer confi dence remains negative The GfK index of consumer confi dence
refl ects people’s views on their fi nancial position and the general economic situation over the past year and their expectations for the next 12 months (including whether now is a good time to make major purchases). A score below zero signifi es negative views of the economy.
For Greater London the consumer confi dence score increased to -24 in October 2011 from -27 in September 2011.
For the UK the consumer confi dence score decreased to -32 in October 2011 from -30 in September 2011.
Latest release: October 2011Next release: November 2011
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Feb
-05
Jun
-05
Oct
-05
Feb
-06
Jun
-06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun
-07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
Jun
-08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun
-09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun
-10
Oct
-10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct
-11
Greater London UK
Consumer confidence barometer score
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Additional information
Data sourcesTube and bus ridership Transport for London on 020 7222 5600 or email: enquire@tfl .gov.ukGVA growth Experian Economics on 020 7746 8260Unemployment rates www.statistics.gov.uk
GlossaryCivilian workforce jobs Measures jobs at the workplace rather than where workers live. This indicator captures total
employment in the London economy, including commuters.Claimant count unemployment Unemployment based on the number of people claiming unemployment benefi ts.Employee jobs Civilian jobs, including employees paid by employers running a PAYE scheme. Government
employees and people on training schemes are included if they have a contract of employment. Armed forces are excluded.
Gross domestic product (GDP) A measure of the total economic activity in the economy.Gross value added (GVA) Used in the estimation of GDP. The link between GVA and GDP is that GVA plus taxes on
products minus subsidies on products is equal to GDP.Tube ridership Transport for London’s measure of the number of passengers using London Underground in a
given period. There are 13 periods in a year. In 2011/12 there are eleven 28-day periods, one 27-day period and one 30-day period. Period 1 started on 1 April 2011.
Bus ridership Transport for London’s measure of the number of passengers using buses in London in a given period. There are 13 periods in a year. In 2011/12 there are eleven 28-day periods, one 27-day period and one 30-day period. Period 1 started on 1 April 2011.
AcronymsABI Annual Business InquiryBAA British Airports AuthorityBCC British Chamber of CommerceCAA Civil Aviation AuthorityCBI Confederation of British IndustryCLG Communities and Local GovernmentGDP Gross domestic productGVA Gross value addedILO International Labour Organisation
IMF International Monetary FundLCCI London Chamber of Commerce and IndustryLET London’s Economy TodayMPC Monetary Policy CommitteeONS Offi ce for National StatisticsPMI Purchasing Managers’ IndexPWC PricewaterhouseCoopersRICS Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
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