Logistical VerificationLogistical VerificationForecast Services in IHFSForecast Services in IHFS

Mary MulluskyMary Mullusky

RFC Verification Workshop, August 14-16 2007

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OutlineOutline

• Logistical Verification Measures

• Forecast Services

• Attributes of Forecast Services

• Forecast Services GUI Demo

• Future

• Lab Exercise

• Review Lab and Questions

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Logistical Verification Logistical Verification MeasuresMeasures

• What are logistical verification measures?

– Measures that evaluate the overall quality of a forecast service

– Typically measure non-skill attributes

– Answer questions like

What new types of forecasts have been developed?

Is the number of forecast points increasing or decreasing?

Have computational improvements reduced the effort to issue a forecast?

Have methodological improvements reduced the time it takes to prepare a basin for forecasting

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Logistical Verification Logistical Verification MeasuresMeasures

• A comprehensive description of service efficiency include the following logistical verification measures:

– Characterizing point forecasts by service type, frequency and location (Forecast Services)

– Characterizing areal forecasts by service type, frequency and location

– Identifying daily the number of issued forecasts by type and location

– Quantifying the person effort required to set up a basin for forecasting, including data gathering, calibration, model setup and implementation efforts

– Quantifying the person effort required to issue each type of forecast, including manual quality control of input data, forecaster run-time modifications and forecaster review and analysis

– Quantifying the timeliness of issued forecasts

• Goal is to standardize and automate the collection of these measures

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Forecast Point ServicesForecast Point Services

• Forecast Services measure what hydrologic services the NWS provides; where these services are provided; and how often.

• The types of forecast services include:– Data Point Service: all locations on a river/stream for which

observed data is input to RFC or WFO hydrologic forecast procedures, or included in public hydrologic products. For the purposes of logistical verification, all locations along a river or stream for which hydrologic forecast and warning services are provided (i.e., forecast points) should be included as a data service.

– Deterministic Forecast Service: all forecast points for which a single-value forecast is produced

– Ensemble Forecast Service: all forecast points for which ensemble forecasting is used to generate forecasts and associated uncertainty information.

– Water Supply Forecast Service: all forecast points for which water supply forecasts are provided

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Forecast Point ServicesForecast Point Services

• These four Forecast Services tables (Data Point Service, Deterministic Forecast Service, Ensemble Forecast Service, Water Supply Forecast Service) are included in OB8.1 IHFS-DB – Data Service table is initially populated with records in the

IngestFilter which have pe codes = H* OR Q*  AND ts codes = F* AND have their lid's appear in the RiverStat table

• RFC personnel will be responsible for populating and maintaining all forecast services information for each lid in the RFC area of responsibility

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Attributes of Forecast ServicesAttributes of Forecast ServicesData Point Service (Data and Forecast Points)Data Point Service (Data and Forecast Points)

lid location id

flood_thres user defined flood threshold

exceed_prob From a historical analysis, the probability of exceeding the user defined flood threshold. (%)

service_type service type (data or forecast service)

anal_start_date start date for the historical analysis of the exceedance probability for a given flood threshold

anal_end_date end date for the historical analysis of the exceedance probability for a given flood threshold

impl_date date observed data first used as input to RFC hydrologic procedures

web_date date observed hydrograph first available on web

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Attributes of Forecast ServicesAttributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast ServiceDeterministic Forecast Service

lid location id

snow_method snow computational method for the segment

hydrol_method hydrologic computation method for the segment

reservoir_model reservoir model for the segment

upstream_seg location id of upstream point. Upstream point may be forecast or data point. If current segment is a headwater, then this value is set to ‘xxxxx’.

hydraul_method Routing computational method for the segment

def_issue_crit Minimum issuance criteria for the forecast service

hours_qpf hours of QPF used in streamflow forecast

frequpd_normal normal operations update frequency

frequpd_flood flood operations update frequency

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Attributes of Forecast ServicesAttributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service (cont’d)Deterministic Forecast Service (cont’d)

frequpd_drought Drought operations update frequency

fcst_horizon forecast horizon

hours_qtf hours of temperature forecast used in streamflow forecast

hours_qzf hours of freezing level forecast used in streamflow forecast

num_elev_zones number of elevation zones in mountainous area may be 1,2 or 3 else should be set to 1

consumptive_use indicates consumptive use model is used for the segment (Y or N)

channel_loss indicates channel loss model is used for the segment (Y or N)

fcst_gen_method forecast generation method

impl_date date service was first produce

web_date date official forecast hydrograph first available on AHPS website

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Attributes of Forecast ServicesAttributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast ServiceEnsemble Forecast Service

lid location id

snow_method snow computation method for the segment

hydrol_method hydrologic computation method for the segment

reservoir_model reservoir model for the segment

upstream_seg location id of upstream point. Upstream point may be forecast or data point. If current segment is a headwater, then this value is set to ‘xxxxx’.

hydraul_method routing computation method for the segment

flowtype flow type

fcsttype forecast time horizon type

frequpd_normal normal operations period of issuance

frequpd_flood flood operations period of issuance

frequpd_drought drought operations period of issuance

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Attributes of Forecast ServicesAttributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service (cont’d)Ensemble Forecast Service (cont’d)

fcst_horizon forecast horizon

nummonclim number of months climotological forecasts are used in streamflow forecast (0 = N/A)

numdayhyd number of days hydrometeorological forecasts are used in streamflow forecast (0 = N/A)

num_elev_zones number of elevation zones in mountainous area may be 1,2 or 3else should be set to 1

consumptive_use indicates consumptive use model is used for the segment (Y or N)

channel_loss indicates channel loss model is used for the segment (Y or N)

post_processor post processing model used to create the forecast

impl_date date service was first produced

external_date date product first available the external customers

web_date date graphical products first available on web

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Attributes of Forecast ServicesAttributes of Forecast ServicesWater Supply Forecast ServiceWater Supply Forecast Service

lid location id

watsup_method computational method used to produce the water supply forecast

watsup_coord_agency coordinating agency for the water supply forecast

frequpd_normal normal operations period of issuance

period_req period required to be forecast

watsup_crit water supply criteria or interest

watsup_resp_agency agency responsible for issuing the water supply forecast

customer_desc description of customers interested in the water supply forecast

impl_date date service was first produced

web_date date graphical products first available on web

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Forecast Services GUI DemoForecast Services GUI Demo

• Start GUI with /awips/hydroapps/whfs/bin/start_fcstservice

• Demonstrate– Forecast Services Main Window (Service Table View)– Data Services (Initially Populated when you create tables)– Deterministic Forecast Services– Ensemble Forecast Services– Water Supply Forecast Services– Primary Keys– Foreign Keys– Drop Downs and Reference Table– Add/Modify/Delete

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FutureFuture

• Forecast Services Policy

– Proposed Policy 10-924 requiring RFC to populate and maintain services field in the IHFS-DB for all data and forecast points

• National River Location DataBase (NRLDB)

– Forecast Services tables pulled from RFCs and combined with WFO E-19 and E-19a information

• Other Logistical Measures

– Implementation to be determined through the AHPS budget prioritization process

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Lab ExerciseLab ExerciseTRAC2

UCRC2

VRBU1

TADU1

For the above forecast points, enter the forecast services information and relate service attributes into the IHFS-DB. (This will be done by bulk input). Then, using the Forecast Services GUI make services changes as directed.

• TADU1 is a data point, the observed data is provided on the AHPS pages

• TRAC2 is a forecast point where forecasts are only issued when the forecast exceeds the action stage, it is a headwater basin

• UCRC2 is a mandatory daily forecast point, it is downstream of TADU1 and TRAC2

• VRBU1 is a daily mandatory forecast point, it is downstream of UCRC2. Additionally, water supply forecasts are made at this point with both an ESP computational method and the SWS-Principle Components (Regression) method. Recently, the RFC has been experimenting with short-term ensembles at this location.

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Lab Exercise – Follow UpLab Exercise – Follow Up

• Review and Questions

• Survey; Needed GUI or database enhancements

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Thank youThank you