Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs

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Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs

Ir. J.W. Jaap van Till, Professor Emeritus Network Infrastructures and Social Media

Chief Scientist, Tildro Research, NL, Europe

(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com

Lecture 2 : in Australia for the OSDC2014

Monday, November 3, 2014. Varsity Lakes (Wotso), Silicon Beach Grou

Sponsor: City of GOLDCOAST.

- How to construct Weavelet Lenses for collaboration and P2P Connectivism -

28 pages

30 minutes + 15 min Q&A

Sara Wedeman

(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

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Abstract:

by Ir. Jaap van Till, prof. emeritus telecom infrastructures and social media• Steps beyond the Richard Florida approach to attract creative class talent to cities• to boost the Local Tech Economy. There is an urgent demand among the young and

bright for a positive perspective towards the future.

• Broadband Trends and Future Proof network architectures: Exponential Growth, Intermediaries, disruptive innovations, learning curves, effects on organizations, Apps and Clouds, Nokia vs Apple and other examples.

• What will come after the worldwide economic recession; a Golden Age: How, what and who. P2P cooperation, flocks and swarms, ICT as the General Purpose Technology. Orthogonal Engineers.

• Network Age Civil Society, brain patterns, orthogonal transforms & correlation, holograms and the Global Brain under construction.

• Energy, Information, Ideas (brainwaves) must FLOW to create synergy and wealth

(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail . com

Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs

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6.5 billion CellphSmartphonesTablets

3 billion internetaccess & growing

Heavy USE !!!COOPERATION

(CC) 2014 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com

CORRIDORIA: New transcontinental backbone for EurAsia’s Chain of booming city areas & P2P communities

• Decline and Success of Cities: Richard Florida found

Talent & ICT Technology & Tolerance

to be the drivers for prosperity [1]

The “Creative Class” flock to those magnet city centres where value is created by combinations of skills and specialists who co-create. Or they leave.

But self-centeredness is a dead end. For people and cities

the quality of their External Connections is vital.

Een ‘Kanteling in het denken’ is noodzakelijk om uit de recessie te komen.

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CORRIDORIA: New transcontinental backbone for EurAsia’s Chain of booming city areas & P2P communities

Lessons for Post-Industrial Economies: How Wealth and jobs are created

• Douglass North, Nobel Prize Economy 1993

Wealth is created by:

A. A number of very egalitarian institutions that work well:

education, infrastructure building, finance for ventures,

law, etc.

B. Very low micro transaction costs: trust in promised work.

• Joel Mokyr : The Gifts of Athena- Historical Origins of the Knowledge Society-

Combinations (duo’s) of Enterpreneurs with a long time vision &

super skilled crafsmen (Example : Rolls-Royce, Hewlett-Packard)

• JvTill : Daring : Don’t ask permission, just DO + friends

Black Swans ! Audacity

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7(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com

"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation"

Two types of Innovation & Improvement

Performance / Price

Time

Sustained Innovation

Disruptive Innovation

DIY: no permission needed

Source: Prof Ward Christensen. MIT


De Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid 8

DEPLOYMENTINSTALLATION

We are here

Creative destruction

Learning the newunlearning the old

A great market experiment

Led byfinancialcapital

Ending in a stock marketcrash

INSTALLATION

“Creative construction”

Led byproduction capital

Applying the paradigmto innovate

across all sectorsand to spread

the social benefitsmore widely

Until maturityand exhaustion

DEPLOYMENT

???2O - 30 years2O - 30 years

Majortechnology

bubble

big-bang Nextbig-bang

Time

Deg

ree

of d

iffus

ion

of

the

ne

w t

echn

olog

ical

po

ten

tial

The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winnersthe second half reaps the full economic and social potential

EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS

TurningPoint

Unce

rtain

ty, in

stitu

tiona

l rec

ompo

sitio

n a

nd r

ole

shift

Carlota Perez [11-13]



THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1)

CONVENTIONAL COMMON SENSE NEW EFFICIENCY PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES

COMMAND AND CONTROL

Centralized command Vertical control Cascade of supervisory levels "Management knows best"

Central goal-setting and coordination Local autonomy/Horizontal self-control Self-assessing/self-improving units Participatory decision-making

STRUCTURE AND GROWTH Stable pyramid, growing in height and

complexity as it expands Flat, flexible network of very agile units Remains flat as it expands

PARTS AND LINKS Clear vertical links

Separate, specialized functional departments

Interactive, cooperative links between functions, along each product line

STYLE OFOPERATION

Optimized smooth running organizations Standard routines and procedures "There is one best way" Definition of individual tasks Single function specialization Single top-down line of command Single bottom-up information flow

Continuous learning and improvement Flexible system/Adaptable procedures "A better way can always be found" Definition of group tasks Multi-skilled personnel/Ad hoc teams Widespread delegation of decision making Multiple horizontal and vertical flows

PERSONNEL AND TRAINING Labor as variable cost

Market provides trained personnel People to fit the fixed posts Discipline as main quality

Labor as human capital Much in-house training and retraining Variable posts/Adaptable people Initiative/collaboration/motivation



THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12])A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 2)

EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT Dedicated equipment

One optimum plant size for each product Each plant anticipates demand growth Strive for economies of scale for mass production

Adaptable/programmable/flexible equipment Many efficient sizes/Optimum relative Organic growth closely following demand Choice or combination of economies of scale, scope or specialization

PRODUCTION PROGRAMMING Keep production rhythm; Use inventory to

accommodate variation in demand. Produce for stock; shed labor in slac

Adapt rhythm to variation in demand Minimize response time ("Just-in-time") Use slack for maintenance and training

PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT A specific measure for each department

(purchasing, production, marketing, etc.) ercent tolerance on quality and rejects

Total productivity measured along the whole chain for each product line Strive for zero defects and zero rejects

SUPPLIERS, CLIENTS AND COMPETITORS

Separation from the outside world:Foster price competition among suppliers Make standard products for mass customers Arms length oligopoly with competitors The firm as a closed system

Strong interaction with outside world:Collaborative links with suppliers, with customers and, in some cases, with competitors (Basic R&D for instance) The firm as an open system

Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises ! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical ICT / Network Technology

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g

The Two Phases of Lightning












What may the future look like : Fractal repetition of the Internet paradigm, JvT 2000

(Planet)

InterNet I

corporate intraNetE-commerce

LANOffice E-business, I-Org II

Home III

Person IV

computers (mobile) devicessingle useM2M: IoT

BluetoothSMSZigBee..

N

3G UMTS4G LTE Wi-FioffloadingIEEE 802.11ac, ah, ad

N

MACROCELLS

FEMTOCELLS & FttX

SMALLCELLS+ hotspots

METROCELLStrainst, airport, Campus

Field enclosed in room + POF

TV sets, IoThings

Diversity of circumstances and scales + interconnected ( next: The Internet of Things)[Internet, + energy + goods] as a lifeform: “The Weave” MODEL(weavelets are fractal too)


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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation"

(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

• Subsea Optical Fiber Cables , Example: PT AJN SOLUSINDO ( Par Parkiyatno )• Optical Fiber long distance backbones: DWDM, Lambda’s, Lightpaths switches (“Netherlight” part of NREN SURFnet)• Internet Exchanges IX’s (AMST-IX, NDIX)- level 2 Ethernet, VLANs• Gigabit/s FTTX (busin/home/farm) – symmetric• GPON TWDM-PON (Google, ALU + Vodaphone)• LTE 4G & Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11 ac, ah, ad, …. Small Cells ( Glass & Wireless !! )• SIMs from Apple? Authentication (Example EduRoam)• IoThings plastic fiber & radio over fiber ROF 24 Ghz, 60 GHz within room• WhatsApp, Skype, Netflix, Youtube, iTunes (unbundling)

Functions DIS-Intermediated

Computers Computers

Tablet SmartphoneLaptop

DatacentersCloud ProviderPrivate Cloud

APPs Computer backplane /Bus1 – 10 Gbps Optic fibers FttX

Obstacles ?

http://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2013/05/17/connectivity-rules-ok-submarine-optic-fiber-cables/

Ideas about ideas, some observations about propagation, reformation and transitions. 16

Telephony with fixed line Cellphone with SkypeNokia GSM Cellphone iPhone Smartphone, Samsung, LGBing Google SearchTexting (SMS) WhatsAppTV channels Youtube, DelayTV, NetflixTaxi companies UberHotelrooms AirBNBProduction Stores Ebay, Marktplaats, AlibabaAirlines Reservation systems + services

• key: APP services & P2P sharing community who contribute and swap

• SHARING = the NEW HAVING, copying does not deminish value • Primary process from insides to outside• Others try to copy the successful after ‘takeoff’? No way: faster improvements• Learning from users, extends to problem solving, P2P aid (nabuur.com)• Open Source Software, Open source research, Open source education • Scarce Resource --- Abundant resource


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Mark Cooper The U-Turn !! Inside-out and Outside-in

OPEN COOPERATIVE

COMMONS like Frequency bands

What is behind OPEN SOURCE Development

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Mark Cooper : Examples

SHARING IS THE NEW HAVING !!! (jaap van Till)Abundance !!!

Scarce ResourcesMust be dished out equalyby govt

Peer-to-Peer commons P2P

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How do “P2P commons” grow For fundamentals see P2PFoundation.net

(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail Sharks and Dolphins?

The users put in more than they take out (example: BitTorent)“The SUCCESS of the COMMONS”, using it does not diminish its valueMust scale up exponentialy (constant doubling time) in ICT resources etc.

Google SearchSkypeYoutubeInstaGramAlibaba

Companies learn fastAttract the talentedExperiments can failImprovements updates

http://p2pfoundation.net/

(CC) 2010 vantill (at) gmail.com

Werken aan Goede Verbindingen = de Motor om uit de crises te komen 21

The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists

DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects

1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ grows with number of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N2 Metcalfe’s Law N + N + N + N + N ……….(N) V~ N Log N Odlyzko -Tilly’s Law 3. Group Membership V ~ 2N Reed’s Law 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) (+ Multi Tribe Membership by networking )

4. Connected people working together V ~ N ! Van Till’s Law of Synthecracy Networking

Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N)

Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/space when each unique and diverse individual contributes and shares resources and knowledge. [14]

Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulation Grids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]

Cooperative N

ET

WO

RK

can scale ! Synergy

Different

angles!

The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL, by Synthesis

< distance >

Max. Size. Does not scale

Issues:

- Simple- Linear- Static

Issues:

- Complex- Non linear- Dynamic

Virtual L

ens

How patterns???????


Earlier publication: http://www.vantill.dds.nl/democracy.htmlhttp://www.vantill.dds.nl/synthecracy.pdf

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http://www.vantill.dds.nl/democracy.html

http://www.vantill.dds.nl/synthecracy.pdf

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The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions on Internet, social networks Different angles ! Unique contribution

< distance > --------> Resolution, pattern contrast

< number of telescopic sensors> ---> pattern definition HDR

Array telescopes (LOFAR)Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !!Clusters

CORRELATION N factorial Combinations

Pattern Recognition and matching NETWORK “Network Lenses” ??

technology and groups of humansIt can coordinate, inform, self organize

P2P collaboration, creating valueCollective intelligence ??


HDR = High Dynamic Range in image

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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation• OPEN for wide diversity. for sudden changes, unexpected surprises : LERNEN• ORTHOGONALISE, extract “orthogonals” from the Chaos, which are agnostic to

other layers/ parameters/ infrastructures/ Examples: containers, IP datapackets.

This allows and absorbs changes in complex ecosystems.• Correlate and match. Social Networking! Match with learned patterns.• And interconnect Tribes (clusters with strong ties) by “weak link” super networkers

and LERNgroups (same Karass) who have trusted contributors & credibility in

many tribes. These links create stability and synergy.

This is what happens in Twitter, by Bloggers, G+ lacks this?• Remove obstacles in complex, non lin, dynamic systems (Liebig Law)• Maintain freedom to explore, experiment, express and create• Form FAST LEARNING problem solving Teams with a P2P Commons

in which the best people with unique and proven skills, crafts and knowledge

(the Orthogonals) contribute, cooperate and learn together : WEAVELETS

• Smart Connected Cities (Richard Florida statistics about the Creative Class), including 21 subsystems (energy, food, etc) for Life Support [ James Grier Miller ] ; HK !?

• Next step: strings of interconnected City Area’s including trade routes: Cascadia, Corridoria and then PlanetBrain.org (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation


Are groups of people learning and creating in Weavelets / P2P Phyles our next evolutionary step?

Will huge clusters of fast evolving bacteria and/ or viruses outpace our medical R&D ?

We should learn from Nature !!!

• Flocks of birds, they look together outside the flock !!• Complex ecologies, link to DNA for storage and replication of learned lessons?• Evolutionary dynamics (Prof Martin A. Nowak: Supercooperators)

• How the brain may work, including within neurons and synapses : Weavelets??

• Experiment with new networked P2P enterprise organization structures, like Holacracy, where value and jobs are created• Experiment with new structures for Smart Connected Cities (book Susan Crawford)• Connect farms and small rural with optical fibers too

• Design and introduce new viral Social Media where people can flock and cooperate

• SUDDEN FLOW of Lightning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g

http://www.amazon.com/SuperCooperators-Altruism-Evolution-Other-Succeed/dp/1439100187/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0



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Examples of Successful Working Constructive Weavelets<Fiduciary trust & the Best Cratfswomen/men !>

• Flashmobs• Bitcoin• Collection and aggregation of pictures and videos after Boston Bombing• Wikipedia, Google, Facebook, Twitter, InstaGram, Alibaba• AmberAlertNederland.nl• Self organizing Phyles, commons and cooperatives (see P2PFoundation.net)• New Education: MOOC’s, “learning in the digital age”. Connectivism by George Siemens and Stephen Downes

(connecting the dots) see: Susan Bainbridge• Cascadia, Corridoria• Singularity.U University ventures, exponential enterprises• The Maker Movement (3D printers lasercutters, crafsmen, schoolchildren)• BuurtZorgNederland.com• AmsterdamSmartCity.com

• “ The Responsive City” –Engaging Communities Through Data Smart Governance-

Stephen Goldsmith and Susan Crawford (just out)

• Next Century Cities Launch Event (Oct 2014) Local Californian city govts that have built

their own Next Generation Networks (Optical Fiber infra FttH ). 3 hour video on Youtube

What do they have in common: nearly no hierachy, so without many layers of management

(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com

http://www.amazon.com/Responsive-City-Communities-Data-Smart-Governance/dp/1118910907/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1414349044&sr=1-1&keywords=the+responsive+city+engaging+communities+through+data-smart+governance



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6Y7ABy0r2k&feature=youtu.be

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Researchers, students, geeks and nerds : find your unique skill&craft, in which you excell, and which you can contribute in a fast learning team. You will be appreciated and LERNing.


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• ANNEXES

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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation

The Global Brain Metaphore• Will our Planet become conscious in about 2020? • Peter Russell described that for each evolutionary leap more than 10 ^ 10

(10 Bln) must be present and interconnected• Human foetus: first few months: braincells replicate by many millions

each day. Up to around 100 billion.• After x months suddenly the neurons start to make axons, near and far, and

synapse connections. • After birth the baby starts to learn fast and becomes conscious and

communicates with parents and fits to environment. Learning curves start.

• There are now about 7 billion people on this planet, of which 6.5 have cellphone connections and about 3.5 billion have smartphones and Internet connectivity. Is baby Gaia already kicking when young people flock ??

Are we engineers wiring Mother Gaia’s future Global Brain and will she

wake up? I hope to be still present when she does, around 2020?

(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail . Com

Ideas about ideas, some observations about propagation, reformation and transitions. 32

Communicationnot rational

pioneers

Control, keep puremanage/ allocate

economic: scales up

standard: one is chosen as legitimate and enforced Other alternatives are suppressed

avant garde

pioneersExploreEXPERIMENTS

Time* Several paradigms at the same time, multiple learning curves. Try to synchronise on one stage !

• The present innovators are the future conservatives, obstacles resist change and innovation

Example: Expenditures on ICT in companies

Absorption of new ideas: Learning curves (discontinuous)

reformation

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What happens at the Transformed Plane? All of the information is available there (halfway the Weavelet) to

make spatial (3D) models, for handling Depth and Proportions, and temporal (time: 4D) models of movements etc. to act upon.

The patterns are distributed, stored and manipulated all over the Weavelet by multiple feedback loops in contact with the ecology around it. So collective and individual decisions and actions can be taken.

Physical evidence: In optics halfway behind the lens there is the FFT Transform plane. The image is fuzzy there, while on the Focal plane it is sharp. Jumping spiders have 4 distinct photoreceptor layers in their eyes, they can judge distance to jump by processing the difference between defocused and focused layers. http://www.livescience.com/18143-jumping-spider-unique-vision.html


http://www.livescience.com/18143-jumping-spider-unique-vision.html


New Organizational Paradigm : The Structure of a Weavelet Yes, it can scale up, self organize. Fast parallel pattern recognition (incomplete matching) Orthogonalisation. Correlation with learned patterns.

Distributed:Every Karass can:recommend,confirm, verify ANDnoticesignificantdifferencesdecide, act,combine, mix, createbend light,zoom in, focus, hasoverview,feed back

P2PConnectivityOPEN SynthesisValue creation

SynergyInnovation

Very resilient

ContributionsFractal unfolding repetition

DISTRIBUTEDTransparentEverybodycan seeeverything

PluriformDiverse

Functionsas ONEorganismGroup Collective Intelligence based on Cooley-Tuckey connections)

Distributed authority, can cope with Complexity and react fast.


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OccupyFacing Sharks


Summary

I wish you Good Connections !!!


Emergent behaviour: Flocks, Swarms, Schools of fish.Teams in Fast Learning people in P2P Cooperation !!!

Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs

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