LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
Transcript of LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…
![Page 1: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Dealing with Bus Bunching A control tool, a pilot plan and a
pedagogical game
Juan Carlos Muñoz, Felipe Delgado, Ricardo Giesen
Sergio Ariztía, Daniel Hernández, Felipe Ortiz and William Phillips Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
![Page 2: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Santiago, Chile
![Page 3: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
+ - + - + - +
![Page 4: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
+ - + - + - +
![Page 5: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
+ - + - + - +
![Page 6: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
+ - + - + - +
And so on so forth.
Our challenge: keep buses evenly spaced under an inherently unstable system
Now, if we want to prevent bunching from occurring … when is the
right time to intervene?
![Page 7: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Bus bunching
Severe problem if not controlled
Most passengers wait longer than they should for crowded
buses
Reduces reliability affecting passengers and operators
Affects Cycle time and capacity
Put pressure in the authority for more buses
Contribution: Control Mechanism to Avoid Bus Bunching!
![Page 8: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Approach
Based on real-time information (or estimations) about:
Bus position.
Bus loads.
# of Passengers waiting at each stop.
We run a rolling-horizon optimization model each time a bus
reaches a stop or every certain amount of time (e.g. 2 minutes)
The model minimizes:
Waiting for first bus + Waiting for subsequent buses + time held
![Page 9: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Results: Simulation Animation
Simulation includes events randomness
2 hours of bus operation. 15 minutes “warm-up” period.
![Page 10: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Encouraging simulation-based results
Excess waiting drops in over 60%
Excess Waiting for first bus drops in 80%
Waiting for second bus drops in 90%
Comfort inside buses improve significantly
Reliability for users improve significantly: waiting twice the average
interval drops from 1 out of 11 trips, to 1 out of 1250.
Cycle time drops by 4% and its variability by 35%
![Page 11: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Common disobedience rate across drivers
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tota
l W
aiti
ng
Tim
e [M
in]
Obedience rate
HRT, Beta=0,5
Sin Control
![Page 12: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Full disobedience of a set of drivers
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Tota
l W
aiti
ng T
ime
[Min
]
Deaf Buses from a total of 15 buses
![Page 13: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Implementation
• The first pilot plan consisted in implemnting our holding
tool in buses of line 210 of SuBus from Transantiago
(Santiago, Chile) along its full path from 7:00 to 9:30 AM.
• We chose 24 out of 130 stops to hold buses
• One person in each of these 24 stops received text
messages (from a central computer) into their cell
phones indicating when each bus should depart from the
stop.
![Page 14: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Plan Description
![Page 15: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Control Points
![Page 16: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The results were very promising even though the conditions were far
from ideal
![Page 17: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Input Data
• Trajectories of given GPS data (on a regular day)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24
Kilo
met
ers
fro
m T
erm
inal
Time
Trajectories
![Page 18: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Input Data • The trajectiories traveled by buses can be
inferred as:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24
Kilo
met
ers
fro
m T
erm
inal
Time
Corrected Trajectories for a typical day
![Page 19: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Pilot Analysis
• Trajectories of our experiment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24
Kilo
me
ters
fro
m T
erm
inal
Time
Pilot Corrected Trajectories
![Page 20: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Pilot Analysis
• Again… versus a regular day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6:00:00 6:28:48 6:57:36 7:26:24 7:55:12 8:24:00 8:52:48 9:21:36 9:50:24
Kilo
met
ers
fro
m T
erm
inal
Time
Corrected Trajectories
![Page 21: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Main results
• Transantiago computes an indicator for regularity based on intervals exceeding twice the expected headway (and for how much).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Piloto1 Prueba8 Prueba9 Prueba10 Prueba11 Prueba12 Prueba13 Prueba14 Prueba15 Prueba16 Prueba17
ICR Aproximado PM y TPM (UF)
Fines due to regularity on that day dropped around 50%
![Page 22: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The demand captured by the line grew!
• Line 210 captured an extra 20% demand!
94.000
96.000
98.000
100.000
102.000
104.000
106.000
7.400 7.600 7.800 8.000 8.200 8.400 8.600 8.800
Demand for Line 210 (pax)
Demand on All lines
(pax)
![Page 23: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
This pilot plan can improve significantly
1) GPS errors can be corrected
2) Run the Optimization more often (from 3.5 to 2 min)
3) Calibrate speeds and arrival rates
4) Check data inputs before feeding the system
And more importantly:
5) Bypass the person at the stop. Communicate to drivers
![Page 24: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Conclusions
Developed a tool for headway control using Holding in real time reaching
time savings of over 50%
Extending it to green time extension and boarding limits savings can reach
over 60% with only minor impact on car users
Huge improvements in comfort and reliability
The tool is fast enough for real time applications. It had been tested
successfully in simulations (for the Insurgentes corridor in Mexico city)
and in the streets (line 210 in Santiago, Chile) with very promising results.
![Page 25: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Publications and working papers
• Delgado, F., Muñoz, J.C., Giesen, R., Cipriano, A. (2009) Real-Time Control of Buses in a Transit Corridor Based on Vehicle Holding and Boarding Limits. Transportation Research Record, Vol 2090, 55-67
• Munoz, J.C. and Giesen, R. (2010). Optimization of Public Transportation Systems. Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Vol 6, 3886-3896.
• Delgado, F., J.C. Muñoz and R. Giesen (2012) How much can holding and limiting boarding improve transit performance? Trans Res Part B, , vol.46 (9), 1202-1217
• Muñoz, J.C., C. Cortés, F. Delgado, F. Valencia, R. Giesen, D. Sáez and A. Cipriano (2013) Comparison of dynamic control strategies for transit operations. Forthcoming in Trans Res Part C.
![Page 26: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Pedagogical game
![Page 27: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Yesterday we submitted a proposal to an innovation grant for US$500,000 (40% committed by a bus operator).
The goal is to turn this experience into
a commercial tool.
![Page 29: LO1: Dealing with bus bunching, a control tool, a pilot plan and a peda…](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032422/55a8bd461a28ab7c0c8b4595/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Dealing with Bus Bunching A control tool, a pilot plan and a
pedagogical game
Juan Carlos Muñoz, Felipe Delgado, Ricardo Giesen
Sergio Ariztía, Daniel Hernández, Felipe Ortiz and William Phillips Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile