Lmi Demystify62910
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Transcript of Lmi Demystify62910
Labor Market Information/LMI: How to Demystify Labor Market & Economic Statistics
Tuesday, June 29, 2010Presentation by Gary Crossley to the IAWP 97th Educational Conference
2Workwww.LovetoWork.org
Phone -- 843/452-4121
The Secret Behind the LMI Magic Is it in the way they count? Do they know someone special? What secret potion do they use to produce
those numbers? Maybe it is their astrological signs? Do they read palms on the side? Where do they keep the Ouija boards?
Outline
Education Application & Assessment Communication Help Understanding Solutions Q & A
Education
BLS Programs Census LMI Training Understanding Data
BLS Core Programs
QCEW, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
CES. Current Employment Statistics LAUS, Local Area Unemployment
Statistics MLS, Mass Layoff Statistics OES, Occupational Employment
Statistics
BLS Cooperative Programs
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Produces employment, total payroll, weekly wages and employing units
All data by industry (North American Industry Classification System/NAICS)
Geographic areas: state, county, MSA Called “covered” employment By place of work
Data Sources for QCEW UI quarterly
contribution reports
UCFE federal agency employment
Supplementary employer surveys by state LMI offices
Multiple establishment detail (MWR)
Industrial coding (annual refile survey)
Follow-ups triggered by edits
Uses of QCEW Data Employment benchmarks
for all BLS federal/state employer survey programs — CES, OES and OSHA
Critical for Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal income, and state and national product
Local planning - Only consistent source of county employment and wages by industry
Analysis requiring universe or detailed data
BLS Cooperative Programs
Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Information from CES
Industry employment Hours worked per
week Average hourly
wages Average weekly
wages Production workers
Data available only for state and select MSAs
Data produced on a monthly and annual basis
By place of work
CES/QCEW Coverage Differences
The following categories of workers are included in CES estimates but not included in QCEW:
Full commission salespersons
Elected and appointed government officials
Teachers in summer months who are paid on 12-month contracts
Data Sources for CES
Covered employment from QCEW, supplemented with non-covered adjustments, is used to benchmark levels.
A monthly employer survey is a major part of the program, using a variety of collection methods.
Adjusted for birth-death factors
Uses of CES
A primary economic indicator of employment, earnings, and working hours for national, state, and selected areas
Total employment growth used by Federal Reserve
Incorporated in preliminary estimates of National Product and Income
Incorporated into productivity estimates
BLS Cooperative Programs
Local Area Unemployment Statistics- LAUS -
Information from LAUS Total employment Total unemployment Unemployment rate Demographic
breakouts: sex, race, age, educational attainment, ethnicity
Place of residence
LAUS Source Information
Current Population Survey – 60,000 households
Interview 15+ age groups but publish 16+
States: Monthly model estimates
Substate: Handbook “building-block” method (CPS, CES, UI, Census)
BLS Cooperative Programs
Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)
Information from MLS
Intent: To track serious layoffs and closings by industry
At least 50 initial claims for UI for a 5-week period
Some states use a cut-off figure of 25 claims
Data available by industry, state and reason
Background Material -BLS Statistical Programs
BLS Handbook of Methods
Download:www.bls.gov/opub/hom
BLS Cooperative Programs
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Information from OES
Employment by occupation
Occupational breakout by industry
Wage rate ranges by occupation
Collected twice a year and published annually
Available for state and MSAs (workforce areas in some states)
Data “aged” to bring up to date - ECI
OES Staffing Estimates Data developed with
most current 3 years of data
Surveys conducted twice annually
Employment by occupation tallied for each detailed industry
Staffing ratios developed representing each occupation’s share of industry employment
State and Area Occupational Projections
Partially funded by ETA but tied to OES
Composed of adjusted OES staffing ratios applied to industry employment projections
Short-term projections — 2 years out
Long-term projections: 10 years out
Technical assistance available at the following site: dev.projectionscentral.com
Cheat Sheet
BLS Program
Quarterly Census ofEmployment and Wages
CES -- Current Employment
Survey
LAUS -- Local Area Unemployment Statistics
MLS -- Mass Layoff Statistics
OES -- Occupational Employment Statistics
Other titles Wage Record Monthly EmploymentUnemployment RateLabor Force Data Mass Layoffs Wages by Job Title
Frequency Quarterly Monthly Monthly Monthly Previously once a year. Data now gathered in May and November
Sample No, universe of all businesses that are required to report
Yes, firms in sample are based on the QCEW universe.
No, Composite model which uses as one of the inputs responses from the Current Population Survey, a household survey that measures the national unemployment rate.
No, universe of all businesses that have a qualifying event.
Yes, firms in sample are based on the ES-202 universe.
Measures Quarterly report of all employment and firms (Industry and Employment)
Indicator of rapid changes in employment available on a monthly basis (Industry, Employment and Manufacturing Production Workers wages). Is used for industrial projections.
Consistent measure of available, able and actively seeking work for all counties (Unemployment Rate)
Shows the demographic characteristics of those involved in a mass layoff. Definition of mass layoff event varies by state.
Occupational data by Industry, geographic area as well as wage data. Is a component for projections.
Time Lag Not available until 5 months after the end of the quarter
Usually, 6 weeks. Usually, 6 weeks. Usually, 6 weeks. Approximately one year, should be shorter with new reporting method.
Updates? Of the data, rarely Preliminary data, then revised. Benchmarked at the end of the year
Benchmarked at the end of the year
Of the data, rarely Uses the ECI (Employment Cost Index) to bring data up-to-date
Geography Subject to rules of confidentiality. May include county, metropolitan areas and state
Subject to rules of confidentiality. Metropolitan areas and state
County, metropolitan areas and state. In addition, the different counties in an area can be added together to create Labor Market Areas.
Subject to rules of confidentiality. In some states, county, metropolitan areas and state data are available.
Subject to rules of confidentiality. Metropolitan areas and state are available. In addition, each state may produce four sub-areas.
Comparison of Bureau of Labor Statistics Programs done in Labor Market Information Shops
Census Some States are also State Data
Centers MOU for Data Sharing which adds
other Census Data on Businesses & Workers
Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Workforce Indicators Community Hot Reports
Employment Dynamics
Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics/LEHD from Census: Uses UI and Census data to measure detailed workforce activity by area
LEHD/LED also produces Quarterly Workforce Indicators
LED Contact: Jeremy Wu, Census Bureau
www.lehd.did.census.gov
On The Map for Custom Areas OnTheMap Version 4
Released
Start using OnTheMap now! The new version adds: Data for 2007 and 2008 Data for Ohio (2002-2008) Import/Export shapefiles and KML/KMZ Better selection tools Other new features and usability improvements See examples and tutorials...
http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/whatsnew.html#042110
LMI Training Institute
Now operated by the C2ER organization –The Council for Community and Economic Research
Variety of training both for LMI staff and data users
www.lmiontheweb.org
LMI Concepts & Definitions
Adjusting for Seasonal Patterns Data Collection Definitions of Labor Market Concepts Statistical Error Sampling Trend Analysis & Projection Models
Unadjusted Data
Seasonally Adjusted Data
Data Collection
Employer Establishment Surveys Household Surveys Administrative Data Specific Follow-up Targeted Surveys
Education/Training Completers Green Industries Dislocated Workers
Labor Market Concepts
Employed & Unemployed Whys Use the Reference Week of the
12th of each month? Who and How is Unemployment
Counted? Underemployment, Discouraged
Workers, & Alternate Measures of Unemployment
Labor Force Terms and Concepts
Employed
Worked at least one hour for pay
During the week that includes the 12th
Unemployed
No job attachment
Able, available for and actively seeking work
Can be experienced or a new or re-entrant
Labor Force Terms and Concepts
So what is so special about the week of the 12th???
Fewest holidays so it is the most “normal” workweek on average for the year
Labor Force Terms and Concepts
Labor Force 16+ years old Employed + Unemployed
Unemployment Rate Unemployed ÷ Labor Force
Expressed as %
Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force ÷ Working Age
Population
Labor Force Terms and ConceptsDiscouraged Workers Harder to define
and sometimes undercounted
Generally are on long-term layoff with no immediate prospects
Underemploy-ment Also hard to define
and count
Basically can be anyone working below their skill level
Underemployed by choice?
Alternative Unemployment Measures Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States,
Second Quarter of 2009 through First Quarter of 2010 Averages Six alternative measures of labor underutilization have long
been available on a monthly basis from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the United States as a whole. They are published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation news release. (See table 15.) The official concept of unemployment (as measured in the CPS by U-3 in the U-1 to U-6 range of alternatives) includes all jobless persons who are available to take a job and have actively sought work in the past four weeks. This concept has been thoroughly reviewed and validated since the inception of the CPS in 1940. The other measures are provided to data users and analysts who want more narrowly (U-1 and U-2) or broadly (U-4 through U-6) defined measures.
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Application & Assessment
So what that LMI Has All those data? What does it matter? Assessment is all about measurement Using information to help customers
(both labor supply and business demand)
Limits of data
LMI Matters One pagers on how states have used
workforce information projects & products to help economic recovery, answer program questions, and/or shape future state/local initiatives
For each submittal – data used, impact, cost & how funded, when produced, and link to report/research
Green jobs, training issues, economic impact, assessing disasters, in-demand industries, etc.
Communication
Meet each other half way to learn how to talk with each other (leave each other’s jargon and acronyms at the respective offices)
LMI must take their products and make them usable to end users
Products need to be useful in terms of timeliness, accuracy, and relevance
Help Each Other
Develop Web Sites to Help Folks Help Themselves
Always explore new ways to do things Learn from other states and national
technical assistance Use the data to tell a story – job skill
requirement changes, unemployment & earnings by education
Solutions Use all Resources Data Explained Partner with other groups (higher
education, associations, etc.) to address issues
Creative technology to map, spot trends, and apply data to solve problems in your areas
All Labor Markets are Local!
• Number of employees and wages by NAICS code • Pay quarterly into UI Trust Fund • Grouped by size of employment and type of employment• Location by address• Forecast of industry trends (growth over 2-yr, 10-yr period)
Industries
Occupations
• Number in occupation• Wages by occupation• Organized by O*Net/SOC code• Analyzed by assessment tools• Grouped by education & experience• Grouped by job family• Linked to training program• Cross-walked to industry patterns• Forecast of average annual openings (growth + net replacement)
Geographic Areas
• Counties• Metro-Statistical Areas • Workforce Dev Areas• State
DataExplained.com Web Site Devoted to Understanding
Data, Research, Statistical Reports Founder and CEO Scott Moore MN Researcher & Labor Employee Current Business, Moore Data, LLC Making Sense of Data Applied Employment Topics www.dataexplained.com
Deep Water Horizon Rig Employment
Off-Shore MoratoriumThe economic impact of shutting down a deep water drilling rig is no doubt massively expensive. But employment impact is different. As a benchmark, the employment on the BP rig was 126 persons. It is reported that wages average about 100k per year for those workers. However, I could not find that person anywhere, except in the management ranks according to National OES data! Furthermore, most if not all support workers, according to the BLS, make less than 1/2 that unsubstantiated amount.
Interestingly, as soon as we get into a multiplier discussion, the numbers start off ridiculously high and go up from there. But a multiplier over two is not reasonable or supported in any research and especially not in this case. One primary reason is the service nature of the JOBS we are talking about, NOT the industry multipliers.
LMI Resources Workforce Information Council,
www.workforceinfocouncil.org Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov LMI Training Institute, www.lmiontheweb.org O*Net Resource Center, www.onetcenter.org Department of Labor WIN WIN,
http://winwin.workforce3one.org/ Census, www.census.gov State LMI Web Sites Universities, Associations, & Institutes
Summary EACH of US can use these principles
to communicate better with each other
Maybe IAWP can share best practices between the various agency programs to help solve workforce issues
Use and share resources between the states/areas to learn from each other
Labor Market Information/LMI: How to Demystify Labor Market & Economic Statistics
Questions and State Sharing
2Workwww.LovetoWork.org
Phone -- 843/452-4121