LLoyd's Register Marine - Global Marine Safety Trends

7/25/2019 LLoyd's Register Marine - Global Marine Safety Trends

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Working togetherfor a safer world

Global Marine Safety Trends

International Maritime Safety Conference, May 2015Dr. Spyros E. HirdarisLloyds Register Asia, Technology Group, South Korea


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US$perbarrel

US$perbarrel

US$perbarrel

US$perbarrel

Crude oil prices Monthly averages (US$/bbl) 1992-2014YTD; CRSL; January 2015

Arab Light Crude Oil PriceArab Light Crude Oil PriceArab Light Crude Oil PriceArab Light Crude Oil Price

Brent Crude Oil PriceBrent Crude Oil PriceBrent Crude Oil PriceBrent Crude Oil Price

Global economicdownturn!

Iraq War

Asian Financial Crisis

9/11

Gulf War

Lebanon conflicts

Japan Tsunami EarthquakeFukushina Nuclear Disaster

March 2011

Crude oil prices

Syria crisis!

Oil pricescrashed to

below USD60per bbl.


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2015-2021 : World Fleet expected to grow at annual average of 3.3%

(data presented for commercial ships > 5,000 dwt)

Forecasts


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Tourism - will generally grow


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Cruise and Cruise ships will grow

More Innovative / complex

ship designs

High demand onknowledge, information,technology management

2,836.002,836.002,836.002,836.00

3,142.003,142.003,142.003,142.00

4,393.004,393.004,393.004,393.00

2,337.002,337.002,337.002,337.00

2014 2015 2016 2017

YearYearYearYear (Investment in Million Euro)(Investment in Million Euro)(Investment in Million Euro)(Investment in Million Euro)

Cruise Ship OrdersCruise Ship OrdersCruise Ship OrdersCruise Ship Orders 2014201420142014 ---- 17171717Source :Source :Source :Source : CLIACLIACLIACLIA ----EUEUEUEU 2014 edition2014 edition2014 edition2014 edition

6

ships

6

ships

6

ships

6

ships

7777

ships

ships

ships

ships

10

10

10

10

ships

ships

ships

ships

4

4

4

4

ships

ships

ships

ships


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Accidents and statistics


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Reactive regulatory response - Tanker Ship Safety evolution

1980198019801980

Torrey CanyonTorrey CanyonTorrey CanyonTorrey CanyonDevelopment ofDevelopment ofDevelopment ofDevelopment ofMARPOL 73/78MARPOL 73/78MARPOL 73/78MARPOL 73/78

Amoco CadizAmoco CadizAmoco CadizAmoco Cadizsteering gearsteering gearsteering gearsteering gearredundancyredundancyredundancyredundancy

requirementsrequirementsrequirementsrequirements

TorreyTorreyTorreyTorreyCanyonCanyonCanyonCanyon

AmocoAmocoAmocoAmocoCadizCadizCadizCadiz

1985198519851985 1990199019901990

ExxonExxonExxonExxonValdezValdezValdezValdez

Exxon ValdezExxon ValdezExxon ValdezExxon Valdezmandatory double hullmandatory double hullmandatory double hullmandatory double hull

for new ships andfor new ships andfor new ships andfor new ships andtimetable for conversiontimetable for conversiontimetable for conversiontimetable for conversion

of existing shipsof existing shipsof existing shipsof existing ships

19751975197519751970197019701970

BraerBraerBraerBraerEmergency TowingEmergency TowingEmergency TowingEmergency Towingand UK standingand UK standingand UK standingand UK standing

salvage tugsalvage tugsalvage tugsalvage tug

schemeschemeschemescheme

1995199519951995

BraerBraerBraerBraer

Double HullDouble HullDouble HullDouble HullRegRegRegReg 13F, 13G13F, 13G13F, 13G13F, 13G

Sea EmpressSea EmpressSea EmpressSea EmpressEmergency Plans and UKEmergency Plans and UKEmergency Plans and UKEmergency Plans and UK

standing salvage tugstanding salvage tugstanding salvage tugstanding salvage tugschemeschemeschemescheme

2000200020002000

PrestigePrestigePrestigePrestigeAccelerated Phase OutAccelerated Phase OutAccelerated Phase OutAccelerated Phase Out

Sea EmpressSea EmpressSea EmpressSea Empress

2005200520052005 2010201020102010

Hebei SpiritHebei SpiritHebei SpiritHebei SpiritErikaErikaErikaErika PrestigePrestigePrestigePrestige

ErikaErikaErikaErikaAccelerated Single Hull PhaseAccelerated Single Hull PhaseAccelerated Single Hull PhaseAccelerated Single Hull Phase

OutOutOutOut+ EU Ban+ EU Ban+ EU Ban+ EU Ban

ETAETAETAETA PMA +PMA +PMA +PMA + CSR/PSPCCSR/PSPCCSR/PSPCCSR/PSPCCoated Ballast tanksCoated Ballast tanksCoated Ballast tanksCoated Ballast tanks

ISMISMISMISM1995199519951995 2025202520252025

PrestigePrestigePrestigePrestigeAccelerated Phase OutAccelerated Phase OutAccelerated Phase OutAccelerated Phase Out


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URS1URS1URS1URS1 Basic IACS Requirement for Loading Instrument/ManualURS11URS11URS11URS11 Introduction of IACS longitudinal strength standard

&

& &

,

Pre 2000 DOB:Old Generation

2000 to 2005 DOB:Intermediate Generation

Post 2005 DOB:New Generation

IMO BC Code

1971197119711971

URS1 URS1A

SOLAS XIIBLU Code

1997199719971997 19981998199819981989198919891989

URS11

2002200220022002

URS25

2006200620062006

CSR BC

20142014201420142015201520152015

CSR (H)

20112011201120111965196519651965

URS17URS20

/

Bulk Carriers: Implementation of Class Ruleamendments & implications for load ability

IMSBC+

IMDG

Reactive regulatory response - Bulk Carrier Safety evolution

/


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Safety for the Maritime environment

Source : The International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Ltd.

1970 2014 :No. of large spills > 700 tonnes


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Ship safety the overall impact of the prevailing system

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ave

rage

age

loss

rate

per1000

ships

atrisk

year

Actual and constructive total losses - all causes except war loss(Source : Lloyds Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics / propelled sea-going ships of not less than 100 GT)

loss rate

average age

FlatFlatFlatFlat lininglininglininglining vsvsvsvs kickkickkickkick upsupsupsups SteepnessSteepnessSteepnessSteepness smoothedsmoothedsmoothedsmoothed outoutoutout

Pomeroy, V. (2014). On future of ship safety people, complexity and systems, Journal

of Marine Engineering and Technology, 13(2) : 50-61.


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Ship safety the overall impact of the prevailing system

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

ave

rage

age

loss

rate

per1

000

ships

atrisk

year

Constructive total losses - all causes except war loss(Source : Lloyds Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics / propelled sea-going ships of not less than 100 GT)

loss rate

average age

later reported incidents will increase the loss rate

for these later years

cost of repair high(scrapping levels high)

cost of repair high

(scrapping levels high)

cost of repair low

cost of repair low(scrapping levels low)


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2001 2002 2003 2004 200 200 200 200 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

( ' )

(.. ) (.. )

( )

/ / ()

( )

()

Collision, 2

Foundered,Foundered,Foundered,Foundered,49494949

Fire/Explosion, 4

Hull damage, 3

Machinery damage /failure, 3

Wrecked/stranded(aground), 13

Miscalaneous, 1


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Tankers and Bulk Carriers - fatalities decreasing

Source : Intertanko Casualty Statistics. (2001-2015)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FatalitiesFatalitiesFatalitiesFatalities ---- Tanker AccidentsTanker AccidentsTanker AccidentsTanker Accidents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

FatalitiesFatalitiesFatalitiesFatalities ---- Bulk CarriersBulk CarriersBulk CarriersBulk Carriers

Source : Intercargo 2012-13 Benchmarking Report(10 year Rolling average)


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Passenger Ships consequences to people

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Cargo Ships FishingVessels

PassengerShips

Service Ships Others

51% of fatalities51% of fatalities51% of fatalities51% of fatalities occurred on boardoccurred on boardoccurred on boardoccurred on board cargo shipscargo shipscargo shipscargo ships

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013

Costa Concordia peak32 victims

Source : European Maritime Safety Agency Statistics 2014

0

10

20

30

4050

60

70

Crew Passengers Others

75% of fatalities were of seafarers75% of fatalities were of seafarers75% of fatalities were of seafarers75% of fatalities were of seafarers


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Ferries163 accidents in 14 years & 17,000 deaths in 40 countries

All others42%

Bangladesh25%

Indonesia

16%

Philippines11%

China

6%

Source : World wide FerrySafety Association

Over-crowdingMisjudgement of weather conditions

Bad stowage of cargo Human factors


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Geography of accidents

Source : Lloyds List Intelligence Casualty Statistics .

Analysis AGCS

1 SE Asia2 Eastern Med


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Overview of key risks for 2014

Natural catastrophes

Economies of scale

Human trafficking

Piracy

DangerouscargoesBad whether

Criminalisation ofseafarers

Acts of war

Pandemics(Ebola)

Overreliance toE-Navigation

Crewing

LNG as fuelArctic shipping

Passenger ships

& Coastal Ferries

Container ships

Survivability


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TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology trendstrendstrendstrendsHuman Factors

Complex Engineering Systems and Operations

Management of Big data

Emerging technologies

2000200020002000 2010201020102010 20202020202020201990199019901990

MSC 94MSC 94MSC 94MSC 94 (2014)(2014)(2014)(2014)

Passenger Ship Safety

LNG and low distillate fuels Codes

Piracy, armed robbery and cyber securityE-navigation

Training

Goal Based Regulations

IMO 2014 Safety trends vessel construction is not the only weak point

MEPCMEPCMEPCMEPC (2014(2014(2014(2014))))

BCH Code

IBC Code


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The shipping industry Ecosystem

CrewCrew

UnionsUnions

ClassClass

PublicPublic

AcademiaAcademia

MediaMedia

OwnersOwners

BanksBanks

PoliticiansPoliticians

CharterersCharterers

PSCPSC

FlagsFlags

YardsYards

Equip.Manuf.Equip.Manuf.


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Goal Based Standards

Tier I

Tier III

Tier V

Tier IV

Tier II

Applicable Industry Standards &Codes of Practice

Prescriptive Regulations &

Class Rules

VerificationProcess

FunctionalRequirements

Goals

Tier I

Tier III

Tier V

Tier IV

Tier II




Class Rules


Class Rules

VerificationProcess

VerificationProcess



GoalsGoals

IMOGBS

Safe and Environment-friendly Vessel

7


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The Future

TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology EducationEducationEducationEducation

EngineeringEngineeringEngineeringEngineering

MarketsMarketsMarketsMarkets

RegulationsRegulationsRegulationsRegulations

AssuranceAssuranceAssuranceAssurance


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Conclusions

World trading and shipping expansion will demand Safety, Environment andSustainability balance.

Industry self-regulation should continue and build upon operational experience.

De-risking technologies will be critical and in this process Class should be a partnerof the IMO and Industry.

Fundamental to the technology de-risking process will be

Transparency, availability and harmonisation of big data

Balancing of human factors with systems thinking and operational complexity


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Lloyds Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyds Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates.Copyright Lloyds Register Asia. 2015. A member of the Lloyds Register group.

Working togetherfor a safer world

Dr. Spyros HirdarisLloyds Register Asia

Technology Group, South KoreaE [email protected]

LLoyd's Register Marine - Global Marine Safety Trends

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