Livestock productivity, global land use and climate change · 2012. 4. 3. · Cereals, starchy...

Stefan Wirsenius, Dept. of Energy and Environment

Chalmers University of Technology

Livestock productivity, global land use and climate change

Stefan Wirsenius

Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology Gothenburg, Sweden [email protected]

FAO Livestock Workshop, April 2, 2012



The role of livestock productivity for a sustainable growth of world food supply is overlooked

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• The potential of increased livestock productivity for land-efficient and low-impact growth of world food supply has largely been neglected

• Some examples of global food studies:

- Foley et al. 2011, “Solutions for a cultivated planet”. Nature 478: 337–342: Not a single word about livestock or pasture productivity

- FAO’s “World Agriculture” reports (e.g. Bruinsma 2003): Very comprehensive on crop production prospects but scanty on livestock

• Global prospects for raising yields on cropland are relatively well known, in contrast to that of permanent pastures



Livestock productivity potentials: Milk

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Source: Wirsenius, Azar, Berndes (2010)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Kg milk/cow/year

Historical values 1961-2005

FAO projections 1998-2030 (Reference scenario)

Scenario 'Increased livestock productivity'

North America & Oceania

East Europe

South & Central Asia

West Europe



Livestock productivity potentials: Beef

4


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Kg meat/animal/year

Historical values 1961-2005

FAO projections 1998-2030 (Reference scenario)


East Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America & Caribbean

North America & Oceania



Global feed-to-product efficiencies in 2030

5


(FAO projection)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Cattle whole-milk

Buffalo whole-milk

Beef Mutton Pork Eggs Poultry meat

Feed

eff

icie

ncy

(gr

oss

en

ergy

bas

is)

1992/94

Reference scenario




Global feed use in 2030

6


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1992/94 Reference scenario (FAOprojection)

Increased livestockproductivity

Tg dry matter/year

Food industry by-products & food waste

Crop residues

Non-agricultural herbage& browse

Permanent pasture &browse

Cropland pasture

Forage crops (hay &silage)

Soybean, starchy roots &other edible-type crops

Cereal grains



Global land use in 2030


7

1602 1728 1708

3470 3621

3131

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1997/1999 Reference scenario (FAO projection)

Increased livestock productivity

mill

ion

ha

Permanent pasture

Cropland



Livestock productivity is a key GHG mitigation option: Example of EU15 dairy production

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1998 Reference scenario (2015)

Increased livestock

productivity

Improved manure mgmt

Changed feed rations

kg C

O2

eq

./kg

milk

& m

eat

Indirect nitrous oxide

Methane manure mgmt

Methane feed digestion

Nitrous oxide (land, manure)

Source: Kasimir Klemedtsson & Wirsenius (2004)



Increased livestock productivity will help meeting a 2-degree climate target

Source: Hedenus, Wirsenius, Johansson (2010)

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Gto

n C

O2

-eq

/yr

Emissions from food - Baseline

Emissions from food - Increased livestock productivity

Emissions path 70% probability

Emissions path 50% probability



What are possible drivers of faster growth in livestock productivity?

• Stringent climate mitigation policies - Higher CO2 costs in the energy and transport sectors bioenergy more competitive higher land rents

• Even higher oil prices

• Ever-increasing global food demand

- Internalization of emission costs in the agricultural sector

- Halt of deforestation increased land rents

- Multiple effects, incl. making bioenergy more competitive

• Extended and enforced protection of remaining natural ecosystems

10



Conclusion

• Faster productivity growth in the global livestock sector is crucial for achieving several objectives, e.g.: - land-minimized growth of world food supply - mitigation of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

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• Increasing costs in the global energy system and more stringent climate/environmental policies will work as additional drivers of higher livestock productivity



Extra

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Model

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• The scenarios were constructed with the ALBIO (Agricultural Land use and BIOmass flows) model, developed at Chalmers

• Some features of the ALBIO model: - physical variables estimating land use and biomass flows in the global food and agriculture system

- bottom-up type: calculates required land use and crops/pasture production in a region given a stated population and food use per capita

- feed intake by livestock is calculated by estimating the feed energy requirements of animals, using basic bio-energetic equations (input parameters: liveweight, physical activity, milk production, etc)



Permanent pasture areas in 2030

14

539

602

691

182

584

698

598

109

523

471

577

108

423 423

455

84

423

391372

73

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

East Asia Latin America & Caribb. N. America & Oceania Europe incl. Russia

Million ha

1997/99

Reference scenario

Increased livestockproductivity

Ruminant meatsubstitution

Minor vegetariantransition & less foodwastage




Feed use per unit of product in 2030

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

1993

Ref

IP

1993

Ref

IP

1993

Ref

IP

1993

Ref

IP

1993

Ref

IP

Feed eaten per unit produced (gross energy basis)

Cereals, starchy roots, soybean & pulses

Hay, silage & other forage crops

Cropland pasture

Permanent pasture

Non-agricultural herbage & browse

Crop residues

Food processing by-products & food waste

Beef

Pork

Poultrymeat

Mutton

Cattle whole-

milk


Livestock productivity, global land use and climate change · 2012. 4. 3. · Cereals, starchy...

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