Livestock policy paradoxes: Promulgating a crisis?

Or providing a solution?16th Asian Australasian Animal Production Congress Sustainable Livestock Production in the Perspective of Food Security,

Policy, Genetic Resources and Climate Change

Yogyakarta, Indonesia 10–14 November 2014

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

How to feed 10 billion people?

Food price crisis 2007/08:What can we learn?

Abundant food: Dealing with excess

Food comes from the supermarket(NOT)

Agricultural investment as portion of ODAfell from >15% in mid 80’s to <2.5% by early 2000

A ‘perfect storm’?

8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

FAO food price index

The crisis:The doubling of food prices

Mixed benefits:The poor lost out

Global aggregate food balance is not a good indicator of food security--Distribution matters as much

Trade matters: but its not a perfect system as the food price crisis showed –local markets matter too

Secret or privileged information:in a ‘black box -food stockpiles

The rush for resources to produce food –land grab or foreign direct investment?

The Livestock Revolution:Another ‘perfect storm’? Or a new opportunity?

% increase in production of livestock products:2000–2050

Raw milk Monogastric meat & eggs

Ruminant meat0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

EuropeLatin AmericaAfrica/Middle East

%

Herrero et al. 2014

17FAO, 2012Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030

Percentage growth in demandfor livestock products: 2000−2030

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 20000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Billion ha land per 1 million population

Thousands of ha per person

Less than 2 ha per person −shared with at least 5 animals

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Scenario #2Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Scenario #2Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how

Scenario #3Africa meets

livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems

Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries

BMGF, FAO, ILRI

Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries

Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)

% production by smallholder livestock farms

Beef Chicken meat

Sheep/goat meat

Milk Pork Eggs

East Africa(≤ 6 milking animals)

60-90

Bangladesh (< 3ha land)

65 77 78 65 77

India(< 2ha land)

75 92 92 69 71

Vietnam (small scale)

80

Philippines (backyard)

50 35

What policies can make the biggest difference?

1 Encourage smallholder competitivenesswith scale-neutral policies

2 Facilitate broad-based growthwith potential to transform rural economies

3 Enhance local markets and market access

4 Mitigate zoonoses and food safety risks

5 Protect the environment(balanced incentives)

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008

1. Food is both a private and public good – often a national security issue

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008

1. Food is both a private and public good – often a national security issue

2. Paying attention to food policy and investment is critical

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008

1. Food is both a private and public good – often a national security issue

2. Paying attention to food policy and investment is critical

3. In a crisis, global solidarity goes out the window

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008

1. Food is both a private and public good – often a national security issue

2. Paying attention to food policy and investment is critical

3. In a crisis, global solidarity goes out the window

4. The poor, individuals and countries, suffer more from such crises

5. Governments hesitate to commit to agriculture, particularly livestock, and to smallholders

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008 (cont.)

5. Governments hesitate to commit to agriculture, particularly livestock, and to smallholders

6. To remove this hesitancy, smallholders must contribute to national food and nutritional security, economic growth and transformation – not just to their own self-sufficiency

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008 (cont.)

5. Governments hesitate to commit to agriculture, particularly livestock, and to smallholders

6. To remove this hesitancy, smallholders must contribute to national food and nutritional security, economic growth and transformation – not just to their own self-sufficiency

7. The livestock sector offers some of the best opportunities

What we learned during and sincethe food price crisis of 2008 (cont.)

Thank you!

Artworks

SLIDES 1, 2: Paul Klee, ‘Colourful Group’, 1939

SLIDE 3: James and Michael Fitzgerald, ‘Leptosome’ (via theprojecttwins.com)

SLIDE 4: Cow Butcher Diagram – ‘Use Every Part of the Cow’ cuts of beef poster (via Etsy)

SLIDE 5: Azzaharahman (via Instagram)

SLIDES 1, 6: Martin Devine, ‘Irish Farm’ (via ebsqart.com)

SLIDE 7: Ancient Australian aboriginal art (via lancelot47.livejournal.com)

SLIDE 8: Marc Chagall, ‘A Wheatfield on a Summer's Afternoon’, 1942 (via Wikiart)

SLIDE 9: Brian Cairns, ‘Eggs’ (via briancairns.com)

SLIDE 10: ‘La vaquita parda’ (via tierradehojas.blogspot.com.es)

SLIDE 11: Fabio Sironi illustration, printed in the 2010 calendar of Italian NGO Amani (via AFRONLINE)

SLIDES 1, 12: Yuki Sasameya: ‘Untitled’ (via en.tis-home.com)

Artworks (cont.)

SLIDE 13: Nguyen Phan Chanh, 'La Marchand de Riz' ('The Rice Seller'), 1932

SLIDE 14: Abner Graboff illustration, ‘The Hungry Goat’ (via stickersandstuff.blogspot.com.es)

SLIDE 15: Animal silhouettes (via Twitter.com)

SLIDE 20: Gunnlaugur Scheving (via http://samuel.is)

SLIDE 22: ‘Keep Calm and Milk a Cow’ poster (via Etsy)

SLIDE 23: ‘More Livestock, More Manure’ poster, Que Binh, Vietnam, 1972

SLIDE 24: ‘Family Farms Produce 70% of the Food Consumed in the World’ poster (via www.foodtank.com)

SLIDES 25, 30: Olivia Fraser, ‘Blue Dawn’, 2012 (via bbc.co.uk)

SLIDE 26: Artist unknown, Vietnam poster (via animalsvietnam.wordpress.com)

SLIDE 27: Kauniste Maatila, ‘Green Farm’; handprinted kitchen linens inspired by 60s & 70s Finnish textiles (via store.mjolk.ca)

SLIDES 28, 29: Simi Gauba, ‘Tell-a-tale’ (via tigerprint.typepad.com)

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

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