Liverpool diocese dayReflect learn change adapt

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Church Army’s Research unit

Seeing and sharingwhat God is doing in mission

With lessons from 2 parishes and the diocese’s young churches the fresh expressions of Church

An ongoing process

Reflect

2

Learn

Change

Adapt

Reflect

Etcetera

I like watching

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The process can happen two ways1. Start with reflection

1. Analyse the now – and have an idea2. Change behaviour/ practice to fit with it3. Some say it’s a Greek [theory first] view

2. Start because of an event1. Which leads to change of mind and practice2. Some say it’s a more Hebrew [whole life] view

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two examples• Idea first

– Reflection: I’m getting older – better plan retirement

• Event first– Spouse suddenly dies – what shall I do now?

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• Old Testament– Exodus event: – Exile event:

• New Testament– Incarnation – a novel event– Resurrection – equally novel

Event led view: We can’t go on as we are

Saying so provokes resistance as well as desire for change

Fred [the penguin who sees the problem], presents it to a council

Stunned silence follows

No-No a senior penguin, who does their weather forecasting, angrily dismisses the evidence as temporary seasonal meltKotter, Our Iceberg is melting p 27-28

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-15% -10% -5%

C of E dioceses: mission & financial strength+

+Mission: 5 yr attend change

Sustainable Static

Strategic

Unsustainable

-

-

5% 10% 15%

+2.5 million

-2.5 million

Income vsministry costs

Each dot is one diocese7

• Diocesan Population 2012: 1,567,000• Population 2006-12: +2.5%• Average Weekly Attendance 2006-12: -2.7%• % population attending CE 1.82%

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An event view: The mission time bomb

De-churched: Approx 30%

Non-churched: Approx 60%

Attending: approx 10%

___= % PopAttended<15 yrs

____= AttendedIn 1998

The % of people furthest away from living contact with or effective knowledge of the church is growing.

Age of population

% of population

Most churches don’t know this, nor shaped to meet it

76% of ‘converts’ came from the dechurched – the shrinking pond

9

The Big [tidal] Change

• “Going” to those beyond the church is flooding in

10

• “Come” to church is flowing away

11

V

C

St Agatha’s Anywhere

= attender

V = vicar

C = curate

= Parish

12

Place of worship

= Railway line

Add features that shape how the area works

And it changes the perceptions of what is possible13

V

C

St Agatha’s Anywhere

= attender

V = vicar

C = curate

= Parish

Place of worship

= Railway line

14

= LocalAuthorityHousing

And some social / historical factors

And fresh choices appear15

V

C

St Agatha’s Anywhere

= attender

V = vicar

C = curate

= Parish

= state housing

= railway

16

Basic Choices in ‘go to them’ mode

Progression – means building on strength

Should something start based around where the curate and some people already live?

Pioneer – means

responding to weakness

What might be the way forward on the local

authority housing estate? 17

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Liverpool’s 78 fresh expressions of Church as of 2012:

Entirely Pro

gressi

on

Majority P

rogre

ssion

Equally Pro

gressi

on & Pioneer

Majority P

ioneer

Entirely Pioneer

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Pioneer / Progression

Reflect … then Learn

There are many things and ways to learn 19

1066 and all that

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Key elements in every fresh expression of church [fxC]

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‘Fresh expression’ = contextualised & missional ‘of Church’ = the identity is ecclesial

H2O Hydrogen with Oxygen = waterLeave either out and it isn’t water

fxC = M2E?

56 cases excluded from 135 examined – 42%

• A - Arch on from fxC or towards an

fxC

• I - Infrequent [< monthly]

• N - Not an fxC

• 2 - Duplicate record

• NY - Not Yet: planned not started

• L - Left C of E

Liverpool

11

5

38

2

0

0

22

Not an fxC included: • 16 rebadged existing services, small groups or social events • 7 outreach projects to bring people back to existing churches [M not E]• 9 new events for Christians [E not M]

Water exists as

23

liquid

ice

steam

Just because its Missional & Ecclesial - doesn’t tell you what form the fxC will take – just like with water

What kinds of fxC

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Messy Church only 12%[Average Dioc 1-11 32%]

For older shut-ins 8%Adults only 32%

Those aiming to be for all ages 55%

Kind Nos %

Liverpool Alternative Worship 8 6%

Base Ecclesial Community 0 0%

Café Church 6 5%

Cell Plant - scratch or parallel 3 2%

Children Focussed Church 12 9%

Cluster based Church 9 7%

Community Development Plant 7 5%

Messy Church 16 12%

Mid Week Service 5 4%

Multiple Congregation 4 3%

Network Church 8 6%

New Monastic Community 2 2%

New Traditional Service 1 1%

Older Peoples Church 10 8%

School based Church 7 5%

Seeker Church 2 2%

Special Interest Group 11 9%

Traditional Church Plant 7 5%

Under Fives Church 7 5%

Youth Church 4 3%

Choose what’s right for your context

Nearly all kinds listed proved to be needed[Many double classify]

25

Liverpool fxC:

Majorit

y Neig

hbourhood

Equall

y Neig

hbourhood and N

etwork

Majorit

y Netw

ork0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Serving neighbourhood and network

Networks = 35% of the picture - the average we’ve found elsewhereBoth neighbourhood/parish and wider networks matter in our mission

26

Liverpool fxC:

21%

27%27

%

13%

12%

How do =they disciple people?

Not at that stage1-1Small GroupsCoursesServing in teams

79% of examples have been taking some steps in discipleship

Formal Socialisation

Non Formal

Intentional Practical

Traditional

Types of Learning

FeaturesThey share …

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Formal Socialisation

Non Formal

Intentional Practical

TraditionalTeacher

Mentor/Craftsman

Parent

What are the sources of learning?

28

Formal Socialisation

Non Formal Jesus & discipleship

Intentional Practical

Traditional

a disciple is like his teacher Matt 10:24

Mk 3.14a …to be with him

Mk 3.14b … he could send them

How many courses did the disciples take?

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Tradition involved in fxC

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NB Many cases cited > 1 tradition

Evangelical Charismatic Central A/Catholic

Liverpool:

Average Dioc 1-11 61.9% 31.6% 42.3% 10.2%

All traditions are able to start something further if they want to

Liverpool 72% 23% 24% 9%

Time for an interview

31

George Lings talks withJanet Roberts

From St Nicholas, Blundellsands

“Questions To ponder”

?

??

?

?

?

?

?

What are your main reflections on what challenges and opportunities you face locally?

What are you discovering about how ‘learning’ happens better?

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Reflect, Learn … Change

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Maybe churches are like this

Some variety but lots of similarity

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Maybe fxC are like this

35

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Liverpool fxC:

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

fxC adult and child attendance

Adult atten-dance figures

Child atten-dance figures

77 records of fxC active in 2011/12

No.

of p

eopl

e

Adults 1693Children 1240Total 2933

Liverpool AWA (2012) 28500fxC attendance 2933% of whole 10.3%

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Number of fxC 78Number of churches 256fxC percentage 30.5%

A large collection of small churches

Liverpool:

under 20 20 to 29 30 to 49 50 to 69 70 to 99 100+0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Number of fxC by size

Average fxC size 38.1

Average dioc. Church size 114.9

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Liverpool fxC:

Christian De-Churched Non-Churched0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Who was the mission task to reach?

AimResult

How does that compare with who is in the older churches?

39

What was the Status of the Leader?Liverpool fxC:

57%

43%

1992-98

35%

65%

1999-05

Lay Ordained

53%47%

2006-12

Incumbents and Priest-in-Charge 25%Assistant clergy 19%

Readers and Church Army (3%) 11%The ‘lay-lay’ 39%

28.3%

71.4%

LayLay leaders by gender

LayLay Male

LayLay Female

60.2%

39.8%

Non-LayLay leaders by gender

Other Male

Other Female

Examining differences: lay-lay led fxC & the rest

Type Full time Part time Spare time

Lay-lay 9.1% 22.5% 68.1%

All others 74.0% 15.1% 10.9%

Type Stipendiary Locally paid Voluntary

Lay-lay 1.4% 17.0% 81.2%

All others 67.9% 6.7% 25.3% 40

Lay-Lay

Non Lay-Lay

4.3%

10.7%

11.6%

19.8%

7.6%

11.2%

17.0%

19.5%

16.7%

3.0%

32.6%

25.6%

5.8%

8.4%

10.5%

8.1%

13.4%

6.7%

4.3%

17.9%

fxC type by leader status(10 most common fxC types)

Alternative Worship Café Church Community Development Plant

Child Focused Church Cluster based Church Messy Church

Multiple Sunday Congregation Network Church Special Interest Group

Traditional Church Plant

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Leader types & frequency of meeting

Weekly Fortnightly Monthly0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

47.5%

8.3%

44.2%

53.0%

7.9%

39.1%

LayLay

Non-LayLay

42

A rough indication of comparable church size

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LayLay NonLayLay0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

20.9 21.7

14.713.5

35.6 35.3

LayLay and all other leaders by fxc average size

Average adultsAverage ChildrenAverage size

This is not exact as a significant minority of fxC have had >1 leader over time

Lay-Lay Non Lay-Lay0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2.7 2.9

7.26.8

3.6 3.8

fxC growth ratios by leader status

Adult Growth Ratio

Child Growth Ratio

TOTAL Growth Ratio

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How well do they grow?

Christian De-Churched Non-Churched0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Lay-LayNon Lay-Lay

45

NB In reality these are but rough proportions – not precise percentages

Leader’s view of attenders’ background

Growth patterns over time

46

LayLay All other0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

25.7% 26.6%

6.9%11.4%

36.0% 23.4%

9.7%

9.3%

21.7%29.3%

LayLay and All Other leaders by growth patterns

Grow Shrink

Fluctuate

Quick Plat

Grow Plat

Cont Grow

NB 37% of lay-lay e.g.s and 33% of all others are less than two years old so no calculation was made in those cases.

One measure of maturing

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LayLay Non-LayLay0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

46.0%

51.2%

45.3% 45.3%

27.5%

36.7%

32.2% 34.9%

20.3% 19.3%

LayLay and Non-Lay-Lay led fxC by discipleship method

Groups

1-1

Courses

Serving

Not yet

3 self as taking responsibility

48

LayLay Non-LayLay0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

58.7%

47.0%

42.8%

36.0%

30.1% 29.8%

20.3% 20.0%

LayLay and Non-LayLay fxc by 3 self

Self Gov

Self Fin

Self Repro

Not yet

Sacrament of Communion

49

LayLay Non-LayLay0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

33.7%

49.8%

42.0%

32.8%

5.1%

2.1%16.3%

10.5%

7.2% 5.8%

LayLay and Non-LayLay fxc by Communion

Impractical

Don't see the need

No Presider

Not Yet

Yes

Sacrament of Baptism

50

LayLay Non-LayLay0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

32.2%43.0%

39.9%

35.3%

4.0%

1.6%18.1%

14.7%

8.3% 6.3%

LayLay and Non-LayLay fxc by Baptism

Impractical

Don't see the need

No Presider

Not Yet

Yes

Overall

• The Lay-lay are different in respect of:– Gender, employment [hence cost]

and time given• They do pretty much as well in

terms of:– Mission effectiveness– Seeking ecclesial maturity

51

Sacramental life may take time

52

Liverpool fxC:

53%47%

Do the fxC offer Communion?

No

Yes

71%7%

22%

7%

Reasons fxCs do not offer Communion

Not Yet

No Presider

See No Need

ImpracticalAverage dioc. 1-1138.6%

Reflect, learn, change … Adapt

53

54

Frequency:Weekly 54%Fortnightly 11%Monthly 35%

Liverpool:

Mon Tues Weds Thur Fri Sat Sun0

5

10

15

20

25

30

fxC meeting daysN

o. o

f fxC

70.6% are non Sunday e.g.s

Average dioc1-11 is only 58.3%

Key messageBe flexible in face of variety

55

1992-98 1999-05 2006-120

5

10

15

20

25

Venue Type

ChurchChurch HallSecular

No.

of f

xCLiverpool fxC:

Key messageBe flexible in face of variety

Church building not used as venue = 61.3%

56

Motivations for fxC

Liverpool:

1992-98 2006-111999-05

Diocesan Initiative Growth PhilosophyProvide Increased Diversity Unreached People GroupInadequate Penetration of Parish New Housing OpportunityPhysical restriction at Mother Church Other

GrowCulturalGeographyFull up

Key messageBe flexible in face of variety

Time for an interview

57

George Lings talks withAndrew Stott

From the 4 Saints Team, L14

Reflect, learn, change, adapt – reflect …

58

I wish

59

1992-98 1999-05 2006-110

10

20

30

40

50

60

When were your 78 fxC started?N

o. o

f fxC

A sharply rising trend since the Mission shaped Church report in 2004

Liverpool:

Look how far the diocese has come

Ratio sent to attending now

60

Sent Now0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

AdultsChildren

Sent Now Ratio Adults 504 1693 3.4 Children 91 1240 13.6

TOTALS 595 2933 4.9

Liverpool fxC:

The ratio means 390% growth, over time

Look who’s come, nearly 4 for every 1 sent

61

Liverpool fxC:

2 open questions:Is 30% reaching a plateau a cause of concern or celebration?What’s best to do, if a young church reaches its natural unit size?

62

Liverpool fxC:

1 to 2

3 to 12

13 to 19

20 to 49

50+

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Size of Team taken

1992-981999-052006-12

The classic small team size chosen [73%] meansMany more parish churches could do this

Small is possible

Well done on the progress so far

63

“Questions To ponder”

?

??

?

?

?

?

?

What signs of a response to a wake up call do you see?

What do you attribute it to: desperation, realism, seeing opportunities, hard- nosed finance, God, … other?

64

65

Liverpool fxC:

City Centre

Urban

Urban Prio

rity Area

Loca

l Authorit

y Estate

Loca

l Priv

ate Estate

Private Housin

g Estate

Suburban

Town

New Town

Expanded Villa

geRural

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

What was the geographical area planted in?

2006-121999-051992-98

No.

of f

xC

66

Liverpool fxC:

Within the Parish Within the Deanery

Within the Diocese Beyond the Diocese

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Where was the fxC planted in relation to the sending church?

1992-981999-052006-12

No.

of f

xC

67

Gender and Work Status of the LeaderLiverpool fxC:

Full Time Part Time Spare Time0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

MaleFemale

Pursing sacramental life

68

Liverpool fxC:

79%

21%

Do the fxC offer Baptism?

No

Yes

52%39%

10%

Reasons fxCs do not offer Baptism

Not Yet

No Presider

See No Need

Impractical