Linking London Key Sectors Report and Staff Guide

24th July 2013

Sue Betts/Andrew JonesDirector/Deputy Director

http://www.lilianbaylis.com/

Introduction

• Desire to improve the accuracy/appropriateness of higher level skills course development

• Difference between LM Information and LM Intelligence • Complexity of the London Story• Changing labour market • Work with UKCES and the key sectors’ report (AJ) • Focus Group contribution (Appendix C) • The preparation of a web-based Staff Guide or toolkit• Conclusion and what next?

UKCES: 4 Key Labour Market Assessments

• National Strategic Skills Audit for England, Skills for Jobs: Today and Tomorrow 2010

• UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2012

• Employer Perspectives Survey 2012

• Working Futures 2012

UKCES: Key Findings of first 3 reports

• Expansion in jobs: most likely within higher skilled occupations (managers, professionals, associate professional & technical occupations)

• Skills shortage vacancies: professionals and associate professionals, skilled trades

• ‘Replacement demand’ is a key factor• Under-employment: employees not fully utilising their

skills is an issue• Work readiness of education leavers: college v school

leavers• Workforce Development • Apprenticeships

UKCES: Working Futures - Key Findings

• The working age population is projected to increase by 10% between

2010 and 2020 in London and London’s labour force predicted to grow by a third of a million.

• Unemployment is projected to decline, with the largest decline in

London, where the number unemployed will be a quarter lower in 2020 than in 2010.

• Higher level occupations expected to show the most significant increases in employment over the next decade

• Replacement demands will lead to job openings for all industries and occupations including those in which the net level of employment is expected to decline significantly.

  

Future employment needs - Where will the growth come from in London?

Projected UK employment change by sector (% change) in London and England between 2010-2020

Change(‘000s)

-13-137

-7-80

3-5

21194

73329

2791,083

SectorManufacturing

Non-market Services

Primary Sector & Utilities

Construction

Trade accommodation & transport

Business & other services

7(Source: Working Futures)

% change

London

England

AgricultureMining and quarrying

Food drink and tobaccoEngineering

Rest of manufacturingElectricity and gas

Water and sewerageConstruction

Wholesale and retail tradeTransport and storage

Accommodation and foodMedia

Information technologyFinance and insurance

Real estateProfessional services

Support servicesPublic admin. and defence

EducationHealth and social work

Arts and entertainmentOther services

All industries

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Projections of Employment for 22 Industry Groups

% change 2010-2020

Percentage change

Indu

stry

All occupations Corporate managers and directors

Other managers and proprietorsScience, research, engineering and technology professionals

Health professionalsTeaching and educational professionals

Business, media and public service professionalsScience, engineering and technology associate professionals

Health and social care associate professionalsProtective service occupations

Culture, media and sports occupationsBusiness and public service associate professionals

Administrative occupationsSecretarial and related occupations

Skilled agricultural and related tradesSkilled metal, electrical and electronic trades

Skilled construction and building tradesTextiles, printing and other skilled trades

Caring personal service occupationsLeisure, travel and related personal service occupations

Sales occupationsCustomer service occupations

Process, plant and machine operativesTransport and mobile machine drivers and operatives

Elementary trades and related occupationsElementary administration and service occupations

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Projections of Employment by Occupation

% change 2010-2020

UKCES: Working Futures: Occupational Prospects

10

Net Job Openings

(‘000s)Occupation

Managers

Professional

Associate Professional

Admin & Secretarial

Skilled trades

Caring, Leisure etc

Sales

Operatives

Elementary

327

663

464

143

131

169

106

65

170

Projected England Job Openings 2010-2020

Job Creation

Replacement Demand

(Source: Working Futures)

We decided that without some acknowledgement of the considerable differences between local boroughs the report would not be helpful We studied data on Barking and Dagenham, Kensington and Chelsea and Camden – see report We hope this illustrates the diverse nature of London and the need to communicate regularly with the Inward Investment and Enterprise Teams in your locality

Local Borough Study – 3 Boroughs

• This is work in progress – paper copies available • It has been informed by our work and research, and the

recommendations of the focus group • It needs to be updated and kept ‘live’ • We hope you find it useful internally with your staff and

suggestions for improvements are welcome• Linking London will be responsible for uploading and

updating the guide on our website www.linkinglondon.ac.uk and by linking through to IT at the AOC London.

The web based staff guide

HEADLINES

• ‘Boom time as London drives recovery in UK’ – 17th May 2013

• ‘Our economy’s problem isn’t the dominance of finance – it’s the dominance of London’ – 26th May 2013

Conclusion

• We are emerging from a ‘steady state’ of affairs

• 11% of HE in FE• Progression to HE slightly declining

Conclusion

Our work on this project BLP has taught us several things:• Data is out there, but complex and often aspirational• We will continue to work with UKCES and urge you to do the same

(£4m)• Local is very important and regular contact with local council critical• Toolkit will be kept ‘live’ so please contribute• Professional and managerial demand will continue• Begs the development of core and optional modules• Government needs an industrial strategy *• It’s time for a change – for FECs to refresh their own higher level skills

strategy• We’re here to help!!