Linking Flood Risk to Resilience...Benefit weighted by the probability the flood will occur (from...
Transcript of Linking Flood Risk to Resilience...Benefit weighted by the probability the flood will occur (from...
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MERIT: A Decision Support Tool for Risk-based Resilience
Investment
Funded by: US Department of Homeland Security Science & Technology Directorate
Linking Flood Risk to Resilience
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Communities need to understand their risk, but risk models are
designed for experts
Communities are unique and resilience means something
different to each community
How does a community prioritize investments while taking into
account risk, resilience, and their own priorities?
How do we give a community the information they need to start the conversation?
Linking risk to resilience for practical decision making
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ASFPM Conference
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The gap: Linking flood risk to practical recovery and mitigation decisions
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β’ Intuitive cues
β’ Map process and navigation up front
β’ Consistent use of color, font, and terms
β’ Use plain language
β’ Provide anchors to daily experienceβ’ Provide a reference point for flood depths (e.g., waist-high water)
Risk communication and human-centered design
Melkonyan, 2011; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016; Vaughan and Buss, 1998
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
What are you getting yourself into?
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Who are you? Identify your community
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
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Building on what you already know
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Developed a rapid risk assessment method in
collaboration with FEMA, drawing on NFIE and
NWM methods
Supports rapid overlay with infrastructure and
population
No subject matter expertise required
Deterministic; assesses range of events
Flood mapping: Rapid risk assessment
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Riverineβ’ Interpolation of riverine gage flows
β’ Lateral projection and compare water level to DEM for inundation
Coastalβ’ Interpolate select coastal gages with still water elevations liked to AEP (from
RENCI)
β’ Project inland, comparing water elevation to DEM
Estuarineβ’ Proof of concept takes simple maximum between riverine and coastal
inundation estimates
Flood mapping: Rapid risk assessment
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What goes underwater?
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Which impacts are of highest priority? Choose infrastructure priorities
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June 2018
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Which impacts are of highest priority? Choose population priorities
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Choose scenarios for investment ranking
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How do these investments address resilience?
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Prioritizing resilience characteristics
β’ Research-based crosswalk between investments and
relevant community resilience characteristics
β’ How might this mitigation investment also enhance
community resilience?
β’ Used core domains to categorize resilience
characteristics and to summarize in terms familiar to
users (e.g., health, environmental, economic, social, etc.)
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June 2018
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Design Investments:What can you do to mitigate flood impacts?
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
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Design Investments:View on map for context
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Design Investments β Completed
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June 2018
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Confirm and submit to view results
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
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Mean investment benefit is used to rank investments
relative to each other
Benefit weighted by the probability the flood will occur
(from water gage history statistics)
Weights are calculated as:
π π€π = π΄πΈπ π€π+1 β π΄πΈπ π€π
Mean investment benefit is weighted sum:
< π > =
π
π π€π π(π€π)
Linking Impacts to Benefit
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Rank investments for comparative analysis and communication
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Link investments to resilience
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Keep it simple. Drive discussion.
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Complete initial MERIT prototype
Gather feedback from Federal stakeholders and community end-users
Revise prototype workflow and visualizations
Publish inundation mapping and resilience cross-walk
Define integrations with Federal partners
FEMA programs (Community Hazard Mitigation Plans, CRS, HMGP )
NIST Community Resilience Guide
Build the fully-integrated, robust platform
Next Steps
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ASFPM Conference
June 2018
1-800-320-4330 PIN 247236#
Ellie Graeden, PhD
CEO
Boulder, Colorado
www.talusanalytics.com
MERIT development funded by DHS Science & Technology Directorate
Contact information