Online Resource 12. Regional Variability in POL3.7 Carbon Storage Flow Impact in Figures and TablesClimatic Change Article: Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the United States

Authors: David Mills, Russell Jones, Karen Carney, Alexis St. Juliana, Richard Ready, Allison Crimmins, Jeremy Martinich, Kate Shouse, Benjamin DeAngelo, and Erwan Monier

Corresponding author: David Mills, Stratus Consulting Inc., DMills@stratusconsulting.com

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Fig. 12.1 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) WIND = 1

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Fig. 12.2 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13

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Fig. 12.3 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14

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Fig. 12.4 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26

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Fig. 12.5 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28

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Fig. 12.6 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under Community Climate System Model (CCSM)

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Fig. 12.7 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)

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Table 12.1 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 1

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 1, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)

California North Ops 0.004 (0.026) 0.036 (0.035) 0.012 (0.016) (0.033) (0.015) 0.024 (0.019) (0.068)

California South Ops (0.002) (0.006) 0.010 (0.017) 0.008 (0.008) 0.012 0.009 0.003 (0.012) (0.003)

East Basin 0.001 (0.017) 0.004 (0.013) 0.012 0.031 0.031 (0.081) (0.015) (0.016) (0.064)

Eastern Area (0.028) (0.155) 0.026 0.192 0.258 0.177 0.131 0.014 (0.015) (0.118) 0.480

Eastern Great Basin 0.016 (0.030) (0.016) 0.014 (0.019) 0.020 0.011 (0.027) 0.012 0.039 0.020

Northern Rockies (0.089) 0.074 (0.017) (0.064) 0.097 (0.065) 0.121 (0.125) (0.056) (0.151) (0.275)

Northwest (0.027) 0.051 (0.072) 0.031 (0.004) 0.158 (0.068) 0.036 0.110 0.016 0.231

Rocky Mountain (0.000) 0.094 (0.189) 0.038 0.036 (0.248) 0.355 (0.357) (0.125) (0.024) (0.420)

Southern Area (0.147) 0.234 0.276 (0.460) 0.234 0.417 0.115 (0.557) 0.330 (0.007) 0.436

Southwest (0.066) 0.196 (0.187) 0.032 (0.121) 0.062 0.011 (0.081) 0.060 (0.015) (0.108)

Western Great Basin 0.011 (0.030) 0.047 (0.013) (0.004) 0.021 0.011 0.004 0.016 0.021 0.085

Total (0.326) 0.386 (0.082) (0.294) 0.509 0.548 0.697 (1.180) 0.343 (0.286) 0.316

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Table 12.1 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 1

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 1, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage flows (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)California North Ops $0.56 ($3.40) $4.36 ($3.81) $1.33 ($1.30) ($2.22) ($0.61) $1.06 ($0.74) ($4.77)

California South Ops ($0.21) ($0.79) $1.14 ($1.88) $0.90 ($0.66) $0.82 $0.37 $0.01 ($0.43) ($0.74)

East Basin $0.11 ($2.18) $0.68 ($1.60) $1.21 $2.43 $2.31 ($4.64) ($0.48) ($0.67) ($2.84)

Eastern Area ($3.68) ($20.18) $3.32 $20.34 $22.91 $14.25 $9.41 ($0.28) $0.43 ($4.65) $41.87

Eastern Great Basin $2.07 ($3.86) ($2.31) $1.40 ($1.60) $1.54 $0.83 ($1.66) $0.63 $1.23 ($1.72)

Northern Rockies ($11.52) $9.61 ($2.48) ($7.12) $9.13 ($4.44) $8.74 ($7.22) ($2.30) ($5.75) ($13.35)

Northwest ($3.46) $6.75 ($8.67) $3.30 $0.17 $11.80 ($4.64) $2.16 $5.14 $0.66 $13.22

Rocky Mountain ($0.01) $12.17 ($22.80) $4.14 $3.50 ($19.42) $26.07 ($21.10) ($4.96) ($1.52) ($23.94)

Southern Area ($19.04) $29.75 $32.64 ($49.58) $22.45 $34.33 $10.54 ($31.63) $13.38 ($1.81) $41.03

Southwest ($8.54) $25.29 ($23.19) $3.92 ($10.49) $4.98 $1.18 ($4.87) $2.66 ($0.65) ($9.70)

Western Great Basin $1.45 ($3.83) $5.44 ($1.55) ($0.39) $1.67 $0.81 $0.21 $0.61 $0.71 $5.12

Total ($42.28) $49.34 ($11.87) ($32.44) $49.12 $45.17 $53.85 ($69.28) $16.17 ($13.63) $44.18

Totals may not sum due to rounding.SCC: social cost of carbon.

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Table 12.2 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 13, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)

California North Ops 0.002 0.018 (0.002) 0.000 (0.002) (0.004) (0.011) 0.004 (0.030) 0.009 0.002

California South Ops 0.006 0.023 (0.003) 0.005 0.001 (0.030) 0.022 0.013 (0.045) 0.012 0.006

East Basin 0.036 0.035 (0.049) (0.010) 0.068 (0.067) (0.048) (0.054) (0.031) 0.074 0.036

Eastern Area 0.175 0.185 (0.084) 0.072 0.409 (0.356) (0.092) (0.182) (0.392) 0.354 0.175

Eastern Great Basin 0.032 0.059 (0.041) 0.026 (0.079) 0.034 (0.087) 0.106 (0.080) (0.005) 0.032

Northern Rockies 0.291 0.160 (0.294) 0.051 (0.226) (0.097) (0.132) 0.004 (0.037) (0.168) 0.291

Northwest 0.032 (0.055) (0.046) 0.158 (0.023) 0.162 0.155 0.020 0.018 (0.078) 0.032

Rocky Mountain 0.285 0.191 (0.241) (0.072) (0.016) (0.332) (0.281) 0.086 0.008 (0.368) 0.285

Southern Area 0.232 0.331 (0.104) (0.851) 0.283 (0.723) (0.692) 0.449 (0.154) 0.569 0.232

Southwest (0.008) 0.089 (0.121) 0.001 (0.010) (0.049) (0.056) (0.018) 0.005 (0.015) (0.008)

Western Great Basin 0.007 0.045 (0.034) 0.021 (0.007) (0.004) (0.023) 0.115 (0.070) 0.008 0.007

Total 1.090 1.080 (1.018) (0.598) 0.400 (1.465) (1.245) 0.543 (0.809) 0.391 1.090

IGSM-CAM WIND = 13, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage flows (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)

California North Ops $0.28 $2.33 ($0.09) ($0.01) ($0.05) ($0.25) ($0.78) $0.14 ($1.50) $0.34 $0.41

California $0.80 $3.00 ($0.44) $0.56 $0.08 ($2.45) $1.74 $0.46 ($2.20) $0.53 $2.09

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Table 12.2 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalSouth Ops

East Basin $4.64 $4.46 ($6.18) ($1.05) $6.25 ($5.47) ($2.72) ($2.37) ($1.42) $2.68 ($1.16)

Eastern Area $22.66 $23.60 ($10.70) $8.25 $37.81 ($28.29) ($5.20) ($7.87) ($18.60) $12.08 $33.75

Eastern Great Basin $4.16 $7.52 ($5.39) $2.60 ($7.42) $2.10 ($5.67) $5.68 ($3.66) ($0.14) ($0.23)

Northern Rockies $37.77 $20.61 ($36.88) $4.92 ($20.47) ($7.73) ($8.84) $0.75 ($1.48) ($6.26) ($17.60)

Northwest $4.20 ($7.15) ($5.89) $15.38 ($2.29) $12.73 $9.33 $0.96 $0.63 ($2.97) $24.92

Rocky Mountain $37.01 $24.38 ($30.76) ($7.37) ($1.45) ($27.51) ($16.85) $7.83 ($0.02) ($13.52) ($28.26)

Southern Area $30.05 $42.06 ($14.31) ($90.86) $25.56 ($61.46) ($42.73) $28.29 ($7.12) $19.31 ($71.20)

Southwest ($1.07) $11.44 ($15.03) ($0.04) ($0.72) ($4.74) ($2.96) ($0.42) ($0.13) ($0.54) ($14.22)

Western Great Basin $0.92 $5.78 ($4.14) $2.13 ($0.94) ($0.48) ($1.35) $6.13 ($3.32) $0.24 $4.97

Total $141.44 $138.03 ($129.81) ($65.48) $36.38 ($123.55) ($76.04) $39.58 ($38.83) $11.75 ($66.55)

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 12.3 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 14, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)

California North Ops 0.012 (0.001) 0.012 (0.009) 0.010 (0.031) 0.016 (0.026) (0.033) 0.027 (0.023)

California South Ops 0.011 (0.035) 0.034 0.004 (0.004) (0.018) 0.031 (0.025) (0.016) (0.003) (0.021)

East Basin (0.004) 0.032 0.075 (0.057) (0.029) 0.002 (0.034) (0.019) 0.021 0.023 0.010

Eastern Area 0.006 0.122 0.667 (0.346) 0.049 (0.136) (0.065) (0.102) 0.039 0.094 0.327

Eastern Great Basin (0.056) 0.040 (0.007) (0.011) (0.033) 0.013 (0.002) 0.021 (0.102) 0.074 (0.064)

Northern Rockies 0.024 (0.013) (0.041) (0.138) 0.089 (0.179) 0.180 (0.245) (0.029) (0.023) (0.376)

Northwest (0.002) (0.096) 0.110 (0.121) 0.114 0.029 0.054 (0.012) 0.049 0.117 0.242

Rocky Mountain 0.063 (0.055) 0.189 (0.366) (0.142) 0.134 (0.232) 0.130 (0.310) 0.161 (0.428)

Southern Area (0.138) 0.434 1.258 (0.772) (0.405) (0.118) (0.447) (0.252) 0.805 0.269 0.633

Southwest 0.007 (0.030) 0.109 (0.066) (0.216) 0.128 (0.026) 0.039 (0.146) 0.000 (0.202)

Western Great Basin 0.013 (0.031) 0.021 0.028 (0.011) 0.001 0.025 (0.027) (0.027) 0.030 0.022

Total (0.064) 0.367 2.426 (1.854) (0.579) (0.176) (0.500) (0.518) 0.250 0.769 0.121

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Table 12.3 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 14, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage flows (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)California North Ops $1.57 ($0.10) $1.34 ($0.91) $0.77 ($2.46) $1.00 ($1.41) ($1.45) $0.99 ($0.67)

California South Ops $1.45 ($4.46) $4.16 $0.33 ($0.33) ($1.43) $2.19 ($1.37) ($0.75) ($0.12) ($0.32)

East Basin ($0.48) $4.23 $8.96 ($5.73) ($2.53) $0.09 ($2.14) ($1.02) $0.99 $0.93 $3.30

Eastern Area $0.73 $16.04 $80.04 ($35.16) $5.79 ($11.07) ($3.62) ($5.44) $2.22 $3.49 $53.03

Eastern Great Basin ($7.32) $5.29 ($0.95) ($1.35) ($2.91) $1.36 $0.21 $1.22 ($4.20) $2.79 ($5.88)

Northern Rockies $3.17 ($1.57) ($6.14) ($14.08) $9.57 ($14.31) $12.08 ($13.43) ($1.08) ($1.27) ($27.06)

Northwest ($0.25) ($12.38) $13.09 ($12.54) $10.58 $1.59 $3.53 ($0.93) $2.66 $4.00 $9.36

Rocky Mountain $8.21 ($7.13) $22.48 ($38.37) ($10.71) $11.87 ($14.16) $7.97 ($13.27) $5.27 ($27.84)

Southern Area ($17.95) $57.37 $150.67 ($84.79) ($34.18) ($8.42) ($28.31) ($13.87) $38.47 $10.13 $69.11

Southwest $0.84 ($3.84) $12.92 ($7.36) ($19.00) $11.57 ($1.30) $2.03 ($6.29) $0.30 ($10.12)

Western Great Basin $1.73 ($4.03) $2.68 $2.96 ($1.12) $0.12 $1.71 ($1.55) ($1.28) $1.13 $2.34

Total ($8.29) $49.42 $289.25 ($196.99) ($44.08) ($11.10) ($28.82) ($27.81) $16.02 $27.65 $65.26

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 12.4 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 26, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)

California North Ops 0.009 (0.013) (0.013) 0.024 (0.028) (0.035) (0.035) 0.018 (0.007) 0.011 (0.070)

California South Ops 0.024 (0.013) (0.039) 0.014 (0.027) 0.027 (0.025) (0.007) (0.024) (0.012) (0.083)

East Basin (0.000) 0.025 0.003 0.013 (0.106) 0.119 (0.136) 0.039 (0.065) 0.057 (0.051)

Eastern Area 0.029 0.086 0.095 0.230 (0.493) 1.042 (0.713) 0.125 (0.301) 0.294 0.395

Eastern Great Basin 0.021 (0.018) (0.047) 0.067 (0.033) (0.035) (0.079) 0.013 0.019 0.001 (0.090)

Northern Rockies (0.113) 0.133 (0.085) 0.122 (0.166) 0.090 (0.359) 0.057 (0.195) 0.116 (0.401)

Northwest 0.001 0.106 0.024 0.145 (0.107) (0.062) (0.077) (0.108) 0.072 0.213 0.206

Rocky Mountain (0.282) 0.387 0.106 (0.038) (0.108) 0.055 (0.664) 0.205 (0.265) 0.055 (0.548)

Southern Area (0.160) 0.650 0.181 (0.348) (0.404) 0.195 (0.592) 0.480 (0.085) 0.384 0.301

Southwest 0.161 (0.125) (0.013) (0.100) 0.064 0.018 (0.251) 0.145 (0.104) 0.048 (0.157)

Western Great Basin 0.028 (0.034) 0.012 (0.010) (0.038) (0.008) (0.038) 0.036 0.001 (0.011) (0.062)

Total (0.283) 1.185 0.225 0.119 (1.447) 1.407 (2.970) 1.002 (0.953) 1.156 (0.559)

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Table 12.4 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 26, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage flows (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)California North Ops $1.17 ($1.69) ($1.68) $2.60 ($2.75) ($2.75) ($2.29) $0.98 ($0.16) $0.35 ($6.20)

California South Ops $3.06 ($1.73) ($4.60) $1.76 ($2.64) $2.14 ($1.68) ($0.52) ($0.98) ($0.36) ($5.53)

East Basin ($0.03) $3.20 $0.13 $1.45 ($9.89) $9.28 ($8.98) $2.00 ($2.97) $2.08 ($3.75)

Eastern Area $3.72 $11.29 $10.60 $24.87 ($46.21) $80.71 ($47.46) $6.96 ($13.70) $10.61 $41.39

Eastern Great Basin $2.77 ($2.23) ($5.50) $7.08 ($3.61) ($2.78) ($5.07) $0.80 $0.93 $0.03 ($7.58)

Northern Rockies ($14.71) $17.40 ($9.61) $12.86 ($16.56) $7.01 ($23.75) $3.94 ($8.84) $4.79 ($27.47)

Northwest $0.11 $13.62 $2.68 $15.24 ($10.22) ($4.81) ($5.05) ($5.21) $3.79 $7.98 $18.13

Rocky Mountain ($36.57) $50.74 $13.24 ($4.32) ($11.20) $3.35 ($44.36) $11.67 ($12.32) $2.77 ($26.98)

Southern Area ($20.83) $84.73 $20.22 ($37.70) ($38.17) $11.70 ($40.56) $27.84 ($5.28) $15.18 $17.13

Southwest $20.93 ($16.17) ($1.79) ($11.00) $5.39 $0.90 ($17.00) $8.02 ($5.02) $1.71 ($14.02)

Western Great Basin $3.62 ($4.37) $1.42 ($1.08) ($3.68) ($0.45) ($2.39) $2.05 $0.09 ($0.34) ($5.14)

Total ($36.76) $154.80 $25.11 $11.77 ($139.56) $104.31 ($198.58) $58.54 ($44.45) $44.80 ($20.03)

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 12.5 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 28, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)

California North Ops (0.006) 0.012 (0.007) (0.003) (0.015) (0.026) 0.014 (0.011) (0.060) 0.025 (0.077)

California South Ops (0.007) 0.019 0.020 (0.020) (0.007) (0.016) (0.006) 0.011 (0.008) 0.007 (0.007)

East Basin (0.003) 0.059 (0.043) (0.062) 0.055 (0.055) 0.011 (0.035) 0.031 0.030 (0.012)

Eastern Area 0.023 0.204 (0.274) (0.290) 0.284 (0.251) (0.097) (0.478) 0.463 0.303 (0.113)

Eastern Great Basin (0.052) 0.067 (0.001) 0.013 (0.012) (0.050) 0.044 (0.041) 0.062 (0.048) (0.018)

Northern Rockies (0.016) (0.071) 0.272 (0.131) (0.106) (0.066) 0.152 (0.310) (0.160) 0.217 (0.221)

Northwest (0.011) (0.029) 0.091 (0.026) 0.002 0.031 0.096 0.082 (0.035) 0.170 0.372

Rocky Mountain (0.091) 0.254 (0.229) (0.006) (0.235) 0.071 (0.114) (0.163) 0.018 0.130 (0.364)

Southern Area 0.053 1.030 (0.572) (0.492) 0.284 (0.974) 0.296 (0.461) 0.098 0.628 (0.110)

Southwest (0.057) 0.175 (0.074) (0.035) (0.203) 0.020 0.005 0.046 0.059 (0.005) (0.070)

Western Great Basin (0.032) 0.049 (0.039) 0.016 0.016 (0.027) 0.021 0.008 (0.017) 0.098 0.092

Total (0.199) 1.769 (0.858) (1.037) 0.064 (1.342) 0.422 (1.353) 0.451 1.554 (0.528)

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Table 12.5 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalIGSM-CAM WIND = 28, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows storage (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)California North Ops ($0.76) $1.53 ($0.88) ($0.32) ($1.38) ($2.12) $0.77 ($0.69) ($2.64) $1.00 ($5.49)

California South Ops ($0.90) $2.46 $2.18 ($2.15) ($0.58) ($1.43) ($0.48) $0.50 ($0.30) $0.33 ($0.38)

East Basin ($0.45) $7.61 ($5.14) ($6.41) $5.30 ($4.34) $0.78 ($1.64) $1.54 $1.07 ($1.68)

Eastern Area $3.00 $26.08 ($32.62) ($30.04) $27.47 ($19.78) ($5.96) ($24.20) $21.05 $9.97 ($25.02)

Eastern Great Basin ($6.78) $8.63 ($0.26) $1.14 ($0.98) ($4.36) $2.69 ($2.22) $2.81 ($1.83) ($1.16)

Northern Rockies ($2.12) ($9.33) $31.89 ($14.99) ($7.45) ($5.12) $9.99 ($16.21) ($6.25) $7.65 ($11.96)

Northwest ($1.38) ($3.82) $10.76 ($3.34) $0.72 $1.51 $6.33 $5.25 ($1.26) $6.55 $21.31

Rocky Mountain ($11.80) $32.52 ($28.14) ($0.87) ($19.93) $6.06 ($7.74) ($8.24) $1.25 $4.15 ($32.75)

Southern Area $6.92 $131.37 ($67.16) ($52.08) $29.23 ($75.43) $21.97 ($22.72) $5.53 $22.50 $0.13

Southwest ($7.45) $22.52 ($9.29) ($3.48) ($18.07) $2.44 $1.08 $2.60 $2.65 $0.01 ($6.99)

Western Great Basin ($4.11) $6.33 ($4.75) $1.52 $1.63 ($2.56) $1.29 $0.40 ($0.53) $3.79 $3.02

Total ($25.82) $225.89 ($103.40) ($111.01) $15.94 ($105.13) $30.72 ($67.17) $23.85 $55.18 ($60.96)

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 12.6 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under CCSMRegion 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

CCSM, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)California North Ops 0.000 (0.001) (0.002) (0.007) (0.010) (0.013) (0.015) (0.012) (0.013) (0.029) (0.101)

California South Ops 0.001 (0.001) (0.002) (0.004) (0.007) (0.009) (0.009) (0.014) (0.012) (0.013) (0.070)

East Basin 0.000 (0.001) (0.002) (0.006) (0.002) (0.002) 0.008 0.012 (0.003) 0.003 0.006

Eastern Area 0.001 (0.006) (0.019) (0.045) (0.050) (0.030) (0.021) (0.019) (0.075) 0.024 (0.240)

Eastern Great Basin (0.002) (0.000) (0.003) (0.008) (0.012) (0.008) (0.003) 0.014 (0.029) 0.011 (0.041)

Northern Rockies 0.003 0.045 (0.003) 0.031 (0.027) 0.047 (0.157) 0.025 0.012 (0.016) (0.039)

Northwest 0.000 (0.013) 0.031 (0.001) (0.005) (0.009) 0.076 0.006 0.093 (0.022) 0.156

Rocky Mountain 0.002 (0.003) (0.009) (0.021) (0.048) 0.001 (0.060) (0.055) (0.055) (0.022) (0.270)

Southern Area 0.015 0.017 0.016 0.013 0.100 0.113 0.202 0.166 0.195 0.209 1.046

Southwest 0.019 (0.016) (0.007) (0.018) (0.023) (0.029) (0.011) (0.021) (0.022) (0.056) (0.183)

Western Great Basin (0.000) (0.002) (0.001) (0.007) (0.010) (0.007) (0.013) (0.008) (0.005) (0.027) (0.080)

Total 0.040 0.019 (0.000) (0.073) (0.093) 0.053 (0.002) 0.095 0.085 0.061 0.184

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Table 12.6 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under CCSM

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalCCSM, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage flows (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)California North Ops $0.00 ($0.10) ($0.22) ($0.71) ($0.90) ($1.05) ($1.01) ($0.63) ($0.62) ($1.03) ($6.27)

California South Ops ($0.01) ($0.18) ($0.22) ($0.45) ($0.63) ($0.68) ($0.59) ($0.73) ($0.60) ($0.49) ($4.58)

East Basin $0.02 ($0.09) ($0.27) ($0.64) ($0.20) ($0.20) $0.51 $0.63 ($0.13) $0.08 ($0.28)

Eastern Area $0.02 ($0.83) ($2.26) ($4.76) ($4.66) ($2.47) ($1.35) ($1.06) ($3.37) $0.78 ($19.96)

Eastern Great Basin ($0.15) ($0.05) ($0.40) ($0.87) ($1.11) ($0.62) ($0.22) $0.76 ($1.25) $0.41 ($3.50)

Northern Rockies $0.02 $5.79 ($0.32) $3.55 ($2.55) $3.47 ($10.26) $1.28 $0.60 ($0.62) $0.95

Northwest ($0.01) ($1.73) $3.65 ($0.14) ($0.42) ($0.60) $4.99 $0.34 $4.24 ($0.86) $9.46

Rocky Mountain ($0.11) ($0.36) ($1.12) ($2.31) ($4.51) ($0.03) ($3.99) ($2.92) ($2.57) ($1.04) ($18.96)

Southern Area ($1.24) $2.18 $2.08 $1.30 $9.26 $8.55 $13.27 $9.08 $8.65 $7.70 $60.83

Southwest ($0.12) ($2.02) ($0.81) ($1.90) ($2.20) ($2.16) ($0.72) ($1.30) ($1.00) ($1.98) ($14.21)

Western Great Basin ($0.01) ($0.24) ($0.14) ($0.73) ($0.94) ($0.60) ($0.81) ($0.42) ($0.27) ($1.03) ($5.18)

Total ($1.59) $2.37 ($0.02) ($7.66) ($8.87) $3.60 ($0.18) $5.03 $3.68 $1.92 ($1.72)

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 12.7 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under MIROCRegion 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

MIROC, change in billions of metric tons of terrestrial ecosystem carbon flows sequestered with POL3.7 implementation (no discounting)California North Ops (0.001) (0.000) (0.002) (0.006) (0.009) (0.008) (0.018) (0.009) (0.010) (0.025) (0.087)

California South Ops (0.000) (0.001) 0.001 (0.011) (0.002) (0.003) 0.003 (0.016) (0.001) (0.003) (0.033)

East Basin 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.005 0.033 0.014 0.003 0.009 0.072

Eastern Area 0.003 (0.001) (0.019) (0.006) 0.036 0.072 0.126 0.092 (0.004) 0.065 0.364

Eastern Great Basin (0.001) 0.003 0.001 0.031 0.007 (0.033) (0.026) (0.043) (0.069) (0.033) (0.163)

Northern Rockies 0.005 0.001 0.022 (0.038) 0.007 0.013 (0.131) 0.041 (0.055) (0.045) (0.180)

Northwest 0.009 0.031 (0.008) 0.006 (0.025) 0.048 (0.101) (0.008) (0.016) (0.028) (0.093)

Rocky Mountain 0.003 0.024 0.011 (0.031) (0.008) 0.062 (0.014) (0.037) (0.017) (0.033) (0.038)

Southern Area 0.024 0.031 0.039 0.061 0.204 0.234 0.262 0.329 0.249 0.171 1.604

Southwest 0.003 0.002 0.019 (0.013) 0.025 (0.001) 0.033 (0.032) 0.028 (0.035) 0.029

Western Great Basin (0.000) (0.000) 0.001 (0.003) (0.002) (0.010) 0.011 (0.028) (0.004) (0.031) (0.065)

Total 0.044 0.090 0.068 (0.009) 0.239 0.379 0.179 0.303 0.104 0.012 1.409

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Table 12.7 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage flows under MIROC

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 TotalMIROC, value in POL3.7 change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage flows (POL3.7 – REF), use of the average SCC discounted at 3% (values in billions US$ 2005)California North Ops ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.25) ($0.61) ($0.87) ($0.60) ($1.17) ($0.47) ($0.49) ($0.87) ($5.40)

California South Ops $0.03 ($0.09) $0.13 ($1.24) ($0.19) ($0.26) $0.21 ($0.81) ($0.14) ($0.16) ($2.53)

East Basin $0.02 $0.00 $0.21 $0.14 $0.52 $0.36 $2.20 $0.77 $0.17 $0.31 $4.69

Eastern Area ($0.00) ($0.19) ($2.21) ($0.66) $3.25 $5.60 $8.21 $5.06 ($0.03) $2.37 $21.39

Eastern Great Basin ($0.24) $0.43 $0.16 $3.24 $0.46 ($2.53) ($1.59) ($2.48) ($3.06) ($1.22) ($6.82)

Northern Rockies $0.20 $0.14 $2.59 ($4.59) $0.65 $0.89 ($8.34) $2.16 ($2.35) ($1.80) ($10.45)

Northwest ($0.02) $3.97 ($0.81) $0.38 ($2.37) $3.65 ($6.58) ($0.47) ($0.76) ($1.13) ($4.15)

Rocky Mountain $0.30 $3.17 $1.32 ($3.34) ($0.73) $5.09 ($0.96) ($1.86) ($0.59) ($1.40) $1.00

Southern Area $0.11 $3.99 $4.81 $6.45 $19.00 $17.93 $17.25 $18.27 $11.01 $6.26 $105.08

Southwest ($0.01) $0.21 $2.27 ($1.32) $2.29 $0.02 $2.18 ($1.68) $1.30 ($1.38) $3.89

Western Great Basin ($0.07) ($0.01) $0.11 ($0.33) ($0.19) ($0.80) $0.72 ($1.57) ($0.29) ($1.18) ($3.61)

Total $0.28 $11.61 $8.33 ($1.89) $21.82 $29.35 $12.12 $16.91 $4.77 ($0.22) $103.09

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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