Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
Transcript of Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
1/34
>?7?
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
2/34
7
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
3/34
JLE \GE
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
4/34
8
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
5/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
6/34
6
Jle \ge;
Qcf @gqfpg| qd qcf Bvqv~f
^dnf~q H% Md~`ge
Mgile` g~q lx jlif `lrle` nl~qc% L hgeq cdja lq%
Qcf~f lx edqcle` mvhc qd qgji gndvq% Nfhgvxf
lqx pf~xdegj gea `fevlef* pfdpjf xff lq
gea bffj lq affpj|% #7,
-- Jle \ge #>??2,
Le xqva|le` qcf fjdwvfeq pgpf~d~ix db Jle
\ge* lq xdde nfhdmfx gppg~feq qcgq edq gjj
g~qlxqx ied cgq xcf iedx d~ veaf~xqgea
cgq xcf veaf~xqgeax% N| qclx L mfge qcgq qcf
qgxi db iedle` lx edq mf~fj| g q~gexmlxxlde db
lebd~mgqlde b~dm def pdleq qd gedqcf~ flqcf~
le qf~mx db d~a d~ lmg`f% ^gqcf~ qcf d~ix db
Q~ffSvge pgpf~* lei*
egljx gea ~fxle
3>s16s7>>?7?#pg`f 8,
Jfgrfx G~f @defSvge pgpf~
02s20s2>??
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
7/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
8/34
0
Jle \ge hdehf~e cgq qcf Gmf~lhge pdfq Pljjlgm
Hg~jdx Pljjlgmx dehf hgjjfa ge fmndalmfeq db
iedjfa`f% Qd pdxxfxx iedjfa`f ~fwvl~fx g
xfexf db aljl`fehf* bdhvx* gea hdehfeq~gqlde qcgq
fshffax qcf jlmlqgqldex db frf~|ag| lebd~mgqlde%
Pcf~fgx lebd~mgqlde xhgex qcf cvmge n~glede g ~dvqlef ngxlx `lrle` vx q~lrlgj agqg* pvf~ljf
edexfexf* ~f`v~`lqgqfa bd~mx db p~dpg`geag*
gea xfavhqlrfj| p~d`~gmmfa garf~qlxle`* qcf
pcfedmfede db iedjfa`f `dfx mvhc affpf~%
Qd ghwvl~f iedjfa`f lx g p~dhfxx qcgq gamlqxg bd~m db cfl`cqfefa xfexd~| hd`elqlde% Lq lx
g p~dhfxx ~fhflrfa edq qc~dv`c qcf xfpg~gqlde
db mlea b~dm nda|* nvq qc~dv`c qcf velblfa
xq~vhqv~f db mlea gea nda|% Qclx ilea db xfexd~|
ggifele` lb p~fhlxfj| jdhgqfa lqcle qcf p~dhfxx
db g~q ndqc gx xdmfqcle` pc|xlhgjj| h~fgqfa*gea xdmfqcle` gfxqcfqlhgjj| ~fhflrfa% Def
ml`cq g~`vf qcgq cljf lebd~mgqlde ~fp~fxfeqx
g ed~mgqlrf xqgqf db ~fhfpqlde cf~f mlea gea
^fmgile`Svge pgpf~* lei*
egljx gea gs0>s03s70
>??3
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
9/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
10/34
s10s3>??3
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
11/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
12/34
77
hvjqv~gj gea mgqf~lgj bgn~lh db dv~ hdeqfmpd~g~|
d~ja* gea* gq qcf xgmf qlmf* qd ~fxqd~f hvjqv~f
gea pfghf lqcle hdebjlhqx% Afxplqf qcf bffjle`
qdg~ax qcle`x jdxq* xq~v``jle`* d~ nfle`
afxq~d|fa* qcf~f lx gjxd nfgvq|* xq~fe`qc*
cdpf* gea pf~xlxqfehf le qcfxf xhvjpqfa pgpf~
pgleqle`x% #>,
Qcf q~gexmlxxlde db g~q gx g bd~m iedjfa`f
lx xdmfqcle` ~g~f qdag|* `lrfe lqx hdmpfqlqlde
lqc qcf gnveagehf db xpfhqghjfx gea pdpvjg~
feqf~qglemfeq% Pcf~fgx Jle \gex pgpf~d~ixad edq mdrf* xpfhqghjfx p~dkfhq g hdexqgeq
bjlhif~le`* g pf~feelgj xq~dnf qcgq iffpx vx le g
xvnjlmgqfa hdealqlde db pgelh gea dbb-ngjgehf%
Gx L fe`g`f rlxvgjj| lqc Jle \gex @gqfg|x
#p%>0, gea _gqcg|x #>??0,#p%>6,* hgxq b~dm
mfqgj gea n~lhi* vxle` q~galqldegj svge pgpf~gea lei* L gm gg~f db qcfl~ qghqljf xfexgqlde
qghqljf le qcf xfexf qcgq qcfxf d~ix g~f
pdxxfxxfa n| g ilea db pc|xlhgj p~fxfehf #gx fjj
Mdevmfeq (3Svge pgpf~*lei
7?8s6?s3>??3
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
13/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
14/34
78
gx g pg~gadslhgj gnxfehf,% Qcf| cdja m| bdhvx
gea qcf~fbd~f xvxqgle g bffjle` db ngjgehf gea
fwvljln~lvm lqcle m| n~fgqc db hdexhldvxefxx%
Qd q~gexmlq g bd~m db ngjgehf le g d~i db g~q lx
g mg~rfjdvx gea ~g~f ghclfrfmfeq% Le qcf md~f
~fhfeq Mdevmfeqx #>??3,* L ~fhflrf g xlmljg~gbbfhq% Pcljf qclx ~fhfeq xf~lfx xv``fxqx ge
fhdjd`lhgj leqfeqlde le ~fbf~~le` qd qcf `~f| hlq|
bljjfa lqc gl~ pdjjvqlde* qclx adfx edq afqf~ b~dm
qcf lelqlgj xq~vhqv~f% Fmnfaafa lqcle cf~ kd| db
hgxqle` afqgljx b~dm g~hclqfhqv~gj xlqfx xcf cgx
iede cljf `~dle`-vp d~ le cf~ |dve` gavjq|fg~x gx xcf feqf~fa leqd qcf d~ja gx g mgqv~f
g~qlxq* def mg| rlxvgjj| gnxd~n qcf bffjle` db
ag~i lei gea nljjdle` fhxqgx| db afjlhgqfj| qd~e
xcfgrfx db svge pgpf~%
Qcf hdeq~gxq nfqffe Mdevmfeq (3 #p%77, geaMdevmfeq (< #p%78, lx g hv~ldvx def% Fghc db
qcfxf ~fhfeq d~ix #>??3, fmpcgxl{fx qcf pgpf~
hgxqle` db n~lhix le cf~ nghi|g~a le Nflkle`%
Mdevmfeq (1s60s3
>??3
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
15/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
16/34
76
Pcf~fgx Mdevmfeq (3 bdhvxfx p~lmg~lj| de
qcf clqfefxx db qcf svge pgpf~* qcf mgkfxqlh
njghiefxx db Mdevmfeq (< ~frfgjx g rf~qlhgj
xfpg~gqlde nfqffe qcf qdp xfhqlde db hgxq
n~lhix le ~fjgqlde qd qcf jddxf bdjax db pgpf~x
veaf~efgqc% Qcf feql~f d~i lx hdrf~fa lqclei% Qcvx* Mdevmfeq (< dbbf~x g albbf~feq mdda
edq dej| avf qd qcf gjj-drf~ njghiefxx le hdeq~gxq
qd qcf p~fadmlegeq clqfefxx db Mdevmfeq
(3* nvq gjxd le lqx fsq~fmf rf~qlhgj bd~mgq% Le
cf~ lmpd~qgeq leqf~rlf lqc Jlv Jlnle #>??2,*
Jle \ge fsp~fxxfx cf~ mdqlrgqlde lx cf~ vxf dbnjghi lei; Gjqcdv`c m| d~ix g~f njghi gea
njgei* L efrf~ bffj qcgq qcf| g~f dej| def hdjd~%
Qcf~f lx g xvbblhlfeq rdhgnvjg~| lqc njghix
gea Hclefxf svge pgpf~% #8,Fjxfcf~f* le qcf
leqf~rlf* xcf xg|x; Qcf ~lhcefxx db njghix lx
jlif lei le Hclefxf pgleqle`% Njghi lx g hdmpjfs
gea xfexlqlrf hdjd~% Lqx rf~| pdf~bvj cfe
|dv cgeajf lq fjj% #1, B~dm qcf pf~xpfhqlrf db
Gnxq~ghq Fsp~fxxldelxm* qclx ~fhgjjx qcf pgleqf~
^gleSvge pgpf~* lei
gea gs63s8>s8
>??3
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
17/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
18/34
70
^dnf~q Mdqcf~fjjx vxf db njghi* fxpfhlgjj| le
clx xf~lfx db Fjf`lfx qd qcf Xpgelxc ^fpvnjlh%
Pcljf Mdqcf~fjj fmpcgxl{fa qcf q~g`lh gea
xdmnf~ hdeedqgqldex db njghi* Jle \gex
pf~xpfhqlrf lx mvhc albbf~feq% @fef~gjj|* b~dm g
Hclefxf pf~xpfhqlrf* def ~fgax njghi gx cgrle`jfxx qd ad lqc q~g`fa| qcge bf~qljlq|* qcf pjghf
cf~f qcle`x `~d dvq db qcf ag~iefxx* clhc lx
ge fxxfeqlgj Qgdlxq qfghcle`%
De xfrf~gj dhhgxldex* Jle \ge cgx xpdife db
cf~ ~fjgqldexclp qd g~hclqfhqv~f gx g x|mndjlhpjghf hjdxfj| gjl`efa lqc mfmd~|% Qcf
afmdjlqlde db qcf dja g~hclqfhqv~f cv~qx mf
L cgrf pgleqfa fghc db qcf pjghfx cf~f L cgrf
jlrfa% G~hclqfhqv~gj fjfmfeqx g~f lmpd~qgeq qd
mf% Qcf| ~fjgqfa qd m| cdmf* m| hvjqv~f gea
fsp~fxx m| fspf~lfehfx le albbf~feq pf~ldax% #6,Qcvx* Jle \ge ljj hgxq mfqgj bjdd~x gea gjjx
db n~lhix edq xlmpj| gx afhd~gqlrf d~ qfsqv~gj
pgqqf~ex le qcf bd~mgj xfexf* nvq gx xl`elblf~x db
N~fgi PgjjxSvge pgpf~* lei
gea _jfsl`jgx82s2?s1
>??
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
19/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
20/34
73s8? fghc>???7?
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
21/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
22/34
>7
Mdevmfeq (1Lei* svge pgpf~
23s66s6>??0
cf~ pgxq gea db Hclegx pgxq gx fjj% Le gaalqlde*
qcf g~qlxq bv~qcf~ xpfgix db qcf hdeq~gxqle`
fjfmfeqx db mfqgj gx cgrle` ge leavxq~lgj
xl`elblhgehf gea pgpf~ gx g md~f afjlhgqf
hvjqv~gj hdmpdefeq al~fhqj| gxxdhlgqfa lqc
Fgxqf~e gfxqcfqlhx* ~lqle`* gea pcljdxdpc|%
Cgrle` hdmf b~dm ge lmpd~qgeq g~qlxqlh bgmlj|
gxxdhlgqfa lqc qcf Hfeq~gj Ghgafm| db Blef
G~qx le Nflkle` #cf~f xcf* le bghq* gx favhgqfa
gea jgqf~ qgv`cq,* gea cgrle` nffe ~glxfa lqc
ge ghvqf rlxvgj gea gfxqcfqlh xfexlnljlq|* qcfg~hclqfhqv~gj q~ghfx db Hclefxf hvjqv~f g~f
lmpd~qgeq qd cf~% Xcf pg|x gqqfeqlde qd qcf
afqgljx le g~hclqfhqv~f gea lx `~gqlblfa qcgq cf~
d~i hgpqv~fx xdmfqcle` db cf~ leqlmgqf pgxq*
edq dej| le Hcleg nvq le N~ddij|e gx fjj* cf~f
xcf mgleqglefa g xqvald bd~ mge| |fg~x% Le Jle\gex hgxf* qcf xqvald lx g pjghf db lexpl~gqlde
gea afjl`cq; qcf~fbd~f* cgq xcf xffx de g
~f`vjg~ ngxlx le qcf p~dhfxx db afrfjdple` gea
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
23/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
24/34
>8
_gvxfSvge pgpf~
21>??0
ferlxldele` cf~ d~i nfhdmfx fxxfeqlgj qd cf~
iedjfa`f gx ge g~qlxq% Le qcf Qgd Qf Hcle`*
mvhc fmpcgxlx lx `lrfe qd qcf afqgljx db cgq
def xffx le egqv~f* gea egqv~f le hdeq~gxq qd
Pfxqf~e pcljdxdpc| lx jfxx le dppdxlqlde qd
hvjqv~f gea ge fsqfexlde db lq%
Pcgq def xfexfx gea cgq def iedx g~f edq
fwvlrdhgj9 qcf| g~f fxxfeqlgjj| qcf xgmf% Le
qclx ~f`g~ax* qcf ilea db cfl`cqfefa xfexd~|
hd`elqlde bfjq n| qcf g~qlxq le qcf leqlmgh| db cf~
xqvald lx g p~ffmlefeq gxpfhq db cf~ d~i%
Def ml`cq hdexlaf~ qcgq Jle \gex d~i gx
ge g~qlxq fehdmpgxxfx qc~ff efhfxxg~| gea
lmpd~qgeq hdmpdefeqx; mfmd~|* qlmf* gea
clxqd~|% Qcf pcljdxdpcf~x Jgd-q{v gea Hcvge`-
q{v* cdxf qfghcle`x f~f fxqgnjlxcfa lexdvqcf~e Hcleg nfqffe qcf xlsqc gea bdv~qc
hfeqv~| N%H #2,* bdhvxfa de qcf pgqc d~ qcf
g|% Qcf~fbd~f* cfe f lehv~ mfmd~|*
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
25/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
26/34
>6
#J, _gqcg|
Lei* Svge pgpf~82s>3>??0
#^, @gqfg|71s73 fghc
Lei* Svge pgpf~>??0
qlmf* gea clxqd~|* f hdexlaf~ qcf g| le
~fjgqlde qcfxf hdmpdefeqx% Fghc hdmpdefeq lx
afpfeafeq de qcf dqcf~ qd% Bd~ clxqd~| qd fslxq*
qlmf gea mfmd~| mvxq fslxq% Bd~ mfmd~| qd
fslxq* qlmf gea clxqd~| mvxq fslxq* gea xd de%
Nvq gx qcf Qgd qf Hcle` mgifx hjfg~;
Qcgq clhc lx hgjjfa Qgd
lx lealxqlehq gea lefbbgnjf
Lefbbgnjf gea lealxqlehq*
|fq qcf~fle g~f dnkfhqx*
Affp-xfgqfa gea vexffe*qcf~fle g~f fxxfehfx*
Qcf fxxfehf lx wvlqf ~fgj*
qcf~fle lx qcf rlrla Q~vqc #0,
Lq lx gjg|x p~dnjfmgqlh qd pvq xvhc lafgx lqcle
ge dvqxlaf hdeqfsq gea xqljj gjjd qcfm qd~fxdegqf lqc qcfl~ de xpfhlgj mfgele`* g qgxi
dehf `lrfe qd hfeqv~lfx db Hclefxf xhcdjg~x cd
hdeqfmpjgqfa qcf gppjlhgqlde db qcf g| le
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
27/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
28/34
>0
N~l`cqf~ HjdvaxSvge pgpf~* lei
12s13s6>??3
~fjgqlde qd frf~|ag| ~fgjlq|% Frfe xd* jge`vg`f
lx gjj qcgq f cgrf gx g xq~vhqv~gj mfgex db
q~gexmlxxlde% Lq dvja xffm gpp~dp~lgqf qcgq g
hjfg~ veaf~xqgeale` db lei gea pgpf~ le Hcleg*
drf~ hfeqv~lfx db qlmf* lx edq gq gjj fsfmpq b~dm
qcf g| gx g bd~m db gnxfehf le g~q% Plqc gjjqcf xq~gqf`lfx db jge`vg`f `lrfe qd qfeqlfqc
hfeqv~| Pfxqf~e pcljdxdpc|* pg~qlhvjg~j| le
~fhfeq pdxqxq~vhqv~gjlxm* lq dvja gppfg~ qcgq
qcf alxqgehf nfqffe jge`vg`f gea fsp~fxxlde
gx g bveagmfeqgj gqq~lnvqf db g~q cgx nfhdmf qdd
alxqgeq% \fq cfe L ferlxlde qcf ~fhfeq @gqfg|xgea Mdevmfeqx db Jle \ge* L gm qfmpqfa qd
~fjlewvlxc qcf fshfxxlrf nv~afe db qcfd~| le
bgrd~ db g md~f hjfg~ gea ~fxdegeq lafg; qcgq
mg|nf qcf bvqv~f lx edq xd bg~ gg|% Mg|nf* le
bghq* qcf bvqv~f lx lqcle dv~ `~gxp* lqcle qcf
xljfeq leqf~jvafx `lrfe qd mfmd~|* qlmf* geaclxqd~|%
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
29/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
30/34
>??3
#^, Pg| Dvq 8Svge pgpf~* lei
>3s>6s3>??3
TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
EDQFX
7 Jlv Jlnle* Leqf~rlf lqc Jle \ge #>??2,
> Qfjfhdmmvelhgqlde b~dm Jle \ge qd qcf gvqcd~ #Mg| 78* >??3,
8 Jlv Jlnle* dp% hlq%
1 Lnla%
6 Lnla%
2 Hcge` Hcve`-|vge* H~fgqlrlq| gea Qgdlxm #E\; Cg~pf~* 70
0 Qgd Qf Hcle` #Hc% SSL, hlqfa le Hcge`* dp% hlq%* p% 7?
TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
^dnf~q H% Md~`ge lx ge leqf~egqldegj h~lqlh* g~qlxq* hv~gqd~* gea jfhqv~f~
cd jlrfx gea d~ix p~lmg~lj| le Ef \d~i Hlq|% Gx g Hdeq~lnvqle` Falqd~
qd Xhvjpqv~f Mg`g{lef* _~dbfxxd~ Md~`ge lx bdhvxfa de qcf p~dnjfmx
db qcf g~qlxq le ge f~g db `jdngj q~gexlqlde% Le 7
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
31/34
Q~ff (8Svge pgpf~* lei* gs
03s03>?7?
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
32/34
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
33/34
jle |ge* >?7?
A~fxafe Xqgqf Mvxfvm* @f~mge|- Qcf Q~gexbd~mle` Mg~ix db Lei A~fxafe Xqgqf Mvxfvm* @f~mge|>??0 >??3 Q~grfjle` Fsclnlqlde - Qdvhcfa n|
Pdmfex Cgeax #hgqgjd`, Bjvxcle` Hdvehlj db Hvjqv~f gea G~qx*
Xmlqcxdelge Lexqlqvqlde* Ef \d~iHcf~|j Mh@leelx @gjjf~|* Ef \d~i#hv~gqd~; Jle \ge,
- Wl \ve - Leqf~egqldegj q~grfjle` fsclnlqldedb Hclefxf Gnxq~ghq G~qDHQ Hdeqfmpd~g~| G~q Qf~mlegj db CfSlge`ele` G~q Mvxfvm* Xcfe [cfeNflkle` G~q Ed @gjjf~|* Nflkle`Cgeg~q Q [ @gjjf~|* G~qlxq Hdmmvef* CIHcleg Xwvg~f `gjjf~|* Ef \d~i
>??0 8~a Hcfe`Av Nlfeelgj Hcfe` Av Hdeqfmpd~g~| G~q Mvxfvm*Xlhcvge%
- Hd~~fxpdeale` " ^fxpdeale`- Hclefxfgea Gmf~lhge g~qlxqx
Egqldegj G~q Mvxfvm db Hcleg* Nflkle`>??2 Rlxlnjf $ Lerlxlnjf-Hclefxf Gnxq~ghq G~q
Def Mdde Hdeqfmpd~g~|* Nflkle`- Hv~gqd~x Hcdlhf; Hcleg G~q Hdmpjfs Mvxfvm* Avsnv~|* MG
- Q~grfjf~x Nfqffe Hvjqv~fx; Jle \ge* SvNle`* Pfeag @v* Jle \ljle* [cge` Cde`qvRlxvgj G~qx Hfeqf~ db Ef Kf~xf|* EK
7
-
8/3/2019 Lin Yan: The Gateway to the Future by Robert C. Morgan 2008
34/34
ppp%jle|ge%vx