Lifestyles and Energy Consumption in Households · Lifestyles and Energy Consumption in Households...

Lifestyles and Energy Consumption in Households

Toru MatsumotoThe University of Kitakyushu

East-west Center, Honolulu, HI, USAFeb. 4-5, 2003

CONTENTS

1. Introduction

2. Lifestyles and energy consumption

3. Modeling for energy demand of res/com sectors

4. Projection of energy consumption and CO2 emission

5. Future directions

1. Introduction

Introduction

?Further expansion of Asian mega-cities?Urbanization?Increase in per capita income

synergistic effect

Energy consumption by residential and commercial sectors will drastically increase.

Not even considering air population issues in urban areas, urban activities hold an important key for future global warming issues also.

Comparison of 4 Cities on Population, Area and Population Density

Tokyo Seoul Beijing ShanghaiPopulation (103) 12,059 10,373 12,780 13,216Area ( sq.km) 2,102 606 16,808 6,341Population density (persons/sq.km) 5,737 17,132 760 2,084Data Source: Tokyo Statistical Yearbook 2001, Statistical Yearbook Seoul 2001, Statistical Yearbook of Beijing 2001, Statistical Yearbook of Shanghai 2001.

2. Lifestyles and Energy Consumption

Trends in GRP per Capita

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

TokyoSeoulBeijingShanghai

(USD at 1995 price)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(m2/ hds.)

Beijing (Rural)

Tokyo

Shanghai (Rural)

Beijing (Urban)

Shanghai(Urban) 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Shanghai

Tokyo

Beijing (Urban) Beijing (Rural)

Seoul

(persons/hds.)

Trends in Flour Space and Size of Household

Trends in Ownership Rate ofHome Electric Appliances

0102030405060708090

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Microwave oven (/100 households)

Tokyo

Shanghai (urban)

Beijing (urban)

020406080

100120140160180

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Tokyo Beijing (urban)

Shanghai (urban)

Shanghai (rural)

Beijing (rural)

Color TV (/100 households)

020406080

100120140160180

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Air condition (/100 households)

Beijing (urban)

Shanghai (urban)

Tokyo

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Beijing (urban)

Shanghai (urban)Shanghai (rural)

Beijing (rural)

Refrigierator (/ 100 households)

Trends in Share of HouseholdUsing Town Gas and LPG

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Tokyo (town gas) Tokyo (LPG) Beijing (coke gas)Beijing (LPG) Beijing (natural gas) Shanghai (coke gas)Shanghai (LPG)

Trends of Energy Efficiency COP (Coefficient of Performance)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996

HeatingCooling

Electric energy consumption of Refrigerator stock

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996

(kW

h/?

)

(case of Tokyo)

Trends of Housing Property

Share of insulating housing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996

(%

)

Detached houseApartment

(case of Tokyo)

Energy Consumption in Residential Sector

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


(106 TOE)

per Household

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


(TOE/ y

Compositional Changes of Residential Energy Consumption

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990

2000

1990

2000

1990

2000

1990

2000

ElectricityHeatDieselHeavy oil KeroseneNatural gasLPGCoke gasTown gasCoal

Beijing ShanghaiTokyo Seoul

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


(TOE/ mil. 1995USD)

Trends in Commercial Energy Consumption per Unit of Tertiary GRP

Trends in Total Commercial Energy Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


(106

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990

2000

1990

2000

1990

2000

1990

2000

OthersElectricityHeatOther oil prod.DieselGasolineHeavy oilKeroseneNatural gasLPGCoke gasTown gasCoal

Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai

Compositional Changes of Commercial Energy Consumption

3. Modeling for Energy Demand of Residential &

Commercial Sectors


? × × ×? ? ? ?? × × ×? ? ? ?

Detached ? ?Note

?Note

?Note

Apartment ? ?Note

?Note

?Note

? × ? ?? × × ×? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? × × ×? ? ? ?? ? ? ?

Climate factor Cooling degree dayHeating degree day

Water consumption for residential use per household

Energy priceBy energy typesBy usages

Residential buildingproperty

Floor space

Insulated rate

Energy consumptionappliance

Possession rateEnergy efficiency factor

Energy consumptionBy usage types and energy typesBy energy typesBy usage types and energy types

Data Availability for Residential Sector

Note: intrusive rate of heat

Data Availability for Commercial Sector


? ? × ×? ? ? ?? ? × ×

? ? ? ?? ? × ×

GDP of tertiary industry ? ? ? ?No. of employee of tertiary sector ? ? ? ?

Office No. of computers ? × × ×Hospital No. of patients ? ? ? ?

No. of students ? ? ? ?No. of computers ? × × ×

Energy price ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?

By energy types

Climate factor Cooling degree dayHeating degree day

Floor space TotalBy building usage types

Businessactivity

Total

School

Energyconsumption

By building usage typesBy energy typesBy building usage types and energy types

Basic Concept of Analysis

Quantity of Service driving force-Residential: number of households-Commercial: floor space

-Service per driving force-Energy demand by service device-Share of service device

Service Unit

Policy Options

Energy Intensity per unit of Service

Energy demand

Input Data Forward linkage from- external module- external parameters

×

Analytical Flows for Tokyo and Other Cities in Residential Sector

Projection of energy demand by demand types

multiple regression

Data collection & composition of variable

Estimation of energy demand per basic unit by demand types

Divide into fuel types

Projection of CO2 emission

Scenario analysis for CO2 reduction

basic unit *

* Basic unit = flour space or household

Projection of energy demand by fuel types

multiple regression

Data collection & composition of variable

Estimation of energy demand per basic unit by fuel types

Projection of CO2 emission

Scenario analysis for CO2 reduction

basic unit *

* Basic unit = household

<Tokyo> <Others>

Lighting/Power

Cooking/Hot water

Cooling

LNG

Coking gas

LPG

Final Energy Primary Energy

Individual

DHSUrbanUrban

Heating

Electricity

Coal

Heat

Gas

Coal

Oil

LNG

Lighting/Power

Cooking/Hot water

CoolingElectricity

Coal

Coal

Individual Heating

RuralRural

Oil

LNG

Matching Demand Type to Energy Type (case of Beijing)

Lighting/Power

Cooking/Hot water

Cooling

LNG

Coking gas

LPG


Urban and RuralUrban and Rural

Electricity

Coal

Gas

Coal

Oil

LNG

Matching Demand Type to Energy Type (case of Shanghai)

Matching Demand Type to Energy Type (case of Seoul)

Lighting/Power

Cooking

Cooling

LNG

LPG


Individual

DHS

Heating/hot water

Electricity

Oil

Heat

Gas

Coal

Oil

LNG

Coal

Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption for heating

Energy consumptionper floor space

Number ofhousehold

Floor space per household

insulatedhousing energy price

size of household

employees’ income per household

climatepossession of device

Energy consumption for heating

Future forecasting

electricity town gas LPG kerosene

energy demand matrix

diffusion of town gas

××

Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption for Cooling


Number ofhousehold


efficiency of device

size of household


climatepossession of device

Energy consumption for cooling

Future forecasting

electricity

× ×

Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption by Hot-water Supply

Number of householdEnergy consumption per household

insulatedhousing

energy pricewater consumption

per household

Energy consumption for hot-water

Future forecasting




×

Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption for Lighting, driving, etc.


Number ofhousehold


efficiency of device

size of household


possession of device

Energy consumption for lighting, etc.

Future forecasting




××

energy price

Data Collection

Energy Consumption per Unit of Tertiary Industry GDP Total GDP

Share of Tertiary Industry GDP to Total GDP××

Total Commercial Energy Consumption

Commercial Energy Consumption by Fuel Types

Prediction of CO2 Emission

Matrix of Energy Consumption ×

Prediction

Prediction

Analytical Flow of Commercial Sector

4. Projection of Energy Consumption and

CO2 emissions

Setting up the Exogenous Variable(case of Tokyo)

? Degree: average (1975-99)? Energy price: average (1991-99)? Water consumption: Straight line approximation of

water consumption per capita (1975-99)? Number of household: estimated by National

Institute of Population, Japan? Size of household : estimated by National Institute of

Population, Japan? Employees’ income: average of increasing rate

(1989-99)

Projection of GRP per Capita

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


( USD, 1995price)

Projection of Residential Energy Consumption per Household

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


(TOE/ hds.)

Projection of Total Residential Energy Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


(106 TOEs)

Projection of Residential Energy Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1975198019851990199520002005201020152020

KeroseneLPGTown gasElectricity

(106 TOEs)Tokyo

Tokyo

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ElectricityHeatNautural gasLPGTown gasCoal

(106 TOEs)Tokyo

Beijing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

ElectricityDieselHeavy oilKeroseneLPGTown gasCoal

(106 TOEs)Tokyo

Seoul

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ElectricityNatrual GasTown gasLPGKeroseneCoal

(106 TOEs)Tokyo

Shanghai

Estimated and Actual Values of Total Residential Energy Consumption

(case of Shanghai)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

EstimatedActrual

(106 TOEs)

CO2 Emission Factor by Energy Types

0 2 4 6 8 10

General coal Town gas

Natural gasLPG

Coke-oven gasGasoline

DieselKerosene

Heavy oil

Electricity (Japan)Electricity (Korea)Electricity (China)

Heat (Korea)Heat (China)

(106 t-CO2/TOE)

Projection of Total CO2 Emission of Residential Energy Consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


0102030405060708090

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

TokyoSeoulBeijing Shanghai

(%)

Trends and Projection of Share of Tertiary GRP to Total GRP

Projection of Energy Consumption per Unit of Tertiary GRP

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


(TOE/ mil. 1995USD)

Projection of Total Commercial Energy Consumption

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


(106 TOEs)

Projection of Commercial Energy Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ElectricityTown GasLPGHeavy OilKerosene

(106 TOEs)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OthersElectricityHeatCoke gasNGLPGDisel kerosenegasolineFuel oil Coal

(106 TOEs)

Tokyo

Beijing

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OthersElectricityCokeOther OilsDisel KeroseneGasolineFuel oil Coal

(106 TOEs)

Shanghai

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OthersHeatElectricityTown GasLPGOther OilHeavy OilKeroseneDieselGasolineCoal

(106 TOEs)

Seoul

Projection of Total CO2 Emission due to Commercial Energy Consumption

0102030405060708090

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


(106 t-CO2).

5. Future Directions

Future Directions? Improvements in data and model structuresTwo directions can be considered

1. to aim at more simplified model to deal with same structure as other mega-cities

2. to aim at a complete, bottom-up model which model variables can be closely based on policy options.

? Scenario analysisScenarios can be described in the area of

1. household attributes and lifestyle factors2. architectural characteristics3. characteristics of energy devices4. carbon intensity in energy consumption

Thank you!

Concept of Scenario AnalysisBaU

Scenario generator

Reflection of scenario

energy consumption by demand types

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

(Tca

l/yea

r) lighting

hot-water

cooling

heating

Energy consumption per floor space (heating)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

(×1

03 kcal

/m2 /y

ear

actual estimated

energy consumption by demand types

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

(Tca

l/yea

r) lighting

hot-water

cooling

heating

Example of scenarios?Improvements in energy efficiency of

appliances & equipments?Improvements in Insulated performance

of buildings?Improvements in carbon intensity of

energy?etc.

Lifestyles and Energy Consumption in Households · Lifestyles and Energy Consumption in Households...

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