LIFES50+ Final Event Bilbao, 3 April 2019 Session: LCOE ... · Expected LCOE for floating offshore...
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The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Horizon2020 programme under the agreement H2020-LCE-2014-1-640741. Qualification of innovative floating substructures for 10MW wind turbines and water depths greater than 50m LIFES50+ Final Event Bilbao, 3 April 2019 Session: LCOE evaluation Topic: Concept evaluation and expected LCOE for floating wind Markus Lerch (IREC)
Transcript of LIFES50+ Final Event Bilbao, 3 April 2019 Session: LCOE ... · Expected LCOE for floating offshore...
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Horizon2020 programme under the agreement H2020-LCE-2014-1-640741.
Qualification of innovative floating substructures for 10MW wind turbines and water depths greater than 50m
LIFES50+ Final Event Bilbao, 3 April 2019
Session: LCOE evaluation
Topic: Concept evaluation and expected LCOE for floating wind
Markus Lerch (IREC)
Outline
• FOWT concept evaluation Multi-criteria assessment
Offshore sites and floating wind turbine concepts
FOWAT tool description
• Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind LCOE for pilot and commercial wind farms
Sensitivity analysis conclusion
Cost breakdown
• Expected LCA results for floating offshore wind
2 3 April 2019
FOWT concept evaluation
3 3 April 2019
Second phase:
Numerical modeling and experiments, industrialization and optimization studies
First phase:
Concept design, development and upscaling of four FOWTs
FOUR FOWT CONCEPTS
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION
TWO FOWT CONCEPTS FOR
• Large wind turbines (10MW)
• Large water depths (>50m)
• TRL 5
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE AND GUIDELINES
Outcome:
Two FOWT concepts with a TRL of 5 and recommended practice and guidelines
FOWT concept evaluation
4 3 April 2019
Second phase:
Numerical modeling and experiments, industrialization and optimization studies
First phase:
Concept design, development and upscaling of four FOWTs
FOUR FOWT CONCEPTS
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION
TWO FOWT CONCEPTS FOR
• Large wind turbines (10MW)
• Large water depths (>50m)
• TRL 5
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE AND GUIDELINES
Outcome:
Two FOWT concepts with a TRL of 5 and recommended practice and guidelines
Phase 1 concept evaluation
Multi-criteria assessment Selection of two FOWT concepts
FOWT concept evaluation
5 3 April 2019
Second phase:
Numerical modeling and experiments, industrialization and optimization studies
First phase:
Concept design, development and upscaling of four FOWTs
FOUR FOWT CONCEPTS
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION
TWO FOWT CONCEPTS FOR
• Large wind turbines (10MW)
• Large water depths (>50m)
• TRL 5
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE AND GUIDELINES
Outcome:
Two FOWT concepts with a TRL of 5 and recommended practice and guidelines
Phase 1 concept evaluation
Multi-criteria assessment Selection of two FOWT concepts
Phase 2 concept evaluation
LCOE and LCA update for optimized FOWT concepts
FOWT concept evaluation
6 3 April 2019
Second phase:
Numerical modeling and experiments, industrialization and optimization studies
First phase:
Concept design, development and upscaling of four FOWTs
FOUR FOWT CONCEPTS
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
EXPERIMENTAL AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION
TWO FOWT CONCEPTS FOR
• Large wind turbines (10MW)
• Large water depths (>50m)
• TRL 5
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE AND GUIDELINES
Outcome:
Two FOWT concepts with a TRL of 5 and recommended practice and guidelines
Phase 1 concept evaluation
Multi-criteria assessment Selection of two FOWT concepts
Phase 2 concept evaluation
LCOE and LCA update for optimized FOWT concepts
D.2.8 Public Deliverable
FOWT concept evaluation
7 3 April 2019
Multi-criteria assessment of phase 1
FOWT concept evaluation
8 3 April 2019
4 floating offshore wind turbine concepts
3 offshore sites
Floating offshore wind farm consisting of 50 turbines (500 MW)
Average performance of the concepts according to sites
Evaluation baseline phase 1
Golfe de Fos (France) Moderate
Met-ocean conditions
Gulf of Maine (USA) Medium
Met-ocean conditions
West of Barra (Scotland) Severe
Met-ocean conditions
FOWT concept evaluation
9 3 April 2019
Design dependent components: Floating substructure
Tower
Mooring and anchor system
Inter-array cables
Common components:
Wind turbine
Offshore and onshore substation
Export cable
FOWT concept evaluation
10 3 April 2019
Disclaimer for evaluation
• The evaluation has been based on the available data submitted from the concept developers.
• The costs for the common components are based on literature.
• Assumptions have been made for some components where no data was available.
• No independent numerical calculations have been performed to verify the information provided, except for basic sanity checks.
• Professionality and trust have been assumed as basis for the evaluation:
Each designer has been responsible to design at best of their ability and to provide costs and information.
• The results don’t necessarily represent the current state of development of this technology and are affected by the accuracy and uncertainty of the provided data.
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Import of Data: 1. Automatically - EXCEL file 2. Manually – Tool
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Menu
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Menu
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Location definition
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Location definition
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Wind farm definition
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Wind farm definition
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Wind farm definition
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Menu
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Menu
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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LCOE Module
FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Energy production
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Energy production
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Life cycle costs
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Life cycle costs
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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Life cycle costs
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FOWAT tool used for concept evaluation
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LCOE results section
Detailed breakdown of costs and energy losses
Outline
• FOWT concept evaluation Multi-criteria assessment
Offshore sites and floating wind turbine concepts
FOWAT tool description
• Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind LCOE for pilot and commercial wind farms
Sensitivity analysis conclusion
Cost breakdown
• Expected LCA results for floating offshore wind
30 3 April 2019
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
31 3 April 2019
LCOE values obtained at phase 1 evaluation
Considerations: • 500 MW wind farm • DTU 10MW RWT • Discount rate: 10% • Lifetime: 25 years
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
32 3 April 2019
LCOE values obtained at phase 1 evaluation
Minimum, mean and maximum LCOE values
considering all concepts
Considerations: • 500 MW wind farm • DTU 10MW RWT • Discount rate: 10% • Lifetime: 25 years
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
33 3 April 2019
Optimization performed in phase 2
The FOWT concepts have been optimized in phase 2 of the project based on the
• experimental test campaigns performed in the ocean basin and wind tunnel
• numerical modelling of optimized concepts
• industrialization studies
Concept developers have updated the data collection questionnaires of phase 1 based on the optimization
Semi-submersible steel concept
Ocean basin test campaigns Semi-submersible concrete concept
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
34 3 April 2019
Optimization performed in phase 2
The FOWT concepts have been optimized in phase 2 of the project based on the
• experimental test campaigns performed in the ocean basin and wind tunnel
• numerical modelling of optimized concepts
• industrialization studies
Concept developers have updated the data collection questionnaires of phase 1 based on the optimization
Optimization of the concepts included for example:
Semi-submersible steel concept
Ocean basin test campaigns Semi-submersible concrete concept
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
35 3 April 2019
Optimization performed in phase 2
The FOWT concepts have been optimized in phase 2 of the project based on the
• experimental test campaigns performed in the ocean basin and wind tunnel
• numerical modelling of optimized concepts
• industrialization studies
Concept developers have updated the data collection questionnaires of phase 1 based on the optimization
Optimization of the concepts included for example:
• Change of the design/weight of the tower
• Reduction of the substructure size
• Change of the ballast system
• Adjusting manufacturing cost based on optimized
manufacturing processes
• Optimization of transportation and installation procedures
Semi-submersible steel concept
Ocean basin test campaigns Semi-submersible concrete concept
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
36 3 April 2019
LCOE values obtained at phase 1 evaluation
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Minimum, mean and maximum LCOE values
considering all concepts
Considerations: • 500 MW wind farm • DTU 10MW RWT • Discount rate: 10% • Lifetime: 25 years
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120
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
37 3 April 2019
LCOE values for demonstration/pre-commercial projects
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Considerations: • 500 MW wind farm • DTU 10MW RWT • Discount rate: 10% • Lifetime: 25 years
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
38 3 April 2019
LCOE values for demonstration/pre-commercial projects
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
LCOE values considering optimization performed
during phase 2
Considerations: • 500 MW wind farm • DTU 10MW RWT • Discount rate: 10% • Lifetime: 25 years
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
39 3 April 2019
LCOE values for demonstration/pre-commercial projects
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
LCOE values considering optimization performed
during phase 2
-3.1%
-3.8%
-4.3%
Considerations: • 500 MW wind farm • DTU 10MW RWT • Discount rate: 10% • Lifetime: 25 years
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
40 3 April 2019
Breakdown of life cycle costs of first phase
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40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Life cycle costs (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Development
Manufacturing
Transport & Installation
Operation & Maintenance
Decommissioning
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
41 3 April 2019
Breakdown of life cycle costs after optimization
Development
Manufacturing
Transport & Installation
Operation & Maintenance
Decommissioning
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
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20.00
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60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Life cycle costs (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
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Breakdown of life cycle costs after optimization
Development
Manufacturing
Transport & Installation
Operation & Maintenance
Decommissioning
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
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40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Life cycle costs (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
-3.05%
-3.28%
-3.26%
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
43 3 April 2019
Breakdown of life cycle costs after optimization
Development
Manufacturing
Transport & Installation
Operation & Maintenance
Decommissioning
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Life cycle costs (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
-21.2%
-4.2%
-10.3%
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
44 3 April 2019
Breakdown of CAPEX in comparison to bottom-fixed offshore wind
Capital expenditures for a fixed-bottom offshore wind reference project considering 4.14MW wind turbines
Source: NREL,2015 Cost of Wind Energy Review
Capital expenditures for a floating offshore wind reference project considering 10MW wind turbines
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
45 3 April 2019
Sensitivity analysis
Identification of the most influencing parameters on the LCOE value Amount of parameters studied: 324
• Concept design specific parameters: 191 • Common components parameters: 127 • Energy production related parameters: 4 • Other parameters: 2
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
46 3 April 2019
Sensitivity analysis
Identification of the most influencing parameters on the LCOE value Amount of parameters studied: 324
One of the key findings: Discount rate has a large influence on the LCOE A lower rate based on decreased risks for commercial projects may have more or at least the same importance than reducing CAPEX costs
• Concept design specific parameters: 191 • Common components parameters: 127 • Energy production related parameters: 4 • Other parameters: 2
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
47 3 April 2019
LCOE for commercial floating wind farms
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
48 3 April 2019
LCOE for commercial floating wind farms
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
LCOE values considering discount rate of 7%
(before 10%)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
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120
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180
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LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
49 3 April 2019
LCOE for commercial floating wind farms
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
LCOE values considering discount rate of 7%
(before 10%)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
-18.0%
-19.6%
-19.9%
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
LCOE values (€/MWh) for different sites and all concepts
Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind
50 3 April 2019
LCOE for commercial floating wind farms
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
LCOE values considering discount rate of 7%
(before 10%)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
-18.0%
-19.6%
-19.9%
D.2.8 Public deliverable
Not included yet: Cost reduction for
common components Further reductions from
industrialization study
Outline
• FOWT concept evaluation Multi-criteria assessment
Offshore sites and floating wind turbine concepts
FOWAT tool description
• Expected LCOE for floating offshore wind LCOE for pilot and commercial wind farms
Sensitivity analysis conclusion
Cost breakdown
• Expected LCA results for floating offshore wind
51 3 April 2019
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Expected LCA for floating offshore wind
52 3 April 2019
LCA results at phase 1 evaluation
Global warming potential (G CO2 equ.)
Primary energy (TJ)
Abiotic depletion potential (M Sb equ.)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
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15000
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Expected LCA for floating offshore wind
53 3 April 2019
LCA results after optimization
Global warming potential (G CO2 equ.)
Primary energy (TJ)
Abiotic depletion potential (M Sb equ.)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
0
50
100
150
200
250
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Expected LCA for floating offshore wind
54 3 April 2019
LCA results after optimization
Global warming potential (G CO2 equ.)
Primary energy (TJ)
Abiotic depletion potential (M Sb equ.)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
-56.6%
-56.9% -68.3%
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Reduction in %
Expected LCA for floating offshore wind
55 3 April 2019
LCA results reduction after optimization
Global warming potential (G CO2 equ.)
Primary energy (TJ)
Abiotic depletion potential (M Sb equ.)
Golfe de Fos
Gulf of Maine
West of Barra
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Horizon2020 programme under the agreement H2020-LCE-2014-1-640741.
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THANK YOU!
www.lifes50plus.eu
Contact: Markus Lerch IREC - Catalonia Institute for Energy Research E-mail: [email protected] www.irec.cat
