Life-threatening conditions expected**** · 2019. 5. 30. · seas . Surf zone and adjacent Atlantic...
Transcript of Life-threatening conditions expected**** · 2019. 5. 30. · seas . Surf zone and adjacent Atlantic...
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Major Hurricane Florence ****Life-threatening conditions expected****
Decision Support Briefing # 10 As of: 530 PM Tuesday Sept 11, 2018
Prepared by: Steven Pfaff, WCM
What has changed? Hurricane Warning now in effect Storm Surge Warning now in effect Rainfall amounts have increased significantly across parts of the area Included Hurricane Threat Impact Graphics information
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Situational Overview
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coast. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Increase the pace of preparations for the potential of a land-falling major hurricane. Follow any advice given by local officials.
Damaging hurricane force winds are likely along portions of the coast as well. Strong winds could also spread well inland. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect.
The potential for life-threatening flooding impacts continues to increase, especially across a large swath of NC since the storm is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be required.
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Wind Extreme wind impacts are possible in some areas
northeast SC and southeast NC
Thursday afternoon into Friday
Storm Surge/ Inundation
Extreme storm surge impacts are likely in some areas
All coastal areas and tidally connected
creeks, rivers, bays, and waterways
Thursday into Friday
Flooding Rain Extreme Flooding Rain impacts are possible in many areas, especially
across NC
northeast SC, and especially southeast
NC Thursday into Sunday
Tornado A few tornadoes are possible southeast NC Thursday into Friday
Marine Extreme maritime and surf
conditions along with rip currents, large breakers, and very large/steep
seas
Surf zone and adjacent Atlantic
waters Through Saturday
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Potential Impacts Wind: Limited Confidence – track dependent
Surge/Inundation: Limited Confidence – track dependent
Tornado: Limited Confidence – track dependent
Marine: Confident – regardless of track
Inland Flooding: Limited Confidence – track dependent
None Elevated Moderate High Extreme
None Elevated Moderate High Extreme
None Elevated Moderate High Extreme
None Elevated Moderate High Extreme
None Elevated Moderate High Extreme
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Storm Surge Warning Area
- Surge estimated based on latest track - The water has the potential to reach the
following heights above ground level if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
Note: This low resolution image is used to show general areas as to where the Watch is in effect. Please use the NHC Storm Surge Inundation Map on their website for inundation details.
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Threat In Extreme Surge threat areas we need to prepare for the possibility of devastating impacts such as: • Inundation affecting homes near tidal
creeks and waterways farther inland than what people are accustomed to
• Surge combined with battering waves causing severe damage to many structures along the barrier islands
• A large amount of sand deposition onto barrier islands and blocked roadways
• The formation of new inlets • Wash-outs or severely flooded coastal
roads • Extreme beach erosion with significant
loss of dunes • Damage to marinas, docks, and piers • Aids to navigation may be off station or
missing, making navigation after the storm hazardous
• Delivery of drinking water and sewer services may be lost in coastal communities
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Hurricane Florence Wind Threat
In Extreme Wind threat areas we need to prepare for the possibility of devastating impacts such as: • Structural damage to builds and complete
destruction of mobile homes • Widespread tree damage and downed
power lines • Debris and power lines down on roadways
creating impassable conditions • Widespread and long duration power
outages • Major communications disruptions or
complete loss • Vessels breaking free from moorings
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Most likely TS arrival times for the southeast NC coast will be during Thu morning, and early Thu afternoon for the northeast SC coast based on the latest track
Tropical storm force winds would spread farther inland during the day Thursday afternoon and Thursday night
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Possible Rainfall Impacts
In Extreme flood threat areas we need to prepare for the possibility of devastating impacts such as: • Extreme flooding that may prompt
additional numerous evacuations, or result in numerous rescues
• Rapid rises in rivers and streams that overflow their banks in many places with deep moving water
• Flood waters entering structures, and cutting off people or communities with roads becoming flooded or damaged
• Road scours or complete road failure along with the potential for sinkholes
• Low-lying bridge closures with some weakened or washed away
• Hazardous materials or polluted in any flood waters
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Hurricane Florence Potential Rainfall Amounts
Since the track is slower and the storm will reside over the area longer predicted rainfall amounts have become extreme.
15-20+ rainfall amounts are now forecast in the axis of heaviest rain
Life-threatening flooding expected
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Hurricane Florence Tornado Threat
There is an elevated potential for tornadoes, especially from portions of southeast NC, to eastern NC and southeast VA Thursday through Friday morning.
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Latest Information: Hurricane Florence OVERVIEW:
Florence is a dangerous major hurricane and could further strengthen
The storm is expected to turn toward a NW direction and track toward the coast tonight through Friday
The storm’s forward speed is expected to slow down considerably Friday through Sunday
NHC Advisory #50: 5 PM Tuesday Sept 11, 2018
Max Winds: 140 MPH (strong Cat. 4)
Location: 785 mi. ESE of Cape Fear
Movement: West-Northwest at 17 MPH
Pressure: 945 MB (27.91 inches)
Hurricane Florence – GOES East Band 02 527 PM Tuesday Sept 11, 2018
Florence
● Cape Fear
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Official NHC Track Information and Hurricane Watch
Based on the latest track the bulk of wind and surge impacts are expected Thursday afternoon and persist through Friday.
115 MPH (Cat 3) 45 MPH (TS)
Life-threatening surge, wind, and rain impacts are likely
Florence will increase in size and have far reaching impacts, regardless of where the storm comes ashore
140 MPH (Cat 4)
A much slower track Friday and Saturday will enhance the flooding rain threat across a large area
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Key Points
Continue to prepare for a potential land-falling major hurricane.
Stay informed and listen for instructions from local officials.
Please visit the following websites for information about protective actions:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan or
https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes
Given the very slow motion of the storm as it approaches the coast and moves inland will create a long period of severe impacts.
This is a life-threatening situation from storm surge, to dangerous winds and extreme flooding
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Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 9/11/2018 5:39 PM Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook
Contact and Next Briefing Information
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive, do not use after 4 AM Wed Sept. 12, 2018
Briefing Webpage: http://weather.gov/ilm/briefing
Web: http://weather.gov/ilm
E-mail: [email protected]
Facebook: NWSWilmingtonNC
Twitter: @NWSWilmingtonNC
Next Briefing When: By 730 AM on Wed Sept. 12, 2018