Leveraging Strength on Railways Capex - Chanakya...Railway Electrification Raninagar Jalpaigudi -New...

1

Rail Vikas NigamCapital Goods | India

Institutional Equity Research

IPO Note | March 29, 2019

Issue Size (mn shares) 252.8

Issue Open/Close Mar 29/Apr 03, 2019

Face Value (Rs) 10

Price Band (Rs) 17-19

Lot Size (shares) 780

SUBSCRIBE

Leveraging Strength on Railways Capex Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (RVNL) – a Miniratna, Category – I Schedule ‘A’ CPSE – executes railway projects including new lines, doubling, gauge conversion, railway electrification, metro projects, workshops, major bridges, cable stayed bridges and buildings etc. Since inception in 2003, the Ministry of Railways has transferred 179 projects, out of which 174 projects are sanctioned for execution. Out of these, 72 projects have been fully executed totalling to Rs206bn. Its order book as of 3QFY19 stood at Rs775bn (10x of FY18 revenue) for 102 ongoing projects. Till FY18, RVNL has completed 886rkm of project length, which included 315rkm of doubling and 425rkm of railway electrification. RVNL entitled to get management fee of 9.25% for metro projects, 8.5% for other plan heads and 10% for national projects.

RVNL is coming out with an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of 252.8mn equity shares, the Price Band of which has been fixed at Rs17-19/equity share. The IPO opens on Friday, March 29, 2019 and closes on Wednesday, April 03, 2019.

Key Strengths f Strong track record in execution from conceptualisation to commissioning.

f Undertaken diverse categories of projects with an asset light model.

f Since inception, 174 out of 179 projects transferred by the MoR are sanctioned for execution, of which 72 projects worth Rs205.7bn have been completed.

f Order book of Rs775bn (10x of FY18 revenue) including 102 ongoing projects.

f Empowerment by the MoR for sanctioning project estimates and award of contracts.

f Leveraging its strength on railway investment plan.

f Focus on high value projects.

Key Risks f Due to overdependence on railway orders, any slowdown in railway capex may impact

order inflow and revenue.

f Any change in government policies or funding agencies for lines of credit.

Outlook & ValuationRVNL’s revenue and PAT clocked 34% and 19% CAGR, respectively over FY15-18, while margin expanded to 5.1% in FY18 from 4.6% in FY15. Notably, RVNL paid an average dividend of 26% during the same period. The order book as on 3QFY19 stood at Rs775bn bn (10x of FY18 revenue) for 102 ongoing projects. Assuming moderate revenue growth of 10% CAGR through FY18-21E, the Company is valued at 5.5x FY21E earnings, which appears to be justified considering its unique business model, steady growth and healthy return ratios. Hence, we recommend SUBSCRIBE to the Issue.

Key Financials (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 H1 FY19

Sales 45,399 59,151 75,974 36,229

EBITDA 2,174 2,818 3,888 1,615

EBITDA Margin (%) 4.8 4.8 5.1 4.5

Net Profit 4,293 4,434 5,699 2,536

EPS Rs) 2.1 2.1 2.7 1.2

P/E (x) 9.2 8.9 7.0 *6.2

P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 9.2 9.2 8.0

ROE (%) 12.5 12.5 14.5 *15.8

Source: Company, Rsec Research, *Annualised

Research Analyst:

Arafat SaiyedContact : (022) 3303 4635Email : [email protected]

Issue Details Rs mn

Pre-issue Paid up Capital 20,850

Post Issue Mkt Cap at Upper band 39,615

BRLM - Yes Securities, Elara Capital, IDBI Capital

Registrar - Alankit

Offer for different categories (%)

QIB 50

HNI 15

Retail 35

Shareholding Pattern (%) Pre Issue

Post Issue

Promoter 100.0 87.9

Public - 12.1

2






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Strong Track Record in Execution from Conceptualisation to Commissioning RVNL executes project on turnkey basis by undertaking the full cycle of project from concept to commissioning including stages of design, preparation of estimates, calling and award of contracts, project management etc. It has expertise in undertaking all railway infrastructure projects. RVNL has completed 33% of the doubling and ~21% of electrification projects of the Indian Railways during FY13 to FY17. RVNL diversified and executing various types of projects including construction of new railway lines in hilly regions, metro lines, workshops and institutional buildings etc. It has a veteran management and execution team, which offer a competitive advantage.

Exhibit: 1. RVNL completed 33% of the Doubling of Indian Railway Exihibit 2: 21% of Total Electrification Projects Completed by RVNL

Source: Company, RHP, RSec Research

RVNL executes railway projects including new lines, doubling, gauge conversion, railway electrification, metro projects, workshops, major bridges, cable stayed bridges and buildings etc. Since inception in 2003, the Ministry of Railways has transferred 179 projects, out of which 174 projects are sanctioned for execution. Out of these, 72 projects have been fully executed totalling to Rs206bn. Till FY18, RVNL has completed 886rkm of project length, which included 315rkm of doubling and 425rkm of railway electrification. RVNL entitled to get management fee of 9.25% for the metro projects, 8.5% for other plan heads and 10% for national projects.

705 708 705

972 881

273 241 260 242 310

38.7

34.0 36.9

24.9

35.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Indian Railway RVNL RVNL Share (%, RHS)

(KMs)

1,317 1,350 1,375 1,502

1,646

301 240 264 335 380

22.9

17.8 19.2

22.3 23.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800


Indian Railway RVNL RVNL Share (%, RHS)

(KMs)

3






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Exhibit 3: Business Model

Source: Company, RHP

Exhibit 4: Key Areas of Operation

Key Area of operation Details

New Lines

f Includes augmenting the rail network by laying new lines

f Aimed to achieve seamless multi modal transportation network

f To provide connectivity to areas not connected to the rail network

Doubling

f Provisioning of additional lines along the existing tracks

f Objective is to ease out traffic constraints

f Significant contributor in doubling projects, undertaken 1/3 of the projects in last 5 years

Gauge Conversion Includes conversion of meter gauge lines to broad gauge railway lines

Railway Electrification

f Electrification of current un-electrified rail network and electrification on the new rail network

f RVNL contributes to around 21% of the total electrification work done by the Indian Railways

f Electrification would lead to: lowered fuel bill, Reduce dependence on fossil fuel and Improved efficiency

Metropolitan Transport Project Setting up of metro lines and suburban network in Kolkata and Hyderabad

Other Services Construction of workshops, construction of bridges including rail over bridges, institutional buildings


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f New lines: The new lines include augmenting the rail network by laying new lines. The objective of laying new lines are: achieving seamless multi-modal transportation network across India and connecting remote areas.

f Doubling: Doubling involves the provision of additional lines by way of doubling the existing routes to enable the Indian Railways to ease out traffic constraints of single line or construction of 3rd/4th line to increase the charted capacity. RVNL is a significant contributor to the doubling projects and has been contributing to approximately one third of the total doubling completed.

f Gauge conversion: Gauge conversion includes conversion of meter gauge lines to broad gauge railway lines.

f Railway electrification: This includes electrification of current un-electrified rail network and electrification on the new rail network.

f Metropolitan transport projects: This includes setting up of metro lines and suburban network in metropolitan cities.

f Workshops: This includes manufacturing facilities, and workshops for repairing and manufacturing rolling stock.

Strong order bookThe order book as on 3Q FY19 stood at Rs775bn (10x of FY18 revenue) for 102 ongoing projects. New line contributes 40% of total order book followed by doubling lines at 36%. Of the order book ~Rs400bn projects have short gestation of 2-3 years and the balance have long gestation of 5-7 years.

Exhibit 5: Order Book Mix (%)


New lines40

Doubling36

Metro12

Electrification5

Workshops3

Gauge Conversion

2

Others2

5






Face Value (Rs) 10



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Exhibit 6: Key Project Under Execution

Projects Length (kms) Cost (Rs mn)

New Line

Haridaspur - Paradeep 82 18,445

Mau-Ghazipur-Tarighat 51 17,659

Obulavaripalle - Krishnapattnam 122 18,500

Doubling

Mathura-Jhansi 3rd Line 274 36,778

Vizianagaram -Samabalpur 3rd Line 265 23,357

Hospet - Tinaighat - Vasco-Da-Gama 307 21,270

Gauge Conversion

Lucknow- Pilibhit Via Sitapur, Lakhimpur 263 9,770

Ahmedabad - Botad 170 9,756

Dhasa - Jetalsar 104 6,444

Metro Projects: Construction of lines

Baranagar - Barrackpore & Dakshineswar 15 27,339

Dum Dum Airport - New Garia Via Rajerhat 32 42,595

Joka - Binoy Badal Dinesh Bagh Via Majerhat 17 29,135

Railway Electrification

Raninagar Jalpaigudi -New Bongigaon - Guwahati (Incl.) (Part of Barauni - Katihar - Guwahati Incl. Katihar – Barsoi) 382 6,556

Workshops

Vadlapudi – Wagon Poh Workshop of 200 No.s Capacity Near Duvvada Station NA 3,288

Latur – Setting of coach manufacturing factory NA 4,975

Others

Road Over Bridge – Daraganj-Rebuilding (Bridge No 111 on Ganga) NA 3,489


Investment in SPVsRVNL has invested Rs65bn as equity in various SPVs formed along with strategic partners. It has 6 SPVs, to undertake project development, mobilisation of financial resources and to implement projects pertaining to strengthening of golden quadrilateral and better connectivity to various ports.

Exhibit 7: Investment in SPVs and Subsidiary


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Face Value (Rs) 10



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Leveraging its Strength on Railway Investment Plan During FY15-19, the railway capex outlay has clocked 22% CAGR to Rs1,480bn in FY19. The ongoing investment of Indian Railways has provided ample opportunity for RVNL, as it’s an executing agency for the projects. RVNL has leveraged its expertise project execution.

Exhibit 8: Capex of Railways Exihibit 9: Medium Term Investment Plan


654

1,000

1,210 1,310

1,485

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


(Rs bn) Rs bn

Network Decongestion 1,993

Network Expansion (including electrification) 1,930

Network Projects 390

Safety 1,270

IT/Research 50

Rolling Stock 1,020

Passenger Amenities 125

High Speed Rail & Elevated Corridors 650

Station redevelopment + logistics parks 1,000

Others 132

Total 8,560

Indian Railways envisages a prospective investment of Rs8,560bn during FY16-FY20

Exhibit 9: Railways Segment Wise Capex (FY 2016-25)

Particulars Projects (Nos) Length (In Kms) Cost (Rs bn)

New Lines 154 17,105 1,734

Gauge Conversion 42 9,704 418

Doubling 166 9,272 531

Traffic Facilities 560 - 95

Signal & Telecommunication 517 - 95

Railway Electrification 36 10,004 107

Workshop 479 - 265

Total 1,954 46,085 3,245


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Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Exhibit 10: Investment in New Lines Construction Exihibit 11: Gauge Conversion


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

(Rs bn)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

(Kms)

Exhibit 12: Electrification Target rkm

Executing Agency FY19 FY20 FY21

CORE 4,310 4,295 4,300

RVNL 870 1,085 1,100

IRCON 300 300 300

RITES 120 120 120

PGCIL 200 200 200

Zonal Railways 200 200 200

Total 6,000 6,200 6,220


Investment in the ‘Diamond Quadrilateral’

The Government has announced plans for a Diamond Quadrilateral of high speed rail corridors in India.

f Connecting 4 metro cities in India, i.e., Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai.

f 6 corridors connecting the metropolitan cities.

f The Ministry of Railways had assigned the work of conducting the pre-feasibility. studies for the following sections to Rail Vikas Nigam.

Exhibit 13: Connecting Metro Cities

Route Kms

New Delhi-Mumbai 1,318 kms

Mumbai-Chennai 1,384 kms

Delhi-Kolkata 1,474 kms

Mumbai-Nagpur 781 kms

Delhi-Chennai 2,182 kms

Delhi-Chandigarh-Amritsar 458 kms


8






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Port-rail connectivity projects approved under Sagarmala Programme

f The Ministry of Railways will be taking up 21 port-rail connectivity projects, at an estimated cost of Rs200bn.

f The Indian Port Rail Corporation has already awarded 3 port connectivity projects for Vishakhapatnam and Chennai ports for quick evacuation of cargo, while the remaining are in the pipeline.

f 150+ port rail connectivity projects have been identified which will mobilise investment of >Rs4trln in 10 years.

Safety: The Government plans to invest Rs1,270bn during FY16 to FY20 in track renewal, bridge works, road over bridge (ROB), road under bridge (RUB) and Signaling & Telecommunication (S&T).

Workshops Maintenance: New types of Rolling Stock with advanced technologies, the existing Production Units, Workshops and Maintenance Depots are being expanded or being upgraded providing opportunity for RVNL.

Rail infrastructure projects from other ministries/ PSUsRVNL has gained expertise in execution of projects, on account of being executing agency for the MoR, it has propose to utilise the expertise to get orders from other ministries like strategic lines in border areas and sidings for military use, linking of new ports under, building of major bridges and surface transport, metro railways under the Ministry of Urban Development, institution buildings etc.

Focus on high value projectsRVNL is focussing to increase high value projects. Recently it has assigned the hill projects in the difficult terrains of the Himalayas for the construction of the new lines between Rishikesh-Karnprayag (Uttarakhand) and Bhanupalli – Bilaspur - Beri (Himachal Pradesh). The new line till Beri is likely to be extended up to Ladakh on strategic consideration, which may be considered for transfer to RVNL for execution.

Robust Financials & Assets Light ModelFor the project assigned by the MoR, RNVL entered into various contracts for the execution and supervision by the PMC of the project. RVNL executes projects by contribution of equity by other partners and by raising debts from financial institutions. RVNL works on an asset light model, which requires the contractor to provide all machineries, plants and stores for execution.

Exhibit 14: Revenue CAGR of 34% during FY15-18 Exihibit 15: Marign imprved to 5.1% in FY18 from 4.6% in FY15


31,465

45,399

59,151

75,974

36,229

26.1

44.3

30.3

28.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 H1 FY19

Revenues (Rs mn) Growth (%, RHS)

1,456

2,174

2,818

3,888

1,615

4.6

4.8 4.8

5.1

4.5

4

4

4

5

5

5

5

-

700

1,400

2,100

2,800

3,500

4,200


EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA margin (%, RHS)

9






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Exhibit 16: PAT CAGR of 19% during FY15-18 Exihibit 17: Return Ratio


3,368

4,293 4,434

5,699

2,536

108.3

27.5

3.3

28.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Net Profit Growth (%, RHS)

11.0

12.5 12.5

14.5 14.2

4.7

6.5

8.7 9.2

11.7

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0


ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Exhibit 18: Average Dividend Payout of 26%


313 372

2,571

1,670

969

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000


Dividend (Rs mn) Dividend Payout (%, RHS)

During FY15-18, RVNL’s revenue and PAT clocked 34% and 19% CAGR, respectively, while margin expanded to 5.1% in FY18 from 4.6% in FY15. Notably, RVNL paid an average dividend of 26% during the same period. The order book as on 3QFY19 stood at Rs775bn (10x of FY18 revenue) for 102 ongoing projects. Assuming moderate revenue growth of 10% CAGR through FY18-21E, the Company is valued at 5.5x FY21E earnings, which appears to be justified considering its unique business model, steady growth and healthy return ratios. Hence, we recommend SUBSCRIBE to the Issue.

10






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 H1 FY19

Net Sales 45,399 59,151 75,974 36,229

Growth (%) 44.3 30.3 28.4

Total Expenditure 43,225 56,333 72,086 34,614

Cost of Materials 41,906 54,698 70,240 33,511

Employee costs 967 1,170 1,340 776

Others 351 465 506 327

EBITDA 2,174 2,818 3,888 1,615

Growth (%) 49.3 29.6 38.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 4.8 4.8 5.1 4.5

Depreciation 47 50 48 27

Interest 231 355 447 206

Other Income 1,802 2,476 2,249 1,475

Share of Profit/(Loss) of JV 1,289 542 998 243

PBT 4,988 5,431 6,640 3,101

Growth (%) 32.5 8.9 22.3

Tax 695 998 941 565

Tax rate (%) 13.9 18.4 14.2 18.2

Reported PAT 4,293 4,434 5,699 2,536

Growth (%) 27.5 3.3 28.5

Net Margin (%) 9.5 7.5 7.5 7.0

Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 2.1 2.1 2.7 1.2

Growth (%) 27.5 3.3 28.5

11






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Balance Sheet


Share capital 20,850 20,850 20,850 20,850

Reserves 13,374 14,719 18,402 19,771

Net worth 34,224 35,569 39,252 40,621

Total borrowings 26,241 24,369 22,591 19,633

Minority Interest

Deferred tax 75 89 4,241 3,592

Total liabilities 60,540 60,027 66,085 63,846

Net block 60 76 2,488 2,489

Goodwill 56 127 212 274

Investments 10,239 10,885 12,322 12,565

Current assets 211,353 76,993 69,909 71,274

Inventories 148,241 7,663 19 62

Debtors 12,265 16,261 28,961 29,192

Cash 30,326 27,046 14,080 12,720

Loans and advances 7,252 11,044 9,237 7,293

Other Current Assets 13,269 14,979 17,611 22,007

Current liabilities 161,370 28,160 19,021 22,830

Provisions 246 409 580 648

Net current assets 49,736 48,423 50,308 47,796

Net Deferred Tax 450 515 755 722

Total Assets 60,540 60,027 66,085 63,846

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Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

Cash Flow Statement


Cash flow from operating activity

PBT 4,988 5,431 6,640 3,101

Add: Depreciation 47 50 48 27

Add: Interest 231 355 447 206

Less: taxes paid (695) (998) (941) (565)

Add: other adjustments (389) (734) (1,439) (564)

Less: working capital changes 13,964 (1,967) (14,850) 1,152

Total operating cash flows 18,145 2,136 (10,095) 3,356

Operating CF w/o WC changes 4,181 4,104 4,755 2,204

Cash flow from investing activity

Capital expenditure 33 27 2,460 (340)

Change in investments (1,281) (647) (1,436) (243)

Total investing cash flow (1,248) (620) 1,024 (584)

Cash flow from financing activity

Change in borrowings 1,101 (1,872) (1,777) (2,958)

DIVIDEND (372) (2,571) (1,670) (969)

Interest payment (231) (355) (447) (206)

Total financing cash flow 498 (4,798) (3,894) (4,133)

Net change in cash 17,395 (3,281) (12,965) (1,360)

Opening cash & CE 12,931 30,326 27,046 14,080

Closing cash & CE 30,326 27,046 14,080 12,720

Key Ratio

Y/E Mar FY16 FY17 FY18 H1 FY19

Valuation Ratio (x)P/E 9.2 8.9 7.0 *6.2

P/CEPS 9.1 8.8 6.9 *6.1

P/BV 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

Dividend yield (%) 0.9 6.5 4.2 *5.3

EV/Sales 1.0 0.8 0.8 *0.7

EV/EBITDA 11.6 9.2 9.2 8.0

Per Share Data (Rs)EPS 2.1 2.1 2.7 1.2

Cash EPS 2.1 2.2 2.8 1.2

DPS 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.5

Book Value 16.4 17.1 18.8 19.5

Returns (%)RoCE 6.5 8.7 9.2 *11.7

RoE 12.5 12.5 14.5 *15.8

Note : *

13






Face Value (Rs) 10



SUBSCRIBE

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