Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry · Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assuming...

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©2019 Baker Hughes, a GE company, LLC (“BHGE”). All rights reserved. Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry Tarek Souki SVP LNG Marketing and Trading TELLURIAN

Transcript of Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry · Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assuming...

Page 1: Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry · Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assuming 150,000 m3 ship. In 2017, approximately a third of all LNG cargoes are estimated to be

©2019 Baker Hughes, a GE company, LLC (“BHGE”). All rights reserved.

Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry Tarek Souki

SVP LNG Marketing and Trading

TELLURIAN

Page 2: Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry · Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assuming 150,000 m3 ship. In 2017, approximately a third of all LNG cargoes are estimated to be

Cautionary statements

The information in this presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of

Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking

statements. The words “anticipate,” “assume,” “believe,” “budget,” “estimate,” “expect,”

“forecast,” “initial,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “should,” “will,” “would,” and

similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking

statements in this presentation relate to, among other things, the terms of any offered investment in

Driftwood Holdings or related businesses (“Driftwood”) and Driftwood’s future: financial and

operational results, transactions, operations and capabilities, development timeline, capital

expenditures and requirements, regulatory approvals and environment, workforce, partners,

business and prospects.

Our forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and analyses made by us in light of our

experience and our perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future

developments, and other factors that we believe are appropriate under the circumstances. These

statements are subject to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause

actual results to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or implied

by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those described in the “Risk

Factors” section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 filed with

the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on March 15, 2018 and other filings with the

SEC, which are incorporated by reference in this presentation. Many of the forward-looking

statements in this presentation relate to events or developments anticipated to occur numerous

years in the future, which increases the likelihood that actual results will differ materially from those

indicated in such forward-looking statements. Projected future cash flows and other financial

measures as set forth herein may differ from those measures as determined in accordance with

GAAP.

The projected financial information included in this presentation is provided for illustrative purposes

only and does not purport to show estimates of actual future financial performance.

The forward-looking statements made in or in connection with this presentation speak only as of the

date hereof. Although we may from time to time voluntarily update our prior forward-looking

statements, we disclaim any commitment to do so except as required by securities laws.

This document does not constitute an offer to any person to subscribe for or otherwise acquire

securities or an undertaking by Tellurian Inc. or any of its subsidiaries to make such an offer. The

terms of any securities or offering, if any, will be set forth in definitive documents provided to

prospective investors.

Reserves and resourcesEstimates of non-proved reserves and resources are based on more limited information, and are

subject to significantly greater risk of not being produced, than are estimates of proved reserves.

Forward looking statements

2 Disclaimer

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Natural gas is a partner to renewables

Source: Lazard.

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Natural gas share in UK’s power mix grew to 42% as higher CO2 prices

incentivized dispatch of cleaner fuels; Europe considering similar policies

0 100 200

Gas CCGT

Nuclear

Coal

PV Rooftop

PV Utility scale

Wind

Levelized cost ($/MWh)

Unsubsidized levelized cost of

energy (LCOE)

Gas-fired power generation is a cleaner, more

affordable, and reliable backup to renewables

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

mtoe UK power generation by fuel

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro (natural flow) Wind

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Sources: Kpler, Maran Gas, IHS, Wood Mackenzie.

Notes: LNG storage assumes half of fleet is in ballast, 2.9 Bcf capacity per vessel. Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assuming 150,000 m3 ship. In 2017,

approximately a third of all LNG cargoes are estimated to be spot volumes. Based on line of sight supply through 2020.

Global gas market commoditizing through LNG

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Legend

LNG carrier – laden

LNG carrier – unladen

Bcf of LNG

storage

# of LNG

vessels

# of

cargoes

loaded

per day

15

18

2018 2020

517 609

821

967

2018 2020

LNG Storage - 2018

Japan + Korea terminals: 697 Bcf

LNG vessels: 821 Bcf

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54.4

73.1 18.6

2018 2025 Incremental

production

Plentiful, low-cost U.S. natural gas

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Production growth and resource base from selected U.S. unconventional basins

Source: EIA; Tellurian analysis

411

112

74

23

52

Resource

size, Tcf

Marcellus-Utica

HaynesvilleEagle Ford

Permian

Anadarko

Total selected basin shale production,

Bcf/d29.2

36.0

2018 2025

8.2 12.4

2018 2025

3.6 7.4

2018 2025

4.9 7.9

2018 2025

8.6 9.4

2018 2025

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Ill-suited existing infrastructure

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Pre-shale pipelines and import facilities did not contemplate the shale revolution

Source: EIA; Tellurian analysis

Traditionally, pipelines

have moved gas from

conventional producing

regions to consuming

markets in the Midwest,

Northeast and West Coast

Major gas

transportation flows

13

13

2008 major

pipeline corridor

approximate

capacity, Bcf/d

3

3

1

5

6

6

15

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Infrastructure first wave

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As a result, industry built new pipelines, reversed old ones and developed the first wave of LNG

export projects

Source: EIA; Wood Mackenzie, RBN, Tellurian analysis.

0.3 Bcf/d

5.8 Bcf/d

3.2 Bcf/d

0.7 Bcf/d

LNG liquefaction terminal

Export capacity

Operating

Under construction

2.6

Completed pipeline

reversals and new

construction, Bcf/d

1.7

Current LNG investment:

▪ ~$60 billion

▪ 10 Bcf/d export capacity

4.8

2.61.3

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13 Bcf/d

4

4

7

1

3

U.S. natural gas needs global market access

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13 Bcf/d of incremental production; associated gas at risk of flaring without infrastructure investment

Sources: EIA; ARI; Tellurian analysis.

Note: (1) $1,000 per tonne average.

▪ LNG export capacity required:

―At least 100 mtpa: 13 Bcf/d (19

Bcf/d less ~6 under construction)

― ~$100 billion(1)

▪ Pipeline capacity required:

―Around 19 Bcf/d

―~$70 billion

LNG liquefaction terminal

Operating/under

construction

Future

Export capacity

19Total estimated 2018-2025

production growth, Bcf/d

Required future investment:

▪ ~$170 billion

▪ Up to 13 Bcf/d export capacity

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▪ Integrated model― Production Company, Pipeline

Network, LNG Terminal

― Variable and operating costs expected to be $3.00/mmBtuFOB

▪ Financing― ~$8 billion in Partner capital

through investment of $500 per tonne of LNG

― ~$20 billion in project finance debt equates to $1.50/mmBtu with projected interest and amortization

Tellurian’s partners lift low-cost LNG

Tellurian

Marketing

Pipeline

Network

Production

Company

Equity ownership ~40%

~16 mtpa

~12 mtpa

Partners(~$8 billion in equity)

~60%

Partners

100%

LNG

Terminal

Driftwood Holdings

(~$20 billion in project finance debt)

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Tellurian differentiated to provide value

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▪ Management

track record at

Cheniere and

BG Group

▪ 43% of Tellurian

owned by

founders and

management

▪ Guaranteed

lump sum

turnkey

contract with

Bechtel

▪ $15.2 billion for

27.6 mtpa

capacity

▪ FERC delivered

final EIS on time

18 January 2019

▪ Integrated

― Upstream reserves

― Pipeline network

― LNG terminal

▪ Low-cost

▪ Flexible

World-class

partners

Fixed-cost EPC

contract

Regulatory

certainty

Experienced

management

Unique business

model

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Thank you

Page 12: Leveraging partnerships for a commoditizing industry · Average cargo size ~2.9 Bcf, assuming 150,000 m3 ship. In 2017, approximately a third of all LNG cargoes are estimated to be