Lessons Learned from Regional Solar Procurement:

Feb. 26, 2018 | Nashville, TN

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Setting the StageTurn to a neighbor and discuss:

– What is the role of solar in your co-op TODAY?

– What will the role of solar be IN 20 YEARS?

Transforming global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future.

Lessons Learned from Regional Solar Procurement:Introductory Remarks

Kevin Brehm | Feb. 26, 2018 | Nashville, TN

ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE

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Big Questions and Key Takeaways• What’s it cost?

• What’s it worth?

• How should I get it?

• Distributed solar now costs $50/MWh or less in parts of the country

• Distributed solar avoids energy, transmission, and other costs

• Demand aggregation and competitive procurement reduce prices 30% or more

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Community-Scale Solar (Distribution-Scale Solar) is Accessible to Distribution Co-ops and G&Ts

Behind-the-meter

Community-Scale Utility-Scale

Size (Capacity) <500 kW 500kW – 10 MW 10 MW+

Interconnection Behind-the-meter

Distribution Grid Transmission Grid

Energy Off-taker HomesBusinesses

Distribution utilitiesG&T utilitiesCommunity solar subscribers (homes/ businesses)

G&T utilities

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What’s it Cost?Solar is now cost-competitive with thermal generation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Solar with Storage Solar

Xcel 2017 RFP ResultsMedian Bid

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Levelized Cost of Energy 2009 – 2017*(Modeled)

* Source: Lazard (Does not include solar investment tax credit); Xcel Solicitation Report

$/MWh

359

Nuclear

Coal

CCNG

Solar

123111

83

148

60

102

50 36 29

$/MWh

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Low-Cost Solar is Available at Community-ScaleWhat’s it cost?

~$50-55/MWh

<$45/MWh

~$50/MWh

Location Size of Project PPA Price

Carrizozo,NM

3 MW (operating) <$45/MWh*

Eastern Colorado

2 MW (in development)

~$50-55/MWh (expected)

Central Texas

2 MW (in development)

~$50/MWh (expected)

Nashville,TN

2 MW (Modeled only)

$57/MWh(Modeled only)

~$57/MWh

Solar Resource: kWh/m2/Day>6 5-6 4-5 3-4

Sources: Union of Concerned Scientists, NREL, RMI RFPs, RMI Analysis, NREL System Advisor Model

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0102030405060708090

100

PPA Price Avoided costs

What’s it worth?CSS avoids energy, demand, and other charges

Avoided Energy

Avoided Demand (4CP)

Avoided Other Charges

0102030405060708090

100PPA Cost vs Value (ERCOT, 2018)$/MWh

5057

PPA Cost vs Value 2019-2039

Baseline Inflation

0% InflationPPA

Source: RMI Analysis, RMI RFPs, EIA

$/MWh

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10%

How should I get it?

Third-party support can improve outcomes and reduce staff burden:- Developers can capture tax credits and bring project experience- Buyers representatives can streamline and improve procurement and contracting

5052545658606264

0 10 20 30 40Regional Portfolio Size (MW)

New Mexico Colorado Texas

0102030405060708090

100

10%% Median 90% 10% Median 90% 25% Median 75%

$/MWh

New Mexico Colorado Texas

Competitive Procurement and Demand Aggregation Can Reduces Prices by 30%

Range of PPA Bids: NM, CO, TX (1 MW Project)

Source: RMI RFPs

20%

28%

$/MWh

53

65

83

PPA Bids by Portfolio Size

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Shine is Addressing Barriers to Grow the Community-Scale Solar MarketNew Report

Progress Potential

visit rmi.org/shine

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Big Questions and Key Takeaways• What’s it cost?

• What’s it worth?

• How should I get it?

• Distributed solar costs less than $50/MWh in parts of the country

• Distributed solar avoids energy, transmission, and other costs

• Demand aggregation and competitive procurement reduce prices 30% or more

• What does this mean for co-op strategy?

Thank Youkbrehm@rmi.orghttps://www.rmi.org/shine