LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS PERU PART 4: VOLCANOES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for...
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Transcript of LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS PERU PART 4: VOLCANOES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for...
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
PERUPART 4: VOLCANOES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
VOLCANOES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric-mantle collision-zone interactions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of
movement along faults located in subduction zones
or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and
Iceland).
VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of
movement along faults located in subduction zones
or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and
Iceland).
VOLCANOES
• Peru is located in the heart of the Andean mountain chain, which is an unbroken series of high-mountain peaks that stretch southward from Columbia to Argentina.
VOLCANOES
• Peru has 16 of the “Ring of fire” volcanoes; the most famous being: El Misti volcano, Coropuna volcano, Chachani volcano, Sabancaya volcano, and Ubinas volcano.
• At present, Sabancaya and Ubinas are the most active volcanoes in Peru, producing significant eruptions in 1988-1994 and 2006-2008.
VOLCANOES
• The South American plate exhibits some of the best examples of continental-margin magmatism found anywhere in the world.
SOUTH AMERICAN MOUNTAIN BUILDING
SOUTH AMERICAN VULCANISM
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, ,..) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the community LOSES the functions of its buildings and infrastructure at a time when they are needed most.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKRISK
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKRISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
PERU’S PERU’S COMMUINITIESCOMMUINITIES
PERU’S PERU’S COMMUINITIESCOMMUINITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• VERTICAL PLUME
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
LATERAL BLAST
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
CAUSES OF RISK
CAUSES OF RISK
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVACUATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LAST ERUPTIONS OF PERU’S NOTABLE
VOLCANOES
COROPUNA: 11,000 YEARS AGO
CHACHANI: 11,000 YEARS AGO
EL MISTI: 1784
UBINAS:2006-2008
SABANCAYA: 1988-1994; 2013
PERU’S COROPUNA
PERU’S CHACHANI AND EL MISTI
PERU’S EL MISTI: ASLEEP, BUT A THREAT
PERU’S EL MISTI: APRIL 2007
Ubinas, which had its last significant eruption in 2008,
is Peru’s most active volcano.
PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO: 2006
EVACUATION
• Nearby towns were evacuated during the 2006 eruptions, which killed livestock and caused significant respiratory and eye problems for surrounding residents
PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO
PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO
PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO
LOCATION OF UBINAS VOLCANO
AREQUIPA: AT RISK
AREQUIPA: AT RISK
PERU’S SABANCAYA
Sabancaya is an active 5,976-metre (19,606 ft)
stratovolcano in the Andes of southern Peru, about 100
km (62 mi) northwest of Arequipa.
THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY
• In July 1986, after over 200 years of dormancy, satellites detected an increase in thermal emission, and intense volcanic activity resumed in December.
THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)
• Several eruptive cycles occurred over the next two years (1987-1988), producing a lava dome in the crater.
THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)
• The most sustained period of activity began with explosive eruptions (VEI 3) on May 28, 1990, and continued for over eight years.
THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)
• The eruptive cycle produced more than 25 million cubic meters of lava flows and tephra during that period.
THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)
• At the height of the activity in 1994, eruptions producing large ash clouds occurred every two hours.
THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)
• A small eruption occurred on February 23, 2013.
A SNAPSHOT IN TIME OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY: AUGUST 2009
THE MOST COMMON FLAWS EXPOSED BY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
• UN—PREPARED FOR WHAT HAPPENED
• UN---WARNED; NO EVACUATION• UN---ABLE TO RESPOND
EFFECTIVELY; LIVES LOST
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNITIES
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNITIES
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• HISTORIC DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO
• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• HISTORIC DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO
• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS
UBINAS VOLCANO HAZARD ZONE MAP
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.
SATTELITE MONITORING CAN PROVIDE EARLY WARNING
.
PERU’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLEPERU’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE
• SO, INCLUDE THE BEST POSSIBLE ”WHAT IF” PLANS ABOUT THE NEXT MOST LIKELY ERUPTION